In something of a surprise, Florida International is projected to finish the season undefeated after their win over Central Florida. LSU and Boise State are also projected to complete perfect regular seasons. There are 7 teams behind these 3 projected to lose just once, and 5 of those have a better than 27% chance of going undefeated so anything could happen. Note that #1 in the polls Oklahoma is not one of them with just a 14.9% chance of going undefeated.
Why is Florida International projected to go undefeated when they are ranked only #39? Simply put, a very weak schedule. Of their 9 remaining opponents, only one, Louisiana-Lafayette at 2-1, doesn't have a losing record and the highest ranked team on their schedule is 0-2 Troy at #72. They've already played their 2 toughest opponents in #44 Central Florida and #61 Louisville. If they pull it off, I don't think anyone will be lobbying to get into the BCS.
The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Florida Int'l | 12-0 | 70.1 | 0.0 | 27.6 |
| Boise St | 12-0 | 65.2 | 0.0 | 29.4 |
| LSU | 12-0 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 41.1 |
| Wisconsin | 11-1 | 40.9 | 40.6 | 15.4 |
| Stanford | 11-1 | 42.6 | 35.8 | 18.0 |
| Alabama | 11-1 | 56.8 | 35.4 | 7.4 |
| Ohio U. | 11-1 | 42.4 | 27.5 | 23.3 |
| South Florida | 11-1 | 41.1 | 27.1 | 23.9 |
| Oklahoma St | 11-1 | 36.5 | 17.0 | 30.6 |
| Oklahoma | 11-1 | 39.0 | 14.9 | 31.5 |
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