Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 6.0 Women

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 6.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.13 / 2.84

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.04 / 2.90

Favorites: Midwest, SoCal
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, PNW, Southern, Southwest

The schedule strengths vary a bit, but this has a big group of contenders so should be very competitive.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and as you might expect, 55+ isn't too bad.  Texas is the highest at 4 / 0.44 with three self-rates and one appeal.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 8.0 Women

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 8.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.03 / 3.74

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.94 / 3.86

Favorites: Hawaii, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, NorCal

This is one of the fairer schedules as the toughest to easiest is covered by just 0.08.  That leads to there being a lot of contenders.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and as you might expect, 55+ isn't too bad, in fact the women are quite low.  Mid-Atlantic is the highest at 3 / 0.25.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 55 & Over 8.0 Men

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 55 & Over 8.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 26%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 8%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 86% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.26 / 3.75

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.09 / 3.88

Favorites: Florida, New England, SoCal, Texas
Contenders: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley

There is a wide range based on the team strengths, but that is in part because some teams are all 4.0s while others have quite a few 4.5s.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and as you might expect, 55+ isn't too bad.  One team has five self-rates, some others three, but the highest score is just 0.41 and the rest are 0.36 and below.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.09 / 3.85

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.06 / 3.76

Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Middle States, SoCal, Southern

There doesn't appear to be anything too remarkable, the top-5 teams have most likely records of 3-1, but two of them are nearly as likely (>40%) to go 4-0.  Still it appears it will be very competitive.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there are two big scores.  Texas is the highest at 13 / 1.3 due to 9 (!) self-rates and Caribbean at 15 / 1.1 has six self-rates and three that have held a higher C rating.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.0 Women

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 3.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.15 / 2.90

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.11 / 2.97

Favorites: SoCal, Texas
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Missouri Valley, NorCal

Only two teams stand out, then there is a big group of contenders.  A full six teams have a better than 10% chance of going 4-0, and with 2-2 ties being broken, it should be exciting.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there are a few big scores.  Midwest has the highest score at 14 / 0.88 due to six that have held C ratings over 3.0 and three self-rates.  Other notables are SoCal (9 / 0.60) with five self-rates, and Middle States (12 / 0.55) with 11 that self-rated or held ratings higher than 3.0 in the past.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.09 / 3.85

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.06 / 3.94

Favorites: Florida, Middle States, NorCal, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, SoCal, Hawaii

The simulation likes the top-5 teams, but not as much as the 40+ 3.0 men.  In fact, the most likely records results in six teams all at 3-1 vying for the four spots.  But all five of the six have a better than 22% chance of going 4-0 so it is likely one of them does.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there are quite a few big scores.  Texas (yes, from Houston) leads with a total of 20 and score of 1.11, on par with the questionable 3.5 teams from Houston that already won Nationals.  The difference here is Southern is at 20 / 1.0, Southwest at 15 / 0.94, and Hawaii at 13 / 0.87.  All of these teams have a number of self-rates and at least six players who have been 4.5 or higher before.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & over 3.0 Men

The fourth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 3.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: 38%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 16%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 61% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.19 / 2.97

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.14 / 3.05

Favorites: Middle States, NorCal, PNW, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic?

The simulation likes the top-5 teams, and that is about it.  And they don't play each other so there is a real chance of five undefeated teams at 16%.  I think that is the highest I've ever seen it.  The five teams are strong, but also generally got the easiest schedules of all the teams.

I've also started looking at my Shenanigans Score, to see if there is any questionable roster construction, and there are a few big scores.  Southern has a total of 18 and a score of 0.97, not as high as the questionable Texas teams but close.  They have a full 10 players who have held C ratings over 3.0 in the past, plus three appeals and a self-rate.  SoCal isn't far back at 12 / 0.75 and Hawaii, Midwest, Texas, Middle States, and Caribbean are all in the 0.6s.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.