Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, first up, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.16 / 3.96
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.11 / 4.03
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Southern

Have a chance: Middle States, Midwest, SoCal

The simulation likes the top team a lot due to an easy schedule but still just 38% chance of 4-0.  But then there is a group of four teams with a 33% to 60% chance of making the semis, and five more with a better than 12% chance.  Overall five teams have a most likely record of 3-1 and then eight are at 2-2, so a competitive event it appears so court records and the tie-breakers will be important.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.5 Women.

Teams: 13 (no Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Hawaii)
Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 79% / 3
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.42 / 4.10
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.36/ 4.27
Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, Southern
Contenders: New England, SoCal

With fewer teams, very little chance of a lot of undefeated teams, but still a small chance of four of them and three have most likely 4-0 records.  Those teams are clear favorites, we'll see if one of the contenders can find their way in.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.5 Men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 36%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 7%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 64% / 5
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.50 / 4.33
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.48/ 4.36
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Southern, MoValley

This event does not look competitive top to bottom with a real chance of five 4-0 teams from the five favorites, and just two contenders forecast to have a chance to play spoiler.  If there is a tie for a semi spot, it could be a big one.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 9.0 Mixed.

Teams: 15 (No NorCal or Caribbean)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 75% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.42 / 4.16
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.38/ 4.24
Favorites: Florida, MoValley, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Southwest, Texas

A competitive event with a very low chance of a bunch of 4-0 teams.  A good list of contenders trying to spoil the favorites bid for the semis, and there are even two or three others on the fringe.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 8.0 Mixed.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.05 / 3.82
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.03 / 3.87
Favorites: Caribbean, Hawaii, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, MoValley, Southern, Texas

Seven teams have a most likely record of 3-1, so could be a big tie there.  A pretty small chance of a lot of 4-0 teams.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 7.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 wraps up this weekend!  The schedule was more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and had more events each weekend.

The last weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 4.5 in Surprise, 40 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 40 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 Mixed in San Diego, and 55 & Over 6.0 and 8.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 7.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16 (Southwest missing)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 85% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.63 / 3.41
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.57 / 3.49
Favorites: Eastern, Hawaii, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States

Again, a very competitive event it appears with a very low chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, none projected to have that record.  But it will likely still take a 3-1 record to make the semis, but there are a lot of contenders vying for it.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 7.0 Mixed.

Teams: 16 (NorCal missing)
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.62 / 3.37
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.53 / 3.45
Favorites: Hawaii, Middle States, SoCal
Contenders: Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southwest, Texas

Again, a very competitive event it appears with a very low chance of a lot of 4-0 teams, just one projected to have that record.  But it will likely still take a 3-1 record to make the semis, but there are a lot of contenders vying for it.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started in early October, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has seven events, 18 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 Mixed in Orlando, 18 & Over 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 Mixed in Surprise, and 55 & Over 7.0 and 9.0 in Scottsdale.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 9.0 Mixed.

Teams: 14
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 68% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.52 / 4.25
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.44 / 4.32
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Mid-Atlantic
Contenders: Intermountain, Middle States, Midwest, MoValley, New England, NorCal, Southern

This event is wide open with no team having a most likely record of 4-0, although two of the teams have a greater than 30% chance of doing so.  Then I don't think I've ever seen this long a list of contenders and there is a chance there is a tie at 2-2 for the last spot which I believe would be a first.

What do you think?

2024 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 2 Preview / Simulation

After day 1 of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals, here is how things stand.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women favorites to make the semis are now Florida, SoCal, and Southwest with Mid-Atlantic, PNW, and Intermountain trying to find a way in to the last spot.  Just an 11% chance of four 4-0 teams, no change of five.

For the 40 & Over 4.0 men, there remain five teams with a great chance of a semis berth, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Southern, and Texas, with New England trying to play spoiler and get in.  There is still a 2% chance of five 4-0 teams, and 19% chance of four of them.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women's favorites are New England, NorCal, and Mid-Atlantic, with Florida or Southern being most likely for the last spot, but Midwest, PNW, and Texas lurking.  Just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Then the 40 & Over 4.5 men have a pretty clear four favorites in Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, SoCal, and Southern, Midwest and Missouri Valley trying to play spoiler.  Just a 7% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Moving to 40 & Over 3.0 women, Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, and SoCal all have a better than 50% chance of making the semis, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas lurking.  It appears there will be a 3-1 team in the semis.

And the 40 & Over 3.0 men, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and Southern are all favorites for the semis, MoValley and Texas could spoil that grouping.  It appears this will be tight with two 3-1 teams expected to make it.

The 18 & Over division has the 3.5 women playing and five teams have a great chance at the semis, those being Eastern, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and SoCal, with NorCal trying to play spoiler.  There is a 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 16% of four.

Last, the 18 & Over men favorites are Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, and SoCal with NorCal trying to find their way in.  A 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 7% of four.

Good luck everyone!

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5.6%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.46 / 4.26
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.41 / 4.31
Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Intermountain, Midwest, New England, Pacific Northwest, Texas

Just three favorites, leaving the door open for one of the contenders to grab a spot.  A 3-1 team almost certainly makes the semis and I show a bunch of teams finishing with 12-8 or 11-9 court records so could be close.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.4%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 96% / 5
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.44 / 4.17
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.33 / 4.24
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, Southern

One team is well ahead of the others and is the only one most likely to be 4-0, so there could be a big tie at 3-1 for the last spot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5.4%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.43
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.58 / 3.51
Favorites: Caribbean, Middle States, NorCal, Pacific Northwest
Contenders: Eastern, Midwest, SoCal, Southern, Texas

The simulation likes the top-3 teams, but the fourth is still well ahead of the contenders.  Not terribly likely there are four 4-0 teams, but it is possible.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

Here is the 40 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 8.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.95 / 3.80
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.90 / 3.82
Favorites: Florida, SoCal, Southern, Southwest
Contenders: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England

The top-4 teams are separated a bit, all four very well could advance, but the contenders have a chance.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I wasn't going to do this one as my team is playing in it, but what the heck, here is the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 8.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.01 / 3.84
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.95 / 3.88
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Midwest, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Northern

Yes, the simulation has five favorites, the top-2 are a bit ahead but the other three are really close.  That may make it hard for the contenders to find their way in but they have a shot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 10.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.60 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.56 / 3.44
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, SoCal, Southern

The simulation likes the top-4 teams, but just two have a most likely record of 4-0, and two of the contenders are close behind with 3-1 most likely records.  Still, there is a good 10% chance of four undefeated teams.

What do you think?

Week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals continues this weekend

The second weekend of 2024 USTA League Nationals begins in two days.  It is another big weekend with the new compressed schedule, here is what is on tap.

The events starting this coming Friday the 25th are:

• 18 & Over 3.5 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 3.0 - Scottsdale
• 40 & Over 4.0 - Orlando
• 40 & Over 4.5 - Surprise

If you are in Orlando this weekend, perhaps I'll see you!

I'll try to get a few simulations up today or tomorrow, which are you interested in?

Good luck to all the teams!

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 begin this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started two weeks ago, but this year we start later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has five events, 40 & Over 3.5 in Orlando, and then 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.0 in San Diego, and 4.0 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 4.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 94% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.08 / 3.82
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.00 / 3.94
Favorites: Intermountain, Midwest, Missouri Valley, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, Southern

The simulation likes the top-4 teams, but just one has a most likely record of 4-0, but three of them have a 38% or greater chance of going 4-0.  The contenders aren't far behind most also projected at 3-1.  Court records and the tie-breakers will be important.

What do you think?

Edit: Found an error and corrected it that adds Southern as a contender

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 begin this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started two weeks ago, but this year we start later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has five events, 40 & Over 3.5 in Orlando, and then 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.0 in San Diego, and 4.0 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 18 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.02 / 3.81
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.96 / 3.89
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Caribbean, Intermountain, New England, Southwest

The simulation likes the top-5 teams, the most likely records being 4-0 for just one and 3-1 for the other four.  One of the contenders is likely to go 3-1 as well, so could be a decent size tie-breaker there.

What do you think?

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 3.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 40 & Over 3.0 event being held in Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 16 teams at the event the USTA created a schedule has a very small chance of five undefeated teams, and a less than 1% chance of four undefeated.

There is an 82% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot (4-0 or 3-1) and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a four at 29%, five is 25%, and three is 20%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 14-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 25% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 67% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 27% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 3.00 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 3.10.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  Southern, PNW, Intermountain, and NorCal are solid picks to advance, but there are a bunch of teams lurking including Middle States, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2022 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0 Men

As I've done since 2018, I will be doing simulations of each Nationals to predict who the most likely four teams are to make the semi-finals, and also look at other interesting things that may occur.  In the years I've done this, the simulations have done a pretty good job predicting who would advance to the semis including having all four teams predicted correctly several times.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Nationals is into its third week this weekend, the 18 & Over 5.0 event being held in Arizona.  Here is what the simulation says is likely to happen for the Men's flight.

As a reminder, my simulations are done using my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings and looking at the average rating for the top group of players on each team, the actual schedule each team will play, and then doing a million simulations of the matches with some random variation in each team's expected result.

With 14 teams at the event the USTA there is just a minuscule chance of five undefeated and a less than 1% chance of four.

There is a 66% chance that there will be a tie for the last spot and it come down to tie-breakers.  The most likely size of the tie is a four at 32%, three is 25%, and five is 18%.  The chances of larger ties diminish pretty quickly, but a 12-way tie is theoretically possible, but it appears a multi-way tie is a very high probability and it could be reasonably large.

Should there be a tie on team record, it comes down first to who has the best court record, then head-to-head (if applicable), then to who lost the fewest sets, then who lost the fewest games, and finally percent of games won.  There is a 29% chance it comes down to the sets lost tie-breaker, and there is a 58% chance that is between two teams and a pretty good 31% chance it is between three teams.  If the controversial tie-breakers are going to come into play, this is the likely spot.

The schedule strengths do vary quite a bit, the team with the easiest schedule having an opponent average of 4.77 while the team with the toughest schedule having an opponent average of 4.84.  Schedules will make a difference and three of the top teams likely to advance have the easiest schedules.

So who is most likely to come out in the top-4?  NorCal, Intermountain, Texas, and Florida are solid picks to advance, but PNW, MOValley, Eastern, and New England are lurking.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.