Thursday, June 9, 2022

The USTA sends their e-mail about the WTN launch

About a month ago, the USTA sent out a bevy of e-mails about the forthcoming World Tennis Number (WTN).  Between May 10 and 13, I received no fewer than five e-mails, with several more in the subsequent couple of weeks.  Then things went silent, and in that quiet WTN's showed up on player's profiles yesterday with no e-mail announcement.

I speculated that an e-mail announcement was forthcoming, and sure enough at 7:58 AM today there it was in my inbox.  No real info in the e-mail other than a link to "See Yours Now" which navigates to your profile on usta.com.

I have not had a chance to do a detailed analysis yet, but initial observations and what I'm hearing is that for many people their WTNs are in the ballpark of what might be expected, but there are a handful of surprises where a doubles or singles WTN is remarkably higher or lower that it perhaps should be, and generally speaking, given that WTN is purported to be gender neutral, there are some female players who have a WTN that is perhaps better than you'd think compared with male players.

Here are a few examples, although I will caveat this with the statement that these are some handpicked examples from what I've seen and certainly don't represent what is happening across the board.

Some interesting gender comparisons:

  • 4.5C male with a 21.0 WTNd
  • 4.0C female with a 19.7 WTNd
  • 3.5C female with an 18.6 WTNd
  • 5.0C male with a 16.9 WTNd

This has a 3.5 female less than two points away from a 5.0 male, and both a 3.5 and 4.0 female noticeably better than a 4.5 male.  It is certainly possible that NTRP is lagging (all of these were 2021 year-end levels though) or the fact that WTN has separate ratings for singles and doubles makes it more accurate, but these are interesting.

Then some interesting ranges between singles/doubles:

  • 5.0C male with a 5.8 WTNs and 17.8 WTNd
  • 4.5C male with a 12.6 WTNs and 21.0 WTNd
  • 5.0C male with a 9.5 WTNs and 16.2 WTNd
  • 4.5C male with a 13.6 WTNs and 18.7 WTNd
  • 5.0C male with a 7.5 WTNs and a 12.3 WTNd
  • 4.5C male with a 14.0 WTNs and 18.3 WTNd
  • 4.5C male with a 16.7 WTNs and a 21.2 WTNd
  • 4.0C male with a 15.8 WTNs and a 20.2 WTNd
  • 3.0C male with a 17.0 WTNs and 12.0 WTNd
  • 4.5C male with an 18.2 WTNs and a 4.0 WTNd

I ordered these more or less from wildly better doubles WTN to wildly better singles, and there are certainly more where the singles is better, but it isn't always better.  That last one where a 4.5C is a 4.0 WTN in doubles but only an 18.2 in singles is an astonishing range.

It is certainly possible that there are ratings above with very limited results in one discipline or another, but the large ranges are interesting.

What are your observations so far?

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