Day one update on Florida Mixed Sectionals - Still a great chance of an undefeated team being sent home

I wrote yesterday about the potential for an unflighted round-robin fiasco at Florida Mixed Sectionals, and then added a diagram showing the issue this morning.  After day one, the worst case scenario has already been averted, but we aren't out of the woods yet.

In today's matches in the 9.0 flight, each of Miami, Hills, Sarasota, and Broward all won, but Alachua lost 2-1 to Orange when there was an upset on one court.  So there are four 2-0 teams, and none of them play each other tomorrow.  But we won't have five 4-0 teams.

Here again is the visual description of the schedule.

So you can see the four 2-0 teams are all in the bottom row (the row I said was the "good" pod) and none of them play each other.

My simulation now says there is a 16% chance all four teams go 2-0 tomorrow and finish 4-0, and there is a 39% chance three teams do so, together that means there is a 55% chance three or more teams finish 4-0 and one of them doesn't advance and is sent home.

Now, there is a 45% chance it doesn't happen as well, but that is lower than it was at the start of the event.

In a way, I hope it doesn't happen as it really wouldn't be fair to the teams that are sent home.  But then I'm hoping teams lose which seems wrong.

On the other hand, if it does happen it will help highlight the issues with the format and hopefully educate folks on when not to use it, or how to use it correctly.