Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already did the 40 & Over 4.0 Men, now the 4.0 Women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 25%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.92 / 3.77
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.88 / 3.78
Favorites: PNW, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Middlestates, Midwest

Have a chance: Hawaii, NorCal, SoCal, Southern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 5

There are three favorites, but the two of the three contenders are very close behind, and a fair number have a chance.  A full 10 teams have a better than 18% chance of making the semis.

There are four teams with a better than 21% chance of going 4-0 so that record will probably happen, but four more with a better than 12% chance, so this should be competitive.

Just two teams have a better than 15% chance of winning it all, and interestingly one of the projected semi-finalists is only 7th most likely to win it all.  That is what happens when a team has an easier schedule, so they are likely to make the semis, but on paper isn't as strong as the other teams, so not as likely to win it all despite making the semis in more of the iterations than some other teams.  The favorite to win it all?  Texas.

What do you think?  Will Texas win it?