Early Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

With the Conference Championships complete, the ratings don't change much, Seattle and Denver stay #1 and #2 and we get the rare 1 vs 2 match-up in the Super Bowl.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Seattle	90.457	15-3	82.008	+0, +0.141
2	Denver	88.902	15-3	79.926	+0, +0.324
3	San Francisco	88.351	14-5	82.745	+0, -0.125
4	New Orleans	86.479	12-6	82.573	+0, -0.011
5	Arizona	86.037	10-6	82.574	+0, +0.005
6	Carolina	85.681	12-5	81.869	+0, -0.021
7	New England	85.392	13-5	80.480	+0, -0.292
8	Kansas City	83.772	11-6	79.982	+0, +0.049
9	San Diego	83.637	10-8	81.316	+1, +0.061
10	Cincinnati	83.603	11-6	79.077	-1, -0.012
11	Indianapolis	83.208	12-6	81.501	+0, +0.011
12	St Louis	81.833	7-9	82.989	+0, +0.004
13	Philadelphia	81.751	10-7	79.839	+0, +0.032
14	Dallas	80.238	8-8	80.065	+0, +0.031
15	Pittsburgh	79.951	8-8	78.681	+0, -0.017
16	Tennessee	79.772	7-9	81.183	+0, +0.022
17	Miami	79.492	8-8	80.740	+0, -0.040
18	NY Giants	78.715	7-9	80.745	+1, +0.034
19	Baltimore	78.687	8-8	79.374	-1, -0.017
20	Detroit	78.558	7-9	78.851	+0, +0.006
21	Chicago	78.314	8-8	79.145	+0, +0.008
22	Green Bay	78.164	8-8-1	79.400	+0, +0.002
23	Tampa Bay	78.045	4-12	82.920	+0, -0.025
24	Atlanta	77.783	4-12	82.472	+0, -0.024
25	Buffalo	77.625	6-10	80.418	+0, -0.031
26	NY Jets	77.341	8-8	80.254	+0, -0.031
27	Minnesota	76.565	5-10-1	79.853	+0, +0.008
28	Oakland	74.993	4-12	81.041	+0, +0.046
29	Washington	74.447	3-13	80.653	+1, +0.031
30	Houston	74.431	2-14	82.275	-1, +0.014
31	Jacksonville	74.189	4-12	81.530	+0, +0.015
32	Cleveland	74.049	4-12	79.618	+0, -0.011

Who is the pick in the Super Bowl? Based on the ratings alone, Seattle would be a 1.5 point pick. But stay tuned for a more in depth preview later.

2014 AFC and NFC Championship Game Previews

I haven't been posting my NFL ratings and thought regularly this year, but it is Conference Championship time so I thought it was time to do so.

First, here are my computer's ratings through the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Seattle	90.316	14-3	81.824	+0, +0.185
2	Denver	88.578	14-3	79.766	+0, -0.015
3	San Francisco	88.476	14-4	82.133	+0, +0.837
4	New Orleans	86.490	12-6	82.589	+0, -0.140
5	Arizona	86.032	10-6	82.570	+1, +0.013
6	Carolina	85.702	12-5	81.903	-1, -0.784
7	New England	85.684	13-4	79.808	+0, +0.872
8	Kansas City	83.723	11-6	79.922	+1, -0.120
9	Cincinnati	83.615	11-6	79.096	+2, +0.022
10	San Diego	83.576	10-8	81.244	+0, -0.069
11	Indianapolis	83.197	12-6	81.484	-3, -0.781
12	St Louis	81.829	7-9	82.985	+0, +0.010
13	Philadelphia	81.719	10-7	79.800	+0, -0.011
14	Dallas	80.207	8-8	80.022	+0, -0.006
15	Pittsburgh	79.968	8-8	78.705	+0, +0.082
16	Tennessee	79.750	7-9	81.150	+0, -0.058
17	Miami	79.532	8-8	80.788	+0, +0.033
18	Baltimore	78.704	8-8	79.381	+1, +0.101
19	NY Giants	78.681	7-9	80.694	-1, -0.021
20	Detroit	78.552	7-9	78.845	+0, +0.028
21	Chicago	78.306	8-8	79.139	+0, +0.020
22	Green Bay	78.162	8-8-1	79.409	+0, +0.084
23	Tampa Bay	78.070	4-12	82.948	+0, -0.000
24	Atlanta	77.807	4-12	82.500	+0, +0.005
25	Buffalo	77.656	6-10	80.468	+0, +0.045
26	NY Jets	77.372	8-8	80.303	+0, +0.045
27	Minnesota	76.557	5-10-1	79.839	+0, -0.009
28	Oakland	74.947	4-12	80.979	+0, -0.043
29	Houston	74.417	2-14	82.257	+0, -0.023
30	Washington	74.416	3-13	80.619	+0, +0.033
31	Jacksonville	74.174	4-12	81.495	+0, -0.058
32	Cleveland	74.060	4-12	79.643	+0, +0.051

We can see the 4 teams in the championship games are ranked 1 thru 3 and 7.  So not a lot of surprises here.  We can also see that the home teams are rated higher, so in theory when you add in home field advantage they should be favored as they are.

But let's take a deeper look!

Here is Seattle's performance chart.



We can see they had their worst game of the year against Arizona, but recovered pretty well with good results against St. Louis and New Orleans.  We can also see that while they do well at home, they have some very good results on the road too so they aren't just a home team.  Even if we ignore their loss to Arizona, their last three games are right around 94, but with it their last four are 89.5.




San Francisco we can see has been on a slow but pretty steady improvement since mid-year.  Their last four, three on the road, average 90.6, but take their three best of their last four and they are 92.4.

So you can make the argument that the 49ers are playing at the same level Seattle is, but given the game is in Seattle, you have to give the advantage to Seattle.  But San Francisco just proved they can throw up a great result, 99.1, on the road last week so if they can do that again, they have a shot.




Denver took a small drop late in the year, and the San Diego loss was their worst result of the year, but they avenged that loss last week.  Their last three average is 89.9 and with the San Diego loss it is 85.8.




New England improved slightly late in the year with 3 good results.  Their average from those three is a very good 93.6 but throw in the loss and they are at 89.6.

So based on their late season results, New England would seem to be the stronger team, but the game is in Denver so there is some advantage to that.  By the numbers, this game should be closer and has the better chance of the upset.

What do you think?

2013 NFL Pre-Season Projected Records

The NFL released the 2013 a few days ago, and with that, my computer can now project the records for each team.  Without further adieu, here is the list.

The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse.  Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.

Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes.

You probably aren't surprised to see most of the teams at the top.  Denver and New England are expected to rule the AFC with Houston and Baltimore close behind.  What may be a bit of a surprise is the drop-off for the wildcards, with Cincinnati projected at 9-7 and Pittsburgh at 8-8.  Pittsburgh is projected to be tied with Indianapolis and San Diego at 8-8 but has the better chance of that record and 9-7 so they get the nod.

The NFC is probably more or less as expected too with the NFC West leading the way, Seattle getting the nod for the division based on every so slightly better chances at 11-5 and and 12-4.  Green Bay slots in at 10-6 as do the Giants and Atlanta.  The computer doesn't factor in injuries but it is interesting to see that Washington is a game back of the Giants at 9-7 but getting a wildcard over Chicago and Minnesota on better chance of 9-7 and 10-6.

For what its worth, the computer's pre-season projections last year correctly projected 3 of the AFC division winners and 3 of the NFC division winners as well.

Enjoy!

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Denver	12-4	24.4	23.7	17.4
New England	11-5	21.5	17.7	19.6
Seattle	11-5	21.3	16.8	20.2
San Francisco	11-5	21.0	16.6	19.9
Green Bay	10-6	21.5	18.8	18.5
Houston	10-6	21.4	17.6	19.5
Baltimore	10-6	21.0	18.7	18.0
NY Giants	10-6	20.2	15.8	19.8
Atlanta	10-6	20.0	15.4	20.0
Washington	9-7	22.1	20.6	17.5
Minnesota	9-7	21.2	17.6	19.3
Cincinnati	9-7	20.5	18.1	18.0
Chicago	9-7	20.2	19.3	16.5
Pittsburgh	8-8	21.2	19.7	17.2
Indianapolis	8-8	21.2	17.8	19.1
Dallas	8-8	21.1	18.6	18.2
San Diego	8-8	20.7	20.0	16.3
St Louis	8-8	20.7	17.1	19.2
Tampa Bay	8-8	20.1	15.8	19.8
Carolina	8-8	19.9	16.3	19.1
Buffalo	7-9	20.5	16.7	19.4
Arizona	7-9	20.4	17.2	18.7
NY Jets	7-9	20.3	15.7	20.2
New Orleans	7-9	20.2	19.5	16.2
Miami	7-9	19.9	19.0	16.2
Cleveland	6-10	22.4	18.5	19.9
Tennessee	6-10	20.7	20.3	15.9
Oakland	5-11	22.7	21.2	17.4
Philadelphia	5-11	22.6	17.1	21.8
Detroit	5-11	21.2	20.0	16.8
Jacksonville	4-12	23.5	20.8	18.7
Kansas City	4-12	23.4	19.4	20.3

Superbowl Preview - 49ers vs Ravens

Here is a preview of the Superbowl using my computer's ratings.

San Francisco is rated #1 by my computer so they are the pick to win the game on a neutral field.  But let's look deeper.

First, here is the 49ers performance chart.



This shows that in the majority of their games, they have been quite consistent, right around the low 90s with a few games a bit higher and a few a bit lower.  Their losses and tie appear as aberrations but the fact they happened means one could happen again.  To be fair though, the 2 losses in the last 9 games were both on the road and they just had a great road result in their last game.

If there is a "good" and "bad" 49er team, in their wins they averaged 93.1 rating points while in their losses they averaged 73.7.  And if you look at just their last 4 wins they average a slightly higher 93.7.

Here is Baltimore's chart.



They haven't had quite as clear a disparity between good and bad, with some fairly consistent results in their wins in the mid to upper 80s through much of the season, then some poor results in losses, but then have been very strong in the playoffs.  And you might throw out the Bengals game as meaningless so they've really had 4 strong results in a row recently.

If we look at just Baltimore's last 4 wins, they average 95.7.

So, looking at the entirety of the season, my computer would pick the 49ers by 3.  With Vegas having the line originally at 5 and closer to 3.5 or 4 now, that would make the pick the Ravens to cover.

And if you assume the teams are both going to show up with their best games, one could make the argument that the Ravens best is actually a bit better than the 49ers, around 2 points, so that would seem to reinforce the pick of the Ravens plus the points and even give hope to those that are picking the upset.

Here is hoping for an exciting and competitive game.

Week 20 NFL Ratings and Rankings - San Francisco moves to #1

The ratings after week 20 are now posted and listed below as well.

San Francisco moves to #2 while New England drops to #3 after the conference championship games.  Baltimore moves up two spots to #6 but still trails.

This means the computer likes the 49ers in the Superbowl, more to come.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	San Francisco	87.869	13-4-1	82.266	+2, +0.110
2	Seattle	87.785	12-6	82.296	+0, -0.178
3	New England	87.340	13-5	80.332	-2, -1.549
4	Denver	87.327	13-4	79.384	+0, +0.170
5	Green Bay	85.607	12-6	81.545	+0, -0.079
6	Baltimore	84.894	13-6	80.901	+3, +1.277
7	Atlanta	84.705	14-4	80.013	-1, -0.341
8	Chicago	83.815	10-6	81.106	-1, -0.107
9	NY Giants	83.794	9-7	81.142	-1, +0.170
10	Houston	83.332	13-5	80.187	+0, -0.211
11	Minnesota	83.150	10-7	81.699	+0, -0.103
12	Washington	82.671	10-7	80.964	+0, +0.133
13	Cincinnati	82.484	10-7	79.498	+0, +0.250
14	Carolina	81.421	7-9	80.815	+1, +0.012
15	St Louis	81.415	7-8-1	82.622	-1, -0.225
16	Pittsburgh	80.614	8-8	79.427	+1, +0.287
17	New Orleans	80.492	7-9	81.048	-1, +0.025
18	Tampa Bay	80.174	7-9	80.531	+0, -0.009
19	Dallas	80.171	8-8	81.478	+0, +0.125
20	Miami	79.428	7-9	80.196	+0, -0.336
21	San Diego	78.982	7-9	79.124	+1, +0.127
22	Indianapolis	78.841	11-6	79.134	-1, -0.126
23	Arizona	78.355	5-11	82.739	+0, -0.211
24	Buffalo	77.394	6-10	79.905	+0, -0.289
25	Detroit	77.353	4-12	81.727	+0, -0.142
26	NY Jets	77.000	6-10	80.737	+0, -0.272
27	Cleveland	76.525	5-11	80.182	+0, +0.246
28	Tennessee	75.328	6-10	79.808	+0, -0.199
29	Philadelphia	73.901	4-12	81.268	+0, +0.126
30	Oakland	73.302	4-12	79.712	+0, +0.132
31	Jacksonville	70.952	2-14	80.117	+0, -0.207
32	Kansas City	70.545	2-14	80.423	+0, +0.106

NFL Conference Championship Performance Charts

As a quick way to visually see how the final 4 teams have performed, here are their performance charts.



New England is #1 for a reason, they've had a lot of good results.  I've had a few folks say they think even so, they are underrated, and what is holding them back are a few bad results.  The Arizona and early season Baltimore loss don't count that much now, but the 49ers loss and narrow win over Jacksonville are holding them back a bit now.  If you don't include those considering them aberrations  their last 5 games have all been in the 90-100 range, very strong.



Baltimore had a tough patch late in the year, but were banged up a bit and perhaps the Cincinnati game didn't mean much to them.  Ignoring that game, 3 of their last 4 have been in the 90-97 range, also quite strong.



Atlanta won a lot, but played a weaker schedule.  In fact, they've only had a few results over 90 late in the year, their best again the Giants.  They certainly don't look as strong as the AFC teams unless they can repeat their peak form.



The 49ers have also been a bit up and down, but like the AFC teams their highs have been in the 90-100 range and they've had a bunch.  They look a bit stronger in general than Atlanta and are ranked higher, but they have to go on the road.

NFL Week 19 Ratings and Rankings - New England stretches their lead

The ratings after week 19 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 and Seattle stays #2, but the gap widens.  The 49ers and Broncos swap spots right behind them.

Seattle loses a few ratings points but stays #2 because they were predicted to have a narrow (less than 1 point, computer almost called it perfect) win and lost by 2, so they were rated pretty close to correct.  For the same reason, Atlanta's rating improves slightly but they stay #6 even though Green Bay at #5 did lose ratings points, just not enough.

Baltimore does move up 2 spots after their road win but will still be an underdog to the Patriots.  Atlanta and San Francisco will be a very close prediction.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.889	13-4	80.346	+0, +0.333
2	Seattle	87.963	12-6	82.496	+0, -0.172
3	San Francisco	87.759	12-4-1	82.181	+1, +0.578
4	Denver	87.157	13-4	79.267	-1, -0.929
5	Green Bay	85.686	12-6	81.643	+0, -0.692
6	Atlanta	85.046	14-3	79.691	+0, +0.163
7	Chicago	83.922	10-6	81.215	+0, -0.131
8	NY Giants	83.624	9-7	80.983	+1, +0.051
9	Baltimore	83.617	12-6	80.324	+2, +0.698
10	Houston	83.543	13-5	80.398	-2, -0.349
11	Minnesota	83.253	10-7	81.808	-1, -0.191
12	Washington	82.538	10-7	80.842	+0, +0.035
13	Cincinnati	82.234	10-7	79.266	+0, +0.018
14	St Louis	81.640	7-8-1	82.829	+0, -0.002
15	Carolina	81.409	7-9	80.805	+0, -0.087
16	New Orleans	80.467	7-9	81.020	+0, -0.039
17	Pittsburgh	80.327	8-8	79.166	+0, +0.056
18	Tampa Bay	80.183	7-9	80.521	+0, -0.058
19	Dallas	80.046	8-8	81.332	+0, +0.031
20	Miami	79.764	7-9	80.513	+0, +0.037
21	Indianapolis	78.967	11-6	79.280	+0, -0.053
22	San Diego	78.855	7-9	78.993	+0, -0.060
23	Arizona	78.566	5-11	82.969	+0, +0.017
24	Buffalo	77.683	6-10	80.231	+0, +0.022
25	Detroit	77.495	4-12	81.854	+0, -0.119
26	NY Jets	77.272	6-10	81.061	+0, +0.023
27	Cleveland	76.279	5-11	79.913	+0, +0.020
28	Tennessee	75.527	6-10	80.030	+0, -0.105
29	Philadelphia	73.775	4-12	81.127	+0, +0.044
30	Oakland	73.170	4-12	79.587	+0, -0.071
31	Jacksonville	71.159	2-14	80.340	+0, -0.076
32	Kansas City	70.439	2-14	80.286	+0, -0.078

NFL Week 18 Ratings and Rankings - Patriots remain #1

The ratings after week 18 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England stays #1 but Seattle moves up to #2 just ahead of Denver.  All three teams are very close and the 49ers are close behind before a bit of a drop to Green Bay and the rest.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.556	12-4	80.348	+0, +0.033
2	Seattle	88.135	12-5	82.143	+1, +0.485
3	Denver	88.086	13-3	79.162	-1, +0.005
4	San Francisco	87.181	11-4-1	82.213	+0, +0.082
5	Green Bay	86.378	12-5	81.178	+0, +0.482
6	Atlanta	84.883	13-3	79.452	+0, -0.075
7	Chicago	84.053	10-6	81.354	+0, -0.007
8	Houston	83.892	13-4	79.805	+1, +0.098
9	NY Giants	83.573	9-7	80.928	+1, -0.029
10	Minnesota	83.444	10-7	81.970	-2, -0.502
11	Baltimore	82.919	11-6	79.797	+1, +0.400
12	Washington	82.503	10-7	80.803	-1, -0.518
13	Cincinnati	82.216	10-7	79.255	+0, -0.166
14	St Louis	81.642	7-8-1	82.822	+0, +0.028
15	Carolina	81.496	7-9	80.877	+0, -0.053
16	New Orleans	80.506	7-9	81.086	+0, -0.054
17	Pittsburgh	80.271	8-8	79.141	+1, -0.040
18	Tampa Bay	80.241	7-9	80.590	-1, -0.097
19	Dallas	80.015	8-8	81.287	+0, -0.085
20	Miami	79.727	7-9	80.480	+0, -0.004
21	Indianapolis	79.020	11-6	79.347	+0, -0.505
22	San Diego	78.915	7-9	79.085	+0, -0.023
23	Arizona	78.549	5-11	82.951	+0, +0.058
24	Buffalo	77.661	6-10	80.195	+0, +0.000
25	Detroit	77.614	4-12	81.978	+0, -0.021
26	NY Jets	77.249	6-10	81.022	+0, -0.020
27	Cleveland	76.259	5-11	79.880	+0, -0.068
28	Tennessee	75.632	6-10	80.135	+0, -0.068
29	Philadelphia	73.731	4-12	81.071	+0, -0.095
30	Oakland	73.241	4-12	79.674	+0, -0.026
31	Jacksonville	71.235	2-14	80.452	+0, -0.092
32	Kansas City	70.517	2-14	80.372	+0, -0.065

How did the Bears and Giants rank in the top-10 but not make the playoffs?

We all know that a record doesn't tell you everything about a team, and looking at my week 17 ratings and rankings and comparing to who made the playoffs, this is evident on several levels.

First, Indianapolis is ranked #21 but is one of the 12 teams making the playoffs.  This is due to  2 things, a very weak schedule based in part on having the worst record last year, and winning a lot of close games.  Their performance chart is telling.  You can see how their wins are mostly just above their rating while several of their losses are well below their rating.



But what about the teams that were "left out"?

Chicago is ranked #7 by my computer but lost the wildcard tie-breaker to Minnesota on division record.  To be fair, my computer has Minnesota #8 just over 0.1 points behind, and Chicago is not ahead of any other non-division winner in the NFC.  Their chart shows a clear decline in the second  half of their year where they went 5-8, although all those losses were to playoff teams.  Their rating is fairly high because of this tough schedule (#7) with only 3 playoff teams having a tougher schedule.



The Giants are ranked #10 by my computer but were a game out of the tie-breaker with Chicago and Minnesota.  Had they won one more game, they would have had the conference record advantage over both of them and been in the playoffs.  But losing 3 of their last 5 hurt them, although they too were to playoff teams.  And losing early in the year to 3 teams that didn't make the playoffs didn't help.

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Denver	0.378	0.205
New England	0.323	0.174
San Francisco	0.292	0.148
Atlanta	0.292	0.138
Seattle	0.128	0.066
Green Bay	0.130	0.064
Houston	0.102	0.048
Baltimore	0.091	0.041
Minnesota	0.077	0.035
Washington	0.080	0.035
Cincinnati	0.060	0.027
Indianapolis	0.046	0.019

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.

NFL Playoff Team Performance Charts

With the completion of the NFL regular season, it is interesting to take a look at the performance charts for the playoff teams to see how they are entering the post-season.  Here they are with a few comments.



The Patriot's rating was remarkably consistent, even if they had a few up and down games.



Denver started the season a bit lower, and started 2-3, but then went on  a streak and have been in the top-4 the last 8 weeks.



Seattle benefited from a win over Green Bay early, but finished the season very strong and moving up to #3.



The 49ers have had the lowest lows of any of the top-4 teams, but also some pretty high highs.



The Packers have been a bit up and down, but finished pretty strong until the loss to the Vikings who they get to play again.



Atlanta was strong early, but wasn't as good late, some questions entering the post-season.



Minnesota was the last team in, but finished strong in their last 4 to get there.



Houston is a bit like Atlanta, not finishing strong at all.



Washington had a worse start than Denver, 3-6, but have had a similar strong finish.



Baltimore has a similar profile to Houston and somewhat Atlanta, not finishing that strong.



Cincinnati also finished strong, just the lone loss to Dallas, to get into the playoffs.



The Colts had a very weak schedule and made the most of it, being #21 in the league but being amongst the 12 teams making the playoffs.  A lot of close wins is what didn't impress the computer.

NFL Week 17 Ratings and Rankings - New England finished #1

The ratings after week 17 are now posted and listed below as well.

New England moves back ahead of Denver based primarily on Denver having to play the worst team in the league while the Patriots got to play now 7-9 Miami.  They are only a half point apart so it really is very close.

Behind them, Seattle stays ahead of San Francisco, despite San Francisco beating them out for the NFC West.  Atlanta falls more with their loss than Green Bay does leaving the Packers at #5 and the Falcons at #6.

It will be no solace to Chicago that they are #7 and ahead of Minnesota at #8 because they lost out on tie-breakers to them.  Houston's losing streak dropped them all the way to #9.

The Giants are another team that missed the playoffs but is ranked ahead of teams that made it.  The worst team in the playoffs?  The Colts way down at #21.

We are now on to the playoffs.  Look for more posts shortly.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	88.523	12-4	80.320	+1, +0.357
2	Denver	88.081	13-3	79.177	-1, -0.169
3	Seattle	87.650	11-5	81.924	+0, -0.056
4	San Francisco	87.099	11-4-1	82.150	+0, +0.050
5	Green Bay	85.896	11-5	81.290	+1, -0.274
6	Atlanta	84.958	13-3	79.527	-1, -1.216
7	Chicago	84.060	10-6	81.363	+1, -0.064
8	Minnesota	83.946	10-6	81.484	+1, +0.269
9	Houston	83.794	12-4	79.902	-2, -1.170
10	NY Giants	83.602	9-7	80.989	+0, +0.179
11	Washington	83.021	10-6	80.597	+1, +0.274
12	Baltimore	82.519	10-6	80.111	-1, -0.376
13	Cincinnati	82.382	10-6	78.799	+0, +0.214
14	St Louis	81.614	7-8-1	82.785	+0, +0.136
15	Carolina	81.549	7-9	80.928	+1, +0.627
16	New Orleans	80.560	7-9	81.131	-1, -0.667
17	Tampa Bay	80.338	7-9	80.695	+3, +0.990
18	Pittsburgh	80.311	8-8	79.178	+1, +0.382
19	Dallas	80.100	8-8	81.347	-2, -0.382
20	Miami	79.731	7-9	80.485	-2, -0.357
21	Indianapolis	79.525	11-5	78.955	+2, +1.010
22	San Diego	78.938	7-9	79.111	-1, -0.333
23	Arizona	78.491	5-11	82.889	-1, -0.221
24	Buffalo	77.661	6-10	80.197	+2, +0.931
25	Detroit	77.635	4-12	81.987	+0, -0.145
26	NY Jets	77.269	6-10	81.018	-2, -0.952
27	Cleveland	76.327	5-11	79.939	+0, -0.365
28	Tennessee	75.700	6-10	80.204	+0, +0.503
29	Philadelphia	73.826	4-12	81.157	+0, -0.405
30	Oakland	73.267	4-12	79.700	+0, +0.301
31	Jacksonville	71.327	2-14	80.526	+0, -0.634
32	Kansas City	70.582	2-14	80.419	+0, +0.208

NFL Week 16 Ratings and Rankings - Denver the new #1

The ratings after week 16 are now posted and listed below as well.

Denver moves to #1 ahead of New England, and Seattle moves to #3 ahead of the 49ers.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Denver	88.250	12-3	80.022	+2, +0.282
2	New England	88.166	11-4	80.648	-1, -0.662
3	Seattle	87.706	10-5	82.157	+2, +1.147
4	San Francisco	87.049	10-4-1	82.646	-2, -1.201
5	Atlanta	86.174	13-2	79.659	+1, +0.303
6	Green Bay	86.170	11-4	80.981	+1, +0.384
7	Houston	84.964	12-3	79.729	-3, -1.683
8	Chicago	84.124	9-6	81.431	+1, +0.928
9	Minnesota	83.677	9-6	81.377	+2, +1.624
10	NY Giants	83.423	8-7	81.751	-2, -1.162
11	Baltimore	82.895	10-5	79.819	+1, +0.951
12	Washington	82.747	9-6	80.887	-2, +0.096
13	Cincinnati	82.168	9-6	78.862	+0, +0.378
14	St Louis	81.478	7-7-1	82.219	+3, +0.933
15	New Orleans	81.227	7-8	81.329	+0, +0.300
16	Carolina	80.922	6-9	80.856	+0, +0.046
17	Dallas	80.482	8-7	81.083	-3, -0.625
18	Miami	80.088	7-8	79.719	+2, +0.214
19	Pittsburgh	79.929	7-8	79.665	-1, -0.412
20	Tampa Bay	79.348	6-9	80.291	-1, -0.900
21	San Diego	79.271	6-9	79.733	+3, +1.013
22	Arizona	78.712	5-10	82.518	+0, -0.615
23	Indianapolis	78.515	10-5	78.954	+0, -0.055
24	NY Jets	78.221	6-9	81.001	-3, -1.221
25	Detroit	77.780	4-11	82.187	+0, -0.213
26	Buffalo	76.730	5-10	80.692	+0, -0.766
27	Cleveland	76.692	5-10	79.603	+0, -0.118
28	Tennessee	75.197	5-10	81.072	+0, -0.513
29	Philadelphia	74.231	4-11	80.849	+0, -0.304
30	Oakland	72.966	4-11	79.662	+0, +0.110
31	Jacksonville	71.961	2-13	80.616	+0, +0.200
32	Kansas City	70.374	2-13	79.622	+0, -0.003

NFC East Playoff Scenarios as of 12/13 2:40pm Pacific

After the early games today, we have a situation where 6 teams could be tied at 9-7 in the NFC, one winning the NFC East and the other 5 vying for the 2 wildcard spots.

First, let's take a look who would win the NFC East.  In this scenario, Dallas beats Washington and the Giants go 1-1 in their last 2 games.  Dallas would win the division on the common opponent tie-breaker over Washington with the Giants having fallen by the wayside on the division record tie-breaker.

That would leave Washington, the Giants, Minnesota, Chicago, and Seattle as the other teams.  Seattle would have to go 0-2, Chicago 1-1, and Minnesota 1-1.

Washington would get the first wildcard, first by beating the Giants on division record, then beating the other 3 teams on conference record.

Then the wildcard tie-breakers are done again, this time with the Giants included again and now the Giants beat the other teams on conference record.

There are certainly many other scenarios, but this one was pretty interesting so thought I'd write it up.  More perhaps later.

What if the NFL used the BCS?

Thankfully the NFL doesn't and we have normal playoffs, but Alex at the Bleacher Report went through the effort the use one human poll, my computer ratings, and three other computers to come up with "BCS" standings for the NFL.  Take a look here.

NFL Week 15 Projected Records - Atlanta and Houston top the conferences

The projected records after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

The top 4 teams are all projected to win out, Denver convincingly, and if this happens, New England will be left out of the first round byes.

Baltimore is expected to win the AFC North, and Indianapolis and now Cincinnati instead of Pittsburgh the wildcards.

The NFC has gotten interesting with the NFC East up for grabs and now a race for the 2 wildcard spots.  Washington is given the edge being projected to finish 10-6 ahead of the Giants and Cowboys both at 9-7.  But those two teams still have a shot at the wildcard given Chicago's fall as they are also projected at 9-7 with Minnesota being there too.  It could come down to which teams are at that record and thus which tie-breakers come into play, but the Giants then Vikings have the better conference record of the group.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	14-2	51.1	0.0	40.9
Houston	14-2	48.9	0.0	42.3
Denver	13-3	92.8	0.0	7.1
New England	12-4	64.7	0.0	31.6
San Francisco	11-4-1	51.6	35.5	12.9
Green Bay	11-5	48.3	43.5	8.2
Indianapolis	10-6	55.8	22.7	21.5
Baltimore	10-6	50.2	21.1	28.7
Washington	10-6	48.8	0.0	42.1
Seattle	10-6	48.6	38.4	13.0
Dallas	9-7	54.2	18.7	27.1
Cincinnati	9-7	50.9	26.1	23.0
NY Giants	9-7	50.6	40.5	8.9
Chicago	9-7	49.7	29.9	20.4
Minnesota	9-7	48.8	12.5	38.7
Pittsburgh	8-8	47.1	42.5	10.3
St Louis	7-8-1	46.6	11.7	41.8
Miami	7-9	58.2	14.4	27.4
Tampa Bay	7-9	53.8	14.6	31.6
New Orleans	7-9	51.9	22.9	25.2
NY Jets	7-9	50.6	29.0	20.4
Tennessee	6-10	62.0	11.8	26.3
San Diego	6-10	55.9	29.2	14.9
Carolina	6-10	55.3	33.5	11.3
Buffalo	6-10	50.8	18.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	48.9	11.6	39.5
Cleveland	5-11	73.0	25.9	0.0
Detroit	5-11	47.3	13.5	39.2
Oakland	4-12	61.1	34.2	0.0
Philadelphia	4-12	58.1	36.7	0.0
Kansas City	2-14	66.1	33.2	0.0
Jacksonville	2-14	56.8	37.9	0.0