Analyzing 2021 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Section bump rates by gender

2021 year-end ratings have been published, and my analysis continues.

I looked at some high level bump stats earlier, now we start to take a deeper dive, first looking at bump rates by section by gender.

Here are the overall bump stats by section.

Here we see remarkably consistent bump rates across all the sections.  Bump down rates range from 4.4% in PNW to 7.6% in Southern and bump up range from 8.6% in NorCal to 11.3% in Caribbean.  This is not nearly as large a range as in most years (here is 2019) and would seem to indicate the USTA didn't do much of any adjusting.

In fact, the sections that did well at Nationals weren't even hit that hard with bump ups which is surprising.  How on earth does Southern, that cleaned up at Nationals across genders and divisions, have among the fewest bump ups and most bump downs?  While PNW that did very little at Nationals has among the most bump ups and fewest bump downs?

Moving on to look at each gender.  Here is the same chart for the women.

Here we see Caribbean and Missouri Valley with the most bump ups, Hawaii and Northern having the fewest, and Southwest and Intermountain the most bump downs and several sections with less than 5% bump downs.

And here is the men's chart.

In what seems way out of whack, Southern and Texas had more men bumped down than up!  And Northern on the other hand led in bump up percentage which may be a first.

The Southern anomaly may be in part a reaction and adjustment to the Great Southern Bump of 2019, but that still is very strange considering how Southern did at Nationals.

While there are not radical changes, there do seem to be a few oddities for sure.  What do you think?