What if the NFL used the BCS?

Thankfully the NFL doesn't and we have normal playoffs, but Alex at the Bleacher Report went through the effort the use one human poll, my computer ratings, and three other computers to come up with "BCS" standings for the NFL.  Take a look here.

College Football Week 14 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1 ahead of Alabama

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week with Alabama and Florida unchanged behind them.  Kansas State moves up 2 spots to #4 moving ahead of Texas A&M and Notre Dame.

Why didn't Alabama move up after their win over Georgia?  Simply put, as rated last week, Alabama was expected to win by more than they did resulting in their rating actually dropping slightly.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, and Alabama does move ahead of Oregon to #4.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.708	11-1	72.868	+0, -0.275
2	Alabama	91.036	12-1	72.287	+0, -0.636
3	Florida	88.747	11-1	75.401	+0, -0.541
4	Kansas St	88.095	11-1	74.068	+2, +0.726
5	Texas A&M	87.736	10-2	73.392	-1, -0.657
6	Notre Dame	87.725	12-0	73.827	-1, -0.252
7	Georgia	86.710	11-2	72.920	+0, -0.369
8	South Carolina	85.911	10-2	73.382	+1, -0.457
9	Stanford	85.575	11-2	76.986	-1, -0.844
10	Oklahoma	85.443	10-2	73.981	+1, +0.218
11	LSU	85.129	10-2	73.698	-1, -0.580
12	Oregon St	84.245	9-3	75.103	+0, -0.153
13	Ohio State	83.134	12-0	69.399	+1, -0.220
14	Oklahoma St	82.856	7-5	73.151	-1, -0.881
15	Southern Cal	82.578	7-5	76.202	+0, -0.253
16	Utah St	82.077	10-2	65.887	+0, +0.141
17	Florida St	80.671	11-2	64.763	+0, -0.804
18	Baylor	80.597	7-5	76.201	+5, +0.509
19	Texas	80.465	8-4	75.754	-1, -0.763
20	Wisconsin	80.313	8-5	72.124	+9, +1.936
21	Arizona St	79.907	7-5	73.756	+0, -0.269
22	Arizona	79.844	7-5	74.752	+0, -0.294
23	Clemson	79.835	10-2	67.413	-3, -0.393
24	UCLA	79.676	9-4	74.599	+1, -0.001
25	Michigan	79.205	8-4	72.371	-1, -0.570

College Football Week 13 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week, in fact increasing their lead over Alabama who also improved slightly.  Florida improves the most of any team in the top-10 and moves ahead of Texas A&M to #3.

Oregon's improvement is largely from their win over a good Oregon State team while Alabama played a weak Auburn team but benefited from the SEC winning in general over some non-SEC opponents (Florida over FSU, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson).  And while Florida improved their rating the most, Georgia made the biggest move up to #7, up 4 spots.

What about Notre Dame?  Their rating did improve after their win over USC and they are up to #5, but my computer still says they aren't the best team in the country.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, with Oregon up to #4 ahead of Alabama at #5.  A computer that can't take margin of victory into account has to ding Alabama for a weak Auburn opponent while Oregon benefits from a strong Oregon State team.  We'll see what the actual BCS computers do later today.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.983	11-1	73.073	+0, +1.273
2	Alabama	91.672	11-1	71.655	+0, +0.408
3	Florida	89.288	11-1	75.872	+1, +2.240
4	Texas A&M	88.393	10-2	74.031	-1, +1.033
5	Notre Dame	87.977	12-0	73.981	+1, +1.527
6	Kansas St	87.369	10-1	73.988	-1, +0.341
7	Georgia	87.079	11-1	71.780	+4, +1.798
8	Stanford	86.419	10-2	77.222	+1, +0.892
9	South Carolina	86.368	10-2	73.698	+3, +2.063
10	LSU	85.709	10-2	74.194	-2, +0.075
11	Oklahoma	85.225	9-2	73.541	-1, -0.186
12	Oregon St	84.398	8-3	78.310	-5, -1.845
13	Oklahoma St	83.737	7-4	72.357	+2, -0.014
14	Ohio State	83.354	12-0	69.689	+0, -0.444
15	Southern Cal	82.831	7-5	76.039	-2, -1.393
16	Utah St	81.936	10-2	66.110	+2, -0.504
17	Florida St	81.475	10-2	64.626	-1, -1.868
18	Texas	81.228	8-3	74.529	-1, -1.503
19	Nebraska	81.047	10-2	70.493	+2, -0.494
20	Clemson	80.228	10-2	67.731	+0, -2.070
21	Arizona St	80.176	7-5	74.041	+4, +0.890
22	Arizona	80.138	7-5	75.060	-3, -2.163
23	Baylor	80.088	6-5	76.182	+0, +0.663
24	Michigan	79.775	8-4	72.775	+0, +0.429
25	UCLA	79.677	9-3	73.924	-3, -1.745

BCS Math 11/19/12 Edition - Does Oregon or Florida have a shot?

Two weeks to go in the season and we have a clear #1 in the BCS so the fight is on for making the case for #2.

My computer's performance charts show that Oregon and Alabama have the strongest resumes, but the BCS doesn't agree slotting in Georgia and Florida between them.  And Kansas State is getting little love but Florida State even less.  What would it take for any of these teams to get to #2?

Alabama has a solid hold on #2 this week, but how might that change?  Despite the fact that Auburn is very weak this year (3-8 my #77), the pollsters aren't likely to ding Bama much at all even if they have a close win because it is a rivalry game, so their poll numbers aren't likely to slip.  Their computer numbers could though.  Here are the details:

• Anderson & Hester - At #5 they have a slim lead over Stanford, 0.781 to 0.774 and not that far ahead of Oregon at 0.765.  Stanford just went up 0.019 with their win over Oregon, so with both Stanford (UCLA) and Oregon (Oregon State) playing good opponents, it isn't out of the question that one or both get ahead and drop Alabama to #7 or #8.
• Billingsley - Alabama is #2 but close behind is Kansas State and Oregon.  K-State doesn't play so won't change (Billingsley doesn't change a rating at all during bye weeks, silly) but as mentioned above, Oregon has a chance to improve.
• Colley - Alabama is #4 just ahead of Stanford and Oregon again and could slip at least one spot.
• Massey - Alabama is #3 just ahead of LSU and Stanford but we don't know how close since his ratings aren't updated on his site.  LSU plays Arkansas (50s) so there is less chance to jump ahead, but LSU was just 0.01 back last week so it is possible and Stanford does get UCLA so more opportunity.
• Sagarin - Alabama is #3 fractionally ahead of Stanford and Oregon so again could drop.
• Wolfe - Has Alabama #3 over Georgia and Stanford, but perhaps enough margin to not drop.

This means that what they have this week (four 3rds and a 4th after throwing out the high and low of 2nd and 5th) could slip to 6th, 3rd, 5th, 4th, 4th, 3rd dropping their 0.910 computer average to 0.890 and with no change in their polling numbers their BCS rating to 0.9267.  That isn't near enough for anyone behind to get close, but may still be an interesting twist to see.

And of course, a win in the SEC title game would turn the computers around so it is really all moot.  Win out, and Alabama is in the BCS title game.

Georgia is in a similar situation to Alabama even though they trail them significantly, mainly because they get to play them.  They play a not so great Georgia Tech team (but not as bad as Auburn) so their computer numbers could take a minor hit similar to Alabama's, but if they win the SEC title game that is all moot and they get ahead of Alabama and likely aren't caught by anyone behind them.

Florida is pretty close to Georgia in the BCS ratings, and has a much tougher opponent in FSU this week, but they are already #2 in the computers and aren't going to catch Notre Dame there so won't see any BCS improvement from that.  It would have to come from the polls.  A win would certainly help, and they could get very close to Georgia in the BCS, but they don't get a title game meaning they don't get that last opportunity to improve their numbers and can't get to #2.  Their only hope is one or both of Auburn / Georgia Tech pull the upset, and the better team loses in the SEC title game leaving them as the best 1-loss team from the SEC.  Possible, but not likely.

Oregon still has room to improve in the computers, and gets BCS #15 Oregon State to finish, but that likely isn't enough given that they are 4th in the polls.  Even if their computer numbers improve a spot across the board, they at best get close to Florida but not all the way to Georgia let alone Alabama in the BCS ratings.  Couple that with being left out of the Pac-12 title game (for now) and they simply can't get there.

Now, if FSU beats Florida, their computer and poll numbers have the chance to improve a bit more and they could perhaps even get past Georgia in next weeks BCS ratings, but they'd still not improve enough to be ahead of the Alabama/Georgia winner.  If UCLA were to beat Stanford however, that gets Oregon into the title game against a hot UCLA team that may give them the opportunity to improve their computer and poll numbers even more.  It is highly unlikely they'd pass Alabama should they win the SEC, but it would be very interesting if it game down to Oregon or Georgia in this situation.

Kansas State is just too far back right now and doesn't get a title game, so they will be on the outside looking in.

Florida State?  They can make a statement by beating Florida, but then they get Georgia Tech in the ACC title game which won't help and the computers already (justifiably) hate them so even with a win over Florida, won't be in the running.

So, we can probably expect a Notre Dame vs Alabama/Georgia BCS title game, especially with Matt Barkley out for USC giving Notre Dame a great shot to win that game, but stranger things have happened.  If it isn't Alabama or Georgia, Oregon is probably next in line but they definitely need help. But should they get it, it would be very close and make for some BCS drama in 13 days.

Comparing the 1-loss Contenders - Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Oregon, Kansas State

So we are down to an unbeaten Notre Dame and a bunch of 1-loss teams that want to make their case for being the #2 team and make it to the BCS title game.  So let's take a look at each team, and the best way to do so is with my computer's performance charts.

We'll go in the order the teams will possibly be in tonight's BCS ratings.

First, Alabama.

Alabama has been pretty consistent, but in their most meaningful game lost to Texas A&M.  Their schedule has been reasonably tough, getting a bit stronger as they played more games within the SEC but has dropped to #32 after this week's game and will go down a bit more after Auburn.  Beating a likely 11-1 Georgia or Florida in the SEC title game would certainly bring that back up.

Next, Georgia.

Georgia has not be as consistent nor dominant as Alabama with several somewhat meaningful games well below their current rating.  They do benefit from losing earlier in the year and do have a decent schedule strength at #38.  In my opinion, Alabama is pretty clearly better than Georgia and my computer agrees having Alabama #2 and Georgia way down at #11 because of their loss and other not so great performances.

Next, Florida.

The next SEC team looks similar to Georgia on the surface, some great results but a loss and a couple below par games, but their loss was not as bad, their high is higher, and their schedule, even with playing Jacksonville State this week is stronger at #17.  For this reason, in my opinion, and my computer's analysis too, they are higher rated than Georgia but not as high as Alabama.

Next, we leave the SEC to look at Oregon.

Oregon is very similar to Alabama, good to great results and pretty consistent, but a glaring big red dot in their most meaningful game.  They are hurt by their loss coming a week later than Alabama's, but despite all the pundits saying otherwise, their schedule is about the same as Alabama's.  It wasn't early in the season as the light blue line indicates, but their schedule is mostly at the end and will improve with Oregon State and possibly UCLA.  For this reason, my computer has them slightly ahead of Alabama.  I personally can make a case either way, it is very close.

Next, Kansas State.

Kansas State looks similar to Alabama and Oregon, but their highs were slightly higher consistently mid-season and that garnered them the #1 spot in my computer for several weeks.  However, their loss is noticeably worse than Alabama's or Oregon's and frankly Florida's too, and that pulls them down to #5 in my computer.  But their schedule is tougher than Alabama and Oregon's at #21, similar to Florida's.  The result is a rating still better than Georgia by a significant margin because they didn't have the close wins Georgia has had.

What do you think?  The media consensus seems to be Alabama is the clear #2 but the data and charts above would seem to indicate it isn't as clear cut as they say.  That said, the two teams I'd argue should be considered instead, Oregon and Florida, may not get to play championship games and if so will likely lose out by not being forefront in pollster's minds in 2 weeks.  Worse, the team that would play Alabama would be enhancing their resume by beating them and while I may not think Georgia is as good as Oregon or Florida, they'd likely get the nod.

Will the SEC East play the role of last years SEC West in the BCS?

Last year, we had Alabama and LSU play during the regular season, then with other teams falling by the wayside, the BCS gave us a rematch in the championship game.  Could we have the same thing happen with the SEC again this year, just with the SEC East instead?  It is certainly possible.

Florida and Georgia played the last week of October with Georgia winning 17-9.  Both teams have won out since and could quite possibly be #3 and #4 in the BCS after the rankings come out later today.  Should Notre Dame lose to USC (possible, although perhaps unlikely should Barkley be out), then they move up to #2 and #3 and should Georgia beat Alabama in the SEC championship, you likely have Georgia #1 and Florida #2 in the BCS standings.

Now, a lot has to happen, Georgia beating Georgia Tech, Florida beating FSU, Notre Dame losing, and Georgia beating Alabama, but it is certainly possible.  And after what happened yesterday we can never say the unlikely won't happen.

Of course, we could have the more likely scenario of Alabama beating Georgia and Alabama and Florida being the two SEC teams (my computer at least likes Alabama a lot more than Georgia), but I found it interesting that a reasonable scenario exists where two SEC East teams play for the title rather than two SEC West as we did last year.

Of course, the gotcha in this will be how far K-State and more importantly Oregon fall in the computers and polls.  Both teams have a chance to recover a bit with Texas and Oregon State next week, and if Oregon gets help from UCLA they'd play at 10-2 UCLA in the Pac-12 title game which would also help them in the computers, so don't write them off yet.

College Football Week 12 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon still #1?

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

And after "what happens in November" happened, who is #1?  My computer says Oregon!

Oregon had such a big lead in the ratings last week (5.5 points over Alabama) and the team right behind them K-State also lost, so even though they lost to Stanford and gave up nearly 4.5 ratings points, their rating is still ahead of Alabama's.  Alabama was not helped by playing Western Carolina, and won't really be helped by playing Auburn next week while Oregon will be helped by playing Oregon State, so unless Oregon continues to falter, they could very well stay at the top of the heap in my computer.

What about Notre Dame?  They won convincingly for once, but against a very weak opponent so simply did what they were supposed to do.  Their rating improved ever so slightly and they move up 2 spots, but that was more due to LSU and Oklahoma making their games closer than they should have been and falling.

The SEC does have 4 teams in my top-10, but the Pac-12 now has 3 as well.

It is interesting to note that Ohio State is undefeated and would ordinarily be getting lots of BCS love and national attention, but because they aren't eligible for the post season they are being largely ignored.  My computer says they should be ignored just based on results too as despite being 11-0, are ranked only #14, due in large part to clearly having the weakest schedule of any team in the top-15.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame now on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, with Alabama down at #4.  Oregon and K-State fall all the way to #7 and #8 respectively.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	92.710	10-1	72.007	+0, -4.429
2	Alabama	91.264	10-1	72.030	+1, -0.396
3	Texas A&M	87.360	9-2	73.808	+2, -0.418
4	Florida	87.048	10-1	74.442	+0, -0.919
5	Kansas St	87.028	10-1	73.706	-3, -5.794
6	Notre Dame	86.450	11-0	72.749	+2, +0.292
7	Oregon St	86.243	8-2	77.567	+5, +1.022
8	LSU	85.634	9-2	73.696	-1, -1.202
9	Stanford	85.527	9-2	77.113	+4, +2.240
10	Oklahoma	85.411	8-2	72.875	-4, -1.639
11	Georgia	85.281	10-1	71.269	-1, -0.451
12	South Carolina	84.305	9-2	72.255	-1, -1.027
13	Southern Cal	84.224	7-4	75.594	-4, -1.787
14	Ohio State	83.798	11-0	69.212	+3, +1.441
15	Oklahoma St	83.751	7-3	70.975	-1, +1.024
16	Florida St	83.343	10-1	63.571	-1, +0.646
17	Texas	82.731	8-2	74.297	-1, +0.093
18	Utah St	82.440	9-2	67.703	+1, +0.734
19	Arizona	82.301	7-4	75.533	+1, +0.927
20	Clemson	82.298	10-1	67.080	-2, +0.409
21	Nebraska	81.541	9-2	70.585	+0, +1.253
22	UCLA	81.422	9-2	73.352	+0, +1.685
23	Baylor	79.425	5-5	75.871	+16, +3.676
24	Michigan	79.346	8-3	71.466	+4, +1.119
25	Arizona St	79.286	6-5	73.490	-2, -0.324

Will we have a BCS title game between undefeated teams? Or can the SEC find their way back in?

With Alabama's loss, we are down to 3 undefeated teams vying for participating in the BCS title game; Oregon, Kansas State, and Notre Dame.  There are only a few games left, so there is a good chance 2 will stay that way, but what are the exact chances of that occurring?

The 3 teams in question have the following chances of finishing perfect:

• Oregon - 81.7%
• Kansas State - 78.7%
• Notre Dame - 37.8%

It is safe to assume that any 2 undefeated results in them facing each other.  It is also probably safe to assume that if Oregon and K-State do it, Notre Dame gets left out.

So, there is a 64.3% chance of Oregon and Kansas meeting as undefeated teams.  But if one of them falters, Notre Dame could fill in.  Running the different permutations results in a 75.7% chance of some combination of these teams facing each other as undefeated teams.

If you look at that number, there is a good gap between it and 100%.  So what happens then?  It is probable that should the SEC champ finish with 1-loss, they would be the choice if 2 of the aforementioned teams have a loss.  So what are the chances of a 1-loss SEC champ?

Alabama has the best chance at 70.4%, but Georgia has a 27.5% chance too, and should Georgia falter and let Florida in the title game, they have a 20% chance.  If we put these permutations together, we have a 99.2% chance of a 1-loss SEC champ.

That means that there is still a 24.1% chance of an SEC team making it to the BCS title game.  Trust me, stranger things have happened.

What will it take for Oregon to get to #2 in the BCS? Do they need a Notre Dame loss?

So, this week's BCS rankings are out and Oregon moves up to #3, thanks to Notre Dame faltering a bit in the polls, but they are still behind Kansas State by enough that it isn't a given that they can catch and pass them.  So what would it take to do so?

Oregon has an advantage in the polls, 71 points or 0.0247 in the Harris Poll and 29 points or 0.0197 in the Coaches Poll.  They have a larger deficit than this advantage in the computers though, a 5th vs 3rd, but more importantly a 0.09 gap.  This gap is larger than the combined 0.0444 advantage in the polls, thus they are behind Kansas State.

Let's assume that Oregon keeps the same advantage in the polls.  This means they need to marrow the gap in the computers to at most 0.0443, or given the way the averaging works, 0.04.  This effectively means they need to move up 1 spot in every computer and 2 spots in one.  Here is how.

Kansas State is 2nd is 3 computers and 3rd in 3.  Throwing out the high and low and this is 2nd in two and 3rd in two leading to their 0.940 score.  Oregon is 4th in two, 5th in three, and 7th in one.  Throwing out their high and low and you get 4th in one and 5th in three resulting in their 0.850.  To get to the 0.900 they need, they'd need to get to 3rd in two and 4th in two, but really when the high is thrown out, it needs to be 3rd in three and 4th in two.

One of the teams ahead of them in three of the computers is Florida.  They do have a weak schedule with Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State before finishing with Florida State, but with FSU even not being respected by the computers, it is entirely plausible that Oregon gets past Florida in at least 5 of the 6 computers.  This alone would get them to 4th in the four counting or 0.880.

To get to 3rd in three like they need, they'll then need to get past Notre Dame, Kansas State, or Alabama in three of the computers.  It is unlikely they'd get by Alabama in any, particularly with Bama getting a quality opponent in the SEC title game, so it would need to be Kansas State or Notre Dame.

Kansas State's remaining schedule is good, although perhaps not quite as good as Oregon's, especially if Oregon gets a UCLA or USC that wins out in the Pac-12 title game.  So it is again entirely plausible that they get to 3rd in at least one computer simply based on schedule, probably Wolfe where they are already 4th to K-State's 3rd.  They'd need to make up a little more ground in the other computers.

That leaves perhaps 2 computers they still need to get to third in.  Notre Dame has played a tough schedule thus far, but their finish is slightly weaker than Kansas State's.  So this too opens the door for Oregon to get by.  Oregon is already 4th to Notre Dame's 3rd in one computer, so this one is likely.  The other where Notre Dame is 3rd is in Sagarin where Oregon is 7th though, so this may be tougher.

The challenge for Oregon is that if Notre Dame happens to beat USC, but USC beats UCLA, Oregon will have to play what appears to be a weaker USC in the Pac-12 title game and they may not get quite as much help from the computers.

At this point, I'd say it is likely that Oregon gets to 3rd in two computers, but may be looking for a third 3rd to get past Kansas State, it will be very close.  Of course the polls could sway things either way with just a few votes.

So what it may ultimately take for Oregon to get to #2 in the BCS is for Notre Dame to lose.  That is going to help them in the polls a bit (not as much room for improvement there), but more importantly in the computers as this would almost for sure get them close enough to K-State to make up the deficit.

My prediction is that USC does beat Notre Dame (game in Los Angeles) and so this is moot and Oregon gets the help they need to get to #2, but if they don't, they very well could get the short end of the stick and be #3 to K-State in the BCS by every so small a margin.

What do you think?  Leave a comment.

Will Oregon or Kansas State get shafted by the BCS and BCS computers?

The 4 undefeated teams atop last week's BCS rankings all won yesterday, some easier than others.  Several teams still have tests ahead of them, but with just a few games to go my projections have all 4 teams finishing undefeated.  This means we'll be leaving it up to the BCS to pick 2 of the 4 to play in the championship game.

To help with this analysis, lets use my BCS rankings since they tell us more about how the BCS computers might behave.

Should Alabama win out, it is pretty safe to assume they'll be one of the top-2 teams.  They had a good lead last week and beating LSU is not going to hurt them as it will only help them in the computers and unless voters decide to ding them for letting it be close and having to pull it out (they won't), their lead is safe.  Further, they still have Texas A&M (#14), Auburn (#79), and likely Georgia (#6) remaining which won't hurt them.  Anything short of narrow/fluke wins that sway the voters will result in them being in the top-2 of the final BCS rankings.

So, we are left to picking 1 team from the remaining 3.

Kansas State is currently in the #2 spot and they too had a decent lead, so this shouldn't change this week since they beat a quality opponent in Oklahoma State.  They have TCU (#35), Baylor (my #57), and Texas (my #15) remaining which isn't quite as strong as Alabama's, but shouldn't hurt them in the computers where they are already tied for #1 with Notre Dame.  So they have the inside shot at #2, but they won't have a championship game to sway the voters with.

Notre Dame was #3 last week but that may change.  They played a weaker opponent which may hurt them in the computers, but they may lose some voters because of their narrow OT win against Pitt as well.  They will likely fall to #4.  They have BC (#108), Wake Forest (#75), and USC (#22) remaining which isn't as strong as either team in front of them so that could hurt them a bit.  They will likely need some convincing wins to sway the voters to get ahead of an undefeated Kansas State.

Oregon was #4 last week but very very close to Notre Dame.  Their win over USC will help them in the computers where they had their biggest deficit, but they don't have as much room to improve in the polls, and while their win over USC wasn't ever really in doubt, they did give up 51 points so some voters might not be inclined to improve them where they can.  They have Cal (#70), Stanford (#13), and Oregon State (#8) plus possibly UCLA (#17) or USC (#22) remaining, so have the most opportunity to improve in the computers where they need it.

So, if we rule out Notre Dame, simply because they have impressed the least and won't get help from the computers the last few weeks, which of Kansas State or Oregon will get shafted by the BCS?

Even with the tough closing schedule, I think it is unlikely that an undefeated Oregon gets past an undefeated Kansas State in the computers.  On the other hand, unless Oregon stumbles and has an unexpectedly close win, it is perhaps unlikely that Kansas State gets past Oregon in the polls.  Plus Oregon gets the extra game to impress voters, although Kansas State did a good job of scheduling their game with Texas for the same week.

I'll post more analysis after the BCS comes out today, but it will be very very close IMHO.

College Football Week 5 BCS Algorithm Ratings and Rankings - A first look at a BCS compatible algorithm

I post my regular ratings starting with week 1 of the season, but also calculate a set of ratings using a BCS compatible algorithm.  The latter does not use margin of victory, which makes it a far less accurate predictor of games, and also makes the ratings frankly pretty silly looking the first few weeks of the year, so I haven't posted them until this week.

The top-25 is below, and you will see that Florida is #1 here as they are in the regular ratings.  LSU makes a big move to #2 and they are followed by K-State, Georgia, and Oregon State.

Where is Alabama?  They are down at #9.  Understanding why this is can be educational as to why the BCS handicaps the computers.

Alabama has played a 2-loss Michigan, a 2-loss Mississippi, 4-loss Arkansas and Florida Atlantic, and a 1-loss Western Kentucky.  Because the computer can't take into account the margin of victory, while undefeated, the schedule isn't that strong and no single team is very strong.

LSU on the other hand just made a big leap and is rated higher because they beat a 1-loss Washington who also beat a 1-loss Stanford who beat a 1-loss Southern Cal.  So even though their average schedule is weaker, they have a very good quality win.

And Florida just has a much stronger average schedule.

What about Oregon?  They are way down at #13 and haven't played a team with fewer than 2 losses.

Most of the computers the BCS uses don't publish ratings early in the year because of the challenges with rating a team properly when you don't use the score, but also because most of the algorithms haven't been tuned to do so.  The result is some pretty fishy looking rankings.

Kenneth Massey does publish his and presently has a top-3 of Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Texas Tech.  Alabama is #8, Oregon #16, and LSU #13.  Not completely far fetched, but also likely not that accurate.  To be fair, Ken does have an algorithm that does use the score and it has Alabama #1, Oregon #4, and LSU #6.

Billingsley also publishes, but he also assumed starting rankings from the end of last year which would seem to be a violation of the rules for a BCS computer.  This is how he manages to have reasonable results.  Of course, he still has Michigan in his top-20 (#19) and Arkansas in the top-50!

Colley has rankings published and similar to Massey has Oregon State and Notre Dame at the top.  Jeff Sagarin also publishes and has the most reasonable results.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Florida	83.036	4-0	67.454	+0, -3.685
2	LSU	81.692	5-0	59.142	+8, +2.887
3	Kansas St	81.491	4-0	58.859	-1, -2.570
4	Georgia	80.949	5-0	61.141	+1, -0.981
5	Oregon St	79.623	3-0	71.840	+14, +3.534
6	Notre Dame	79.521	4-0	66.180	+0, -2.399
7	Texas Tech	79.076	4-0	62.836	+9, +2.333
8	Florida St	78.634	5-0	55.935	-5, -4.855
9	Alabama	78.249	5-0	62.625	+4, +0.341
10	South Carolina	77.874	5-0	65.503	-1, -1.941
11	Texas	77.385	4-0	64.832	-4, -4.534
12	Washington	76.486	3-1	64.891	+33, +6.256
13	Oregon	75.643	5-0	56.819	-9, -7.198
14	West Virginia	75.546	4-0	60.318	+15, +2.378
15	Ohio State	75.471	5-0	61.891	+26, +3.904
16	Stanford	75.351	3-1	69.083	-8, -5.113
17	Mississippi St	74.773	4-0	55.802	+8, +0.910
18	Texas A&M	74.754	3-1	63.281	-7, -3.588
19	Clemson	74.563	4-1	65.003	-5, -2.618
20	Iowa St	73.663	3-1	65.960	+2, -1.191
21	Rutgers	73.548	4-0	60.380	+18, +1.832
22	Missouri	73.080	3-2	69.552	+1, -1.147
23	Oklahoma	72.952	2-1	61.389	-3, -2.914
24	Purdue	72.641	3-1	65.204	+3, -0.746
25	Tennessee	72.460	3-2	63.555	-13, -5.599

The Alabama, Oregon, LSU (and Georgia and Kansas State?) Debate

The teams that are going to be vying to get into the BCS championship game are becoming a bit clearer.  And it may not be the what was thought to be safe Alabama/LSU winner vs potentially Alabama/LSU loser.

The full week 4 ratings will be posted tomorrow, but with some scores still being tallied, there are some shakeups in the top-10.  Here is what it looks like as of right now:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	92.383	4-0	58.701	+14,+12.334
2	Alabama	91.960	4-0	62.900	-1, -1.810
3	Georgia	91.447	4-0	58.739	+0, +4.565
4	Kansas St	90.013	4-0	61.320	+0, +6.165
5	Florida	89.191	4-0	70.640	+1, +6.816
6	Texas	85.221	3-0	64.166	-1, +2.002
7	Florida St	84.715	4-0	52.051	+5, +4.282
8	South Carolina	84.390	4-0	64.851	+0, +2.341
9	Texas A&M	83.781	2-1	65.282	+4, +3.628
10	Stanford	81.582	3-0	70.508	+1, +1.034

Yes folks, my computer has Oregon moving to #1.  Of course, the 49-0 win over Arizona is the key reason and that score was a bit inflated by some interceptions returned for TDs, but even without those, Oregon would be very close to Alabama.  And Georgia and K-State are not far behind.

And what happened to LSU?  They presently would fall to #13.  How can that be?  They won after all?  Yes, but by only 2 against a struggling Auburn team that lost to Clemson by 7 (who lost to FSU by 12) and Mississippi State by 18.  Plus Auburn barely beat a 1-2 Lousiana-Monroe.  Any non-SEC team that squeaks out a 2 point win over a team like that would get hammered and LSU should.

And if you look at the profiles of the top-4 teams above, they are very similar.  Here are the performance charts:

Oregon has played 2 meaningful games, the Fresno State and Arizona games results more or less being averaged to get to their current 92.383 rating.



Alabama has played 3 meaningful games and each one has rated near identically making one think they are rated where they should be.



Georgia has also played 2 meaningful games like Oregon, and has performed very similarly in each.



In a common theme, 2 meaningful games and two similar results for K-State.

So, who can separate from this group of 4 teams?  Georgia has the best shot playing the highest rated team next week (Tennessee, 76.5) while Alabama plays Ole Miss (72.7).  Oregon could be in trouble having to play Washington State (59.3) while K-State has a week off.  So look for Alabama or Georgia to move to the top if they can perform well against their next quality opponent.



For those interested, here is LSU's chart.  Two meaningful games and the close win over Auburn drags them down.

Thoughts?  Will the polls drop LSU?  Should they?  Was the Auburn win representative of this years LSU team or an aberration?

Playing one non-FBS school is a bad idea, playing two should be illegal - Hello Florida State and Texas A&M

With conference schedules, most FBS schools are left with 3, sometimes 4, non-conference games to schedule each year.  How this opportunity is handled varies wildly though.

Some schools that need to beef up their schedule strength will schedule tougher opponents and go on the road (see Boise State) to do so (@Michigan State and @Southern Miss plus hosting BYU), and certainly don't water down their schedule with a non-FBS opponent.

What is more common is that schools that (perhaps) rightly (SEC teams) or wrongly (B1G teams) feel their conference schedule is so strong that they don't need a tough out of conference schedule will go ahead and include a non-FBS team on their schedule, but usually will schedule at least one good/name team as well (Alabama played Michigan, LSU played Washington, Ohio State plays Cal, USC plays Notre Dame, etc.).  These teams usually fit the model of using their 3 non-conference games to play a gimme, a middle of the road team, and a good team.

There are two wildcards in this model though.  First, schedules are made several years in advance and some teams are not as consistently strong as others.  So what may have looked like a tough game can sometimes turn out to be not so tough.  But second, and more importantly, while scheduling a non-FBS school might be considered no different than scheduling a weak FBS school, and if this is the "gimme" game what difference does it make, not all non-FBS schools are created equal and some of these games just should not be played.

Yes, I know the small team usually makes money off it and that is important to their program, but with just 12 games to evaluate a team in the polls and by the computers, these meaningless games are at best a lost opportunity to accurately evaluate a team and at worst, give a bad data point that throws ratings off.  Now, my algorithm treats these games as essentially meaningless unless there are upsets or unexpectedly close games, but not all computers do this as well.

Given the problems it causes, I think we'd all agree that playing these non-FBS teams isn't desirable and we'd prefer to see more meaningful games played.  What is particularly sad is when you see an FBS team, and not any FBS team but one from a major conference with title aspirations schedule 2 (yes two, that is a full 1/6th of the schedule) non-FBS games!  Who falls into this category this year?

• Florida State's has scheduled non-FBS teams Murray State and Savannah State.
• Cincinnati (ok, is the Big East really a major conference? :O) has scheduled non-FBS teams Delaware State and Fordham.
• Pittsburgh (ummm, Big East too) has scheduled non-FBS teams Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb.
• Texas A&M has scheduled non-FBS South Carolina State and Sam Houston State.

Florida State doesn't even leave the state of Florida for a non-conference game hosting Florida and going to South Florida.  Can they really be considered tried and tested at the end of the year having played an ACC schedule (not the toughest) and 2 non-FBS teams and no non-conference game outside their own state?

Texas A&M is perhaps worse, as while they make the short trip outside of Texas to Louisiana Tech, that will likely be their toughest non-conference opponent.  But they aren't in the national title discussion and they have a tougher SEC schedule, so perhaps they get a pass.

Similarly, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh play in the irrelevant Big East so we'll ignore their transgressions.

Now, as noted above, my computer will account for these games appropriately and still give an accurate rating of the teams, but I'd think the BCS should have a rule that to be considered, 11 games must be played against FBS opponents.

Thoughts?

Early look at potential BCS busters - Ohio U., Boise State, Nevada top the list

A four team playoff is on the horizon for College Football, but we still have the BCS as we know it this year and with it, we have a way for the "little guys" to make it to a big game.  Chris Dufresne wrote a story a month ago suggesting it would be a down year for the BCS busters, so let's take a look at how some of the candidates look after one week.

As a preface, clearly one can only tell so much after just one game, but since in most cases these candidate teams need an undefeated season, or at worst an early close loss to a very good team, we can probably tell more than you think.

Current projections by my computer (will be posted tonight after the last game of week 1) have several teams forecast to have good records.  Let's take a look at the notable ones.

Ohio University leads the way with a 48% chance of an 11-1 record and they actually have a good shot at an undefeated season at 39%.  Now, this is based on their win over Penn State, and we don't know how strong Penn State really is, but more importantly, a very weak schedule.  Their highest ranked remaining opponent is #76 Kent State.  So, Ohio could very well finish with an undefeated or one loss record, but given their schedule only an undefeated record would even get them in the conversation, and then they'd need a lot of help.

Boise State is next with a 41% chance of a 10-2 record but also a 41% chance of an 11-1 record.  In their case, their loss is on the road to a good Michigan State team, and if Michigan State turns out to be very good, this loss won't look so bad.  While their schedule after MSU isn't the greatest, it isn't too bad with BYU, Nevada, and Southern Miss (#27, #34, #57 right now) and Fresno State is a good team in many years (#71 right now).  But they certainly can't afford another loss and need MSU to be strong and perhaps some help from other teams.

Nevada just started their year with an upset of Cal on the road and is projected with a 33% chance of a 10-2 record and a 24% chance of an 11-1 record.  Undefeated?  Just 6%.  And they'd probably need undefeated to be considered given their schedule.  Now, the good news for them is they do play Boise State (current #5) and get them at home, and also get South Florida (#42) at home.  If both of those teams play well, that will beef up their schedule strength and wins over them would be quality wins.  Again, they probably still need no losses.

Beyond that, there aren't many candidates.  Northern Illinois is project at 9-3 with a 31% chance of 10-2, but that won't get it done.  Last year's darlings, Houston and Southern Miss have already lost and are projected at 8-4 and 6-6 respectively.

Now, my computer is not used by the BCS (their loss :)) but it is interesting to see where these teams rate and how they project out.  More importantly, 2/3 of the BCS are the polls and these teams will likely get very little support there.  So yes, as Chris Dufresne wrote, it is very unlikely that we'll have a BCS buster this year.

What do you think?  Leave a comment!

Bring on the College Football Season!

As the days begin to get shorter and the occasional evening has that touch of coolness (ok, a lot of them here in the Northwest), we know that football season is upon us.

The college season has already started with a handful of lower division games last weekend and several FBS games last night and a pretty good slate of games this weekend.  Thus, it is time to get my ratings going again.

Because my ratings are based solely on the results on the field, the current ones are simply the end of season ratings from last year.  That means Alabama starts the year #1 which is ironically who many polls have #1 to start the year.

Using last years ratings for this years teams is not the best, I usually expect my ratings to become fairly accurate after 3 games or so, but I have still run regular season projections and have posted predictions for this weekend's games.

The projections have a bevy of teams finishing 11-1 including Alabama, LSU, Boise State, Oregon, Wisconsin, Houston, and Oklahoma State.  Now, being based on last years ratings, some of those teams may not be as strong as last year and not get there, we'll know more after a few weeks.

Who might finish undefeated?  While no teams is projected to do so yet, the team with the best chance of doing so is Alabama (35%) followed closely by LSU (34%).  A lot will hinge on their game at LSU on November 3.  Boise State also has a good shot (34%) as does Oregon (31%).  Less likely are Wisconsin (22%), Houston (20%), and Oklahoma State (15%).

Look for the first ratings of the season to include this years games early next week.

2012 BCS Championship Game Preview - LSU to win and beat the spread

The Allstate BCS Championship Bowl will take place on 1/9 pitting LSU against Alabama. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

LSU is ranked #1 by the computer with a 13-0 record and a rating of 96.546 against a schedule strength of 72.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent all year, their worst game being against Northwestern State and best game being against Arkansas. They are 5-1-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-0-1 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



Alabama is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 92.648 against a schedule strength of 71.733. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also fairly consistent, their worst game being against North Texas and best game being against Arkansas. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



Being from the same division of the same conference, the teams are very connected having played head to head and separated by 2 degrees as follows:


1 LSU-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Arkansas-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Auburn-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Florida-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Mississippi_St-->Alabama
2 LSU-->Tennessee-->Alabama

LSU won 9-6 on the road in the head to head game.  In the games against common opponents, here is how they did:

Opponent	LSU	Alabama
Arkansas	41-17	38-14
Auburn	45-10	@42-14
Florida	41-11	@38-10
Mississippi	@52-3	@52-7
Mississippi State	@19-6	@24-7
Tennessee	@38-7	37-6

The scores in these games are remarkably similar, LSU having the slight advantage of 3 at home while Alabama had just 2 at home, but of course LSU had to go to Alabama in the head to head game.

The spread was LSU by 1 but is now Alabama by 2, the computer agreeing with the former picking LSU by 3.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*LSU                   +2.0 over ..              Alabama  3.9  5.9 0.726 0.819

This pick is made based on a weighted average of each teams performance in all their games.  But it is interesting to look at a few other comparisons.

At their best, both against Arkansas, LSU rated 102.3 points and Alabama 102.1 points.  Based on that you'd expect a virtual tie.

At their worst, both in somewhat meaningless games mind you, LSU rated 80.3 and Alabama 82.2.  Based on that, you'd give Alabama the edge.

If you throw out both teams best/worst, LSU averages 95.6 while Alabama falls to 91.4.  This shows a clear advantage to LSU.

However, LSU got an extra game against Georgia and their 2nd best game was that one, so throwing it out too may be fair, but it only drops them to 95.0.   LSU is definitely stronger at the top supporting the computer's pick of LSU by nearly 4.


Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.
cfa11.gms:Alabama NL at Mississippi_St 24-7 on 12-Nov-11
cfa07.gms:LSU NL at Tennessee 38-7 on 15-Oct-11
cfa08.gms:Tennessee NL at Alabama 6-37 on 22-Oct-11

Should the BCS have waited until the Army/Navy game was played?

Following @BradEdwards_BCS on twitter, I saw him respond to, apparently, a question about the Army/Navy game and the computers.  His response was "But if a team in contention for No. 2 had beaten either Army or Navy, it could impact the computer rankings to not have that game included."

So, I went to take a look at how closely connected Alabama and Oklahoma State were to either Army or Navy.  I do this through looking at the "degrees of separation" for any two teams, e.g. 1 degree if two teams played, 2 degrees if two teams had a common opponent, etc.  What I found was interesting.

Neither Alabama or Oklahoma State played Army or Navy directly.  However, Alabama played Vanderbilt and Vanderbilt played Army.  That is a close enough connection that the Army/Navy result, especially if it were to be an upset, could change the computer's rankings.  Further, Alabama was separated from Army by 3 degrees in 9 other ways and Navy in 10 ways.  Oklahoma State was separated from Army by 3 degrees in 4 ways and Navy by 3 degrees in 4 ways.  Here is the full list:

Army-->Vanderbilt-->Alabama
Army-->Miami_OH-->Kent_St-->Alabama
Army-->Northern_Illinois-->Kent_St-->Alabama
Army-->Northwestern-->Penn_State-->Alabama
Army-->Temple-->Kent_St-->Alabama
Army-->Temple-->Penn_State-->Alabama
Army-->Vanderbilt-->Arkansas-->Alabama
Army-->Vanderbilt-->Florida-->Alabama
Army-->Vanderbilt-->Mississippi-->Alabama
Army-->Vanderbilt-->Tennessee-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Arkansas-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Auburn-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Florida-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Mississippi_St-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Tennessee-->Alabama

Navy-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt-->Alabama

Navy-->Troy-->Arkansas-->Alabama

Navy-->Troy-->North_Texas-->Alabama

Navy-->Western_Kentucky-->LSU-->Alabama

Navy-->Western_Kentucky-->North_Texas-->Alabama

Army-->Ball_St-->Oklahoma-->Oklahoma_St

Army-->Miami_OH-->Missouri-->Oklahoma_St

Army-->Northern_Illinois-->Kansas-->Oklahoma_St

Army-->Tulane-->Tulsa-->Oklahoma_St

Navy-->SMU-->Texas_A&M-->Oklahoma_St

Navy-->SMU-->Tulsa-->Oklahoma_St

Navy-->Troy-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Oklahoma_St

Navy-->Western_Kentucky-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Oklahoma_St

Why does this matter to a computer?  Many computer algorithms rate a team based on their opponents rating and/or strength of schedule.  Some like mine go even farther to provide for factoring in any games result in the rating of a team if the teams are connected in some way.  Obviously, the more degrees of separation, the less impact on a rating.

Some of the BCS algorithms may look at the Army-->Vanderbilt-->Alabama linkage and provide for Alabama's rating to change based on the Army/Navy game.  If Army were to lose, Vanderbilt's rating may go down, and if theirs does, might Alabama's too?  And would that be enough for Sagarin's or Wolfe's computer to move Oklahom State ahead of Alabama?  If so, then we would have only been 3 coaches votes away from Oklahoma State making the BCS championship game.  If this were to happen, it would be a pity that BCS didn't include the game.

I'll take a look at the computers after the Army/Navy game to see what happens.

How close did Oklahoma State come to BCS #2 part 3

This will probably be my last post on this topic, but with more details of the Harris poll now available, it deserved an update.

First, let's look at the situation where just one of the Sagarin or Wolfe computers would have had Oklahoma State #2.  I'd previously written that if just 3 Coaches poll voters, the 1 that voted Oklahoma State #5 and 2 of the 5 that voted them #4, had voted them #2, Oklahoma State would have been #2 in the BCS.  So we were 1 computer and 3 coaches ballots away from having a different BCS title matchup.

Now, we can look at what the minimum changes would have been in the Harris poll that along with 1 computer change would have had the same result.  In this case, if the 3 voters that had Oklahoma State #6 (yes, 3 had them there) had instead voted them #2, and just 1 of the voters that had them #5 and voted them #3, Oklahoma State would have been BCS #2.

We can also look at the minimum combination of computer, Coaches, and Harris poll changes.  If again, just one more computer had Oklahoma State #2, and no voter in either poll had voted Oklahoma State #5 or lower, and Oklahoma State picked up just one additional #2 vote in the Coaches poll, Oklahoma State would have been #2 in the BCS.

Now we can ask, how reasonable would this last scenario have been?

If we had transparency into the computers, perhaps we'd find a flaw in the algorithm or the data used, that wouldn't change the algorithm at all, but just make sure it is accurate, and we'd have the necessary change with the computers.  So one data entry error or typo could do it.

In the Coaches poll, one voter had Oklahoma State #5 and seemed questionable as 2-loss Arkansas was ahead of them.  The scenario above would need just this ballot to move Oklahoma State to #2.

In the Harris poll, simply voting Oregon, Boise State, and Houston behind Oklahoma State would get them to #4 or better on all the ballots.  As I wrote in that analysis, it is hard to explain having those teams ahead of Oklahoma State.

So there you have it, we were 1 computer error and simply fixing the unexplainable voting on 8 voters ballots from Oklahoma State being in the BCS title game.

What about if the computers were left the same?  Then it requires more than just fixing strange ballots.

If only the Coaches poll changed, it would have taken 16 ballots moving Oklahoma State to #2.

If only the Harris poll changed, it would have taken all of the #4, #5, and #6 ballots changing to #2s, plus 8 of the #3 votes swapping to #2.

If both polls had changed, a somewhat balanced change that gets Oklahoma State to #2 would have been the 6 Coaches poll ballots with Oklahoma State #4 or #5 moving them to #2, and all of the #5 and #6 votes plus 2 of the 9 #4 ballots in the Harris swapping Oklahoma State to #2.

So, it was awfully close.  It would have been more exciting if Sagarin or Wolfe really would have had Oklahoma State #2 though!  Maybe next year :)

Analyzing the 12/4/2011 Harris Poll

With the final Harris poll, we can finally do an analysis as along with the final poll they disclose the individual ballots.  They only make it available in a PDF it appears, so kind of a pain to get the data into a more analysis friendly format, but once done, I can now unveil my analysis.

As always, we start with the summary chart.

Compared to the AP poll chart, there is a lot more lack of consistency.  We see this early with Alabama being as low as #4, Oklahoma State being as low as #6, and then teams like Kansas State (#4 to #22), Michigan (#7 to #25) and Houston (#5 to #25) having huge ranges.  With nearly twice the number of voters, this is somewhat to be expected but the number of teams with these large ranges and the size of some is a bit surprising.

Let's dive in a bit deeper where all the discussion is.  How did Alabama and Oklahoma State compare?

Alabama was #2 on 80 of the 115 ballots, #3 on 33, and 2 voters elected to place them #4.  Oklahoma Sate on the other hand had 35 votes at #2, 64 at #3, 9 at #4, 4 at #5, and a surprising 3 at #6.

Head to head Alabama was ahead 80 times with an average gap of 1.325 back to Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma State was ahead 35 times with an average gap of 1.057.

Who voted Alabama #4?  Jim Walden and Todd Husak did having Stanford at #3 between them and Oklahoma State.  Who are they?

• Jim Walden was the coach at WSU and Iowa State and went to school at Wyoming.  It is easy to see how he might have a Stanford/Oklahoma State bias.
• Todd Husak played at Stanford so easy to see that bias too.

But one can make an argument, although IMHO a weak one, that Stanford is actually better than Alabama so this isn't too fishy.

With the number of voters who seem to discount Oklahoma State (voting them #4 or lower) totaling 16, I won't go through them all by name, but there are a few key observations:

• All 9 of the ballots with Oklahoma State #4 had Stanford #3.  They appear to take the position that Stanford's loss to Oregon State was better than Oklahoma State's loss to Iowa State, a defendable position.
• The voters with Oklahoma State #5 all had Oregon ahead of them:
• Craig Morton went Stanford #3, Oregon #4
• Jeff Van Note went Wisconsin (!) #3, Oregon #4
• Rick Wright went Oregon #3, Stanford #4
• Scott Johnson went Oregon #3, Boise State #4
• The voters with Oklahoma State #6 were:
• Bob Wagner went Stanford #3, Boise State #4, Oregon #5
• Derrick Mayes went Stanford #3, Boise State #4, Oregon #5
• George Wine went Stanford #3, Boise State #4, Houston #5

Ok, some of this may be defendable, but some just clearly isn't.  Maybe, just maybe, you can make a case that Oregon is a better team, being very explosive and having lost to only LSU and a hot USC team due to a missed field goal.  Yes, Oklahoma State's loss was a bad one, but considering the circumstances and the strength of their schedule and wins they had, saying Oregon is better is a pretty big stretch.

But where does ranking Wisconsin ahead of Oklahoma State come from, let alone ranking them #3?  Yes, one of their losses was to a good Michigan State on a Hail Mary, but then they turn around and lose to a 6-6 Ohio State team, arguably similar to Oklahoma State's one loss.  Hard to figure.

And how can one figure that Boise State is better than Oklahoma State?  Four of these voters thought so, apparently because Boise's one loss to TCU was "better" than Oklahoma State's one loss.  While that may be true, that ignores that Oklahoma State played a far far tougher schedule and their best win over Oklahoma was better than Boise's best win over Georgia.

Last, Houston is better than Oklahoma State?  This clearly has to be a joke or someone trying to make sure Alabama stayed at #2 in the BCS.  Houston played a powderpuff schedule, only beating 3 teams with winning records (vs Oklahoma State's 7), and even those teams had winning records due to weak schedules.

Now, was any of this enough to cause Oklahoma State to lose out on the BCS title game?  No, but everything was close enough that other smaller biases or oddities in the Harris or Coaches poll coupled with these might have.

What about other observations?  I already mentioned Houston being as high as #5 being questionable, but TCU was #5 on a ballot as well.  That would be Gary Sanders who did have Oklahoma State #2, but having 2-loss TCU ahead of other 2-loss teams with much stronger schedules like Kansas State, Arkansas, USC, Oregon, and South Carolina seems questionable.

There are other oddities in the ballots, but time and keeping this post a readable length don't allow going on so I'll close for now.  But I guess we should all be thankful that Sagarin and Wolfe kept Oklahoma State #3, as if they had been #2 in just one of those, the BCS totals would have been close enough that all of this strange voting would have been the difference.

How close did Oklahoma State come to BCS #2 part 2

I wrote up some scenarios last night on how close it was between Alabama and Oklahoma State for the BCS #2 spot, and determined that it was 1 computer and 5 voters.  Now that we know more about the Coaches poll, we can actually say a little more.  Also, for those interested, I'll look at what it would have taken with just the polls and no computer change.

First, we now know that it was 6 coaches that voted Oklahoma State lower than third.  Five had them fourth and one had them fifth, one additional or 36 had them third.

The same analysis as before still applies.  If one of Sagarin or Wolfe had Oklahoma State #2, and 5 voters that had Oklahoma State #3 swapped them with Alabama to #2, Oklahoma State would have been #2 in the BCS.

However, it could have been even less.  Specifically, if the Air Force coach that voted Oklahoma State #5 had voted them #2, and if two of the other coaches that voted them #4 had voted them #2, Oklahoma State would have also taken the lead.  That is just 1 computer and 3 coaches!


Ok, but that is assuming a computer would have changed.  What if it hadn't.

It isn't as close then, but still somewhat close.  It would have taken all of the 6 coaches that voted them 4th or 5th, plus 10 of the coaches voting them 3rd, all moving them to #2.  Still, that is just 16 coaches.  Awfully close.