2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A look at conference performance thus far

Before the bowls started, I wrote up what records Vegas and my computer expected each conference to have as a way of judging performance once the games were complete.  As I wrote then, if a conference has a great record, that doesn't necessarily mean it is a great conference if they were all games they should have won.  Similarly if a conference has a poor record, the matchups could again mean they aren't that bad.

Below is the original table I posted updated with the results through 12/30 plus the Texas A&M/Northwestern game showing the actual records thus far in the last column.  This table will be kept up to date here.

Conference	Vegas	Computer	Most Likely	Thru 12/30
SEC	7-0	7-0	5-2	1-0
Big-12	6-2	7-1	6-2	5-1
Sun Belt	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-1
Mtn West	3-2	3-2	3-2	2-3
ACC	4-4	2-6	3-5	2-2
Independents	1-1	1-1	1-1	1-1
MAC	2-3	4-1	3-2	3-1
C-USA	2-3	3-2	3-2	2-1
Big-East	2-3	1-4	2-3	1-1
WAC	1-2	1-2	1-2	0-3
B1G	3-6	1-9	4-6	1-2
Pac-12	1-6	3-4	3-4	0-3

No major surprises with most conference at or around what was expected.

The WAC is finished and they went 0-3 rather than the expected 1-2, Utah State losing the 1 point game to Ohio U.  The Mountain West is also finished and they too went a game under expected, 2-3 rather than 3-2.  Both of these conferences doing slightly worse than expected confirms they are among the weaker conferences.

Since there are still a bunch of key games to play, particularly for the big conferences, it is too early to make any real statements there, but the Big-12 is right on target with 2 games to go, the Big-12 has a bunch of games to go but early is on target, and the Pac-12 needs some help to get on target.

More later.

2012 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview - Oklahoma State to win and cover

The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Stanford against Oklahoma State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Stanford is ranked #9 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 82.684 against a schedule strength of 68.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent except for their loss, their worst game being against Oregon and best game being at Southern Cal. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Oklahoma State is ranked #3 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 87.587 against a schedule strength of 72.696. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were almost as consistent, but also had a bad loss, their worst game being at Iowa State and best game being against Oklahoma. They are 6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Arizona and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Stanford-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Arizona-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Colorado-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Southern_Cal-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Texas-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Washington-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St

Against Arizona, Stanford won 37-10 on the road and Oklahoma State won 37-14 at home.

The spread is Oklahoma State by 3.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Oklahoma State -3.5 over . Stanford 4.9 1.4 0.654 0.545

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Rose Bowl Preview - Oregon to win, Wisconsin to cover

The Rose Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Wisconsin against Oregon. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Wisconsin is ranked #8 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 82.939 against a schedule strength of 66.590. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good other than mid-season, their worst game being at Ohio State and best game being against Nebraska. They are 5-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Oregon is ranked #4 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 85.534 against a schedule strength of 69.883. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were good to great but falter in a couple games, their worst game being against Southern Cal and best game being at Stanford. They are 4-2-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Oregon State and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Nebraska-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->California-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Stanford-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Nevada-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Washington_St-->Oregon


Against Oregon State, Wisconsin won 35-0 at home and Oregon won 49-21 at home.

The spread is Oregon by 6.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Wisconsin +6.5 over *. Oregon 2.6 3.9 0.592 0.637

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl Preview - Florida to win, Ohio State to cover

The Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Ohio State against Florida. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Ohio State is ranked #39 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 71.965 against a schedule strength of 68.995. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Miami FL and best game being against Wisconsin. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.



Florida is ranked #32 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.204 against a schedule strength of 71.106. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good early but then declined, their worst game being against Florida State and best game being at Kentucky. They are 2-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Ohio_State-->Miami_FL-->Florida_St-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Penn_State-->Alabama-->Florida


The spread is Florida by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Ohio State +2.0 over *. Florida 1.2 0.8 0.567 0.541

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Capital One Bowl - South Carolina to win and cover

The Capital One Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Nebraska against South Carolina. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Nebraska is ranked #21 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 76.353 against a schedule strength of 69.983. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down particularly mid season, their worst game being at Michigan and best game being against Michigan State. They are 3-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 7-2 picking winners in their games.



South Carolina is ranked #13 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 79.216 against a schedule strength of 70.154. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little up and down, their worst game being against Navy and best game being against Clemson. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only one way as follows:

3 Nebraska-->Chattanooga-->The_Citadel-->South_Carolina

The spread is South Carolina by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 2.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.South Carolina -1.5 over . Nebraska 2.9 1.4 0.621 0.558

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 Outback Bowl - Georgia to win, Michigan State to cover

The Outback Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Michigan State against Georgia. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Michigan State is ranked #16 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 78.052 against a schedule strength of 68.228. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, a few bad games pulling them down and out of the top-10, their worst game being at Nebraska and best game being against Michigan. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



Georgia is ranked #11 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 79.746 against a schedule strength of 71.067. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent after a bit of a slow start, their worst game being against Boise State and best game being against Auburn. They are 7-0 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 as follows:


3 Michigan_St-->Central_Michigan-->Kentucky-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Auburn-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Minnesota-->New_Mexico_St-->Georgia


The spread is Gerogia by 4 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Michigan State +4.0 over *. Georgia 1.7 2.3 0.572 0.598

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2012 TicketCity Bowl Preview - Houston to win, Penn State to cover

The TicketCity Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Houston against Penn State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Houston is ranked #20 by the computer with a 12-1 record and a rating of 76.554 against a schedule strength of 61.391. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good all year, improving towards the end until their last game, their worst game being against Southern Miss and best game being at Tulsa. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Penn State is ranked #28 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 74.151 against a schedule strength of 69.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being at Wisconsin and best game being at Northwestern. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Alabama-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Indiana-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Northwestern-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Purdue-->Penn_State


The spread is Houston by 6 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Penn State +6.0 over * Houston 2.4 3.6 0.584 0.625

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview - Auburn to win and cover

The Chick-fil-A Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Virginia against Auburn. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Virginia is ranked #63 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 67.282 against a schedule strength of 65.457. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down late in the year, their worst game being against North Carolina State and best game being at Miami FL. They are 2-4-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



Auburn is ranked #35 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 72.375 against a schedule strength of 72.726. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down and certainly down from last year, their worst game being against Florida Atlantic and best game being at South Carolina. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and by 3 degrees:


3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Florida-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Georgia-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Idaho-->Utah_St-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Maryland-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn


The spread is Auburn by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 5.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Auburn -1.5 over . Virginia 5.1 3.6 0.711 0.653

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Week 8 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Starting with this post, I will be projecting the 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.  Note that I'm doing this a bit late this week and so the ratings used are as of last Sunday so some teams will not have their latest games reflected.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Purdue, Oregon State, St. Joe's, and Virginia Tech.  The first 4 left out are Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Pitt.  The ratings are very close though and with most of the meaningful games left to be played, much could change.  But the key thing is that some teams you might think will make it comfortably like a 10-3 Purdue, 11-2 Illinois, or 11-2 Pitt, are currently right around the bubble due to weaker early schedules (#'s 263, 257, and 290 of 345).

What may also be a surprise is that some teams, like 7-5 Belmont or 7-4 New Mexico State are ranked high enough that they would be in even if they weren't the highest ranked team in their conference.  This is because they have played much tougher schedules early in the year (#'s 58 and 90).

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Missouri*	87.667	12-0	64.260	+0, -3.003
2	Baylor	87.426	11-0	69.896	+2, +0.765
3	Ohio State*	87.188	12-1	68.827	+2, +0.835
4	Syracuse*	87.097	13-0	69.565	-2, -0.672
5	Wisconsin	86.994	11-2	70.326	-2, -0.092
6	North Carolina*	86.629	11-2	72.725	+1, +1.034
7	Kentucky*	86.155	11-1	68.109	-1, +0.265
8	Florida	85.609	10-2	70.241	+6, +1.244
9	Indiana	85.066	12-0	66.027	+2, -0.061
10	UNLV*	84.830	11-2	73.853	+7, +1.515
11	Marquette	84.658	11-1	70.928	+1, -0.284
12	Kansas St	83.968	10-1	70.775	+16, +2.047
13	Michigan St	83.869	11-2	70.225	+0, -0.638
14	Murray St*	83.829	10-0	71.436	-5, -1.351
15	Duke	83.730	10-1	74.494	+0, -0.078
16	Louisville	83.426	12-0	69.137	-8, -1.828
17	Kansas	83.418	8-3	74.405	+4, +0.704
18	Georgetown DC	83.310	9-1	68.083	+4, +0.605
19	Ohio U.*	83.201	10-1	72.170	+10, +1.478
20	Creighton*	82.865	10-1	69.236	-4, -0.779
21	St Louis U.*	82.749	10-1	67.706	-1, +0.030
22	California*	82.699	10-3	70.550	-12, -2.437
23	Wichita St	82.638	8-2	70.955	+2, +0.234
24	St Mary's CA*	82.353	9-2	70.123	-6, -0.888
25	Virginia	81.881	10-1	67.614	-6, -1.139
26	Brigham Young	81.805	9-3	70.255	+8, +0.505
27	Connecticut	81.656	10-1	70.357	-4, -1.012
28	Marshall*	81.435	8-2	71.529	+3, -0.103
29	Alabama	80.793	9-3	72.990	+12, +0.645
30	Long Beach St*	80.235	5-6	79.785	+7, -0.535
31	Harvard*	80.224	9-1	71.502	+1, -1.206
32	Gonzaga	80.204	9-2	71.370	+8, -0.028
33	Seton Hall	80.135	11-1	68.757	+11, +0.310
34	Northern Iowa	80.114	9-2	73.021	-8, -2.202
35	Oklahoma	80.093	9-1	67.831	+0, -0.795
36	Florida St	79.995	8-4	71.742	-6, -1.610
37	Southern Miss	79.865	9-2	73.971	-10, -2.118
38	West Virginia	79.778	9-3	71.407	+4, -0.121
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.703	10-2	69.828	+11, +0.479
40	Memphis	79.666	6-5	75.447	-1, -0.697
41	Michigan	79.615	9-2	69.338	-5, -1.166
42	Denver	79.558	10-2	71.156	-9, -1.822
43	Texas	79.439	9-3	68.362	-5, -1.238
44	Mississippi St	79.226	12-1	66.939	+2, -0.312
45	Iona*	79.147	10-2	72.435	-2, -0.711
46	New Mexico	79.082	9-2	68.894	+5, -0.099
47	Temple	79.002	7-3	74.710	+11, +0.132
48	San Diego St	78.981	11-2	69.660	+0, -0.453
49	Northwestern	78.971	10-2	70.236	+0, -0.342
50	Belmont*	78.935	7-5	73.047	+5, -0.046
51	Stanford	78.927	10-2	67.164	-27, -3.636
52	Virginia Tech	78.926	10-3	69.102	+1, -0.176
53	St Joseph's PA	78.633	9-3	71.772	-8, -1.132
54	New Mexico St*	78.454	7-4	71.860	-2, -0.688
55	Oregon St	78.348	10-2	65.280	+1, -0.580
56	Purdue	78.296	10-3	68.606	+10, +0.825
59	VA Commonwealth*	77.724	9-3	69.554	+4, -0.198
65	Wagner*	77.169	8-3	70.464	+15, +1.023
67	North Dakota St*	76.936	7-3	70.443	+0, -0.520
68	Lamar*	76.829	7-4	73.732	-4, -0.776
76	Lehigh*	75.821	8-4	69.244	+7, -0.066
87	Cleveland St*	74.995	10-2	71.858	+7, -0.277
89	Davidson*	74.975	6-4	74.044	-13, -1.483
112	Charleston Southern*	73.135	5-4	71.328	+19, +0.919
121	Morgan St*	72.610	2-7	75.871	+35, +1.420
122	Weber St*	72.559	6-3	71.089	-6, -0.449
180	Vermont*	69.225	6-7	69.591	+21, +0.372
264	Mississippi Valley St*	64.385	1-10	80.496	+8, -0.193

2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview - UCLA in the upset

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Illinois against UCLA. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Illinois is ranked #64 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.954 against a schedule strength of 67.967. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they declined a bit all year, their worst game being at Minnesota and best game being against Arkansas State. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



UCLA is ranked #62 by the computer with a 6-7 record and a rating of 67.517 against a schedule strength of 72.215. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were wildly inconsistent, their worst game being at Arizona and best game being against California. They are 4-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through ASU and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Arizona-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->California-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Utah-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Washington_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA


Against ASU, Illinois won 17-14 at home and UCLA won 29-28 at home.

The spread is Illinois by 3 and the computer disagrees picking UCLA by 0.6.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.UCLA +3.0 over . Illinois 0.6 3.6 0.519 0.618

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowls Preview - Vanderbilt to win and cover

The AutoZone Liberty Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Cincinnati against Vanderbilt. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Cincinnati is ranked #38 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 72.024 against a schedule strength of 64.199. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at Rutgers and best game being against North Carolina State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Vanderbilt is ranked #26 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 74.358 against a schedule strength of 70.331. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were moderately consistent, getting a bit better throughout the year, their worst game being at South Carolina and best game being at Wake Forest. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and Tennessee and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
2 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Miami_OH-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Florida-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt

Against UConn, Cincinnati won 35-27 at home and Vandy won 24-21 at home.  Against Tennessee, Cincinnati lost 45-23 on the road and Vandy lost 27-21 on the road.

The spread is Vandy by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 2.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Vanderbilt            -1.5 over  .           Cincinnati  2.3  0.8 0.597 0.535

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Hyundai Sun Bowl Preview - Utah to upset Georgia Tech

The Hyundai Sun Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Georgia Tech against Utah. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Georgia Tech is ranked #49 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 70.303 against a schedule strength of 64.305. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Miami FL and best game being against Clemson. They are 3-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Utah is ranked #44 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 71.054 against a schedule strength of 68.424. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down, their worst game being against Washington and best game being at Brigham Young. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3-1 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 or 3 degrees at all.

The spread is Georgia Tech by 3.5 and the computer disagrees picking the upset. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Utah +3.5 over . Georgia Tech 0.8 4.3 0.527 0.648

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl Preview - Texas A&M to win and cover (barely)

The Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Texas A%team1%M against Northwestern. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Texas A&M is ranked #14 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 78.742 against a schedule strength of 73.124. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being against Missouri and best game being against Baylor. They are 0-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



Northwestern is ranked #57 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 68.598 against a schedule strength of 66.313. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down a bit early, then better, their worst game being at Army and best game being at Nebraska. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and 3 degrees in only 4 ways as follows:


3 Texas_A&M-->Baylor-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Iowa_St-->Iowa-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->SMU-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Texas-->Rice-->Northwestern


The spread is Texas A&M by 10 and the computer agrees picking them by 10.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Texas A&M -10.0 over .. Northwestern 10.1 0.1 0.895 0.507

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Preview - Mississippi State to win and cover

The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Mississippi State against Wake Forest. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Mississippi State is ranked #30 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.680 against a schedule strength of 71.293. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being against Arkansas and best game being against Mississippi. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.



Wake Forest is ranked #67 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.367 against a schedule strength of 66.452. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at North Carolina and best game being against Florida State. They are 4-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



Showing how little the SEC and ACC play, the teams are not separated by 2 degrees at all and are by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Mississippi_St-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Auburn-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Mississippi-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest


The spread is Mississippi State by 6.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 7.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Mississippi State -6.5 over .. Wake Forest 7.3 0.8 0.808 0.539

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

2011 New Era Pinstripe Bowl Preview - Iowa State in the upset

The New Era Pinstripe Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Rutgers against Iowa State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Rutgers is ranked #51 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 70.144 against a schedule strength of 64.055. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, more so at the end of the year, their worst game being at Connecticut and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.



Iowa State is ranked #48 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 70.389 against a schedule strength of 74.381. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok, then struggled, then were way up but down too, their worst game being against Texas and best game being against Oklahoma State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Iowa-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St

Against UConn, Iowa State won 24-20 on the road and Rutgers lost 40-22 on the road.


The spread is Rutgers by 2 and the computer disagrees picking the upset by 0.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Iowa State +2.0 over . Rutgers 0.2 2.2 0.511 0.596

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.