Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.63 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.58 / 3.48
Favorites: Florida, Intermountain, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, New England, NorCal, SoCal

Have a chance: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, Southwest

Just three teams are favorites, but there are a bunch that are contenders for the last spot and more that have a chance.  I have just four teams without a realistic chance of making the semis.  When looking at most-likely record, 5th place is 2-2 so it will be really competitive to see who steps out of the 10 teams projected to finish 2-2 and try to get a semi-final spot.  Or could we have our first 2-2 semi-finalist?

Given how competitive it may be, there is little chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 3.0 in Scottsdale, 40 & Over 3.5 in Surprise, and 40 & Over 4.5 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 24%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.2%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.68 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.65 / 3.49
Favorites: Caribbean, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Northern, PNW

Have a chance: SoCal

I list just three favorites, but two of the contenders are a fraction away from being favorites, and the other two are nipping at their heels.  So it feels like 7 teams vying for 4 spots.  All 7 have a better than 11% chance of going 4-0, so it should be very competitive.

There are some ways for there to be five 4-0 teams but it seems pretty slim.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 continue this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has three events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 3.0 in San Diego, and 40 & Over 4.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 37%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 14%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.4%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 83% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.10 / 3.86
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.01 / 3.91
Favorites: Florida, Middle States, Midwest, Texas
Contenders: Missouri Valley, Southern

Have a chance: NorCal

This event appears pretty top heavy with four pretty clear favorites and thus a decent chance of four 4-0 teams.  The overall favorite to make the semis isn't the strongest team, but benefits from the easiest schedule.  There are a few contenders that could spoil it and there is a 1.4% chance of five 4-0 teams.

What do you think?

2025 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 1 Recap

Day 2 of week 1 of the 2025 USTA League Nationals is about to start, so with that a recap of day 1 is in order.

As I understand it, rain did arrive in the Phoenix area causing some delays in the morning and perhaps briefly in the afternoon, but the move to short sets actually allowed some events to get ahead of schedule to guard against more delays today when more rain is forecast.  I heard of some grumbling that they could have gotten everything in under the normal format, but we'll see if getting ahead was a good idea based on today's weather.

On the courts themselves, the 2.5 women saw the top-5 teams in the simulation remain the top-5 forecast teams after day one, but with the ordered juggled somewhat.  Caribbean, Northern, and MO Valley should be locks, and be joined by Southern, or maybe Midwest or upstart PNW in the semis.  There is a 13% chance of four 4-0 teams.

The 3.5 men saw favorites NorCal, Texas, and Florida struggle, but NorCal still could make the semis with SoCal, PNW, and Midwest being minor surprises.  Look out for New England and Middle States too.  The simulation called for a very competitive event and that appears to be happening with virtually no chance of four 4-0 teams, just a 5% chance of three, and a likely 5-way tie for the last spot.

The 3.5 women has the simulation's top-4 picks all still in the top-6 projected finishers, but they are not locks with a full 7 teams having between a 22% and 42% chance of taking the last two semi-finalist spots.  Look for Southern and Texas to be there, but then, who knows, but PNW and Southwest perhaps have the inside track.  Also very competitive though with no chance of four 4-0 teams and just an 8% chance of three.

Unaffected by whether were the 4.0 events in San Diego where the 4.0 men has the top-4 favorites all still in the top-5, but a few already played each other and more do today.  Still, look for Texas, Florida, Eastern, and MO Valley to move on with Mid-Atlantic and NorCal lurking.  But look for perhaps three 3-1 teams and tie-breakers to be important.

The 4.0 women has the simulation's top-3 favorites nearly locked in for the semis in the same order, and contender Florida looking good for a spot as well.  Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, MO Valley, and Texas are lurking though.  There is a 5% chance of four 4-0 teams and 32% chance of three.

Back in Arizona, the 5.0 men had projected mid-pack Southwest leap to the favorite category joining favorites PNW, NorCal, and Intermountain as most likely to advance.  Mid-Atlantic and Midwest will try to have a say though.  There is likely a bit tie at 3-1 for the last spot, probably 5 teams but a 26% chance of six of them being tied.

Last, the 5.0 women has four teams running away with it with PNW, SoCal, Midwest, and Intermountain basically locked in to the semis already, due in part to everyone but Florida having played three matches already.  Just Mid-Atlantic has a small shot at playing spoiler.  There may be a tie at 3-1 for the last spot, but Mid-Atlantic is behind on the courts tie-breaker and even with a sweep could be left out.

I hope the rain stays away today, good luck everyone!

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men, 3.5 women, and 4.0 women, next up, the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 10%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.83 / 3.51
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.73 / 3.61
Favorites: Florida, NorCal, Texas
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Middle States, Northern, PNW, SoCal, Southwest

Have a chance: Midwest, Southern

The simulation likes three teams above the others, and one of those a near lock to make the semis, just that one having a most likely record of 4-0 (62% chance).  And in a very rare occurrence, the last semi-finalist is projected to be 2-2 with 10 teams having that record.  Now, it is likely that with so many teams having a most likely 2-2 record, one steps up and finishes 3-1, but clearly this is a close competition for that last spot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men and 3.5 women, next up, the 18 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 6.3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.18 / 3.91
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.07 / 3.95
Favorites: Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Florida, Hawaii, Intermountain, Midwest

Have a chance: Mid-Atlantic

The simulation likes three teams above the others, all having a most likely record of 4-0, but a fourth still just qualifies as a favorite.  Three of the contenders do have a better than 10% chance of going 4-0 as well, so there could be a good competition for the last spot with four teams having a most likely record of 3-1 for that spot.

There is a decent chance of four 4-0 teams but just a slim chance of five of them, and a minuscule but possible chance of six. 

What do you think?

Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, I already did the 18 & Over 4.0 men, next up, the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 13%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.7%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.70 / 3.43
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.63 / 3.49
Favorites: Florida, SoCal, Southern, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Intermountain, Missouri Valley

Have a chance: Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, PNW

The simulation likes five teams for four spots, all having a better than 40% chance of making the semis, and as a result not a lot of contenders, but a big group of teams that have a chance.  The five favorites all have a most likely record of 3-1, but one has a 41% chance or 4-0 and three more have better than a 20% chance.

The tie-breakers will be important as teams 3, 4, and 5 are all projected to have 12-8 individual court records, so one good team is going to be left out of the semis.

What do you think?

2023 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 1 Observations

Day one of 2023 USTA League Nationals is almost in the books.  A few observations.

The 2.5 women have seven teams at 2-0 after one day.  That isn't unprecedented, the schedule can just align to allow that, but what isn't common is there being a chance that six teams finish 4-0.  In my preview/simulation there was just a 2% chance of five 4-0 teams, but that is now 15% and the chance of six 4-0 teams is 2.2%!  Not likely, but the mere possibility is something I'm sure no one wants.

Texas is dominating the 3.5 men.  It is the same captain that has used questionable tactics to form rosters in the past and had it work, it may be working again.  Very little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams here, Texas could be the only one.

The 3.5 women are still going, but may have just two or three 4-0 teams so will we have a tie to break at 3-1?  The simulation says there could be just one 3-1 team which would I think be a first.

The 5.0 men have four 2-0 teams but no chance they all remain spotless.  The simulation even says one of them (Southern) might not make the semis.

And the 5.0 women also have four 2-0 teams but also no chance they all don't lose.  The simulation says it could be tight for the last spot, and even a 10% chance a 2-2 team advances to the semis.

Quick update on week two of 2021 USTA League Nationals

Day one of the second weekend of Nationals is complete and here is a quick summary.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women have six teams that are 2-0, but my simulation just one has a most likely record of 4-0 after today.  That leaves five teams vying for three spots, look for Southern, Midwest, Florida, Middle States, Texas, and Northern to compete for the spots.

The 40 & Over 4.0 men also have six teams at 2-0 and just one most likely to finish 4-0.  They just have four teams vying for the three remaining spots though and one 2-0 team very well could finish 2-2 and miss out.  Look for Middle States, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, PNW, New England, and Intermountain to be in it.

The 18 & Over 4.5 women have four teams at 2-0, and my simulation projects none of them to have a most likely record of 4-0 meaning a 6-way tie at 3-1.  Now, it is entirely possible at least one does get to 4-0, but if not, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northern, Florida, and Texas are going to be competing for the four spots.

The 18 & Over 4.5 men also have four teams at 2-0, and this simulation also has a tie, with five teams at 3-1 as most likely.  Again, a 4-0 team may emerge, but look for MoValley, Texas, Southwest, SoCal, Southern, and Florida to be in the running.

Good luck everyone!

Update after day 1 of 2021 USTA League Nationals

Day 1 of this year's Nationals are in the books, and here are some notes and observations.

For the 3.0 women, I didn't get a simulation published, but a 6-way tie at 3-1 was projected with New England, Southern, Midwest, MoValley, Intermountain, and PNW, and after one day just MoValley under-performed going 0-2, and now New England, Intermountain, and Southern are projected to go 4-0 with a 3-way tie at 3-1 with PNW, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic vying for the spot.

The 3.0 men had Texas, Intermountain, NorCal, Carribean, and Southern all at 3-1 or better, and after day 1, the list has expanded to be Caribbean, Southern, Intermountain, PNW, Texas, Eastern, and Mid-Atlantic.  This one could be a tie-breaker fest.

The 3.5 women had eight teams at 3-1 or better, now it is seven with a 4-way tie at 3-1 with NorCal, MoValley, Midwest, and Socal.

The 3.5 men had seven teams projected at 3-1 or better, now there are five in MoValley, Florida, Midwest, Southwest, and Southern.

The 5.0 women had five teams projected at 3-1 or better and there are still five, but Texas has moved into the group replacing NorCal, joining Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, MoValley, and PNW.

The 5.0 men had five teams projected to be tied at 3-1, but now the projection has NorCal slipping out of the 3-1 group with PNW, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern remaining.

2013 NFL Pre-Season Projected Records

The NFL released the 2013 a few days ago, and with that, my computer can now project the records for each team.  Without further adieu, here is the list.

The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse.  Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.

Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes.

You probably aren't surprised to see most of the teams at the top.  Denver and New England are expected to rule the AFC with Houston and Baltimore close behind.  What may be a bit of a surprise is the drop-off for the wildcards, with Cincinnati projected at 9-7 and Pittsburgh at 8-8.  Pittsburgh is projected to be tied with Indianapolis and San Diego at 8-8 but has the better chance of that record and 9-7 so they get the nod.

The NFC is probably more or less as expected too with the NFC West leading the way, Seattle getting the nod for the division based on every so slightly better chances at 11-5 and and 12-4.  Green Bay slots in at 10-6 as do the Giants and Atlanta.  The computer doesn't factor in injuries but it is interesting to see that Washington is a game back of the Giants at 9-7 but getting a wildcard over Chicago and Minnesota on better chance of 9-7 and 10-6.

For what its worth, the computer's pre-season projections last year correctly projected 3 of the AFC division winners and 3 of the NFC division winners as well.

Enjoy!

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Denver	12-4	24.4	23.7	17.4
New England	11-5	21.5	17.7	19.6
Seattle	11-5	21.3	16.8	20.2
San Francisco	11-5	21.0	16.6	19.9
Green Bay	10-6	21.5	18.8	18.5
Houston	10-6	21.4	17.6	19.5
Baltimore	10-6	21.0	18.7	18.0
NY Giants	10-6	20.2	15.8	19.8
Atlanta	10-6	20.0	15.4	20.0
Washington	9-7	22.1	20.6	17.5
Minnesota	9-7	21.2	17.6	19.3
Cincinnati	9-7	20.5	18.1	18.0
Chicago	9-7	20.2	19.3	16.5
Pittsburgh	8-8	21.2	19.7	17.2
Indianapolis	8-8	21.2	17.8	19.1
Dallas	8-8	21.1	18.6	18.2
San Diego	8-8	20.7	20.0	16.3
St Louis	8-8	20.7	17.1	19.2
Tampa Bay	8-8	20.1	15.8	19.8
Carolina	8-8	19.9	16.3	19.1
Buffalo	7-9	20.5	16.7	19.4
Arizona	7-9	20.4	17.2	18.7
NY Jets	7-9	20.3	15.7	20.2
New Orleans	7-9	20.2	19.5	16.2
Miami	7-9	19.9	19.0	16.2
Cleveland	6-10	22.4	18.5	19.9
Tennessee	6-10	20.7	20.3	15.9
Oakland	5-11	22.7	21.2	17.4
Philadelphia	5-11	22.6	17.1	21.8
Detroit	5-11	21.2	20.0	16.8
Jacksonville	4-12	23.5	20.8	18.7
Kansas City	4-12	23.4	19.4	20.3

Early 2012/13 NFL Playoffs Superbowl Odds

We now know who will be in the playoffs and who will play who.  With that, it is time to run through the scenarios of how the playoffs could play out, and what that means to the chances of each team making it to and winning the Superbowl.

Team	Conference	Superbowl
Denver	0.378	0.205
New England	0.323	0.174
San Francisco	0.292	0.148
Atlanta	0.292	0.138
Seattle	0.128	0.066
Green Bay	0.130	0.064
Houston	0.102	0.048
Baltimore	0.091	0.041
Minnesota	0.077	0.035
Washington	0.080	0.035
Cincinnati	0.060	0.027
Indianapolis	0.046	0.019

While Denver is not the highest rated team by my computer, they do have home field advantage through the playoffs and thus have the edge over the Patriots to get to the Superbowl as well as win it.  The Patriots are the 2nd pick though and not that far behind.

In the NFC, the 49ers and Falcons are nearly equals to both get to and win the Superbowl, the edge going to the 49ers because of Atlanta's slide the past few weeks of the season.  The highest rated team in the NFC is Seattle and because they have to play an extra round as compared with the 1st four mentioned, and thus the slot in at the 5th pick.

The chances fall out after that somewhat as expected with the Colts have the worst chance at just under 5% of making it to the Superbowl and less than 2% of winning.

NFL Week 15 Projected Records - Atlanta and Houston top the conferences

The projected records after week 15 are now posted and listed below as well.

The top 4 teams are all projected to win out, Denver convincingly, and if this happens, New England will be left out of the first round byes.

Baltimore is expected to win the AFC North, and Indianapolis and now Cincinnati instead of Pittsburgh the wildcards.

The NFC has gotten interesting with the NFC East up for grabs and now a race for the 2 wildcard spots.  Washington is given the edge being projected to finish 10-6 ahead of the Giants and Cowboys both at 9-7.  But those two teams still have a shot at the wildcard given Chicago's fall as they are also projected at 9-7 with Minnesota being there too.  It could come down to which teams are at that record and thus which tie-breakers come into play, but the Giants then Vikings have the better conference record of the group.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	14-2	51.1	0.0	40.9
Houston	14-2	48.9	0.0	42.3
Denver	13-3	92.8	0.0	7.1
New England	12-4	64.7	0.0	31.6
San Francisco	11-4-1	51.6	35.5	12.9
Green Bay	11-5	48.3	43.5	8.2
Indianapolis	10-6	55.8	22.7	21.5
Baltimore	10-6	50.2	21.1	28.7
Washington	10-6	48.8	0.0	42.1
Seattle	10-6	48.6	38.4	13.0
Dallas	9-7	54.2	18.7	27.1
Cincinnati	9-7	50.9	26.1	23.0
NY Giants	9-7	50.6	40.5	8.9
Chicago	9-7	49.7	29.9	20.4
Minnesota	9-7	48.8	12.5	38.7
Pittsburgh	8-8	47.1	42.5	10.3
St Louis	7-8-1	46.6	11.7	41.8
Miami	7-9	58.2	14.4	27.4
Tampa Bay	7-9	53.8	14.6	31.6
New Orleans	7-9	51.9	22.9	25.2
NY Jets	7-9	50.6	29.0	20.4
Tennessee	6-10	62.0	11.8	26.3
San Diego	6-10	55.9	29.2	14.9
Carolina	6-10	55.3	33.5	11.3
Buffalo	6-10	50.8	18.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	48.9	11.6	39.5
Cleveland	5-11	73.0	25.9	0.0
Detroit	5-11	47.3	13.5	39.2
Oakland	4-12	61.1	34.2	0.0
Philadelphia	4-12	58.1	36.7	0.0
Kansas City	2-14	66.1	33.2	0.0
Jacksonville	2-14	56.8	37.9	0.0

NFL Week 14 Projected Records

The projected records after week 14 are now posted and listed below as well.

No big changes from last week's projections, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly Denver and Houston are projected to get the byes in the AFC despite them both losing to the Patriots this year and New England being #1 in the rankings this week.  This is in large part because they host the 49ers next week while Denver does have to go to Baltimore but then gets Cleveland and Kansas City.

The wildcards in the AFC are projected to be Indianapolis and then one of Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.  The latter two are both projected at 9-7 but the nod presently goes to the Steelers based on the better chance of 9-7 and 10-6, although if they both finish 9-7 and Cincy gets there by beating Pittsburgh, they could have the tie-breaker advantage.

There is presently no drama in the NFC with both Seattle and Chicago being clear of Dallas and Washington and the Giants as well being at 10-6 ahead of them.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Denver	13-3	48.0	0.0	47.7
Atlanta	13-3	44.6	23.6	26.8
Houston	13-3	43.2	41.3	14.0
New England	12-4	43.1	43.1	12.6
San Francisco	11-4-1	41.1	12.6	38.0
Green Bay	11-5	45.5	19.9	29.9
Indianapolis	10-6	48.9	28.9	17.9
NY Giants	10-6	45.5	18.4	31.8
Seattle	10-6	44.3	23.4	27.0
Chicago	10-6	41.2	17.2	32.9
Baltimore	10-6	38.6	36.4	13.6
Dallas	9-7	44.6	15.3	32.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	44.3	15.7	33.2
Washington	9-7	44.1	22.7	27.6
Cincinnati	9-7	39.9	13.9	35.9
Minnesota	8-8	45.6	24.5	26.1
NY Jets	8-8	40.1	15.0	35.0
St Louis	7-8-1	43.2	33.5	15.7
San Diego	7-9	47.1	19.9	28.8
Miami	7-9	46.5	9.2	37.0
Tampa Bay	7-9	43.0	33.6	16.1
Cleveland	6-10	47.9	14.2	37.1
Buffalo	6-10	42.4	32.0	17.8
Carolina	6-10	41.7	12.7	38.7
New Orleans	6-10	39.9	37.5	12.8
Philadelphia	5-11	45.5	18.4	34.0
Tennessee	5-11	44.9	34.5	14.8
Arizona	5-11	44.6	30.8	18.8
Detroit	5-11	41.9	31.7	18.5
Oakland	4-12	53.1	20.6	24.0
Kansas City	3-13	45.4	13.2	41.1
Jacksonville	3-13	43.0	13.5	42.2

NFL Week 13 Projected Records

The projected records after week 13 are now posted and listed below as well.

Things are getting a bit more interesting.

In the NFC, Green Bay is now projected as the division winner and the NFC East is getting closer with the Giants and Redskins now both projected at 9-7 and Dallas just one game back at 8-8 and the loser of all that won't get a wildcard, those going to Chicago and Seattle.

The AFC is only interesting with Cincinnati chasing Pittsburgh and Indianapolis for the last wildcard, presently falling short in the projections.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	45.9	20.5	27.3
Atlanta	14-2	40.4	21.1	28.6
New England	12-4	42.0	22.7	27.3
Denver	12-4	47.7	42.9	8.9
Green Bay	11-5	41.3	16.5	32.4
Baltimore	11-5	37.6	23.7	26.3
San Francisco	10-5	38.0	34.7	15.1
Seattle	10-6	42.0	20.6	28.9
Indianapolis	10-6	41.9	17.2	31.6
Pittsburgh	10-6	40.8	17.0	31.8
Chicago	10-6	36.3	31.5	18.5
NY Giants	9-7	38.7	35.8	13.7
Cincinnati	9-7	37.2	32.6	17.5
Washington	9-7	36.0	13.8	34.2
Tampa Bay	8-8	42.3	32.4	17.2
Dallas	8-8	38.9	20.4	29.5
St Louis	7-8	37.6	17.1	33.0
Miami	7-9	42.9	20.0	28.8
New Orleans	7-9	39.6	21.0	28.9
Minnesota	7-9	38.6	33.0	15.8
Buffalo	7-9	37.7	21.6	28.3
NY Jets	7-9	37.3	29.7	20.3
San Diego	6-10	42.2	26.4	22.8
Tennessee	6-10	37.9	15.8	34.3
Cleveland	5-11	44.1	40.5	7.5
Arizona	5-11	42.0	33.0	15.4
Detroit	5-11	40.9	29.4	20.2
Carolina	5-11	39.5	18.8	31.9
Oakland	4-12	47.0	26.7	20.3
Philadelphia	4-12	43.2	17.2	36.9
Kansas City	3-13	45.2	20.7	31.1
Jacksonville	3-13	41.8	27.1	23.1

NFL Week 12 Projected Records - The picture gets muddier

The projected records after week 12 are now posted and listed below as well.

What was a pretty clear playoff picture has become a little cloudier.

The division leaders are still very solid.  With Green Bay's loss, Chicago is now projected as the winner in the NFC North and with Dallas' loss, the Giants control the NFC East.  And Pittsburgh's loss gives control of the AFC North to Baltimore.  But the wildcards are a different story.

In the NFC where the two teams were expected to be the Green Bay/Chicago non-division winner and Seattle comfortably, it is now Green Bay still comfortably but Seattle with just a 1 game cushion over 4 teams at 8-8.  This could get interesting.

And in the AFC, where it was fairly clear it would be the Baltimore/Pittsburgh non-division winner and a surprising Indianapolis, those two teams now find themselves in a dead heat with Cincinnati all at 9-7.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	39.3	15.9	31.6
Atlanta	14-2	33.7	13.3	33.2
Denver	12-4	47.5	31.7	18.2
Baltimore	12-4	34.3	21.0	27.5
San Francisco	11-4	36.4	27.8	21.7
New England	11-5	33.6	33.2	16.4
Chicago	11-5	34.7	26.6	22.4
Green Bay	10-6	35.9	32.5	17.3
NY Giants	10-6	37.0	23.2	26.1
Seattle	9-7	37.6	26.4	23.1
Indianapolis	9-7	38.8	25.0	23.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	37.0	20.1	28.6
Cincinnati	9-7	33.3	17.9	29.9
Tampa Bay	8-8	36.1	35.7	12.4
Washington	8-8	34.8	22.9	25.8
Dallas	8-8	37.1	21.7	27.3
Minnesota	8-8	34.9	18.4	31.2
Miami	7-9	37.7	27.7	21.0
New Orleans	7-9	36.9	24.3	24.9
NY Jets	7-9	34.2	21.2	27.2
San Diego	7-9	35.0	18.1	30.4
Buffalo	7-9	32.7	16.1	31.5
St Louis	6-9	35.7	23.7	25.4
Detroit	6-10	36.5	25.5	23.7
Tennessee	6-10	36.7	22.2	27.2
Carolina	6-10	34.6	16.8	31.7
Arizona	5-11	34.8	34.3	12.6
Cleveland	5-11	42.3	27.5	22.1
Oakland	5-11	36.4	15.2	35.1
Philadelphia	4-12	42.4	22.3	29.4
Jacksonville	3-13	34.5	32.7	14.1
Kansas City	2-14	41.9	25.9	24.7

The ever colorful NFL Week 11 Projected Records Chart

I introduced a colorful wins chart last week and I've updated it with this week's projected records.  It is a bit busy and has a ton of info in it, but find the segment for your favorite team and get a feel for how many wins they might get to.

NFL Week 11 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - Giants could be the team left out

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.  I've done this a few times this season for this case because I don't recall there ever being a single controversial call that was the clear deciding factor in the game, and this has clear playoff implications.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 11 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would be up 3 spots to #2 and Seattle would drop just one spot to #8.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.448	9-1	80.050	+0, +0.110
2	Green Bay	87.992	8-2	81.772	+3, +0.844
3	New England	87.899	7-3	80.803	-1, -0.095
4	Denver	87.793	7-3	81.759	-1, -0.027
5	San Francisco	87.489	7-2-1	81.385	-1, -0.014
6	Atlanta	85.247	9-1	78.673	+0, -0.037
7	Chicago	85.044	7-3	81.268	+1, +0.085
8	Seattle	84.322	5-5	82.437	-1, -0.739
9	Baltimore	83.966	8-2	79.091	+0, -0.023
10	NY Giants	82.856	6-4	80.417	+0, -0.053
11	Tampa Bay	82.844	6-4	78.847	+0, -0.056
12	Pittsburgh	81.909	6-4	79.043	+0, -0.034
13	Minnesota	81.565	6-4	79.683	+0, -0.085
14	Dallas	81.382	5-5	82.204	+0, -0.104
15	New Orleans	81.126	5-5	80.080	+0, +0.010
16	NY Jets	80.533	4-6	82.566	+0, -0.086
17	Washington	80.143	4-6	80.775	+0, -0.045
18	Cincinnati	80.115	5-5	79.153	+0, -0.021
19	Detroit	80.083	4-6	81.730	+0, +0.001
20	San Diego	79.788	4-6	79.821	+0, -0.023
21	Arizona	79.501	4-6	82.577	+0, -0.021
22	St Louis	79.154	3-6-1	82.615	+0, -0.008
23	Miami	79.143	4-6	80.274	+0, -0.011
24	Buffalo	78.805	4-6	82.126	+1, -0.028
25	Carolina	78.775	2-8	82.760	-1, -0.107
26	Indianapolis	78.345	6-4	80.137	+0, +0.074
27	Tennessee	76.808	4-6	82.203	+0, -0.001
28	Cleveland	75.970	2-8	80.349	+0, -0.025
29	Philadelphia	74.156	3-7	81.218	+0, -0.035
30	Oakland	73.497	3-7	80.559	+0, -0.012
31	Jacksonville	73.208	1-9	82.388	+0, +0.074
32	Kansas City	70.568	1-9	80.709	+0, -0.022

And here are the projected records where you see Green Bay winning the division outright (in the current actual projections they are projected to win the tie-breaker with Chicago at 11-5), and Seattle would fall to 9-7 and be tied with Dallas or the Giants for the last wildcard rather than winning it outright.  Should they tie with Dallas, they have the advantage with a head to head win, but should it be with the Giants, they'd likely lose out on conference record.

So, depending on how the NFC East plays out, there may be no change in the playoffs teams and seedings due to the bad call, or the Giants could be the team that loses a playoff spot because of it.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	34.4	13.2	32.8
Atlanta	13-3	33.3	23.1	24.8
Green Bay	12-4	34.6	31.2	18.2
Denver	12-4	45.7	31.1	19.5
San Francisco	11-4	32.3	18.8	28.1
Baltimore	11-5	30.4	28.5	17.9
New England	11-5	33.4	24.0	24.1
Chicago	11-5	29.9	16.1	29.3
Pittsburgh	10-6	33.7	17.7	29.6
NY Giants	9-7	33.2	25.6	22.2
Tampa Bay	9-7	35.9	25.4	23.3
Dallas	9-7	32.6	18.5	28.7
Seattle	9-7	32.8	18.4	28.7
Indianapolis	9-7	32.1	15.6	31.6
Cincinnati	8-8	32.5	26.3	21.2
Minnesota	8-8	34.2	23.1	25.4
New Orleans	8-8	31.1	17.2	29.8
NY Jets	7-9	31.3	26.7	20.2
San Diego	7-9	32.9	26.6	21.0
Buffalo	7-9	32.2	24.9	22.4
Washington	7-9	31.8	24.6	22.5
Miami	7-9	31.6	16.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	32.3	30.2	16.6
Tennessee	6-10	31.8	30.2	16.4
Detroit	6-10	35.0	26.9	21.4
St Louis	5-10	33.0	25.7	21.9
Carolina	5-11	33.3	24.5	23.2
Oakland	5-11	36.7	23.9	24.8
Philadelphia	4-12	33.4	33.3	12.9
Cleveland	4-12	38.0	29.0	20.1
Jacksonville	3-13	33.6	22.4	26.1
Kansas City	2-14	40.1	27.5	22.1

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.

NFL Week 11 Projected Records - Things get clearer, especially in the AFC

The projected records after week 11 are now posted and listed below as well.

Atlanta and  Houston continue to lead the way as you might expect.  But behind them, it is tight with Denver at 12-4 then five teams projected to finish 11-5.

In the NFC, Atlanta is projected to have a first round bye and the 49ers have the inside track to the 2nd one with Green Bay and Chicago close behind with the Packers getting the nod for the division based on current tie-breakers.  The Giants would beat out the Cowboys, both 9-7, for the NFC East based on current tie-breakers and the Bears and Seahawks would pick up the wilcards.  Seattle does have a 21% chance of being 9-7 and Tampa Bay and Dallas have decent shots at 10-6, so this could all certainly change and is not a lock by any stretch.

The AFC is a bit clearer with all four division winners alone at 11-5 or better but Pittsburgh is close at 10-6 but really would need some help to get the division given the current tie-breakers.  The Colts, despite their bad loss, still hang on to the last wildcard and have only a 15% chance of 8-8, but the Bengals do have a 26% chance of 9-7 so this too isn't a lock.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	33.9	12.7	33.1
Atlanta	13-3	33.3	23.1	24.8
Denver	12-4	45.7	31.1	19.5
San Francisco	11-4-1	32.2	18.4	28.4
Baltimore	11-5	30.4	28.5	18.0
Green Bay	11-5	35.2	28.2	20.9
New England	11-5	33.5	24.3	23.8
Chicago	11-5	29.7	15.8	29.5
Seattle	10-6	34.0	21.2	26.7
Pittsburgh	10-6	33.7	17.7	29.6
NY Giants	9-7	33.1	26.1	21.6
Tampa Bay	9-7	35.9	25.5	23.1
Dallas	9-7	32.8	18.8	28.4
Indianapolis	9-7	32.0	15.4	31.7
Cincinnati	8-8	32.5	26.2	21.2
Minnesota	8-8	34.0	24.4	23.9
New Orleans	8-8	31.0	16.9	30.0
NY Jets	7-9	31.3	26.9	20.0
San Diego	7-9	32.9	26.5	21.1
Buffalo	7-9	32.3	24.6	22.8
Washington	7-9	31.8	24.6	22.6
Miami	7-9	31.4	16.1	31.1
Tennessee	6-10	31.5	30.3	16.1
Arizona	6-10	32.6	30.1	16.9
Detroit	6-10	34.7	27.3	20.9
St Louis	5-10-1	33.2	25.4	22.4
Carolina	5-11	33.3	24.8	22.9
Oakland	5-11	36.7	23.9	24.9
Philadelphia	4-12	33.5	33.2	13.0
Cleveland	4-12	38.0	29.0	20.1
Jacksonville	3-13	33.6	22.1	26.4
Kansas City	2-14	40.1	27.5	22.1

College Football Week 12 Season Projections - Only Ohio State Undefeated?

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 12 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

And then there was 1!  And it isn't even one of the teams from last week.  Instead, Oregon and K-State fall by the wayside, and Ohio State by virtue of winning at Wisconsin is now projected to finish at 12-0.  Notre Dame's chances at being undefeated go up to 46% with their win over Wake Forest, but more importantly USC looking a little weaker than they did.  Still, that game is at the Coliseum so my computer still favors the Trojans.  It of course can't factor in Barkley's availability.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Ohio State	12-0	79.7	0.0	20.3
Notre Dame	11-1	53.9	46.1	0.0
Kansas St	11-1	71.1	0.0	28.9
Alabama	12-1	69.9	0.0	30.0
Oregon	11-1	63.9	0.0	36.1
Rutgers	11-1	61.6	0.0	34.3
Clemson	11-1	54.5	0.0	45.5
Northern Illinois	12-1	53.4	0.0	44.0
Florida	11-1	52.7	0.0	47.3