Update on 3-strike DQs in 2021 - Interesting Tennis League Stats

About two months ago I wrote about the trends with 3-strike DQs in 2021, in large part because 2021 is a unique year as it is really an extension of 2020 as no year-end ratings were published by the USTA for 2020.  At that time, the DQ rate in 2021 was up about 60% over the same period in 2019.  As more areas are playing, it seemed like a good idea to update the stats.

Through June 1st this year, I show 314 DQs while through the same date in 2019, there were 253.  That is up 24% which is no where close to the 60% we saw earlier, so has the rate of DQs slowed?

As I did last time, it isn't enough to just look at raw DQs, but we need to look at the rate per individual or team.  Since 2020 halted play in March, we can't really compare with it so we'll look at 2019 as I did above with the counts.

In 2021, there have been just over 69K team matches played in 18/40/55 and over leagues, while in 2019 there were just over 91K.  That puts the 2021 DQ rate at 0.45% and in 2019 just 0.28%, which means the rate in 2021 is 63% higher.

In 2021, there have been just over 169K players that have played in 18/40/55 and over leagues, while in 2019 there were just over 221K.  That puts the 2021 DQ rate rate at 0.19% while in 2019 it was just 0.11%, which means the rate in 2021 is 62% higher.

So, the rate continues to be in the 60% range, supporting my hypothesis that one of the issues from not publishing 2020 year-end ratings would be more players out of level, which leads to more DQs.

The good news is the system appears to be working and DQs are happening for those self-rated and appeal players that are now wildly out of level having well over a year to play at their original self-rating or appealed rating.  The bad news is this means there have been more out of level players in league play which has perhaps led to frustrations from players who feel they have to play out of level players.

I obviously still believe it was a mistake to not publish 2020 year-end ratings, but read my earlier blog article to see more details.

What do you think?  Or what is your experience in your area?