I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly. There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer. Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.
Why do these simulations you ask? The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents. This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used. The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen. Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.
Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words. Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order. The strengths are based on played averages. Contact me if you want to learn more.
Here is the 55 & Over 9.0 Women.
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.29 / 4.20
Favorites: Florida, PNW, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, NorCal, Texas
Smaller flight with just 14, so smaller chances of a lot of undefeated teams, and perhaps a chance (7%) of a 2-2 team making the semis.
Of the three favorites, two have a good chance of taking it all, and of those, Southern is the favorite.
What do you think? Will Southern win it?
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