Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Women

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

I already looked at the 18 & Over 3.5 men, here is the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 34%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 11%
Chance of 5 undefeated: 1.1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 86% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.66 / 3.29
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.50 / 3.39
Favorites: Midwest, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Hawaii

Have a chance: PNW, Middle States

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 12-8

There are three pretty clear favorites, then three teams really close contending for the last spot.  This results in a pretty good chance of undefeated teams with 11% chance of four of them, and 1.1% chance of five.  The contenders for the last semi spot are so close it could come down to tie-breakers, so lets hope the broken standings tie-breakers don't come into play.

What do you think?

Simulating 2026 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

It is that time of year!  The first USTA League Nationals for 2026 begins this weekend, and with that, it is time to publish the summaries of my simulations.

This weekend was supposed to have five events, but with the possible hurricane hitting the Gulf coast causing a postponement of all the events scheduled for Mobile this weekend, we have just the 18 & Over 3.0 in Orlando and 18 & Over 3.5 in Surprise.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Like I've done in recent years, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, here is the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 28%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 7.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 89% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.61 / 3.44
Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.57 / 3.49
Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Texas
Contenders: NorCal, SoCal

Have a chance: Caribbean, Southwest

Record to make semis: 3-1 / 13-7

One team is a far and away favorite and expected to go 4-0.  The next three I'd consider favorites but are tightly grouped and not that far ahead of the contenders.  This means a 3-1 record is likely to make the semis with five teams projected to have a 3-1 record.  This could be very competitive.

Given how competitive it may be, there is a pretty small chance of four 4-0 teams, but there are still scenarios where there could be five or six.

What do you think?

The first week of 2026 USTA League Nationals will now be the last week

I just heard that the events scheduled for Mobile, AL this weekend (October 9-11) will now be played November 13-15, still in Mobile.  For those following along, this is due to the tropical storm and possible hurricane expected to hit the Gulf Coast this Friday.

This affects the 18 & Over 2.5 Women, 4.5 Men and Women, and 5.0 Men and Women.  The 18 & Over 3.0 event in Orlando and 3.5 event in Surprise are still on as scheduled as far as I know.  Orlando's forecast does call for some thunderstorms, but probably not much more than you'd expect for Florida in early October.

This is probably the best move, as having folks travel to a location that could be a disaster area with possible flooding and loss of power and utilities was probably not a good idea.  What is very nice is that it was not canceled, but just postponed and will still be held.  Being five weeks later may affect some being able to attend, but for those that can attend, they'll still get their Nationals experience.

What do you think?

2026 USTA League Nationals week 2 schedules are showing up

The schedules for the second weekend of USTA League Nationals are finally showing up.  Week 1 showed up nearly two weeks ago, but week 2, just 9 days away now, had been slow to come out.  That is probably at least partly due to having to figure out what to do with the events in Mobile where there is severe weather forecast for week 1.

As I write this, the 40 & Over 4.0 and 4.5 have shown up.  Those are the two events being played week 2.  I'm guessing the schedules for week 3 may not show up until next week.

The schedules can be found here.

Weather check for the first weekend of 2026 USTA League Nationals - Rain!

The first weekend of USTA League Nationals starts this coming Friday, so we are more than close enough to check and see what the weather forecast is at each location.

There are a bunch of events in Mobile, AL, namely 18 & Over 2.5 Women, 4.5 Men and Women, and 5.0 Men and Women.  Unfortunately, according to Accuweather's 10-day forecast, there is a almost certain chance of rain on Friday and Saturday.

So, that isn't looking promising.  Yes, it is still hurricane season in the Gulf, and yes this rain is from what may become a named storm.  In some years the USTA has avoided Florida and the Southeast the first few weekends of Nationals as hurricane season winds down, but Mobile is up the first week this year and this may be the result.

And no, there aren't many (any?) real indoor courts in the area, so if it rains, they are hoping for short sets at best or struggling to complete the event at worst.

Also in potential danger is the 18 & Over 3.0 event in Orlando at the National Campus, where rain is forecast as well.

The chance of rain is about the same, just swapped days, but the hours of precipitation is lower, so perhaps less of the event will be disrupted.  There are also some indoor courts at the location but they aren't always available to be used.

Thankfully, sort of, there is an event in the Southwest in Surprise, AZ where the 18 & Over 3.5 event will be played, and I don't think it is going to rain there.

No rain, but hot!  I'm guessing players would take extreme (but dry) heat over rained out matches and a shortened event, but feel free to voice your opinion.

Now, there is a chance of "weather" in any location, it has rained on events in Arizona and California before, but the chance of rain/storms/hurricanes is higher in some locations than others.  Is the USTA right to use facilities they own or have a lot of capacity at the risk of rain?  Or should they primarily go to locations where the risk is lower?

Does a team's full roster go to USTA League Nationals?

Many teams that go to Nationals have reasonably big rosters.  This isn't always the case, but to make it through the regular season, local playoffs, Districts, and Sectionals can sometimes mean there are availability issues along the way and having a bigger roster helps ensure players are available.

But when a team has a big roster and is going to Nationals, does everyone go?

There are different strategies, and sometimes availability dictates the strategy, but some teams go planning to win and take just their best players planning to play them every match, or nearly every match.  But others will take close to the full roster and plan to get everyone that goes at least one match.

I thought it would be interesting to see what teams were on track to do this year, and while I think the deadline to register players for the first week of Nationals has not passed yet, we are getting close and the registration numbers are probably pretty close to who will be going.

For each level and gender, I looked at the roster size of the team, and the number of players registered for Nationals at this point.  I'm showing the smallest, largest, and average for both the full roster and Nationals registrations.

18 & Over 2.5 Women
Rostered (min/max/avg): 7 / 20 / 11.7
Registered (min/max/avg): 5 / 10 / 7.5

The registered counts for Nationals are quite small, one team taking just the minimum, and on average a team only having 2.5 more than the minimum, but they are playing just three courts (5 players).

18 & Over 3.0 Women

Rostered: 11 / 24 / 17.7

Registered: 9 / 17 / 11.5

These teams are larger with 3.5 more than the minimum on average.

18 & Over 3.0 Men

Rostered: 10 / 24 / 15.9

Registered: 8 / 20 / 11.0

Similar to the women, one team taking the minimum, but one team taking a full 20.

18 & Over 3.5 Women

Rostered: 13 / 29 / 18.1

Registered: 9 / 15 / 12.4

Some larger rosters, the registered numbers only creep up a little.

18 & Over 3.5 Men

Rostered: 11 / 24 / 18.6

Registered: 9 / 18 / 12.2

Similar to the women.

18 & Over 4.5 Women

Rostered: 15 / 24 / 18.3

Registered: 8 / 14 / 10.9

These registered counts are slimmer even though they still play five courts.

18 & Over 4.5 Men

Rostered: 14 / 27 / 19.8

Registered: 9 / 17 / 11.5

Also a little smaller than the 3.5 men despite some large regular season rosters.

18 & Over 5.0 Women

Rostered: 7 / 17 / 11.0

Registered: 5 / 7 / 6.1

A surprisingly small number of registered players.  These ladies are playing every match!

18 & Over 5.0 Men

Rostered: 8 / 15 / 12.3

Registered: 5 / 9 / 6.8

Only slightly larger than the women's registered counts.

So in general it appears teams do take a surprisingly small subset of of their rosters, sometimes the minimum, but generally only 2-4 more than the minimum.  Whether this is due to availability, or teams are taking only those they think give them the best chance to win, the registered counts are not that large.

What do you think?  Are the number of players registered for Nationals fewer than you'd think?

Note: Registered counts are as of when I wrote this 5-6 days before the cut-off to register, so registered counts could perhaps inch up.

Week One 2026 USTA League Nationals 18 & Over teams are on TennisLink

TennisLink now shows all of the 18 & Over Nationals with the teams (presumably) registered and planning to attend for the first weekend of Natioinals.  The schedules for the first weekend (less than two weeks away now!) came out late last week and I did some visualizations of the 4.5 and 5.0 championships.

As teams registered on the Match Team Tennis app, one could see the teams, but it always feels more official when they show up on TennisLink.

Here are the team counts for each championship between played October 8-10:

• 2.5 Women - 17
• 3.0 Women - 17
• 3.0 Men - 16
• 3.5 Women - 17
• 3.5 Men - 17
• 4.5 Women - 15
• 4.5 Men - 14
• 5.0 Women - 10
• 5.0 Men - 12

Stay tuned for more.