Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

It is that time of year!  We are into week 2 of USTA League Nationals for 2026, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already did the 40 & Over 4.0 Men and 4.0 Women, now the 4.5 Men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 94% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.44 / 4.15
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.37 / 4.25
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, NorCal
Contenders: Midwest, Middle States, Texas

Have a chance: Caribbean, SoCal, Southern

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

Teams with >20% of winning it all: 2

There are three favorites to make the semis by a pretty good margin, but a pretty big group behind trying to get that 4th spot.  There is a good chance there could be five teams tied at 3-1.

No team has a best chance of going 4-0, but the favorites are all at about 40% or higher so it is likely at least one does it.

Just two teams have a better than 10% chance of winning it all, and both of those at about 30+%.  Interestingly neither of those has the best chance at making the semis, that team has the easiest schedule giving them that best chance, but they won't be favored over the other two in the semis or final.  The team with the best chance of winning?  Florida.

What do you think?  Will Florida win it?