Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (no Hawaii)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 16%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.77 / 3.44

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.64 / 3.51

Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Middle States

Big ranges on team strengths and schedule strengths, leads to a pretty top-heavy set of favorites/contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 6.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 6.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 18%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.26 / 2.97

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.17 / 3.02

Favorites: Eastern, Middle States, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Northern, Southern

This simulation is a bit top-heavy, just a total of six teams as favorites or contenders.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

The seventh and last week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 8.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.06 / 3.85

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.85

Favorites: Caribbean, Florida, Middle States
Contenders: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Missouri Valley, PNW, SoCal

Looks like a good group vying for the last spot.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 6 Recap - Only two new National Champs

Week 6 of USTA League Nationals is over, and only two new champions were crowned on the least busy weekend of Nationals this year.  Next weekend Nationals wrap up with four Mixed events in Orlando and San Diego.

You can see prior recaps here.

The 40 & Over 7.0 saw NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic in one semi 2-1, while Eastern beat Florida 3-0 in the other (but every match in a super tie-break!), before NorCal won the final 2-1, one of the won courts in a super tie-break.  Close!

The 9.0 level saw Texas beat New England 2-1 and PNW beat Midwest 3-0, and then PNW won the final 3-0, all in straight sets.

Congratulations to the new champs!

What ties did we have for week 6 of 2023 USTA League Nationals?

This weekend's Nationals round-robin is complete so we can take a look at who has made the semis and what ties there were.  This weekend was a light one with just the 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed going on.

For the 7.0 level, there were four 2-0 teams after day one, but just two ended up 4-0, NorCal who didn't even drop a court, and Florida.  There were four 3-1 teams behind them and Eastern and Mid-Atlantic took the last two semi-finalist spots with better court records than Missouri Valley and Middle States.  Florida and NorCal were the top-2 picks to make the semis, and Mid-Atlantic and Eastern were 5th and 7th most likely, so the simulation did pretty well.

At 9.0, it was even more competitive with a bunch of 1-1 teams after day one, and the top-6 teams all being  3-1.  New England, PNW, and Midwest had the three best court records, and then Texas took the 4th spot being tied on court record at 8-4 but losing fewer sets than Southern.  All four of the semi-finalists were in the simulation's contenders.

Good luck the semis tomorrow!

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 7.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 7.0 mixed.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 12%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 5

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.43

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.61 / 3.49

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Eastern, Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed

The sixth week of 2023 USTA League Nationals is upon us, and with that, the simulations continue.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 40 & Over 9.0 mixed.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.54 / 4.19

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.42 / 4.26

Favorites: Florida
Contenders: Hawaii, Intermountain, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England, NorCal, PNW, SoCal

On paper, very competitive with not that many expected to be undefeated and a large group of contenders and just one favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.