Monday, October 4, 2021

Results from the first weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The first weekend of Nationals is in the books and there were tight matches, some expected results, and some surprises as well.  And I'm pleased to say two teams I did reports for made the semis!  Well done teams.

Here is a summary of who won and how my simulations and previews did predicting things in the first 18 & Over events.

The 3.0 women had New England, Southern, and Intermountain all advance with 4-0 records, and Midwest beat out PNW and Mid-Atlantic on the tie-breakers for the last spot with a 3-1 record.  These four were all in the top-5 of who the simulation projected would advance, so nearly nailed this one.  New England won their semi over Midwest 3-2 and Intermountain won theirs 4-1, and then New England won the final 3-2, four matches went to match tie-breaks, to become the champs.

The 3.0 men had Caribbean, Intermountain, Southern, and Pacific Northwest all advance as 4-0 teams, no one losing more than three courts.  Intermountain, Caribbean, and Southern were expected to be there all being in my top-5 to advance, but PNW surprised a bit moving up from a projected 8th.  PNW and Intermountain faced off in the final after 3-2 wins where Intermountain took the title winning 5-0.

The 3.5 women also had four 4-0 teams advance in Intermountain, Florida, Southern Cal, and Missouri Valley advance.  Three of these were in my top-4 and SoCal was expected to be in the 6-way tie at 3-1 for 2nd/3rd so again nearly nailed it.  Intermountain and Florida faced off in the final after 4-1 wins, where Florida won 4-1 to take the title.

The 3.5 men had a 6-way tie for 2nd thru 7th, just Midwest advancing with a 4-0 record, and Southwest, Missouri Valley, and Mid-Atlantic won the courts tie-breakers to advance.  Three of these teams were in the simulation's top-6, Southwest stepped up from a projected 8th to make the semis, so again a pretty good showing with the predictions.  The final had Midwest face off against Southwest where Midwest won 4-1 for the title.

The 5.0 women had Texas and Mid-Atlantic at 4-0 and Intermountain and Missouri Valley at 3-1 all advance.  All four of these teams were in the simulation's top-6, so another good showing.  Texas and Mid-Atlantic faced off in the final where Mid-Atlantic took it 3-0.

The 5.0 men had Southern advance with a 4-0 record, then Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northern California advanced out of the 4-way tie at 3-1.  Three of these were all in the simulation's top-5 so again nearly nailed it.  NorCal and Mid-Atlantic played in the final where Mid-Atlantic won 2-1.

Congratulations to all who advanced and played, and especially those that came out on top.

And I'm please to see the simulations do so well predicting things with every team that advanced being projected to be 6th or better except for one and that was 8th.

Another weekend of Nationals is coming up, stay tuned for more previews and predictions.

3 comments:

  1. what was the prediction on pnw 3.5 men's team?

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    1. Not 3-1! Had they made the semis that would have been a big miss for my simulation.

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