2014 AFC and NFC Championship Game Previews

I haven't been posting my NFL ratings and thought regularly this year, but it is Conference Championship time so I thought it was time to do so.

First, here are my computer's ratings through the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Seattle	90.316	14-3	81.824	+0, +0.185
2	Denver	88.578	14-3	79.766	+0, -0.015
3	San Francisco	88.476	14-4	82.133	+0, +0.837
4	New Orleans	86.490	12-6	82.589	+0, -0.140
5	Arizona	86.032	10-6	82.570	+1, +0.013
6	Carolina	85.702	12-5	81.903	-1, -0.784
7	New England	85.684	13-4	79.808	+0, +0.872
8	Kansas City	83.723	11-6	79.922	+1, -0.120
9	Cincinnati	83.615	11-6	79.096	+2, +0.022
10	San Diego	83.576	10-8	81.244	+0, -0.069
11	Indianapolis	83.197	12-6	81.484	-3, -0.781
12	St Louis	81.829	7-9	82.985	+0, +0.010
13	Philadelphia	81.719	10-7	79.800	+0, -0.011
14	Dallas	80.207	8-8	80.022	+0, -0.006
15	Pittsburgh	79.968	8-8	78.705	+0, +0.082
16	Tennessee	79.750	7-9	81.150	+0, -0.058
17	Miami	79.532	8-8	80.788	+0, +0.033
18	Baltimore	78.704	8-8	79.381	+1, +0.101
19	NY Giants	78.681	7-9	80.694	-1, -0.021
20	Detroit	78.552	7-9	78.845	+0, +0.028
21	Chicago	78.306	8-8	79.139	+0, +0.020
22	Green Bay	78.162	8-8-1	79.409	+0, +0.084
23	Tampa Bay	78.070	4-12	82.948	+0, -0.000
24	Atlanta	77.807	4-12	82.500	+0, +0.005
25	Buffalo	77.656	6-10	80.468	+0, +0.045
26	NY Jets	77.372	8-8	80.303	+0, +0.045
27	Minnesota	76.557	5-10-1	79.839	+0, -0.009
28	Oakland	74.947	4-12	80.979	+0, -0.043
29	Houston	74.417	2-14	82.257	+0, -0.023
30	Washington	74.416	3-13	80.619	+0, +0.033
31	Jacksonville	74.174	4-12	81.495	+0, -0.058
32	Cleveland	74.060	4-12	79.643	+0, +0.051

We can see the 4 teams in the championship games are ranked 1 thru 3 and 7.  So not a lot of surprises here.  We can also see that the home teams are rated higher, so in theory when you add in home field advantage they should be favored as they are.

But let's take a deeper look!

Here is Seattle's performance chart.



We can see they had their worst game of the year against Arizona, but recovered pretty well with good results against St. Louis and New Orleans.  We can also see that while they do well at home, they have some very good results on the road too so they aren't just a home team.  Even if we ignore their loss to Arizona, their last three games are right around 94, but with it their last four are 89.5.




San Francisco we can see has been on a slow but pretty steady improvement since mid-year.  Their last four, three on the road, average 90.6, but take their three best of their last four and they are 92.4.

So you can make the argument that the 49ers are playing at the same level Seattle is, but given the game is in Seattle, you have to give the advantage to Seattle.  But San Francisco just proved they can throw up a great result, 99.1, on the road last week so if they can do that again, they have a shot.




Denver took a small drop late in the year, and the San Diego loss was their worst result of the year, but they avenged that loss last week.  Their last three average is 89.9 and with the San Diego loss it is 85.8.




New England improved slightly late in the year with 3 good results.  Their average from those three is a very good 93.6 but throw in the loss and they are at 89.6.

So based on their late season results, New England would seem to be the stronger team, but the game is in Denver so there is some advantage to that.  By the numbers, this game should be closer and has the better chance of the upset.

What do you think?