Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 1 Update

It is a busy weekend with three events (six if you count each gender individually) going on in Oklahoma City and Arizona.  Here is a quick summary how how day one went and what may happen today.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women have five 2-0 teams but the updated simulation says only a 2% chance of even four remaining so.  Texas, Intermountain, SoCal, and Eastern now most likely to advance with Middle States and Florida lurking.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men also have five 2-0 teams and here the updated simulation has just a 3% chance of four finishing that way.  Texas, Southern, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic are most likely to advance with Intermountain knocking on the door.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women also have five 2-0 teams, this updated simulation saying there is no chance of even four remaining so with a 40% chance of just three.  NorCal, Midwest, Southern, and Florida are most likely but Texas, Eastern, and Caribbean have a shot.

In a recurring theme, the 40 & Over 4.0 men have five at 2-0, this updated simulation says only very slim chance of four remaining so.  Southern, Texas, Mid-Atlantic, Hawaii, Midwest, and Middle States all in a dog-fight for four spots.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women have only three 2-0 teams so there will be some standings tie-breakers deciding semi-finalists.  The simulation now says three teams very likely to advance in Southern, Florida, and SoCal, with NorCal and Mid-Atlantic vying for the last spot.  PNW plays Southern and NorCal though so could make some noise.

Last, the 18 & Over 4.5 men have six 2-0 teams, and the simulation says there is a real, albeit just 2%, chance of five ending 4-0.  A nice and neat four 4-0 teams is more likely at 15%.  NorCal, Midwest, Southern, and Eastern are most likely to advance right now, but look out for Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, and Texas.

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