Breaking News: 18 & Over Mixed Nationals going to short sets due to weather

I wrote a few days ago that the weather forecast for Mobile for this weekend's 18 & Over Mixed Nationals didn't look good for Friday,  an 80% chance of thunderstorms, and the current forecast still calls for scattered thunderstorms and 60% chance of precipitation.

Looking closer, the hourly forecast says a 40-60% chance of rain nearly all day which might make it difficult to get many matches in as any gaps in the rain may allow the courts to dry, right before it starts to rain again.

I'm guessing as a result of this forecast, I'm hearing that the USTA is preemptively going to a shorter scoring format from the start to get as many matches in as possible on Friday, and then be able to catch up on Saturday if needed.

I have not heard specifics, but I'm guessing it will be a format like what was done in Arlington using a modified Fast 4 with sets to 4 with no-ad, a set tie-break at 4-4, and either a set tie-break at 3-3 or just first to 4, and a match tie-break for the third set, perhaps just to 7 points instead of 10.

It is unfortunate it comes to this, I really was hoping the forecast would improve and the rain would clear out sooner, but this is perhaps the best that can be done given the site selection.

I will post more or update this as I learn more.

Update: Sets 1 and 2 will have a standard set tie-break at 4-4.  Here is the text sent to captains in an e-mail:

We will be playing best two out of three short sets with NO AD scoring and a 10 point coman tiebreak rotation if teams split sets. Teams will play to the first to 4, win by 2. If the set reaches 4-4 teams will play a 7 point coman tiebreak.

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 10.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

What is unique about this level is that there are just 9 teams attending so this doesn't have the same dynamics the larger events do.  Each team will play half of the potential opponents rather than just a quarter.

Given there are fewer teams, there is no chance of four undefeated, let alone more than that.  There is also less chance of large ties, just a 27% chance of a tie for 4th, although when it happens it will be between three teams 61% of the time.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Texas - 99%
• Southern Cal - 99%
• Northern Cal - 97%
• Intermountain - 90%

Those four teams separate themselves by a clear margin, but just the top two teams have a most likely record of 4-0.  Just one team, Florida, has a most likely record of 2-2 behind these, but the simulation says New England has a similar chance at making the semis.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, Texas would be favored over Intermountain and SoCal over NorCal, with Texas the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 7.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is continuing my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 7.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

First, there is just a 0.2% chance of five teams finishing undefeated, so it is possible an undefeated team is sent home, but doubt it will happen here.  There is a 7% chance of four 4-0 teams though.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Pacific Northwest - 95%
• Texas - 94%
• Florida - 86%
• Northern Cal - 81%

Those four teams separate themselves, and the most likely record for three of them is 4-0, and only NorCal is predicted to be 3-1.  Behind them is a 6-way tie at 2-2, so it is certainly possible another team jumps up to 3-1 and we have the tie-breakers come into play.  The teams most likely to do that are Southern Cal, Southern, Midwest, Hawaii, and Eastern, with New England, a long shot.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, PNW would be favored over NorCal and Texas over Florida, with Texas the pick in the final.

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

Simulating/Predicting the 2018 USTA League Nationals semi-finalists and champion - 18 & Over Mixed 9.0

I've written about my simulations of the new format for USTA League Nationals, and hinted at who some favorites are, but now it is time to actually use the simulations to predict who the semi-finalists will be and of those, who the favorite to win it all is.

This is the first of my simulations for Mixed, and because Mixed are combination leagues, it doesn't make sense to use a small number for the top average as that would unfairly give an advantage to teams with a lot of uneven pairs.  Also, some teams have players that play just Mixed and so don't have Adult ratings.  Thus, I'm using the top-16 average for each team using my estimated ratings, plus I'm using the Mixed ratings I can calculate rather than the normal Adult ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.

Here is the 18 & Over Mixed 9.0 that is coming up this weekend in Mobile, AL.

First, there is just a 0.5% chance of five teams finishing undefeated, so it is possible an undefeated team is sent home, but doubt it will happen here.  There is a 6% chance of four 4-0 teams though.

The teams with the best chance to finish in at least a tie for 4th are:

• Southern Cal - 94%
• Southern - 94%
• Texas - 79%
• Mid-Atlantic - 71%

Those four teams separate themselves, but the most likely record for the last two is 3-1, and behind them is a 5-way tie at 2-2, so it is certainly possible another team jumps up to 3-1 and we have the tie-breakers come into play.  The teams most likely to do that are Northern, Intermountain and NorCal with Middle States a long shot.

If the four teams predicted make the semis, SoCal would be favored over Mid-Atlantic and Southern over Texas, with SoCal the pick in the final

If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups.  While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help.  Contact me if interested in any reports.

USTA League 18 & Over Mixed Nationals in Mobile this weekend - Gotta check the weather

USTA League Nationals gets going again this weekend with the first Mixed Nationals, these in the 18 & Over division with all levels, 6.0 thru 10.0, being played in Mobile.

Having a Nationals in Mobile makes us have to do the requisite weather check, and while Mobile avoided weather a few weeks ago for 40 & Over 3.0, the forecast is a little iffy four days away from the event.

Here is the forecast for this weekend.

That 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms on Friday isn't encouraging, but it is better than the forecast the three days prior!

Let's hope the storm passes through quickly and clears out in time to get full matches played.

What will help a bit is no event has the full 17 sections attending so that reduces the number of matches to be played.  Still, with 5 events, there are 71 teams that have to play 4 matches each which is 142 team matches, or 426 courts.

Here is hoping they get it all in!

No USTA League Nationals this weekend, but Mixed Nationals the following two weekends

We had a flurry of Nationals all four weekends in October, but we get a break this weekend before 2018 Nationals wraps up with 18 & Over Mixed next weekend in Mobile, and 40 & Over Mixed the following weekend in Orlando.

The new format for Nationals has gotten a lot of positive feedback and now we get to see how it will work for Mixed.  One thing that is different for Mixed from most of the others is just three courts are played, vs five courts for nearly all the Adult Nationals.  Just three courts can make for closer team scoring, so it might make for closer standings and more tie-breakers being used to determine who advances.

For those headed to Mixed Nationals, I can do reports to help you scout and prepare just like I did for Adult Nationals.  And I'm pleased to say that a number of teams that got reports did make the semis, and there were even two that won it all.  My reports don't guarantee success, but they can help you maximize your chances.  Contact me if interested.

USTA Mid-Atlantic to build a new facility and headquarters in Virginia

This is sort of old news, the USTA release on the topic was earlier this year, but I just saw a new headline pop up about it and I hadn't written about it, so here goes!

We know Mid-Atlantic has a very popular USTA League population with the opportunity for players to play in multiple areas and districts given the close proximity of Maryland/Virginia/D.C. and the counties in each state, and the USTA cites growth among all participation of over 9% since 2012.

The site for the facility is in Prince William County and will provide indoor and outdoor courts and be the new headquarters for Section staff.  Construction of the $15 million project is expected to kickoff in 2020 and by completed by 2022.

Note: The original post mistakenly said Maryland in the subject, thanks to a reader for pointing out the correction.