2009 Week 12 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 12 of the NFL season is complete and there were remarkably few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there are still 2.  New Orleans wins easily and Indy has to forge a comeback and both stay undefeated and #1 and #2 in the rankings.  New England stays #3 as they were expected to lose by 6 and lost by 17 which dropped their rating nearly a point, but even with Minnesota improving their rating over a point they didn't quite bridge the gap.  Baltimore, San Diego, and Cincinnati all win and stay in their spots as well.

The computer did ok overall going 8-7-1 against the spread this week and beat Vegas going 14-2 straight up compared to 13-3.  And the best picks against the spread went a great 5-1.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	92.154	11-0	78.691	+0, +0.753
2	Indianapolis	89.790	11-0	81.598	+0, +0.223
3	New England	87.221	7-4	82.355	+0, -0.911
4	Minnesota	86.993	10-1	77.605	+0, +1.109
5	Baltimore	85.715	6-5	82.066	+0, +0.229
6	San Diego	84.943	8-3	79.647	+0, +0.245
7	Cincinnati	84.350	8-3	80.182	+0, -0.188
8	Pittsburgh	84.331	6-5	80.975	+1, +0.247
9	Dallas	83.895	8-3	78.528	+2, +0.101
10	Arizona	83.555	7-4	80.169	+0, -0.493
11	Denver	82.634	7-4	81.551	+7, +1.351
12	Houston	82.584	5-6	82.141	+0, -0.169
13	Philadelphia	82.317	6-5	79.472	-5, -1.876
14	Green Bay	81.982	7-4	78.106	+5, +0.748
15	Tennessee	81.917	5-6	82.975	+2, +0.320
16	San Francisco	81.916	5-6	81.099	+4, +1.029
17	NY Jets	81.892	5-6	81.774	-1, +0.003
18	Atlanta	81.806	6-5	81.478	-5, -0.889
19	Miami	80.860	5-6	82.985	-5, -1.723
20	NY Giants	80.590	6-5	81.471	-5, -1.490
21	Buffalo	78.624	4-7	81.330	+3, +1.564
22	Jacksonville	78.615	6-5	80.967	-1, -0.753
23	Carolina	78.265	4-7	81.979	-1, -0.747
24	Chicago	78.234	4-7	80.941	-1, -0.637
25	Seattle	77.335	4-7	80.385	+1, +0.671
26	Washington	77.238	4-7	78.879	+1, +1.624
27	Kansas City	75.828	3-8	81.269	-2, -0.869
28	Tampa Bay	74.622	1-10	82.268	+1, +0.456
29	Oakland	74.188	3-8	81.528	-1, -0.617
30	Cleveland	72.644	1-10	82.914	+1, +0.885
31	St Louis	72.279	1-10	81.276	-1, -0.505
32	Detroit	70.120	2-9	80.833	+0, +0.011

2009 Week 13 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 13 (games played thru 28-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With one week to go in the season, it couldn't have gotten much closer at the top!  Alabama remains #1 but by less than 0.6 points.  This means Alabama will be picked next week but it really is a virtual tie.  See this blog entry for more details on a head to head comparison and look for more here later in the week.

Behind the top two, the SEC cleaned up.  Buoyed by non-conference wins and upsets in two of the cases over FSU, @GT, and Clemson, nearly every SEC team improved their ratings, some 2 or 3 points leading to 8 teams in the top 24.  The bowl games will be interesting to see if this dominance is well deserved.

Naturally the ACC was hurt being the 3 opponents with their ratings doing just the opposite.  The championship game between Georgia Tech and Clemson doesn't look nearly as appealing now and GT just lost any chance they had of losing and still get a BCS bowl bid.  In fact, the computer says Virginia Tech is the best team in the ACC.

Other than Oklahoma pulling the "upset" (they were favored by Vegas and my computer though), the Big-12 didn't fare that well.  Texas was tested by A&M but moreso was just passed by Florida to drop to #3 and they will face a #23 Nebraska in their championship game.

Cincinnati eked by a bad Illinois team and justifiably dropped to #9 in the rankings and will barely be favored in their game against Pittsburgh next weekend.  If they win, they deserve the BCS bowl they'll get but if not, an undefeated Boise State should get the at-large pick over them.  See this blog entry for thoughts on the BCS at-large teams.

The computer had a blah week against the spread going 25-23-1 and also only went 36-13 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	89.492	12-0	70.589	+0, +0.334
2	Florida	88.916	12-0	69.301	+1, +2.272
3	Texas	87.675	12-0	68.647	-1, -0.444
4	TCU	85.300	12-0	64.855	+0, -1.251
5	Oregon	82.648	9-2	72.096	+0, -0.181
6	Boise St	82.255	12-0	63.719	+2, -0.206
7	Virginia Tech	82.027	9-3	72.175	+0, -0.487
8	Arkansas	81.389	7-5	72.652	+3, +1.428
9	Cincinnati	81.103	11-0	65.374	-3, -1.476
10	LSU	80.668	9-3	72.094	+3, +1.368
11	Oklahoma	80.170	7-5	70.353	+4, +1.327
12	Georgia Tech	79.313	10-2	71.846	-3, -2.378
13	Texas Tech	79.026	8-4	67.958	-1, -0.446
14	Miami FL	78.884	9-3	71.411	+0, -0.218
15	Oregon St	78.387	8-3	68.806	+2, -0.286
16	Stanford	78.368	8-4	70.574	+0, -0.387
17	Clemson	78.243	8-4	69.708	-7, -3.156
18	Ohio State	77.961	10-2	65.862	+1, -0.443
19	Tennessee	77.529	7-5	70.619	+11, +2.217
20	Mississippi	77.470	8-4	69.685	+0, -0.574
21	Southern Cal	77.361	8-3	71.561	+5, +0.847
22	Pittsburgh	77.247	9-2	67.006	-4, -1.209
23	Nebraska	77.124	9-3	67.308	-2, -0.246
24	Auburn	76.906	7-5	72.461	+5, +1.590
25	Penn State	76.529	10-2	63.982	-3, -0.740
26	Arizona	76.367	7-4	70.963	-1, -0.486
27	California	76.060	8-3	70.601	+0, -0.400
28	Oklahoma St	75.946	9-3	68.832	-5, -1.235
29	North Carolina	75.206	8-4	68.874	-5, -1.894
30	Georgia	75.184	7-5	73.870	+10, +2.919
31	Connecticut	74.976	6-5	68.847	+0, +0.254
32	Iowa	74.921	10-2	67.383	-4, -0.494
33	South Carolina	74.904	7-5	73.325	+18, +3.661
34	Brigham Young	74.233	10-2	66.076	+0, -0.227
35	Utah	74.138	9-3	65.699	-3, -0.436
36	West Virginia	74.135	8-3	68.427	-3, -0.401
37	Kentucky	74.131	7-5	69.253	-1, +0.752
38	Mississippi St	73.955	5-7	73.092	+11, +2.625
39	Houston	72.955	10-2	62.818	+0, +0.549
40	Florida St	72.401	6-6	73.016	-5, -1.263
41	Texas A&M	72.276	6-6	69.787	+2, +0.296
42	Missouri	72.272	8-4	68.670	-4, -0.301
43	Boston College	72.142	8-4	68.286	-6, -1.193
44	Central Michigan	71.793	10-2	60.189	+2, +0.138
45	Rutgers	71.715	8-3	60.856	+2, +0.173
46	Notre Dame	71.638	6-6	69.582	-1, -0.172
47	Wake Forest	71.317	5-7	70.837	+5, +0.201
48	UCLA	71.274	6-6	72.359	-6, -0.932
49	Air Force	70.906	7-5	63.849	-1, -0.531
50	Wisconsin	70.851	8-3	65.612	+0, -0.424
51	Nevada	70.847	8-4	64.615	+3, +0.452
52	Navy	69.999	8-4	65.572	-11, -2.240
53	South Florida	69.932	7-4	65.634	-9, -1.973
54	Washington	69.926	4-7	72.715	+1, +0.215
55	East Carolina	69.702	8-4	66.178	-2, -0.739
56	Arizona St	69.152	4-8	69.381	+2, +0.103
57	Michigan St	69.111	6-6	66.605	-1, -0.511
58	Fresno St	69.053	7-4	65.464	+2, +0.267
59	Kansas	68.437	5-7	69.484	+2, +0.164
60	Central Florida	68.179	8-4	64.788	+5, +0.450
61	Troy	68.165	9-3	62.178	+5, +0.605
62	Minnesota	67.602	6-6	69.362	+0, -0.555
63	Southern Miss	67.497	7-5	62.213	+0, -0.601
64	Iowa St	67.285	6-6	66.532	+3, -0.188
65	Virginia	67.280	3-9	72.848	-6, -1.512
66	Kansas St	67.241	6-6	67.388	+2, -0.095
67	Temple	66.698	9-3	60.406	-10, -2.704
68	Ohio U.	66.540	9-3	61.327	+12, +2.038
69	Baylor	66.456	4-8	71.049	+3, +0.380
70	Purdue	66.418	5-7	67.408	+0, -0.432
71	Middle Tennessee St	66.339	9-3	59.615	+6, +1.101
72	Duke	66.205	5-7	67.762	-8, -1.865
73	Northwestern	66.156	8-4	62.590	-2, -0.535
74	Louisiana Tech	66.048	3-8	67.341	+0, +0.361
75	North Carolina St	65.928	5-7	67.071	+0, +0.473
76	Bowling Green	65.653	7-5	63.736	+0, +0.310
77	Syracuse	64.497	4-8	68.335	-4, -1.443
78	Northern Illinois	64.311	7-5	58.597	+1, -0.392
79	Marshall	64.224	6-6	66.175	-10, -2.727
80	SMU	63.778	7-5	63.969	-2, -1.188
81	Maryland	63.600	2-10	70.521	+1, -0.242
82	Colorado	63.283	3-9	70.075	+3, +0.068
83	Illinois	63.028	3-8	68.545	+3, -0.057
84	Alabama-Birmingham	63.019	5-7	65.451	-1, -0.749
85	Vanderbilt	62.975	2-10	71.387	+7, +0.962
86	Michigan	62.854	5-7	63.773	-2, -0.442
87	Utah St	62.623	4-8	66.605	+7, +1.142
88	Hawaii	62.589	6-6	62.859	+7, +1.580
89	Idaho	62.270	7-5	64.382	-2, -0.397
90	Louisville	62.243	4-8	68.110	-9, -2.080
91	UNLV	62.225	5-7	66.217	-2, -0.235
92	Buffalo	62.159	5-7	62.290	+1, +0.324
93	Tulsa	62.063	5-7	63.167	-5, -0.402
94	Wyoming	61.985	6-6	67.360	-4, -0.273
95	Indiana	61.556	4-8	65.399	-4, -0.634
96	UTEP	61.344	4-8	63.222	+4, +2.600
97	San Diego St	60.528	4-8	64.962	-1, -0.209
98	Colorado St	59.344	3-9	66.582	-1, -0.501
99	Kent St	58.797	5-7	60.198	+0, -0.656
100	Western Michigan	57.980	5-7	60.297	-2, -1.519
101	Florida Atlantic	57.426	4-7	61.776	+1, -0.700
102	Louisiana-Monroe	57.389	6-6	60.896	-1, -1.054
103	Toledo	57.175	5-7	61.892	+0, -0.437
104	Memphis	56.595	2-10	66.219	+0, +0.654
105	Arkansas St	55.155	3-8	59.304	+0, -0.610
106	Army	55.009	5-6	59.032	+2, +0.164
107	Louisiana-Lafayette	54.915	6-6	60.054	-1, -0.481
108	Washington St	54.736	1-11	73.129	-1, -0.600
109	Ball St	54.457	2-10	62.081	+7, +2.258
110	San Jose St	54.017	2-9	67.219	+0, -0.059
111	Tulane	53.958	3-9	64.814	+1, +0.666
112	Akron	53.625	3-9	61.971	-3, -0.816
113	Miami OH	53.364	1-11	67.163	-2, -0.153
114	Rice	52.756	2-10	66.912	-1, +0.044
115	North Texas	52.498	2-10	60.194	+2, +0.543
116	Florida Int'l	52.397	3-8	65.073	-2, +0.045
117	New Mexico	52.335	1-11	67.756	-2, +0.030
118	New Mexico St	51.047	3-9	62.486	+0, +0.986
119	Eastern Michigan	45.388	0-12	63.020	+0, +0.382
120	Western Kentucky	45.040	0-11	61.979	+0, +1.356

Florida vs Alabama Analysis

As expected, we've ended up with undefeated Florida vs undefeated Alabama in the SEC championship game with a invitation to the BCS championship game in the balance.  I'll likely blog more on the subject, but here are a few tidbits.

Florida and Alabama have 7 common opponents so looking at those games may shed some light on how the teams compare.

Tennessee - They played both teams on the road, losing to Florida by 10 on 9/19 and by 2 to Alabama on 10/24.  Florida got them earlier in the year before they improved some, but small advantage to Florida.

Kentucky - Both teams visited Kentucky in successive weeks, Florida winning by 34 and Alabama by 18.  Advantage Florida.

LSU - Florida visited LSU winning by 10 while Alabama hosted them and won by 9.  Small advantage to Florida.

Arkansas - They visited both teams losing to Alabama by 28 early in the year and by only 3 to Florida 3 weeks later.  Advantage Alabama.

Mississippi State - Both teams visited them Florida winning by 10 and Alabama by 28 3 weeks later.  Advantage Alabama.

South Carolina - Alabama hosted them winning by 14 and Florida visited them winning by 10.  Basically a push.

Florida International - They visited both teams losing by 26 to Alabama and 59 to Florida.  Small advantage to Florida.

In the end, it all totals a small advantage to Florida.  So why does the computer have Alabama ever so slightly rated higher?  It comes down to the non-common opponents.  Alabama beat a very good Virginia Tech team by 10, a good Ole Miss by 19, beat a good Auburn by 5, and rolled over the other patsies on their schedule.  Florida beat a decent Georgia by 24, an ok FSU by 27, and rolled over the other patsies on their schedule.  This results in Alabama's strength of schedule being about 1.3 points higher than Florida which is enough to make up the gap in common opponents.  Advantage Alabama.

In the end, the computer is going to pick Albama by around 0.6.  When a game is that close it comes down to intangibles, match-ups, and who will make the big play.

More to come later.

BCS At Large Big Analysis

A very popular topic in the upcoming week or two is going to be who the BCS bowl at-large teams should be.  There are still a few games of importance to play today and next weekend, but it is always fun to look forward and prognosticate so here we go.

There are 5 BCS bowl games so 10 spots up for grabs.  Without going into all the different provisions, the 6 BCS conferences get an automatic bid leaving 4 at-large bids.  The highest ranked champion from a non-BCS conference gets an automatic bid as long as they are ranked in the top-12 and Notre Dame gets a bid if they are in the top-8.  The latter isn't happening this year but the former is likely to.

The current situation with games left to be played is:

• SEC - Alabama/Florida
• Big-12 - Texas/Nebraska
• Pac-10 - Oregon/Oregon State
• Big East - Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
• ACC - Georgia Tech/Clemson
• Big-Televen - Ohio State
• Top-12 Auto - TCU/Boise State

That leaves 3 open spots.  We'll assume that the Alabama/Florida loser will get an at-large and deservedly so and we'll assume for now that other favorites win their conferences (Texas, Oregon, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech).  This would leave 2 spots available for the following teams (in order of my computer's rankings):

• Virginia Tech - Yes, they have 3 losses but those were to undefeated Alabama, by only 5 at a 1-loss Georgia Tech, and by only 3 to an 8-3 UNC and they have wins over Miami and Nebraska (both 8-3) as well as 7-4 BC and East Carolina.
• Boise State - They get trumped for the auto-spot by TCU, but if ever there were a year a second non-BCS team should be in it is this year.  Their downfall is their strength of schedule but they did beat a very good Oregon team and took care of business against the other non-conference teams that would play them.

 What about Oklahoma State or a Big-Televen team like Iowa or Penn State you ask?

Yes, Oklahoma State is 9-2 but they've played a pretty weak schedule (only Iowa State's is weaker in the Big-12) but they have beaten the teams they were supposed to other than the Houston misstep.

Regarding Iowa and Penn State, lets just say the conference champ Ohio State shouldn't even be in the top-10, my computer having them at #19.  Penn State is the closest contender but they are #22 and their schedule is much weaker than Oklahoma State's and Iowa is #28 with a comparable schedule to Ok St. but less than impressive wins hurt them.

Now, reality is that pollsters and the BCS committee will over-rotate on win/loss record and likely take Oklahoma State (should they win today) and/or Iowa (cinderella story) but they shouldn't.  If one was taken it might be justifiable as long as Boise State was the other.

Now it gets interesting if we have upsets in the conference championship games.  Texas would likely get and deserve an at-large spot if they lose to Nebraska and an argument could be made for Cincinnati the same.  My computer would argue Oregon should get a spot but probably lose that argument and perhaps Georgia Tech too.  Any of those scenarios would make it interesting!

2009 Week 13 College Football Preview

Here is a preview of a few selected games for this week.  The computer has already gone 11-4 through games played thus far.  Last weeks highlighted games went a very good 4-1 against the spread basically nailing the Oregon/Arizona and Ohio St/Michigan margins, but also calling the Notre Dame and OU lines way too big.  The only miss was Stanford/Cal.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

Since this is a traditional rivalry weekend, I had trouble limiting myself to just 5 games, so this week you get 7.

In what should be one of the better games of the weekend, #11 Arkansas visits #13 LSU as 3.5 point underdogs while the computer picks LSU by 2.3.  The computer is 7-4 picking LSU ATS but only 6-5 for Arkansas so tough to say it is a strong pick.

#9 Georgia Tech hosts #40 Georgia hoping to keep their 1-loss season going and is picked by 7 but the computer likes them by much more at 12.4.  The computer is 6-4 picking GT games and they themselves are 7-3 ATS while Georgia is 3-8, making this seem a pretty good pick.

#26 USC hosts #42 UCLA trying to not end a disappointing season on yet another disappointing note.  Oddsmakers believe the good USC will show up with the line 13 but the computer picks them by only 7.3.  Neither team is good ATS this year but USC is bad (2-8) and the computer is 6-4 and 7-4 picking them this year, so another good pick.

In the game between closest ranked teams, #32 Utah visits #34 BYU as a 7.5 point dog but the computer has it only 2.9 points.  Nothing stands out in trends ATS, but the computer thinks Utah is actually better and it is only home field that gives BYU the straight up, so use that as you will.

In a game perhaps more important to #23 Oklahoma State, they visit #15 Oklahoma as 10 point underdogs.  Yes, the computer has OU ranked higher, but given the spread Vegas thinks so too.  All that said, 10 is too many, the computer having it at 4.7.  However, the computer is only 3-8 in Ok St. picks while it is 7-3 in OU picks ATS.

#45 Notre Dame visits #16 Stanford with Charlie Weis' job likely on the line.  The computer picks Stanford by 9.9 but the Notre Dame faithful have gotten the spread down to 7.5.  The computer is 8-3 picking Notre Dame games but only 5-6 on Stanford, but Notre Dame is only 3-8 ATS while Stanford is 8-3, so seems like a pretty strong pick, but the computer can't factor in emotion.

In a game where #3 Florida hopes they can at least win a close one like Alabama and Texas did, but would like to win easily for beauty points, they host #35 Florida State favored by an astonishing 24.5 while the computer has it at 16.  With Florida only 5-5 ATS this year it would seem like a strong pick, but Florida State is a worse 3-7.  It may depend on how FSU withstands early pressure from Florida to see if they can keep it close.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.

Turkey Day Football Preview

Thanksgiving is always something I look forward to for many reasons, two of which are the food and watching football.  I'll likely do too much of the former today, but what is in store for us for the latter?  Full picks for college and the NFL are available, but I'll highlight the 4 key games today below.

The day gets started with Green Bay at Detroit.  The game would likely be more interesting with Stafford playing, but hopefully Culpepper will not be the same dropoff for Detroit that Simms was for Denver.  Assuming the teams play according to the ratings, the computer likes Green Bay by 8.1 which is less than the 11 point spread.  The teams rating charts below.

 

In the afternoon we have Oakland at Dallas which is perhaps even a less compelling game with Vegas having Dallas as a 2 touchdown favorite while the computer picks them by 12.  But with Dallas' last 2 games, even with one being a win, being two of their worst games of the season and Oakland coming off arguably their best, we can hope for a competitive game.

The evening NFL game is the Giants at Denver.  While neither team is highly ranked currently, it does have the makings of a great game as both teams are trying to turn around what looked like good seasons early but have gone downhill the past few weeks, and stay in the playoff race in their divisions.  As can be seen in the chart below, Denver has had two completely different seasons, oddly the bye week was when things changed, and the Giants were in the same boat but seem to have righted the ship last week.  The computer still gives Denver some credit, especially with them playing at home and picks them by 2.2 while Vegas has the Giants by 7.  Which teams will show up?

And not to be overlooked, in college, Texas visits Texas A&M hoping to keep their BCS championship game hopes alive where they are the Vegas pick by 22 while the computer likes them by only 13.1.  Texas has been pretty consistent but Texas A&M hasn't so the result of this game will hinge on what Texas A&M team shows up.

 

If you like the charts above and want to see more, or are just interested in seeing detailed picks against the spread for all of the college and NFL games, take a look at the newsletter subscription now available at half price for the remainder of the season.

Ratings Trends and Charts

Computer ratings are great in that they process a bunch of data and spew out a rating, but a simple number or ranking oftentimes doesn't tell the whole story.  Some teams are very consistent and others are all over the place and there may be trends in teams steadily improving or not.  One can look at standard deviations and raw numbers over time, but there is nothing like visualizing it.

To that end, I've created charts for all NFL and FBS teams that show the current rating for reference, each weeks rating for the year, and then dots representing how each game contributes to the overall rating.  The dots are interesting as the size represents the weight of the game and green represents games won and red games lost.

Below is the chart for New England.  You can see that after a slow start and some up and down games, they've been pretty consistent even with the loss to Indy.

If you are interested in seeing all the charts for all NFL and FBS teams, sign up for the weekly newsletter which includes the charts along with details on picks against the spread which despite some up and down weeks are still doing pretty well at 357-278-10 for college and 91-65-4 for the NFL.  The price for the newsletter has been cut in half to $10 for the remainder of the season so sign up and take advantage of the offer today.

2009 Week 11 NFL Projections

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 11 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

At the top, New Orleans is projected to finish with 1-loss but still has a 27% chance of finishing undefeated.  Between hosting New England and Dallas and having to visit Atlanta and Carolina, the computer says the most likely event is 1 loss.  Close behind them, Indianapolis, after narrowly getting past Baltimore, is now projected to have 1 loss with a 19% chance of no losses.

The projected AFC playoff teams are presently Indy, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, with Pittsburgh and then one of Baltimore, Denver, or Jacksonville as wildcards at 9-7.  In the NFC the playoff teams would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, and Dallas or Philly with Philly or Dallas and then one of the Giants, Green Bay, and Atlanta.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New Orleans	16-0	43.0	0.0	41.7
Indianapolis	13-3	28.1	26.5	18.3
Denver	13-3	34.4	24.0	24.1
Minnesota	13-3	32.0	22.3	24.7
Cincinnati	11-5	29.4	19.8	25.3
Dallas	11-5	31.1	19.6	26.6
Atlanta	10-6	31.0	27.6	19.1
Pittsburgh	10-6	28.5	25.7	18.9
Baltimore	10-6	28.8	24.5	20.6
New England	10-6	27.5	24.1	19.8
Philadelphia	10-6	26.9	18.9	24.5
Arizona	9-7	26.9	26.3	17.0
Houston	9-7	29.5	24.5	20.9
San Diego	9-7	29.8	23.9	21.6
Green Bay	9-7	28.4	22.0	22.4
NY Giants	9-7	29.3	20.4	24.9
San Francisco	9-7	28.0	19.8	24.2
NY Jets	9-7	30.4	19.3	26.5
Chicago	9-7	27.2	18.7	24.8
Miami	9-7	26.3	16.2	26.2
Jacksonville	6-10	26.6	25.6	17.0
Buffalo	6-10	28.7	24.3	20.4
Seattle	6-10	28.1	23.8	20.3
Carolina	5-11	33.1	29.6	16.7
Oakland	5-11	31.6	19.3	27.7
Tennessee	5-11	26.4	17.6	25.4
Cleveland	4-12	29.8	23.3	22.3
Kansas City	3-13	33.3	22.7	25.3
St Louis	3-13	32.4	20.8	27.4
Washington	2-14	43.2	40.6	0.0
Detroit	2-14	35.6	30.3	16.6
Tampa Bay	0-16	44.8	39.0	0.0

2009 Week 11 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 11 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted in a few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there are still 2.  New Orleans wins easily and Indy narrowly and both stay undefeated and #1 and #2 in the rankings.  New England stays #3 even with the loss and there is a new #4 in Minnesota replacing Cincinnati who drops to #7.  It seems the #4 spot is cursed as the last few weeks they've been upset.  Baltimore fits in at #5 even with a 5-5 record due to the losses being very close and/or on the road and San Diego makes a strong move to #6.

The computer came back going 9-6-1 against the spread this week but stunk it up picking winners going only 9-7 against Vegas' 12-4.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	91.401	10-0	78.657	+0, +0.336
2	Indianapolis	89.567	10-0	81.430	+0, +0.294
3	New England	88.132	7-3	80.922	+0, +0.699
4	Minnesota	85.884	9-1	77.435	+3, +0.046
5	Baltimore	85.486	5-5	81.886	+0, -0.838
6	San Diego	84.698	7-3	80.730	+8, +2.315
7	Cincinnati	84.538	7-3	80.984	-3, -2.602
8	Philadelphia	84.193	6-4	80.114	+4, +1.226
9	Pittsburgh	84.084	6-4	79.998	-3, -1.915
10	Arizona	84.048	7-3	79.865	-2, -0.573
11	Dallas	83.794	7-3	79.364	-2, -0.765
12	Houston	82.753	5-5	81.536	-2, -1.213
13	Atlanta	82.695	5-5	82.739	-2, -0.338
14	Miami	82.583	5-5	83.051	+4, +1.311
15	NY Giants	82.080	6-4	81.211	+4, +1.210
16	NY Jets	81.889	4-6	82.841	-1, +0.062
17	Tennessee	81.597	4-6	83.186	+3, +0.728
18	Denver	81.283	6-4	81.761	-5, -1.611
19	Green Bay	81.234	6-4	78.268	-2, -0.129
20	San Francisco	80.887	4-6	81.610	-4, -0.875
21	Jacksonville	79.368	6-4	80.466	+2, -0.066
22	Carolina	79.012	4-6	81.825	+0, -0.756
23	Chicago	78.871	4-6	80.021	-2, -1.261
24	Buffalo	77.060	3-7	81.866	+1, +0.145
25	Kansas City	76.697	3-7	80.893	+2, +2.343
26	Seattle	76.664	3-7	80.936	-2, -1.027
27	Washington	75.614	3-7	78.681	-1, +1.195
28	Oakland	74.805	3-7	81.353	+3, +2.436
29	Tampa Bay	74.166	1-9	82.210	-1, +0.473
30	St Louis	72.784	1-9	81.478	-1, -0.022
31	Cleveland	71.759	1-9	82.003	-1, -0.965
32	Detroit	70.109	2-8	80.418	+0, -0.179

2009 Week 11 NFL Preview

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer went 2-1-1 last week in interesting games and a disappointing 5-9-1 overall but is still well above 0.500 for the season at 82-59-3.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

Atlanta visits the Giants and for some reason Vegas likes the Giants by 7.5!  The computer also has them winning but my a much closer 0.8 so perhaps an opportunity.  Both teams are 5-4 and Atlanta has faced a tougher schedule.

I would not want to be the Jets going to visit New England.  With revenge and atoning for last weeks letting Indy off the hook in play, New England should be rearing to go and Vegas picks them by 12.  Alas, the computer does remember a bit of the early season Jets and only has them losing by 8.6.

Indy goes on the road to Baltimore trying to keep their undefeated season alive and Vegas does pick them by 2.  Alas, the computer likes Baltimore at home to not just cover but win the game, albeit by 0.1, a virtual tie.  Baltimore plays very well at home but Indy plays well on the road so could be a great game.

In a game that could decide the AFC West, Denver host San Diego and with two teams that have both been up and down this year and with Orton questionable it may not be the Denver team the computer has rated and picks to win by 3.5.  But Vegas can take the injury into account and has San Diego by 6.  Strong pick if you think Orton can play or Denver can play as well with Simms.

Enjoy the games.

2009 Week 12 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 12 (games played thru 21-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Alabama remains #1, in fact increasing their margin over #2 Texas by just over half a ratings point making it right at 1 point now.  Behind them Florida and TCU swap places but are still in a virtual tie just a point and a half behind Texas.  It is interesting to note that in comparing Texas and TCU, they've now played a common opponent, Wyoming, both at Wyoming, with TCU winning by 35 and Texas by 31.  The computer doesn't single out specific games like this but looks at the entire season, but still interesting to see how close they are.

Behind the top teams there isn't much movement until #11 where Arkansas moves up 6 spots to #11 replacing OU who drops 4 to #16.  Texas Tech was the reason OU dropped and they leap 12 spots to #12.  Stanford also drops 4 spots after their loss to #16.

I have added 3 championship games to the schedule for projecting games and that means only 5 are projected to finish undefeated with Alabama beating Florida.

The computer had a good week against the spread going 28-23-1 and had a push with Vegas going 40-12 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	89.158	11-0	68.684	+0, +0.119
2	Texas	88.119	11-0	67.892	+0, -0.490
3	Florida	86.644	11-0	67.766	+1, -0.130
4	TCU	86.551	11-0	67.033	-1, -0.488
5	Oregon	82.829	9-2	72.343	+0, -0.567
6	Cincinnati	82.579	10-0	66.504	+0, -0.699
7	Virginia Tech	82.514	8-3	73.320	+1, +0.097
8	Boise St	82.461	11-0	63.140	-1, -0.277
9	Georgia Tech	81.691	10-1	72.457	+1, -0.191
10	Clemson	81.399	8-3	69.505	-1, -0.892
11	Arkansas	79.961	7-4	70.400	+6, +1.220
12	Texas Tech	79.472	7-4	67.975	+12, +2.820
13	LSU	79.300	8-3	70.532	+0, -0.381
14	Miami FL	79.102	8-3	72.198	+1, -0.016
15	Oklahoma	78.843	6-5	70.327	-4, -2.506
16	Stanford	78.755	7-4	70.893	-4, -2.290
17	Oregon St	78.673	8-3	69.196	-3, -0.738
18	Pittsburgh	78.456	9-1	66.692	-2, -0.646
19	Ohio State	78.404	10-2	66.247	-1, -0.161
20	Mississippi	78.044	8-3	68.091	+0, +0.133
21	Nebraska	77.370	8-3	67.531	+0, -0.367
22	Penn State	77.269	10-2	64.755	+5, +1.625
23	Oklahoma St	77.181	9-2	67.191	-4, -1.102
24	North Carolina	77.100	8-3	69.718	+6, +1.652
25	Arizona	76.853	6-4	71.248	-2, -0.430
26	Southern Cal	76.514	7-3	72.110	-4, -0.787
27	California	76.460	8-3	71.057	+4, +1.091
28	Iowa	75.415	10-2	67.883	+0, -0.226
29	Auburn	75.316	7-4	69.999	+3, +0.080
30	Tennessee	75.312	6-5	68.729	-1, -0.311
31	Connecticut	74.722	5-5	69.998	+2, -0.339
32	Utah	74.574	9-2	65.028	+3, +0.096
33	West Virginia	74.536	7-3	68.670	+3, +0.235
34	Brigham Young	74.460	9-2	65.716	+3, +0.820
35	Florida St	73.664	6-5	72.303	-1, -1.286
36	Kentucky	73.379	7-4	67.796	+10, +1.238
37	Boston College	73.335	7-4	69.157	-11, -2.481
38	Missouri	72.573	7-4	68.779	+3, -0.074
39	Houston	72.406	9-2	63.716	+11, +0.522
40	Georgia	72.265	6-5	71.938	-2, -1.319
41	Navy	72.239	8-3	65.969	+2, -0.233
42	UCLA	72.206	6-5	71.641	+5, +0.110
43	Texas A&M	71.980	6-5	68.283	+11, +1.475
44	South Florida	71.905	7-3	65.221	-2, -0.596
45	Notre Dame	71.810	6-5	68.952	-5, -1.049
46	Central Michigan	71.655	9-2	60.312	-1, -0.570
47	Rutgers	71.542	7-3	61.021	-22, -4.419
48	Air Force	71.437	7-5	64.345	-9, -1.684
49	Mississippi St	71.330	4-7	72.300	-1, -0.676
50	Wisconsin	71.275	8-3	65.990	-6, -0.951
51	South Carolina	71.243	6-5	72.116	+0, -0.021
52	Wake Forest	71.116	4-7	71.857	-3, -0.873
53	East Carolina	70.441	7-4	66.988	+5, +0.879
54	Nevada	70.395	8-3	62.496	-1, -0.347
55	Washington	69.711	3-7	74.866	+0, -0.784
56	Michigan St	69.622	6-6	67.122	-4, -1.370
57	Temple	69.402	9-2	59.831	+7, +1.307
58	Arizona St	69.049	4-7	69.103	-2, -1.188
59	Virginia	68.792	3-8	73.402	+0, -0.139
60	Fresno St	68.786	7-4	65.306	-3, -1.010
61	Kansas	68.273	5-6	69.301	+1, +0.001
62	Minnesota	68.157	6-6	69.940	+1, +0.004
63	Southern Miss	68.098	7-4	61.784	+3, +0.128
64	Duke	68.070	5-6	68.356	-4, -0.345
65	Central Florida	67.729	7-4	64.895	+5, +0.897
66	Troy	67.560	8-3	62.207	+3, +0.617
67	Iowa St	67.473	6-6	66.717	-2, -0.526
68	Kansas St	67.336	6-6	67.452	+0, +0.271
69	Marshall	66.951	6-5	66.564	-2, -0.335
70	Purdue	66.850	5-7	67.806	+3, +0.896
71	Northwestern	66.691	8-4	62.983	+1, +0.716
72	Baylor	66.076	4-7	70.408	-11, -2.280
73	Syracuse	65.940	4-7	68.327	+14, +3.005
74	Louisiana Tech	65.687	3-8	66.948	+2, +0.446
75	North Carolina St	65.455	4-7	67.113	-4, -0.875
76	Bowling Green	65.343	6-5	64.559	-1, -0.181
77	Middle Tennessee St	65.238	8-3	59.486	+0, +0.454
78	SMU	64.966	6-5	65.532	+0, +0.221
79	Northern Illinois	64.703	7-4	57.096	-5, -1.118
80	Ohio U.	64.502	8-3	60.779	-1, -0.000
81	Louisville	64.323	4-7	68.705	+0, +0.159
82	Maryland	63.842	2-9	71.257	+1, +0.229
83	Alabama-Birmingham	63.768	5-6	65.688	-3, -0.550
84	Michigan	63.296	5-7	64.157	+0, -0.256
85	Colorado	63.215	3-8	70.017	+6, +1.207
86	Illinois	63.085	3-7	67.487	+0, -0.066
87	Idaho	62.667	7-4	64.588	-2, -0.565
88	Tulsa	62.465	4-7	63.826	+1, +0.038
89	UNLV	62.460	4-7	67.220	-1, -0.136
90	Wyoming	62.258	5-6	68.335	+0, +0.199
91	Indiana	62.190	4-8	66.043	-9, -1.660
92	Vanderbilt	62.013	2-10	70.289	+0, +0.216
93	Buffalo	61.835	4-7	62.387	+5, +1.183
94	Utah St	61.481	3-8	66.478	-1, -0.212
95	Hawaii	61.009	5-6	62.374	+2, +0.139
96	San Diego St	60.737	4-7	65.285	-2, -0.819
97	Colorado St	59.845	3-8	67.682	-1, -1.095
98	Western Michigan	59.499	5-6	61.301	+1, -0.650
99	Kent St	59.453	5-6	60.578	-4, -1.747
100	UTEP	58.744	3-8	63.349	+2, -0.507
101	Louisiana-Monroe	58.443	6-5	60.622	-1, -1.048
102	Florida Atlantic	58.126	3-7	63.499	-1, -1.147
103	Toledo	57.612	5-6	61.528	+0, +0.157
104	Memphis	55.941	2-9	66.215	+1, -0.220
105	Arkansas St	55.765	2-8	60.677	-1, -1.333
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.396	6-5	59.574	+3, +0.266
107	Washington St	55.336	1-10	73.284	-1, -0.160
108	Army	54.845	5-6	59.028	+2, -0.142
109	Akron	54.441	2-9	64.058	+2, -0.157
110	San Jose St	54.076	1-9	68.873	-3, -1.332
111	Miami OH	53.517	1-11	67.538	-3, -1.832
112	Tulane	53.292	3-8	64.639	+0, -0.558
113	Rice	52.712	2-9	66.301	+3, +0.906
114	Florida Int'l	52.352	3-8	64.727	+1, -0.202
115	New Mexico	52.305	1-10	66.068	+2, +1.372
116	Ball St	52.199	1-10	61.842	-3, -0.714
117	North Texas	51.955	2-9	59.864	-3, -0.930
118	New Mexico St	50.061	3-8	62.522	+0, -0.071
119	Eastern Michigan	45.006	0-11	63.847	+0, -1.607
120	Western Kentucky	43.684	0-10	62.310	+0, -0.132