Monday, January 13, 2020

SoCal is at it again - 18 team random round-robin with only 3 matches per team

The Southern California section of the USTA has a local doubles league in the Fall that culminates in Sectionals near the beginning of the new year.  I came across the planned schedule for the event to be played January 24-26 and noticed that while most of the levels have standard flights, the 4.0 women's event has 18 teams playing a flightless random round-robin.

For those following along, you know that Nationals has used the format the past couple years with generally 17 teams each playing 4 matches against randomly selected opponents.  The top-4 in the standings advance on to the semis.   The format has worked reasonably well, but with 17 teams and 4 matches per team does have the possibility of 5 (or more) undefeated teams resulting in a team without a loss not advancing.  It also shines the light on the standings tie-breaker shortcomings in deciding who advances when there is a tie, which is usually very likely.

The format has been used by some sections for various levels of playoffs too.  NorCal made the mistake of using it for Districts last year where a 4.0 mens team went undefeated and did not advance to Sectionals when the format was used with 22 teams each playing just 3 matches.  Southern Cal had planned to use the format for Tri-Level Sectionals with 13 teams each playing only 2 matches, but were bailed out when several teams didn't show up.

Now, the format can work, but it must be used with the right ratio of teams to matches.  Nationals with 17 teams and 4 matches is stretching it, what NorCal did with 22 teams and 3 matches was just egregious, and the plan for SoCal to use it for their upcoming Sectionals looks questionable too as they have 18 teams each playing just 3 matches.  The chances of disaster are not as great as NorCal with 22 teams and 3 matches, but there is still a good chance of 5 undefeated teams.

Why do sections do this?  I don't know, they are either just not thinking or refuse to consider statistics and the likelihood of it happening.  I have not looked at the specific teams/schedule, but there is a decent chance that 5 or even 6 teams could go undefeated for SoCal SCTA Doubles Sectionals.

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