2009 Week 10 College Football Preview

Week 10 has already started and the computer is doing ok going 3-2 against the spread in the games thus far nailing Bowling Green and East Carolina (off by a total of 1.5 points) and also getting Louisiana Tech, and has done great picking winners going 5-0 while the Vegas line has gone 4-1.  Last weeks highlighted games went 3-2 against the spread getting Iowa, Cincinnati, and Oregon (the lock of the week) and missing on Georgia and Oklahoma State.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

It isn't quite what it used to be, but this years Oklahoma vs Nebraska game should be a competitive one.  The Vegas line is OU by 6 but the computer says that is too much picking them by 2.9.  Interestingly there is only one way they are separated by 2 degrees and that is through Baylor so perhaps not a strong pick, but the computer is 5-3 for Nebraska and 5-2 for OU picking against the spread so perhaps it does have them positioned correctly.

Oregon, coming off their big win over USC visits Stanford and they are better than many think as my computer has them #23, but the computer really likes Oregon too and picks them by 7 versus the 5 point spread.

As is often the case, Notre Dame has a huge fan base driving the line up and it has reached 13 over Navy, but the computer picks them by only 6.  While they are not separated by 2 games at all, the computer has picked right in Notre Dame games 6 out of 8 and Navy games 7 out of 9.

In a game one might have thought would decide the Big Televen but now appears may decide #2, Ohio State visits Penn State as 3.5 point underdogs but the computer says that isn't enough picking Penn State by 5.3.  However, the computer has been picking Penn State games well (6-3) but not Ohio State (3-6) so who knows.

And in the big game of the week that could go a long ways to deciding who goes to the BCS title game, LSU visits Alabama as a 7 point underdog, but even with Alabama falling out of the #1 spot last week the computer still likes them by 9.8.  Interestingly they are not separated by 2 games at all and the computer is 4-4 in picking each teams games.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.

Picking against Colin, errr Fisch

Those that follow Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio know that he does his Sizzlin' Seven picks each Friday.  I like to see how my computer measures up so I've gone back to see how the computer did in the same games and have also sent my picks in to him the past 3 weeks.  No response yet, but perhaps that is because for the year the computer is ahead!

Here is how the results have compared this year:

• Week 1 - 3-4 (Colin was 2-5)
• Week 2 - 4-3 (3-4)
• Week 3 - 2-5 (5-2)
• Week 4 - 6-1 (4-3)
  
• Week 5 - 4-3 (2-5)
• Week 6 - 4-3 (2-5)
• Week 7 - 4-3 (3-4)
• Week 8 - 3-4 (3-4)
• Week 9 - 4-3 (4-3, note these were Fisch's picks)
• Totals - 34-29 (28-35)

This weeks picks are:

• Falcons -9.5 - Agree on the pick, Atlanta should blow them out.
• Packers -10 - Agree again, but not a blowout at all, computer picks Green Bay by 10.8.
• Chargers +5 - Agree again, this can't be right!  Still picks the Giants to win by 1.2 though.
• Dallas +3 - Finally, don't agree!  Philly, but only by 1.4.
• Virginia +13.5 - Computer picks Miami by 11.8.
• Duke +10 - Computer picks UNC by only 3.8.
• Penn State -4.5 - Computer likes them by 5.3.

We'll see if the computer can extend its lead!

2009 Week 10 College Football Predictions

I posted this weeks picks yesterday morning, and also tweeted the pick for last night (follow @computerratings for more rapid updates and info than you'll get here) and am pleased to say the computer is off to a good start by nailing the game.

The Vegas line was Buffalo by 3.5 but the computer picked the upset having Bowling Green by 1.6.  The final score?  30-29 Bowling Green so the computer got the trifecta of the win, pick against the spread, and a correct upset pick.

Here's hoping that continues.  After an ok and good week the past two weeks, a great week would be fantastic.  See the newsletter for more details.

2009 Week 8 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 8 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans remains projected to finish undefeated but at a slightly lower chance than last week which is a bit odd.  This is due to most of their future opponents improving slightly this past week and Atlanta, who they have to play again on the road, showing they could play with them.  In fact, they are nearly projected to have 1-loss as that has a 41.7% chance and undefeated is at 43%.

There is now a pack behind them at 13-3, the surprise to me being that Indianapolis is listed there.  They are 7-0 now which means the computer projects a 6-3 finish for them.  But with New England, @Baltimore, @Houston, and Denver still on the schedule, you can see how one might reach that conclusion.  Note that 14-2 is only slightly behind 13-3 at 26.5% compared to 28%.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, and one of Arizona or San Francisco, along with wildcards being Atlanta and Philadelphia.

For reference, last year at this time in the AFC the projections included all 6 playoff teams as either in or tied for the last spot while in the NFC, 3 of the 6 playoff teams were picked at this point.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New Orleans	16-0	43.0	0.0	41.7
Indianapolis	13-3	28.1	26.5	18.3
Denver	13-3	34.4	24.0	24.1
Minnesota	13-3	32.0	22.3	24.7
Cincinnati	11-5	29.4	19.8	25.3
Dallas	11-5	31.1	19.6	26.6
Atlanta	10-6	31.0	27.6	19.1
Pittsburgh	10-6	28.5	25.7	18.9
Baltimore	10-6	28.8	24.5	20.6
New England	10-6	27.5	24.1	19.8
Philadelphia	10-6	26.9	18.9	24.5
Arizona	9-7	26.9	26.3	17.0
Houston	9-7	29.5	24.5	20.9
San Diego	9-7	29.8	23.9	21.6
Green Bay	9-7	28.4	22.0	22.4
NY Giants	9-7	29.3	20.4	24.9
San Francisco	9-7	28.0	19.8	24.2
NY Jets	9-7	30.4	19.3	26.5
Chicago	9-7	27.2	18.7	24.8
Miami	9-7	26.3	16.2	26.2
Jacksonville	6-10	26.6	25.6	17.0
Buffalo	6-10	28.7	24.3	20.4
Seattle	6-10	28.1	23.8	20.3
Carolina	5-11	33.1	29.6	16.7
Oakland	5-11	31.6	19.3	27.7
Tennessee	5-11	26.4	17.6	25.4
Cleveland	4-12	29.8	23.3	22.3
Kansas City	3-13	33.3	22.7	25.3
St Louis	3-13	32.4	20.8	27.4
Washington	2-14	43.2	40.6	0.0
Detroit	2-14	35.6	30.3	16.6
Tampa Bay	0-16	44.8	39.0	0.0

2009 Week 8 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 8 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted in a few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And then there were 2.  Denver's run of beating the odds finally came to an end as they ran in to a very good Baltimore team.  That leaves New Orleans and Indianapolis as the undefeateds and as you might expect they are #1 and #2 in the rankings.  What may be a surprise is that Baltimore's taking down Denver launched them into the #3 spot.  We'll see in the upcoming weeks if the computer's opinion is well founded as they go to #7 Cincinnati next week and host Indianapolis in 3 weeks.

Philadelphia also moved up 7 spots after walloping the Giants while the big loser in the rankings this week is Arizona falling all the way to #19 after losing at home to a 3-4 and not great Carolina team.

After several very good weeks, the computer stunk it up this week going 4-9 against the spread.  An indication of how the week went was last night New Orleans had the 9.5 covered and then couldn't just kneel on the ground giving up a field goal to lose that game for the computer.  Bad weeks happen, that just means a good week must be around the corner.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	94.893	7-0	80.596	+0, -0.390
2	Indianapolis	89.376	7-0	79.013	+0, -2.002
3	Baltimore	88.512	4-3	82.198	+6, +3.223
4	Denver	88.477	6-1	83.194	-1, -2.843
5	New England	87.803	5-2	80.689	-1, +0.421
6	Minnesota	86.735	7-1	80.400	+4, +1.571
7	Cincinnati	86.276	5-2	83.088	-1, -0.177
8	Atlanta	85.921	4-3	85.449	+3, +1.286
9	Dallas	85.622	5-2	78.109	+4, +1.400
10	Pittsburgh	85.376	5-2	79.286	-2, +0.071
11	NY Jets	84.250	4-4	82.928	-4, -1.156
12	Miami	84.236	3-4	85.245	+3, +0.993
13	Philadelphia	84.069	5-2	76.338	+7, +3.720
14	San Francisco	83.470	3-4	82.572	+0, +0.109
15	Houston	83.017	5-3	80.153	+3, +0.743
16	Green Bay	82.462	4-3	79.145	-4, -1.815
17	San Diego	82.434	4-3	80.631	+2, +0.211
18	Chicago	82.354	4-3	80.551	-1, +0.045
19	Arizona	81.904	4-3	80.480	-14, -4.738
20	NY Giants	80.673	5-3	79.691	-4, -2.207
21	Buffalo	78.595	3-5	81.761	+0, -1.120
22	Seattle	76.978	2-5	80.982	+0, -2.476
23	Carolina	76.763	3-4	79.660	+5, +5.265
24	Tennessee	76.355	1-6	83.569	+1, +1.591
25	Jacksonville	76.081	3-4	79.722	-2, -3.211
26	Cleveland	74.419	1-7	85.598	-2, -1.272
27	Oakland	74.291	2-6	82.199	-1, +0.304
28	Kansas City	72.238	1-6	80.343	+1, +0.826
29	St Louis	71.070	1-7	80.041	+1, +0.983
30	Washington	69.799	2-5	74.278	+1, +1.228
31	Detroit	69.426	1-6	81.384	-4, -2.345
32	Tampa Bay	68.711	0-7	80.475	+0, +1.529

College Week 9 Complete, NFL Week 8 Nearly So

With Central Florida's comeback win over Marshall last night, week 9 is now officially complete.  I've posted updated rankings and projections but they didn't change that much.  The reason they didn't change much is that the computer nearly nailed the pick having picked Marshall by 0.5 meaning it got the pick right against the spread making it 35-19 for week 9, easily the best week of the year.

Unfortunately in the NFL things didn't go so well.  After three consecutive good to great weeks (10-4, 8-5-1, and 10-3), the computer has come crashing down thus far with a 4-8 record.  The computer picked a number of close games but we had quite a few blowouts.  At least there was no lock pick this week so that record stays an outstanding 7-1 and the overall record is still a stellar 69-44-2.

Tonight the computer does not pick a close game having New Orleans by by 13.6.  With my luck this week, that just means this one will be close.

2009 Week 9 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 9 (games played thru 31-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the Marshall at Central Florida game will be included in week 9 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

I posted a preview of the rankings last night and as expected not much changed with the remainder of the FCS games being included, so read that for a summary of what happened in the top-10.

The same 7 teams remain undefeated and the season projections forecast that 6 of them will finish that way, the line team to falter being Iowa.  But even they have a 46.5% chance of finishing unblemished.  Alabama's big test will come next week against LSU but many of the other teams don't have a big test remaining, thus the high percentage chances of staying perfect.

The computer had a great week going 34-19 against the spread and the one lock of the week, Oregon plus the points over USC came through big time.  The computer also picked more winners than Vegas going 40-13 vs the Vegas 38-15.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Florida	89.277	8-0	71.267	+1, +0.728
2	Texas	88.867	8-0	69.428	+4, +2.436
3	Alabama	88.527	8-0	70.367	-2, -2.193
4	Oregon	87.857	7-1	73.484	+3, +1.853
5	Cincinnati	87.257	8-0	66.471	-2, -0.305
6	Boise St	86.664	8-0	65.381	-2, -0.699
7	TCU	86.317	8-0	68.199	-2, -0.922
8	Oklahoma	82.347	5-3	67.984	+2, -1.507
9	LSU	81.756	7-1	68.873	+4, +0.264
10	Virginia Tech	81.633	5-3	75.485	-2, -3.224
11	Georgia Tech	81.597	8-1	72.878	+1, -0.554
12	Southern Cal	81.522	6-2	74.125	-3, -2.698
13	Clemson	81.272	5-3	70.510	+1, -0.037
14	Iowa	80.765	9-0	70.409	-3, -1.751
15	Penn State	80.215	8-1	64.576	+0, -0.775
16	Pittsburgh	79.621	7-1	67.599	+2, +0.528
17	Tennessee	79.597	4-4	71.409	+7, +1.324
18	Arizona	79.364	5-2	73.204	-2, -1.303
19	Texas Tech	79.167	6-3	66.143	+9, +2.541
20	Miami FL	78.910	6-2	73.582	-3, -1.528
21	California	78.395	6-2	70.911	-2, -0.499
22	Ohio State	77.959	7-2	65.580	-2, -0.683
23	Stanford	77.873	5-3	70.685	-1, -0.572
24	Oklahoma St	77.403	6-2	67.034	-1, -0.920
25	Oregon St	77.385	5-3	71.525	+0, -0.762
26	Arkansas	77.297	4-4	72.602	+0, -0.541
27	Utah	76.996	7-1	67.326	+0, -0.665
28	Nebraska	76.464	5-3	68.078	+2, +0.043
29	Auburn	76.340	6-3	71.552	+7, +1.306
30	Boston College	76.073	6-3	69.390	+9, +1.361
31	Mississippi	75.739	5-3	68.591	-10, -2.794
32	South Florida	75.483	6-2	63.824	+13, +1.781
33	Houston	75.020	7-1	64.988	+2, -0.118
34	Notre Dame	74.385	6-2	68.861	-1, -1.509
35	Brigham Young	74.255	6-2	68.283	+2, -0.729
36	Fresno St	74.246	5-3	67.365	-5, -2.091
37	UCLA	74.090	3-5	76.896	+4, -0.243
38	Georgia	74.006	4-4	76.754	+2, -0.686
39	West Virginia	73.797	6-2	66.924	-1, -1.070
40	Florida St	73.658	4-4	72.504	+3, -0.275
41	Texas A&M	73.607	5-3	67.781	+17, +2.836
42	Rutgers	73.549	6-2	60.507	+14, +2.230
43	Wisconsin	73.545	6-2	67.968	+6, +0.430
44	Mississippi St	73.484	4-5	70.949	+13, +2.203
45	Kentucky	73.333	4-4	71.894	-13, -2.787
46	Air Force	73.231	5-4	64.880	+5, +0.916
47	Connecticut	72.925	4-4	67.729	-5, -1.404
48	South Carolina	72.825	6-3	70.742	-14, -2.441
49	Washington	72.793	3-5	76.698	-2, -0.775
50	Central Michigan	72.689	7-2	63.181	-21, -3.843
51	North Carolina	72.301	5-3	67.830	+12, +2.851
52	Missouri	72.229	5-3	68.795	+7, +1.557
53	Wake Forest	72.175	4-5	70.853	+2, +0.505
54	Duke	71.533	5-3	64.952	+8, +1.821
55	Arizona St	71.451	4-4	66.220	-1, -0.488
56	Kansas	71.379	5-3	67.035	-10, -2.263
57	Navy	71.361	6-3	65.440	-4, -0.699
58	Michigan St	71.289	4-5	68.638	-10, -2.215
59	Iowa St	71.057	5-4	67.949	-15, -2.764
60	Minnesota	70.672	5-4	71.621	+0, +0.411
61	Kansas St	70.144	5-4	67.559	+0, +0.141
62	Temple	70.133	6-2	63.409	+3, +0.915
63	Virginia	70.128	3-5	71.596	-11, -2.091
64	Troy	70.074	6-2	65.059	+2, +1.229
65	Nevada	68.181	5-3	64.766	+2, -0.277
66	Northern Illinois	67.889	5-3	60.259	-2, -1.437
67	Marshall	67.479	5-3	66.095	+3, -0.367
68	North Carolina St	67.325	3-5	65.842	+9, +1.293
69	Southern Miss	66.937	5-4	61.600	+3, -0.197
70	Michigan	66.616	5-4	64.719	-20, -5.817
71	SMU	66.612	4-4	68.289	+14, +2.335
72	East Carolina	66.548	5-3	64.021	+11, +1.919
73	Purdue	66.362	3-6	69.877	-5, -1.850
74	Baylor	66.333	3-5	68.947	-3, -1.318
75	Bowling Green	66.134	3-5	69.094	+0, -0.455
76	Ohio U.	65.674	6-3	62.765	-3, -1.321
77	Louisville	65.610	3-5	69.504	+2, +0.216
78	Idaho	65.380	7-2	64.076	-4, -1.508
79	Middle Tennessee St	65.142	5-3	63.905	+11, +1.377
80	San Diego St	64.556	4-4	64.201	-4, -1.887
81	Maryland	64.460	2-6	71.251	+8, +0.679
82	Utah St	64.306	2-6	68.916	+15, +1.686
83	Indiana	64.033	4-5	65.836	-2, -0.800
84	Louisiana Tech	64.019	3-5	62.438	+9, +0.878
85	Kent St	64.004	5-4	61.766	+6, +0.264
86	Arkansas St	63.965	2-5	62.752	-6, -1.368
87	Central Florida	63.651	4-3	60.119	-3, -0.683
88	Illinois	63.576	2-6	68.731	+16, +3.657
89	Syracuse	63.570	3-5	67.897	+6, +0.501
90	Tulsa	63.558	4-4	61.924	-21, -4.341
91	Colorado St	63.362	3-6	69.818	-13, -2.305
92	Northwestern	63.020	5-4	61.921	+0, -0.688
93	Alabama-Birmingham	62.612	3-5	66.675	+9, +1.836
94	Wyoming	62.172	4-4	66.513	+5, +0.183
95	Colorado	61.997	2-6	70.118	-9, -2.242
96	Western Michigan	61.986	4-5	63.485	-14, -2.837
97	Louisiana-Monroe	61.829	4-4	66.669	-9, -2.047
98	Buffalo	61.453	3-5	63.741	-4, -1.620
99	Vanderbilt	61.422	2-7	66.604	+1, -0.264
100	UTEP	61.279	3-5	65.661	-13, -2.857
101	San Jose St	61.170	1-6	74.786	-5, -1.547
102	UNLV	60.902	3-6	66.823	+1, +0.392
103	Florida Atlantic	60.402	2-5	64.864	-5, -1.800
104	Hawaii	59.549	2-6	66.829	+1, -0.286
105	Toledo	58.991	4-5	63.474	-4, -2.056
106	Army	57.515	3-5	62.428	+1, +0.258
107	Washington St	57.055	1-7	74.706	+1, -0.042
108	North Texas	56.775	2-6	62.767	+1, +0.025
109	Miami OH	56.262	1-8	70.535	+2, +0.321
110	Memphis	56.239	2-6	63.105	-4, -1.966
111	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.841	4-4	60.673	-1, -0.727
112	Florida Int'l	54.737	2-6	65.163	+0, -0.713
113	Akron	54.417	1-7	65.235	+0, -0.953
114	Ball St	53.944	1-8	62.707	+1, +0.440
115	Tulane	53.818	2-6	66.906	-1, -0.484
116	New Mexico St	52.161	3-6	63.271	+0, +0.110
117	Eastern Michigan	49.972	0-8	65.652	+0, -0.077
118	New Mexico	49.264	0-8	66.169	+0, +2.258
119	Rice	45.677	0-8	68.215	+0, -0.466
120	Western Kentucky	42.533	0-8	64.266	+0, -1.044