Are 3-strike DQs up in 2021 USTA League? Interesting Tennis League Stats

As we slowly make our way through the (hopefully) downhill side of the COVID-19 pandemic, USTA League play is taking place in most sections.  Some areas have mask wearing or other restrictions, while others are just playing as normal.  Regardless, it is good to see play going on.  See my earlier analysis of where play was happening through January.

This also provides an opportunity to look at potential impacts of the pandemic, or decisions the USTA made as result.

First, we can look at matches played.  For this, I'll look at matches between January 1st and March 13th, as the latter date is when the USTA suspended play in 2020.  I will also only look at Adult 18/40/55 for consistency.

In 2020, there were nearly 34K team matches played which was up 4.5% from 2019 when there were just over 32K played.  During the same period in 2021, there have been just over 22K played, a drop of 34%.

This isn't a big surprise, a number of areas delayed starting league play so the match played count would be expected to be lower and I'd think is primarily due to the USTA adhering to local rules regarding competitive sports, especially in those areas where play early in the year is indoors.

Second, we can look at the number of players who have played in the same period.  The counts by year are 126K in 2019, 124K in 2020, and 86K in 2021.  Here there is a 31% drop from 2020 to 2021, basically mirroring the drop in team matches, so no surprise.

Third, we can look at DQs during this same period.  The counts by year are 63 in 2019, 59 in 2020, and 64 in 2021.  This is pretty consistent, so you'd think nothing to be alarmed at, except the 64 in 2021 has been achieved in 34% fewer team matches.  If you look at the rate per team match, DQs are actually up 65%, and the rate per player is up 59%.  This, at least to me, is alarming.

Why the significant increase?  Has something gone haywire with the self-rate guidelines or questionnaire or how TennisLink spits out the minimum self-rate level?  Are more players lying when answering the questionnaire and self-rating too low?  Are players not managing their rating effectively anymore?  Has the USTA tightened up the strike thresholds?

While any of the above could contribute, I don't think any of those are a significant factor, or a factor at all.  Instead, I'd offer that what I wrote about last Fall was likely to happen simply is happening.

Last Fall, the USTA made the decision to not publish 2020 year-end ratings.  I saw a number of potential issues with this decision, one of those being there would be a lot more self-rated players, and many of those would be out of level.  It would appear that some of those that are way out of level are simply having this recognized via 3-strike DQ, specifically a rate 59% higher than the prior year.

You might say, 64 DQs is a small number and not a big deal, but for there to be this large an increase in the DQ rate, there is likely a similar increase in the number of self-rated players that are out of level and just not DQ'd yet.  These players get to continue to play at too low a level which isn't terribly fair to the at-level players that are required to play them.  And this doesn't even count all the C-rated players who should have been bumped up (or down) and are playing at the wrong level in 2021 and aren't subject to DQ.  My earlier estimates of put the number of players playing at too low a level at 15K, which is not insignificant and to me at least, is a big deal.

The solution was obviously to publish 2020 year-end ratings, at least for self-rates that had played enough, but the USTA didn't do that and so we are stuck with what we have.

Note that through the end of March, the number of DQs has already gone up from 64 to 120, so the rate increase was not a early blip and is continuing.  Stay tuned as I continue to monitor this.

But these are all just numbers.  What are you observing in your area?  Are you seeing more DQs than normal?  Is there a disparity in the ability within levels regardless of S-rated or C-rated?  Is the lack of 2020 year-end ratings having a detrimental effect on USTA League play?