A recap of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals

Week 2 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have eight new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with a full four events this first weekend.

The 18 & Over 3.5 men were in San Diego and they had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Intermountain taking it despite having the same court record and sets lost as SoCal, but they lost fewer games so they advanced even though their game winning percentage was not as good, another case of the flawed tie-breakers choosing the wrong team.  They joined 4-0 Middle States, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic in the semis and Intermountain came through in their semi 4-1 to face Mid-Atlantic who won 3-2, where Intermountain took the title.  The simulation had three of the semi-finalists as favorites or contenders, but Intermountain was a bit of a surprise.

The 18 & Over 3.5 women had a 5-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, Florida and SoCal taking them on court record.  SoCal took out NorCal 4-1 while Florida beat Intermountain 3-2 before Florida won the final 4-1.  The simulation had Florida, SoCal, and Intermountain but NorCal was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 men were in Scottsdale and just one 4-0 team, Florida, with 5-way tie for the remaining three spots saw Southern, PNW, and Intermountain take the spots on court record.  Intermountain beat Florida 5-0 while Southern took out PNW 3-2, before Southern won the final 5-0.  The simulation liked liked Intermountain, Southern, and Florida, but PNW was a surprise.

The 40 & Over 3.0 women saw three 4-0 teams in Middle States, SoCal, and NorCal, and then a 4-way tie for the last spot with Eastern taking it on court record.  Middle States beat Eastern 4-1 while SoCal beat NorCal 3-2, and then SoCal won the final 4-1.  The four semi-finalists were all in the simulation's top-6, so not bad.

The 40 & Over 4.5 men were in Surprise and had three 4-0 teams, Southern, SoCal, and Mid-Atlantic, Southern only losing one court, and then a four way tie for the last spot with Intermountain taking it on fewer sets lost over NorCal and Midwest.  Southern ended up winning it beating Intermountain 4-1 and then SoCal 3-2 after SoCal beat Mid-Atlantic 3-2.  The simulation liked Southern as the favorite with SoCal next and Had NorCal as a favorite along with Intermountain as a contender as was Mid-Atlantic, so a very good prediction.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women had just a 2-way tie at 4-0 for two spots, Southern, and Mid-Atlantic, and then four teams vying for the last two spots at 3-1 with NorCal and SoCal taking the spots on court record.  The semis saw Southern beat SoCal 3-2 and NorCal beat Mid-Atlantic by the same score, and then Southern won 3-2 in the final.  The simulation had Mid-Atlantic and SoCal as favorites and NorCal and Southern as contenders.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women were in Orlando and had five tied at 3-1 for one semi spot and it went to Southwest on court record, them joining 4-0 Mid-Atlantic, SoCal, and Florida.  Mid-Atlantic beat Southwest in one semi 3-2, and Florida beat SoCal also 3-2 where Mid-Atlantic won the title also 3-2.  The simulation had Southwest, SoCal, and Florida as the top three teams with Mid-Atlantic a contender, so not too bad.

Last, the event I was at, the 40 & Over 4.0 men had four 4-0 teams, but very nearly had five before my team upset Midwest in our last match.  The irony of my team "saving" the USTA from five 4-0 teams is not lost on me as I would have had fun writing about it happening again, but my team fought and pulled out the win much to New England's delight as they would have been the 5th 4-0 team going home.   It is actually the second time a PNW team upset a 4-0 bound team avoided five 4-0 teams in just two weeks.  Florida, Southern, and Eastern were the other semi-finalists and Florida beat New England and Eastern got by Southern with three match TB wins, and then Florida won the final.  The simulation had Eastern, Midwest, and Southern as favorites and Florida as a contender, just New England was a bit of a surprise.

On a personal note, playing at the National Campus was a blast, it was my first time there and it is a great facility.  Not making the semis we even took the opportunity to play on clay on Sunday since we rarely have the chance.  We had a very tough schedule facing the teams that finish 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th and they had a combined 14-2 record, one loss to us (Midwest) and the other loss when two of those played each other.  But we still had a great time and had competitive matches, I alone had three match tie-breaks, one going to 20-18!  Thanks to the USTA for putting on a well run event.

Congratulations to all the champions.

2024 USTA League Nationals Week 2 Day 2 Preview / Simulation

After day 1 of week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals, here is how things stand.

The 40 & Over 4.0 women favorites to make the semis are now Florida, SoCal, and Southwest with Mid-Atlantic, PNW, and Intermountain trying to find a way in to the last spot.  Just an 11% chance of four 4-0 teams, no change of five.

For the 40 & Over 4.0 men, there remain five teams with a great chance of a semis berth, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Southern, and Texas, with New England trying to play spoiler and get in.  There is still a 2% chance of five 4-0 teams, and 19% chance of four of them.

The 40 & Over 4.5 women's favorites are New England, NorCal, and Mid-Atlantic, with Florida or Southern being most likely for the last spot, but Midwest, PNW, and Texas lurking.  Just a 2% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Then the 40 & Over 4.5 men have a pretty clear four favorites in Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, SoCal, and Southern, Midwest and Missouri Valley trying to play spoiler.  Just a 7% chance of four 4-0 teams.

Moving to 40 & Over 3.0 women, Eastern, Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, and SoCal all have a better than 50% chance of making the semis, Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas lurking.  It appears there will be a 3-1 team in the semis.

And the 40 & Over 3.0 men, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and Southern are all favorites for the semis, MoValley and Texas could spoil that grouping.  It appears this will be tight with two 3-1 teams expected to make it.

The 18 & Over division has the 3.5 women playing and five teams have a great chance at the semis, those being Eastern, Florida, Intermountain, PNW, and SoCal, with NorCal trying to play spoiler.  There is a 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 16% of four.

Last, the 18 & Over men favorites are Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, and SoCal with NorCal trying to find their way in.  A 1% chance of five 4-0 teams, 7% of four.

Good luck everyone!

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5.6%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.46 / 4.26
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.41 / 4.31
Favorites: NorCal, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, Intermountain, Midwest, New England, Pacific Northwest, Texas

Just three favorites, leaving the door open for one of the contenders to grab a spot.  A 3-1 team almost certainly makes the semis and I show a bunch of teams finishing with 12-8 or 11-9 court records so could be close.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 40 & Over 4.5 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.4%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 96% / 5
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.44 / 4.17
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.33 / 4.24
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, New England, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, Southern

One team is well ahead of the others and is the only one most likely to be 4-0, so there could be a big tie at 3-1 for the last spot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5.4%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.43
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.58 / 3.51
Favorites: Caribbean, Middle States, NorCal, Pacific Northwest
Contenders: Eastern, Midwest, SoCal, Southern, Texas

The simulation likes the top-3 teams, but the fourth is still well ahead of the contenders.  Not terribly likely there are four 4-0 teams, but it is possible.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

Here is the 40 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 8.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 82% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.95 / 3.80
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.90 / 3.82
Favorites: Florida, SoCal, Southern, Southwest
Contenders: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Missouri Valley, New England

The top-4 teams are separated a bit, all four very well could advance, but the contenders have a chance.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 40 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I wasn't going to do this one as my team is playing in it, but what the heck, here is the 40 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 8.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 87% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.01 / 3.84
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.95 / 3.88
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Midwest, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Northern

Yes, the simulation has five favorites, the top-2 are a bit ahead but the other three are really close.  That may make it hard for the contenders to find their way in but they have a shot.

What do you think?

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 continues this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started three weeks ago, but this year we started later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 3.5 in San Diego, and then 40 & Over 3.0, 4.0, and 4.5 in Scottsdale, Orlando, and Surprise respectively.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages in playoffs.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 10.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 88% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.60 / 3.39
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.56 / 3.44
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Southwest, Texas
Contenders: Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, SoCal, Southern

The simulation likes the top-4 teams, but just two have a most likely record of 4-0, and two of the contenders are close behind with 3-1 most likely records.  Still, there is a good 10% chance of four undefeated teams.

What do you think?

Week 2 of 2024 USTA League Nationals continues this weekend

The second weekend of 2024 USTA League Nationals begins in two days.  It is another big weekend with the new compressed schedule, here is what is on tap.

The events starting this coming Friday the 25th are:

• 18 & Over 3.5 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 3.0 - Scottsdale
• 40 & Over 4.0 - Orlando
• 40 & Over 4.5 - Surprise

If you are in Orlando this weekend, perhaps I'll see you!

I'll try to get a few simulations up today or tomorrow, which are you interested in?

Good luck to all the teams!

A recap of week 1 of 2024 USTA League Nationals

Week 1 of this year's USTA League Nationals is in the books, and we have nine new Nationals Champions.

The USTA started Nationals later than normal this year but is still wrapping up the 2nd weekend in November, so the schedule is more compressed with a full five events this first weekend.

The 18 & Over 2.5 women played in Scottsdale and had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Florida clearly having the best record.  They swept a Missouri Valley team that hadn't lost a court in one semi while Southern beat Texas 2-1, with Southern then sweeping Florida in the final.  For what it is worth, the pre-event simulation had all four semi-finalists correct.

The 18 & Over 3.0 men were in San Diego and they too had a 3-way tie for the last semi spot with Caribbean clearly having the best record.  They couldn't get past Southern though in one semi losing 4-1 while Northern California took out Pacific Northwest in the other semi 3-2 before Southern took the final 3-2 pulling a tiny upset on 2S for the win.  The simulation didn't do as well here having NorCal and Southern as near locks, but Caribbean and PNW were the 6th and 7th picks to make it to the semis.

The 18 & Over 3.0 women had a 6-way tie at 3-1 for two spots, Caribbean and Southern taking them on court record.  NorCal took out Southern 4-1 while Pacific Northwest beat Caribbean by the same score before NorCal won the final 5-0.  The simulation had Southern and NorCal making the semis, but had Caribbean and PNW 7th and 9th most likely to advance.

The 40 & Over 3.5 men were in Orlando and saw a 4-way tie for the last semi spot with Middle States getting it on court record.  The lost to Southern 3-2 in one semi while Texas beat Intermountain by the same score in the other before Texas swept the doubles, two in match tie-breaks, for the 3-2 win.  The simulation like Middle States and Southern, and had Texas and Intermountain as the 6th and 7th picks.

The 40 & Over 3.5 women saw a 5-way tie for three spots with Mid-Atlantic getting in on court record and Eastern and Midwest in on fewer sets lost.  Mid-Atlantic beat Eastern 3-2 in their semi, while NorCal beat Midwest 3-2 in the other and then NorCal won the final 3-2.  The simulation like Midwest and NorCal as the two most likely, but Eastern and Mid-Atlantic were 10th and 12th most likely to make it.

The 18 & Over 4.0 men were in Surprise and had four 4-0 teams, there was a chance of a 5th going in to the last match, with Intermountain beating Middle States 3-2 in one semi while Southern beat NorCal 3-2 in the other.  Southern won the final 3-2 to take the title.  The simulation liked Intermountain and NorCal, but Middle States and Southern were the 6th and 7th picks.

The 18 & Over 4.0 women had a 3-way tie at 3-1 for the last semi spot and NorCal got it on court record.    They then lost to Eastern 5-0 in one semi while Mid-Atlantic took out Caribbean 4-1 in the other, before Mid-Atlantic won the final 3-2.  The simulation liked Eastern, but the others were 5th, 11th, and 15th!  Some teams were laying low it appears.

The 18 & Over 5.0 men were in Orlando and had four 3-1 teams tied for two semi spots and it went to the sets tie-breaker for NorCal to get in and games tie-breaker for Southern to allowing them to beat Florida 2-1 in one semi while Intermountain won the other by the same score, and then Intermountain won the final 2-1.  The simulation had all four teams in the top-5 most likely to make the semis.

The 18 & Over 5.0 women had three 3-1 teams vying for two spots with Texas and NorCal getting in on court record.  In the semis Texas got a 2-1 win over Middle States, while Intermountain took out NorCal 2-1 before Intermountain won the final 2-1.  The simulation had all but Texas as favorites to make the semis, they were the 8th pick

The simulations had the winner in the favorites in 6 of the 9 events, and had the other semi-finalists as favorites or nearly so in many of the events with just a few surprises, notably at the 4.0 level.

Congratulations to all the champions.

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2024 begin this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started two weeks ago, but this year we start later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has five events, 40 & Over 3.5 in Orlando, and then 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.0 in San Diego, and 4.0 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, next, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 4.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 94% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.08 / 3.82
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.00 / 3.94
Favorites: Intermountain, Midwest, Missouri Valley, SoCal
Contenders: Middle States, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, Southern

The simulation likes the top-4 teams, but just one has a most likely record of 4-0, but three of them have a 38% or greater chance of going 4-0.  The contenders aren't far behind most also projected at 3-1.  Court records and the tie-breakers will be important.

What do you think?

Edit: Found an error and corrected it that adds Southern as a contender

Simulating 2024 USTA League Nationals - 4.0 Women

USTA League Nationals for 2024 begin this weekend!  The schedule is more compressed this year, normally Nationals would have started two weeks ago, but this year we start later and have more events each weekend.

This weekend has five events, 40 & Over 3.5 in Orlando, and then 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.0 in San Diego, and 4.0 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the more compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 18 & Over 4.0 women.

Teams: 17
Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.02 / 3.81
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.96 / 3.89
Favorites: Eastern, Florida, Midwest, Southern, Texas
Contenders: Caribbean, Intermountain, New England, Southwest

The simulation likes the top-5 teams, the most likely records being 4-0 for just one and 3-1 for the other four.  One of the contenders is likely to go 3-1 as well, so could be a decent size tie-breaker there.

What do you think?

Is the USTA trying to boost Safe Sport trained numbers? Get trained, get your year-end rating early

If you pay attention to your e-mails from the USTA, you probably got one in the past few days promoting Safe Sport training with a perk being if you take one of the three on-line training courses, you will get your year-end NTRP rating level via e-mail early.

Specifically, the e-mail notes that year-end ratings should be published in the first few days of December, but if you want to get your rating sent to you via e-mail early on November 29th, they will do so if you take one of three Safe Sport training courses by November 11th.

The three courses are:

• Parent’s Guide to Misconduct in Sport
• Abuse Prevention for Adult Athletes
• SafeSport for Volunteers

I will admit I've been aware of Safe Sport and have always thought it was largely applicable primarily to juniors, so found it interesting the USTA was seemingly sending this to all USTA League players (those that care about their year-end level) as it wouldn't really be applicable to this audience.

I did take the 2nd and 3rd course above to see what the content was, and indeed they are both very much focused on juniors or youth/collegiate teams and scenarios related to that.  Certainly what is covered can apply to any sporting situation and USTA League does have teams, but none of the content addressed those sorts of scenarios.

The cynical part of me thinks the USTA has Safe Sport training metrics they need to meet and is looking to boost the numbers by using the perk of getting your year-end rating early.  There is nothing wrong with that, and some USTA League players have kids playing sports or interact with high school or college teams, but those metrics will need to be looked at with a lens knowing they were perhaps artificially boosted with members the training doesn't really apply to.

Am I being too cynical?

It is also interesting that the USTA apparently will have the ratings ready by 11/29 but it choosing to hold on to them and not publish for four days.  This is perhaps by design, wanting to wait until the work week to publish and have staff available to deal with the influx of questions and complaints, but if a lot of people take the Safe Sport training and get their rating e-mailed to them early, it is really no different than just publishing the ratings on TennisLink on 11/29.

In fact, it could cause more confusion as players get an e-mail with their new rating and then go to TennisLink and still see their old rating.  It all seems a little odd.

And to be honest, it really would be a service to league players to just publish a little earlier as some leagues start immediately in January and have registration deadlines in early December which really puts a crunch on captains to figure out who can captain which team and figure out rosters.  The four extra days could really help.

What do you think?

USTA League Nationals is less than a week away

It is the middle of October and if this was like prior years years, we'd be several weeks in to USTA League Nationals events.  But this year the schedule has been compressed into four weeks and things get started next week.

The events starting this coming Friday the 18th are:

• 18 & Over 2.5 women - Scottsdale
• 18 & Over 5.0 - Scottsdale
• 18 & Over 4.0 - Surprise
• 18 & Over 3.0 - San Diego
• 40 & Over 3.5 - Orlando

Thoughts go out to all those in Florida who had to deal with a sequence of hurricanes, and the National Campus in Orlando did close for a few days for each one, but thankfully the forecast for this weekend, and the following which will also have an event there, looks good.  There is the normal Florida chance of a shower, but otherwise looks like 80's for both weekends.

Good luck to all the teams!