One might wonder, what is this based on? Why would the USTA bump up a lot more players in one section than another?
The answer is the year-end calculations the USTA does try to level the playing field across all of the sections, so that a 3.5 in Southern California is relatively the same as a 3.5 in New England, or a 4.0 in Southern is relatively the same as a 4.0 in Northern.
A key factor in the year-end calculations is how each section does at Nationals. If one section does really well at Nationals, that is probably an indication that their players are stronger than players in other sections and to level things, more bump ups may be in order. In the past Southern, PNW, Caribbean, and Texas have all been sections to get abnormally high bump up rates, and this generally correlates with how the section did at Nationals.
So who is in line to get the big bump up rates in a month when year-end ratings come out?
Intermountain appears to be a key candidate. Here is how they did at 18 & Over Nationals:
- 18 & Over 2.5 women - semis
- 18 & Over 3.0 women - finals
- 18 & Over 3.0 men - champs
- 18 & Over 3.5 women - finals
- 18 & Over 3.5 men - 8th
- 18 & Over 4.0 women - 14th
- 18 & Over 4.0 men - champs
- 18 & Over 4.5 women - semis
- 18 & Over 4.5 men - 7th
- 18 & Over 5.0 women - semis
- 18 & Over 5.0 men - 8th
In a full 7 out of 11 events Intermountain made at least the semis, made the final 4 times, and won twice.
In 40 & Over, it wasn't as clearly dominant, but in the 8 events there were 2 that made the semis and two others finished 5th.
Who knows what will happen with the USTA dealing with a 2-year rating period, but my guess is Intermountain may get and justify a higher than normal number of bump ups, certainly at several levels.
What do you think?
Now with utr I would think they don’t have to rely so heavily on nationals. It seems the women did well and since they tend to be less inclined to sandbag that is good evidence. But I’m not so sure about the men. I would think if regionals was very competitive but then nationals was easy that is even better evidence.
ReplyDeleteBased on utr comparisons, and results at regionals and nationals, I think the midwest men may be due for some bumps as well.
ReplyDeleteAren't the men's and women's ratings completely separate? Would the intermountain men be effected by great performance of the women?
Yes, the ratings are separate, but the Intermountain men still did fairly well. Not as well as the women though.
DeleteThat's surprising, intermountain seems like a weaker section. But what I've noticed is that almost any area of any section can put together a stellar team for a particular division depending on the year. If a good-to-great team that is usually just being remotely competitive at sectionals or even districts adds just 1-3 ringers, they not only can make nationals but maybe have a chance of winning.
ReplyDelete