Why do these simulations you ask? The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents. This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used. The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen. Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.
Nationals get started just four days from the writing of this preview, the 18 & Over 3.5 women's event being held in Surprise Arizona. Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen.
As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.
First, with 17 teams playing a random four opponents, it will always be possible for there to be five (or more) undefeated teams. Thankfully, with the schedule in place my simulation says the worst it would be is five undefeated, and there is only a 0.3% chance of an undefeated team being sent home.
There is a 12% chance of four teams being undefeated though, and that would be a nice clean result with no angst or controversy over tie-breaks and who is the most deserving to advance. And there is a 40% chance that there are three undefeated teams.
That leaves a very good chance, 82%, that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers. That tie could be two teams at 4-0 (but just the 0.3% chance of that) but more likely 3-1. The most likely size of the tie is three at 32%, but there is a 28% chance of a four team tie, 17% of two teams, and 15% chance of five teams. The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but an 11-way tie is theoretically possible.
Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won. There is a 20% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 77% chance that is between two teams but a 21% chance it is between three teams.
The schedule strengths do vary a lot, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.52 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.63. That can clearly lead to an easier road for some teams than others, in fact the two strongest teams got two of the easier schedules.
So who is most likely to come out in the top-4? Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Eastern, and Texas head the list, Mid-Atlantic being the ever so slight overall favorite. New England is very close though and Florida, Midwest, Intermountain, Northern, and Southern Cal are all lurking and could be right there with an upset win.
For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare. I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team. I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together. Contact me if interested in any of these reports.
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