Here is the same table from 2014 with the 2015 percentages thus far added in.
Winning % | ||
---|---|---|
Gap | 2014 | 2015 |
0.00 - 0.05 | 53% | 53% |
0.05 - 0.15 | 63% | 62% |
0.15 - 0.25 | 75% | 73% |
0.25 - 0.35 | 84% | 83% |
0.35 - 0.45 | 90% | 89% |
0.45 - 0.55 | 93% | 93% |
0.55 - 0.65 | 95% | 94% |
0.65 - 0.75 | 96% | 96% |
We can see that there are no major changes, but 2015 is a hundredth or two lower nearly across the board. My guess is the reason is that the USTA made some significant adjustments at year-end last year, mostly bump ups, so some players may have ratings that are perhaps a little inflated which has reduced the winning percentages accordingly early in the year while the algorithm attempts to adjust players back to where they should be.
What do you think? I'll try to update this later in the year.
What do you think? I'll try to update this later in the year.
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