Preliminary week 2 NFL ratings and rankings

Each NFL week is a bit frustrating from a rankings standpoint as there is a slew of games on Sunday, one Sunday night, and then we have to wait 24 hours for the week to complete and I can product the weekly ratings and rankings from my computer.  So I compute preliminary ratings to see what has changed and thought I'd share those this week.

So with one game yet to play, here are how things look.

The Patriots stay #1 over now #2 Green Bay and #3 Jets.  Baltimore drops a bunch of points but just 2 spots to #4 and Detroit continues to surprise moving to #5 followed by another surprise in Houston.  New Orleans is the big mover of the week righting the ship at the expense of Chicago just behind them.

Seattle brings up the rear nearly 3 points behind disappointing Kansas City.  The Monday night game is not stellar on paper, #27 vs #30, but should hopefully be competitive, but one of the teams will come out 0-2 and also take on the disappointing moniker.

Also, preliminary week 2 season projections appear below.  No real surprise with New England, Baltimore, and Green Bay at 12-4 or better, but see Houston now also projected to finish 12-4.  In the NFC the West winner may not have a losing record this year, and the wildcards could both come from the North.  The AFC West winner could match the NFC at just 8-8 though with the South and East potentially getting the wildcards.

Presently, in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes race, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Seattle are in a dead heat.  Seattle clearly needs him and Carolina already has their QB, but would Indianapolis take him if they had the pick?  If Peyton is nearing the end, could be a fortuitous set of events and QB succession for the Colts.

After the game tonight, the full week 2 ratings and rankings as well as projections will be posted.  And be sure to follow @computerratings on Twitter.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	92.091	2-0	80.534	+0, +0.637
2	Green Bay	88.914	2-0	79.815	+1, -0.573
3	NY Jets	87.731	2-0	78.451	+2, +1.899
4	Baltimore	87.225	1-1	82.207	-2, -3.769
5	Detroit	87.171	2-0	76.359	+2, +2.605
6	Houston	86.901	2-0	75.754	+2, +2.806
7	New Orleans	86.722	1-1	87.321	+5, +4.079
8	Chicago	85.727	1-1	83.850	-4, -2.310
9	Buffalo	84.321	2-0	77.052	+2, +1.207
10	Philadelphia	84.187	1-1	79.898	-4, -1.302
11	Dallas	84.053	1-1	86.568	+4, +2.386
12	Tennessee	83.825	1-1	83.038	+9, +4.364
13	San Diego	82.616	1-1	84.712	-3, -0.682
14	Cincinnati	82.201	1-1	79.675	+0, +0.097
15	Washington	81.785	2-0	73.640	-2, -0.480
16	Oakland	81.752	1-1	83.335	+2, +1.476
17	Atlanta	80.979	1-1	84.957	-1, -0.669
18	Pittsburgh	80.589	1-1	78.566	-9, -2.791
19	Tampa Bay	80.366	1-1	82.252	+3, +0.934
20	San Francisco	79.405	1-1	73.980	+0, -0.316
21	Jacksonville	78.850	1-1	85.778	+2, -0.131
22	Miami	78.453	0-2	86.496	-5, -1.912
23	Minnesota	77.333	0-2	81.491	-4, -2.456
24	Cleveland	77.000	1-1	77.628	+2, +0.243
25	Arizona	76.957	1-1	77.346	+5, +3.392
26	Denver	76.349	1-1	78.977	+3, +2.399
27	NY Giants	76.322	0-1	84.785	-3, -2.569
28	Indianapolis	73.055	0-2	81.950	-3, -4.947
29	Carolina	72.907	0-2	82.936	+3, +2.242
30	St Louis	72.817	0-1	81.187	-2, -1.907
31	Kansas City	72.352	0-2	85.746	-4, -3.227
32	Seattle	69.907	0-2	82.997	-1, -3.416

Preliminary week 2 season projections:

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New England	13-3	24.4	17.1	23.2
Baltimore	12-4	26.2	20.4	22.0
Green Bay	12-4	24.2	22.8	17.9
Houston	12-4	23.8	17.5	22.3
New Orleans	11-5	24.2	21.9	18.8
Detroit	11-5	23.5	20.7	19.1
NY Jets	11-5	23.1	18.8	20.4
Chicago	10-6	23.8	19.4	20.6
Dallas	10-6	22.4	16.5	21.8
Tennessee	10-6	21.7	15.9	21.6
Cincinnati	9-7	23.3	21.3	18.1
Philadelphia	9-7	21.9	20.7	17.2
Washington	9-7	21.7	21.0	16.6
Buffalo	9-7	21.6	21.0	16.5
Atlanta	8-8	23.0	21.4	17.7
San Francisco	8-8	22.8	18.8	20.1
Pittsburgh	8-8	22.3	20.3	18.0
Oakland	8-8	22.1	19.1	18.9
Tampa Bay	8-8	22.0	16.2	21.8
San Diego	8-8	21.9	20.9	16.9
Jacksonville	7-9	22.1	19.6	18.4
Arizona	7-9	21.8	21.6	16.0
Cleveland	6-10	23.0	22.1	16.9
Denver	6-10	22.4	16.6	22.0
Minnesota	5-11	23.3	18.6	20.9
Miami	5-11	22.5	20.9	17.6
NY Giants	5-11	22.3	21.0	17.3
Kansas City	4-12	24.1	18.5	22.2
St Louis	4-12	23.6	21.5	18.2
Carolina	3-13	26.5	21.1	21.8
Indianapolis	3-13	26.3	24.5	17.6
Seattle	3-13	24.2	23.2	16.9

College Football Week 3 Season Projections

With three games under most teams belts, the computer can now make more accurate projections for the season and there are some interesting projected records.  See the full list here.

In something of a surprise, Florida International is projected to finish the season undefeated after their win over Central Florida.  LSU and Boise State are also projected to complete perfect regular seasons.  There are 7 teams behind these 3 projected to lose just once, and 5 of those have a better than 27% chance of going undefeated so anything could happen.  Note that #1 in the polls Oklahoma is not one of them with just a 14.9% chance of going undefeated.

Why is Florida International projected to go undefeated when they are ranked only #39?  Simply put, a very weak schedule.  Of their 9 remaining opponents, only one, Louisiana-Lafayette at 2-1, doesn't have a losing record and the highest ranked team on their schedule is 0-2 Troy at #72.  They've already played their 2 toughest opponents in #44 Central Florida and #61 Louisville.  If they pull it off, I don't think anyone will be lobbying to get into the BCS.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Florida Int'l	12-0	70.1	0.0	27.6
Boise St	12-0	65.2	0.0	29.4
LSU	12-0	57.8	0.0	41.1
Wisconsin	11-1	40.9	40.6	15.4
Stanford	11-1	42.6	35.8	18.0
Alabama	11-1	56.8	35.4	7.4
Ohio U.	11-1	42.4	27.5	23.3
South Florida	11-1	41.1	27.1	23.9
Oklahoma St	11-1	36.5	17.0	30.6
Oklahoma	11-1	39.0	14.9	31.5

College Football Week 3 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The computer is always handicapped a bit early in the season to try to adapt to how teams have changed from last year, but after 3 games we can begin to get a clearer picture of where the teams really rate.

LSU remains #1, but the gap has shrunk, even though it is still sizable at nearly 3 points over now #2 Stanford.  They along with Boise State and Alabama leap frog Oklahoma even though Oklahoma's rating improved nearly a point.  Oklahoma State's late win jumps them to #6 and Wisconsin is next at #7.

One-loss teams Oregon and TCU are next then a slew of other undefeated teams, the biggest movers in the top-25 being Clemson, Georgia Tech, Utah, and San Diego State.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	90.242	3-0	68.674	+0, -2.074
2	Stanford	87.460	3-0	63.693	+4, +3.526
3	Boise St	86.771	2-0	72.873	+1, +1.158
4	Alabama	86.602	3-0	56.168	+1, +2.399
5	Oklahoma	86.423	2-0	73.460	-2, +0.760
6	Oklahoma St	85.699	3-0	65.824	+1, +2.006
7	Wisconsin	85.677	3-0	63.053	+2, +4.539
8	Oregon	84.116	2-1	69.308	-6, -2.855
9	TCU	81.159	2-1	69.554	-1, -0.853
10	Texas A&M	80.111	2-0	58.601	+1, +0.451
11	West Virginia	78.657	3-0	58.620	+12, +3.794
12	Clemson	78.264	3-0	65.019	+28, +7.138
13	South Carolina	77.750	3-0	70.038	-1, -1.606
14	South Florida	77.548	3-0	57.056	+12, +3.437
15	Georgia Tech	77.486	3-0	56.857	+23, +5.604
16	Virginia Tech	77.341	3-0	59.926	-1, -0.711
17	Nebraska	77.289	3-0	60.670	-1, -0.350
18	Florida	77.188	3-0	53.838	+2, +1.530
19	Utah	76.824	2-1	69.692	+26, +5.998
20	Arizona St	76.748	2-1	66.774	-3, -0.660
21	San Diego St	76.492	3-0	63.119	+29, +6.975
22	Florida St	76.322	2-1	57.797	-9, -2.989
23	Southern Cal	76.227	3-0	63.783	+13, +4.303
24	Illinois	75.891	3-0	60.806	-5, -0.867
25	Notre Dame	75.746	1-2	72.691	+12, +3.824

NFL projected records after week 1

With week 1 of the NFL season in the books, the computer can update its projected records for the season. These records are calculated by looking at each game on a teams schedule and the probability of winning it, then looking at all the permutations of how a team could get to each record and identifying the most likely record.  See the full list of projections each week here.

This week Baltimore leads the way with a 14-2 projected record with Green Bay and New England at 12-4.  If New England is #1 this week, why just 12-4 while Baltimore is 2 games better?  It all comes down to schedule.  Baltimore has already won one of their tough games against the Steelers, and has a second place schedule and gets to play the weak NFC West.  New England still has to play the Jets twice, has a first place schedule, and has to play the stronger NFC East.

Presently the playoff teams from the NFC would be Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, with Chicago and Detroit the wildcards.  In the AFC it woud be Baltimore, New England, Houston, San Diego, and the Jets and Cincinnati the wildcards, Pittsburgh getting left out.

Week 1 NFL Ratings Posted - New England #1

The NFL ratings after week 1 are now posted here.

New England stays #1 but Baltimore is the new #2 after their impressive win.  Green Bay slips a spot and Chicago moves up replacing the Jets at #4.

At the bottom, Carolina holds on to the bottom spot but Seattle drops 2 spots getting closer.

It is still very early and 1 game, particularly for a team like the Steelers who will likely play better than they did, doesn't tell the whole story, but the early ratings are still interesting.

And I generally don't recommend using the early season projections for the very reason that things are unstable, but using last years ratings for week 1 the computer went 11-5 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners while Vegas went 8-7 picking winners.  A good start!

The NFL season begins

With a full slate of games, the NFL season has begun today.  First week ratings will be out Monday night, but if you are interested in how your team may finish the season, take a look at the pre-season projected records.

The projected records use the rating for each team from last year, but this seasons schedule.  With the lockout and varied degrees of practice and significant changes to rosters, it is likely this year could be more turbulent than others so these projections are likely off, but it is still interesting to look at.

Enjoy!

2011 college football ratings are up

The early season ratings are usually not very accurate, but are still interesting nonetheless.  Given that, the NCAA college football ratings through week 2 (9/10) are now posted here.

Along with that, the projected records for all FBS teams using the week 2 ratings is here.

With just one or two games played by most teams, there is limited data to base the ratings on, but at this point, LSU's week 1 win over Oregon has them a far and away #1.  The polls have Oklahoma #1 and my computer has them #3.  There will be big changes from week to week early in the season so never fear if your favorite team isn't ranked where you think they should be.

And LSU is one of two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated, along with Boise State.  Virginia Tech, Central Florida, Stanford, and Oklahoma are projected to have just 1 loss and decent shots of finishing undefeated too, and with the probable big changes in ratings the next few weeks we could see changes in the projections too.

Enjoy!