A recap of week 3 of 2024 USTA League Nationals Mixed

Week 3 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with all of the 18 & Over Mixed being played this weekend, plus a few 55 & Over events.  A recap of 55 & Over will follow, here are the Mixed recaps.

The 18 & Over Mixed 6.0 was played in Surprise and three 4-0 teams made the semis in Florida, Hawaii, and Southwest, and they were joined by Middle States, perhaps fortunate to get in ahead of PNW on the broken standings tie-breaker as they were tied on sets lost and PNW won more sets, but the USTA doesn't consider won sets.  Middle States won their semi over Flordai 2-1 as did Hawaii over Southwest, and then Hawaii won the title.  The simulation had Southwest and Middle States as the top-2 favorites with Hawaii and contender and Florida just outside that group.

Also in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 8.0 and they also had three 4-0 teams in PNW, Hawaii, and SoCal with New England joining the group at 3-1 winning the courts tie-breaker.  In the semis PNW beat New England and SoCal beat Hawaii before PNW took the title.  The simulation had Hawaii as a favorite and the other three semifinalists as contenders.

Last in Surprise was the 18 & Over Mixed 10.0 and with just 10 teams competing, fourth place was a 2-2 NorCal team that joined 3-1 SoCal and MoValley and 4-0 Intermountain.  NorCal pulled the upset over Intermountain in one semi while SoCal won the other, and no winner is listed on TennisLink although the 3rd/4th match does show a winner.  The simulation had SoCal, Intermountain, and NorCal as the top-3 favorites, just MoValley the surprise to make the semis.

Orlando also hosted 18 & Over Mixed with the 7.0 there and Caribbean and SoCal advancing as 4-0 teams joined by 3-1 Hawaii and Mid-Atlantic.  Mid-Atlantic pulled the upset in the semis to face SoCal with SoCal coming out on top.  The simulation liked SoCal as the top favorite, but also Hawaii there too, and Mid-Atlantic and Caribbean as contenders so it did pretty well.

And in the 18 & Over Mixed 9.0, three 4-0 teams advanced with Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern, which were joined by solitary 3-1 New England.  Florida and Mid-Atlantic won their semis and Mid-Atlantic took the title.  The simulation had Florida and Mid-Atlantic as two of the favorites with Southern and New England both as contenders, so again a good prediction.

Congratulations to all the champions.

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16 (NorCal missing)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.62 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.53 / 3.45
Favorites: Hawaii, Middle States, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southwest, Texas

Again, a very competitive event it appears with a very low chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, just one projected to have that record.  But it will likely still take a 3-1 record to make the semis, but there are a lot of contenders vying for it.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed.

Teams: 14
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 68% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.52 / 4.25
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.44 / 4.32
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic
Contenders: Intermountain, Middle States, Midwest, MoValley, New England, NorCal, Southern

This event is wide open with no team having a most likely record of 4-0, although two of the teams have a greater than 30% chance of doing so.  Then I don't think I've ever seen this long a list of contenders and there is a chance there is a tie at 2-2 for the last spot which I believe would be a first.

What do you think?

A recap of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals

Week 2 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have eight new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with a full four events this first weekend.

The 18 & Over 3.5 men were in San Diego and they had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Intermountain taking it despite having the same court record and sets lost as SoCal, but they lost fewer games so they advanced even though their game winning percentage was not as good, another case of the flawed tie-breakers choosing the wrong team.  They joined 4-0 Middle States, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic in the semis and Intermountain came through in their semi 4-1 to face Mid-Atlantic who won 3-2, where Intermountain took the title.  The simulation had three of the semi-finalists as favorites or contenders, but Intermountain was a bit of a surprise.

The 18 & Over 3.5 women had a 5-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, Florida and SoCal taking them on court record.  SoCal took out NorCal 4-1 while Florida beat Intermountain 3-2 before Florida won the final 4-1.  The simulation had Florida, SoCal, and Intermountain but NorCal was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men were in Scottsdale and just one 4-0 team, Florida, with 5-way tie for the remaining three spots saw Southern, PNW, and Intermountain take the spots on court record.  Intermountain beat Florida 5-0 while Southern took out PNW 3-2, before Southern won the final 5-0.  The simulation liked liked Intermountain, Southern, and Florida, but PNW was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women saw three 4-0 teams in Middle States, SoCal, and NorCal, and then a 4-way tie for the last spot with Eastern taking it on court record.  Middle States beat Eastern 4-1 while SoCal beat NorCal 3-2, and then SoCal won the final 4-1.  The four semi-finalists were all in the simulation's top-6, so not bad.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men were in Surprise and had three 4-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic, Southern only losing one court, and then a four way tie for the last spot with Intermountain taking it on fewer sets lost over NorCal and Midwest.  Southern ended up winning it beating Intermountain 4-1 and then SoCal 3-2 after SoCal beat Mid-Atlantic 3-2.  The simulation liked Southern as the favorite with SoCal next and Had NorCal as a favorite along with Intermountain as a contender as was Mid-Atlantic, so a very good prediction.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women had just a 2-way tie at 4-0 for two spots, Southern, and Mid-Atlantic, and then four teams vying for the last two spots at 3-1 with NorCal and SoCal taking the spots on court record.  The semis saw Southern beat SoCal 3-2 and NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic by the same score, and then Southern won 3-2 in the final.  The simulation had Mid-Atlantic and SoCal as favorites and NorCal and Southern as contenders.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women were in Orlando and had five tied at 3-1 for one semi spot and it went to Southwest on court record, them joining 4-0 Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, and Florida.  Mid-Atlantic beat Southwest in one semi 3-2, and Florida beat SoCal also 3-2 where Mid-Atlantic won the title also 3-2.  The simulation had Southwest, SoCal, and Florida as the top three teams with Mid-Atlantic a contender, so not too bad.

Last, the event I was at, the 40 & Over 4.0 men had four 4-0 teams, but very nearly had five before my team upset Midwest in our last match.  The irony of my team "saving" the USTA from five 4-0 teams is not lost on me as I would have had fun writing about it happening again, but my team fought and pulled out the win much to New England's delight as they would have been the 5th 4-0 team going home.   It is actually the second time a PNW team upset a 4-0 bound team avoided five 4-0 teams in just two weeks.  Florida, Southern, and Eastern were the other semi-finalists and Florida beat New England and Eastern got by Southern with three match TB wins, and then Florida won the final.  The simulation had Eastern, Midwest, and Southern as favorites and Florida as a contender, just New England was a bit of a surprise.

On a personal note, playing at the National Campus was a blast, it was my first time there and it is a great facility.  Not making the semis we even took the opportunity to play on clay on Sunday since we rarely have the chance.  We had a very tough schedule facing the teams that finish 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th and they had a combined 14-2 record, one loss to us (Midwest) and the other loss when two of those played each other.  But we still had a great time and had competitive matches, I alone had three match tie-breaks, one going to 20-18!  Thanks to the USTA for putting on a well run event.

Congratulations to all the champions.

2024 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 2 Preview / Simulation

After day 1 of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals, here is how things stand.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women favorites to make the semis are now Florida, SoCal, and Southwest with Mid-Atlantic, PNW, and Intermountain trying to find a way in to the last spot.  Just an 11% chance of four 4-0 teams, no change of five.

For the 40 & Over 4.0 men, there remain five teams with a great chance of a semis berth, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Southern, and Texas, with New England trying to play spoiler and get in.  There is still a 2% chance of five 4-0 teams, and 19% chance of four of them.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women's favorites are New England, NorCal, and Mid-Atlantic, with Florida or Southern being most likely for the last spot, but Midwest, PNW, and Texas lurking.  Just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Then the 40 & Over 4.5 men have a pretty clear four favorites in Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, SoCal, and Southern, Midwest and Missouri Valley trying to play spoiler.  Just a 7% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Moving to 40 & Over 3.0 women, Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, and SoCal all have a better than 50% chance of making the semis, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas lurking.  It appears there will be a 3-1 team in the semis.

And the 40 & Over 3.0 men, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and Southern are all favorites for the semis, MoValley and Texas could spoil that grouping.  It appears this will be tight with two 3-1 teams expected to make it.

The 18 & Over division has the 3.5 women playing and five teams have a great chance at the semis, those being Eastern, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and SoCal, with NorCal trying to play spoiler.  There is a 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 16% of four.

Last, the 18 & Over men favorites are Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, and SoCal with NorCal trying to find their way in.  A 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 7% of four.

Good luck everyone!

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5.6%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.46 / 4.26
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.41 / 4.31
Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Intermountain, Midwest, New England, Pacific Northwest, Texas

Just three favorites, leaving the door open for one of the contenders to grab a spot.  A 3-1 team almost certainly makes the semis and I show a bunch of teams finishing with 12-8 or 11-9 court records so could be close.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.4%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 96% / 5
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.44 / 4.17
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.33 / 4.24
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, Southern

One team is well ahead of the others and is the only one most likely to be 4-0, so there could be a big tie at 3-1 for the last spot.

What do you think?