How accurate are Dynamic NTRP ratings at predicting tennis matches? 2022 edition - Interesting League Stats

It has been awhile since I took a look at how accurate my Estimated Dynamic Ratings are at predicting match results so I thought I'd take a look at how they did in 2022.

As a reminder, if you are interested in getting a detailed report using my ratings, see this post.

For this analysis, I'm looking at all matches played in 2022 in the 18 & Over, 40 & over, and 55 & Over divisions.  Unlike before, I'm going to slice the data a few different ways.

Note, these are my dynamic ratings, that largely mirror what the USTA does with their ratings but are not the USTA's ratings, so any accuracy or claims regarding predicting matches is for my ratings and not the USTA's.

First, here are the winning percentages by the higher rated player/pair across all the divisions for all matches, and then broken down by the difference between the ratings as well as singles and doubles.

Rating Gap	Overall	Singles	Doubles
Overall	72%	73%	72%
<= 0.05	54%	53%	54%
0.05 - 0.15	66%	64%	66%
0.15 - 0.25	79%	76%	80%
0.25 - 0.35	88%	85%	89%
0.35 - 0.45	93%	89%	94%
> 0.45	96%	94%	97%

These percentages are remarkably consistent with the past analysis I did.  The matches between closely rated players are close to 50/50 but the higher rated player/pair does win a little more often.  As the gap grows, the higher rated player/pair wins increasingly often.

Interestingly, the doubles percentages are generally slightly higher.  Perhaps that is due to more players on the court making it less likely that one player being really on or off has as much effect.

Taking a look at just the 18 & Over division:

Rating Gap	Overall	Singles	Doubles
Overall	73%	73%	72%
<= 0.05	54%	53%	54%
0.05 - 0.15	66%	63%	66%
0.15 - 0.25	79%	76%	80%
0.25 - 0.35	87%	85%	89%
0.35 - 0.45	92%	89%	94%
> 0.45	96%	95%	97%

These percentages are nearly identical to the overall, which makes sense since 18 & Over is the largest division and most matches.

Then just the 40 & Over division:

Rating Gap	Overall	Singles	Doubles
Overall	72%	73%	72%
<= 0.05	54%	54%	54%
0.05 - 0.15	66%	65%	66%
0.15 - 0.25	80%	76%	80%
0.25 - 0.35	88%	85%	89%
0.35 - 0.45	93%	90%	94%
> 0.45	96%	94%	97%

Very similar percentages here too, just slightly higher at the larger gaps.

And last, just the 55 & Over division:

Rating Gap	Overall
Overall	72%
<= 0.05	54%
0.05 - 0.15	66%
0.15 - 0.25	81%
0.25 - 0.35	91%
0.35 - 0.45	95%
> 0.45	98%

This division is doubles only, and these percentages are basically the same as the doubles stats for the other divisions.

So it appears the ratings predict match results very consistently regardless of division, which should be the case for a good rating system.  So perhaps my ratings are sound and a good rating system!

What do you think?