Saturday, October 1, 2022

2022 USTA League Nationals 18 & Over 3.5 Men day 1 update - A chance of five 4-0 teams

After day 1 of the 18 & Over 3.5 men's event, there are seven teams that are undefeated (Intermountain, Southern, SoCal, PNW, Hawaii, Eastern, and Middle States), and there is a real chance, greater than 4%, that five teams end up all 4-0 for four spots.  The simulation said it was possible, but the chance of it happening has gone up.

A good way to see it is by visualizing the schedule and results.  In the diagram below, the teams in green diamonds are 2-0, the yellow boxes are 1-1, and black circles are 0-2.  The solid arrows point to the team that won a match yesterday and the dotted lines are to be played matches.

We can see that of the undefeated teams, we can see that Southern Cal and Eastern play, and Intermountain and Hawaii play.  So two of the 2-0 teams will end up with a loss, but that leaves the possibility the other five go 4-0.

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