Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.0 level is being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 women.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 17
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 4%
Tie for 4th: 86%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 21%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 27%, 2 teams 66%, 3 teams 28%
Easiest schedule: 3.89
Toughest schedule: 3.97
Likely semi-finalists: Northern, New England, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Midwest, PNW, Middle States, Hawaii

Fourth place has a good chance of requiring a 3-1 record, and the group at 2-2 do have a shot at getting to 3-1.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

How is the 40 & Over 4-court format going to work at 2021 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend brings the first 40 & Over event at 2021 Nationals, which will be the first Nationals event since the division was changed to a 4-court format, so I thought it would be good to have a refresher on how it all works.

As a reminder, the USTA changed 40 & Over to a 4-court format for 2020, and there was, and still is, much angst over it, primarily because of the problems it causes in determining a match winner, but also because it removed a playing spot (7 players required for a match instead of 8) and singles playing opportunity.  In any case, we have the format for now, and this will be the first time it is used at Nationals since none were held in 2020.

When you have four courts, there is no longer always a clear winner based on court wins as you can have 2-2 ties.  At one point, the regulations allowed for unbroken ties, but that was fixed finally, but it is still good to understand how it all works.

Various sections handled 40 & Over differently.  Some elected to change to a Points Per Position format instead of team wins for standings, others elected to have the winner of court 1 doubles be the tie-breaker, but the standard rule and what will be used at Nationals as is follows.

Should a match end in a 2-2 tie, the first tie-breaker is sets lost, the loser of the fewest getting the team win.

If the teams lost the same number of sets, then it goes to games lost, again the loser of the fewest games getting the win.

If the teams are still tied, then the regulations call for using game winning percentage next, but this is pointless since if both teams are tied on games lost, they both won the same number of games and GWP is 50% for both teams.  Duh.

If things remain tied, then as the last tie-breaker the winner of court 1 doubles gets the win.  Note, this last tie-breaker was missing in the original 2020 regulations and it was possible for there to be team matches without a documented way to determine a winner!

This is all understandable, but it does mean it is not simple to know who won.  Every set and game counts, and should it come to it, court 1 doubles matters even more.  IMHO, I still think 4 courts for Nationals there a team match winner must be decided is a bad idea.

But what could happen as a result?  There could be some strange standings.

Take for example a team that has three strong players that play singles and one of the doubles courts.  These players could win their courts while their teammates lose every other court and the team matches are all 2-2.  If the strong players win easily and/or the other lost courts are close enough, the team would win each of these 2-2 matches and go 4-0 in round-robin despite a court record of 8-8.  If another team won three matches 4-0 and then happened to "lose" 2-2, they would be 3-1 with a court record of 14-2 and potentially not make the semis, losing out to other 4-0 teams including the one that is 8-8 on courts.

Or, a team could win three 2-2 matches and lose their other match 4-0 leading to a 3-1 record and 6-10 on courts.  Another could win two matches 4-0 then lose two 2-2 matches going 2-2 with a court record of 12-4.  If the competition is very close like my simulation of 40 & Over 4.0 men this weekend says it could be, the team that won only 6 courts over 4 matches could beat out a 2-2 team that won 12 courts for a semi-final position.

Are either of these scenarios wrong?  Not necessarily, but they certainly change the dynamic of how a team can advance.

What do you think?  Will the 4-court format make for more drama and excitement?  Or is it not the most equitable way to determine team match winners and ultimately who advances to the semis?

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the 18 & Over 4.5 level is being played in Surprise, AZ.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.5 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 15 (Hawaii was listed but now isn't)
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: <1%
Tie for 4th: 76%
Size of tie: 4 - 31%, 5 - 24%, 3 - 19%, in theory could be 12!
Sets tie-breaker: 24%, 2 teams 68%, 3 teams 27%
Easiest schedule: 4.42
Toughest schedule: 4.49
Likely semi-finalists: SoCal, Florida, MoValley, Mid-Atlantic
Contenders: PNW, Eastern, NorCal, Texas, New England, Midwest, Southwest, Intermountain, Southern

Like the 40 & Over 4.0 men, there could be a huge tie at 2-2 for the last semi-final spot with 13 of the 15 teams having a better than 20% chance of making the semis.  Realistically, just 9 have 30+% chance, and 5 have a 40+% chance.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2021 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

As I did in 2018 and 2019, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the two years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

We now enter the second weekend of Nationals, and the first 40 & Over event takes place with the 4.0 level being played in Oklahoma City.  Here is what is likely to happen for the 4.0 men.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

Teams: 16
5+ undefeated: <1%
4 undefeated: 1.3%
Tie for 4th: 84%
Size of tie: 4 - 29%, 5 - 26%, 3 - 17%, in theory could be 13!
Sets tie-breaker: 29%, 2 teams 63%, 3 teams 30%
Easiest schedule: 3.95
Toughest schedule: 4.01
Likely semi-finalists: Texas, Middle States, Mid-Atlantic, PNW
Contenders: Midwest, New England, Northern, Southern, NorCal, Eastern, MoValley, Southwest

I was intending to change format to the above summary format to save myself typing, but this one deserves some words as a full 12 teams have a 20% or better chance of making the semis!  And the simulation says 4th could be a 9-way tie at 2-2.  Now, 16 teams "most likely" record never happens exactly as the simulation says so chances are one of those 2-2 teams steps up to get to 3-1, but this could be one of the closest competitions we've seen with this format at Nationals.

Note, for 40 & Over I use top-10 average ratings for each team since 7 players play vs top-11 averages for 18 & Over, and if I use top-11, five teams are projected to be 3-1 with that record becoming slightly more likely than 2-2, so it is really close and will depend on how many players teams play and how players play in a given match.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Results from the first weekend of 2021 USTA League Nationals - How did the predictions do?

The first weekend of Nationals is in the books and there were tight matches, some expected results, and some surprises as well.  And I'm pleased to say two teams I did reports for made the semis!  Well done teams.

Here is a summary of who won and how my simulations and previews did predicting things in the first 18 & Over events.

The 3.0 women had New England, Southern, and Intermountain all advance with 4-0 records, and Midwest beat out PNW and Mid-Atlantic on the tie-breakers for the last spot with a 3-1 record.  These four were all in the top-5 of who the simulation projected would advance, so nearly nailed this one.  New England won their semi over Midwest 3-2 and Intermountain won theirs 4-1, and then New England won the final 3-2, four matches went to match tie-breaks, to become the champs.

The 3.0 men had Caribbean, Intermountain, Southern, and Pacific Northwest all advance as 4-0 teams, no one losing more than three courts.  Intermountain, Caribbean, and Southern were expected to be there all being in my top-5 to advance, but PNW surprised a bit moving up from a projected 8th.  PNW and Intermountain faced off in the final after 3-2 wins where Intermountain took the title winning 5-0.

The 3.5 women also had four 4-0 teams advance in Intermountain, Florida, Southern Cal, and Missouri Valley advance.  Three of these were in my top-4 and SoCal was expected to be in the 6-way tie at 3-1 for 2nd/3rd so again nearly nailed it.  Intermountain and Florida faced off in the final after 4-1 wins, where Florida won 4-1 to take the title.

The 3.5 men had a 6-way tie for 2nd thru 7th, just Midwest advancing with a 4-0 record, and Southwest, Missouri Valley, and Mid-Atlantic won the courts tie-breakers to advance.  Three of these teams were in the simulation's top-6, Southwest stepped up from a projected 8th to make the semis, so again a pretty good showing with the predictions.  The final had Midwest face off against Southwest where Midwest won 4-1 for the title.

The 5.0 women had Texas and Mid-Atlantic at 4-0 and Intermountain and Missouri Valley at 3-1 all advance.  All four of these teams were in the simulation's top-6, so another good showing.  Texas and Mid-Atlantic faced off in the final where Mid-Atlantic took it 3-0.

The 5.0 men had Southern advance with a 4-0 record, then Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northern California advanced out of the 4-way tie at 3-1.  Three of these were all in the simulation's top-5 so again nearly nailed it.  NorCal and Mid-Atlantic played in the final where Mid-Atlantic won 2-1.

Congratulations to all who advanced and played, and especially those that came out on top.

And I'm please to see the simulations do so well predicting things with every team that advanced being projected to be 6th or better except for one and that was 8th.

Another weekend of Nationals is coming up, stay tuned for more previews and predictions.

Update after day 1 of 2021 USTA League Nationals

Day 1 of this year's Nationals are in the books, and here are some notes and observations.

For the 3.0 women, I didn't get a simulation published, but a 6-way tie at 3-1 was projected with New England, Southern, Midwest, MoValley, Intermountain, and PNW, and after one day just MoValley under-performed going 0-2, and now New England, Intermountain, and Southern are projected to go 4-0 with a 3-way tie at 3-1 with PNW, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic vying for the spot.

The 3.0 men had Texas, Intermountain, NorCal, Carribean, and Southern all at 3-1 or better, and after day 1, the list has expanded to be Caribbean, Southern, Intermountain, PNW, Texas, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic.  This one could be a tie-breaker fest.

The 3.5 women had eight teams at 3-1 or better, now it is seven with a 4-way tie at 3-1 with NorCal, MoValley, Midwest, and Socal.

The 3.5 men had seven teams projected at 3-1 or better, now there are five in MoValley, Florida, Midwest, Southwest, and Southern.

The 5.0 women had five teams projected at 3-1 or better and there are still five, but Texas has moved into the group replacing NorCal, joining Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, MoValley, and PNW.

The 5.0 men had five teams projected to be tied at 3-1, but now the projection has NorCal slipping out of the 3-1 group with PNW, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern remaining.

2021 USTA League Nationals starts today! Time to check the weather forecast

Today is the first day of the 2021 USTA League Nationals.  The 18 & Over division start things off with the 3.0 men and women in Oklahoma City, the 3.5 men and women in Surprise, AZ, and the 5.0 men and women in Phoenix.

As I write this Friday morning, matches should be underway in Oklahoma City, but oddly TennisLink does not yet show the schedule in the "Match Summary" tab.  The other levels do have the full schedules on TennisLink.  The PDF schedule for all has been available for awhile.  I'm sure they will get it fixed, but I wonder if there will be delays in posting results for the 3.0 event? [see update below]

I will be monitoring what goes on and will likely write about anything odd or interesting that comes up.

But something that is always interesting is the weather and its potential impact on play.

OKC's forecast is a little iffy, with thunderstorms moving in late today and rain lingering tomorrow morning, but otherwise appears to be ok.  Let's hope they get matches in today and there aren't delays tomorrow morning.

The Arizona weather is near perfect, if not slightly warm as highs will be in the low 90s with no chance of rain.

Good luck to all!

Update: The schedules for the 3.0 level are now on TennisLink.