March Madness Pre-Tournament Rankings

College basketball takes a lot more time to do rankings for so all of you have probably noticed the silence on this blog.  But with the NCAA Basketball Tournament starting shortly I had to make the time to get current rankings through the games played Sunday the 13th.

So here they are.  And it is interesting to make a few observations.

The 1 seeds are the top-4 in my rankings so things line up there but things aren't so clear with the 2's.  Only San Diego State should be a 2 with Notre Dame close at #9 but UNC and Florida are way down at #15 and #18.  Are they the 2's most likely to lose early?

Who was robbed?  Texas should be a 2 but is only a 4, Kentucky the same, and Purdue is close as a 3.

I'll be filling out a bracket using these rankings so lets see how they do compared to other polls and systems.  Stay tuned.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Ohio State	78.137	32-2	64.392	+0, -0.628
2	Kansas	76.971	32-2	64.229	+0, -0.146
3	Duke	76.699	30-4	64.348	+2, +1.032
4	Pittsburgh	75.354	27-5	64.387	-1, -0.491
5	Texas	75.077	27-7	64.243	+1, -0.233
6	San Diego St	74.793	30-2	64.132	+3, +0.885
7	Kentucky	74.308	25-8	64.312	+4, +1.008
8	Purdue	74.246	25-7	65.138	-4, -1.496
9	Notre Dame	73.599	26-6	65.037	+4, +0.518
10	Brigham Young	73.524	29-4	63.562	-3, -1.172
11	Wisconsin	73.326	23-8	65.185	-3, -0.631
12	Louisville	73.324	25-9	64.647	+3, +0.981
13	Syracuse	73.201	26-7	65.100	-1, -0.089
14	Connecticut	72.891	26-9	66.186	+9, +1.747
15	North Carolina	72.527	26-7	65.738	-5, -0.783
16	Washington	71.866	23-10	64.017	+3, +0.026
17	Cincinnati	71.729	25-8	63.064	-3, -0.775
18	Florida	71.693	26-7	63.971	+0, -0.156
19	West Virginia	71.635	20-11	67.199	-2, -0.495
20	Utah St	71.592	29-3	60.057	-4, -0.651
21	Georgetown DC	70.648	21-10	67.289	-1, -0.822
22	Illinois	70.603	19-13	65.930	+0, -0.553
23	Marquette	70.442	21-14	64.803	+3, -0.039
24	Kansas St	70.380	21-10	64.533	-3, -0.963
25	UNLV	70.204	24-8	63.504	+5, -0.011
26	Arizona	70.039	27-7	63.527	+3, -0.186
26	Clemson	70.039	21-11	62.884	+9, +0.387
28	Belmont	69.954	30-4	57.324	+3, -0.190
29	St John's NY	69.915	21-12	66.456	-4, -0.745
30	George Mason	69.831	26-6	60.307	+2, -0.214
30	Temple	69.831	25-7	61.952	+4, -0.133
32	Xavier OH	69.697	24-7	62.283	-5, -0.602
33	Missouri	69.647	22-10	63.031	-9, -1.284
34	Villanova	69.616	21-11	65.280	-6, -0.621
35	Richmond	69.172	27-7	60.997	+4, +0.538
36	Vanderbilt	69.157	23-10	63.424	-3, -0.832
37	Michigan	68.998	19-13	65.780	+3, +0.425
38	Texas A&M	68.926	23-8	62.729	+3, +0.439
39	Gonzaga	68.696	23-9	61.071	+5, +0.491
40	New Mexico	68.440	20-12	62.899	-3, -0.312
41	Virginia Tech	68.426	21-11	63.420	+1, +0.019
42	Penn St	68.381	19-14	66.637	+19, +1.077
43	Butler	68.364	22-9	62.221	+3, +0.360
44	Florida St	68.360	21-10	63.076	-6, -0.289
45	Southern Cal	68.322	19-14	64.565	+0, +0.158
46	Michigan St	68.237	18-14	67.010	+2, +0.413
47	Old Dominion	68.200	27-6	60.885	-4, -0.081
48	UCLA	67.983	22-10	63.630	-12, -1.363
49	Colorado	67.945	20-13	63.246	+8, +0.537
50	Oakland	67.643	24-9	60.636	+17, +0.769
51	Washington St	67.638	19-12	63.319	-1, -0.149
52	St Mary's CA	67.410	23-8	60.545	-5, -0.440
53	Harvard	67.332	21-6	60.200	-2, -0.286
54	Seton Hall	67.321	13-18	66.252	-5, -0.469
55	Nebraska	67.239	19-12	61.482	-3, -0.357
56	Tennessee	67.223	19-14	64.770	-2, -0.344
57	New Orleans	67.126	7-2	58.604	+1, -0.225
58	Northwestern	67.096	18-13	64.159	+12, +0.602
59	Alabama	67.077	21-11	61.008	+3, -0.194
60	Maryland	67.075	19-14	62.562	+0, -0.254
61	Iona	66.937	22-11	59.324	-8, -0.634
62	Miami FL	66.828	19-14	63.581	+7, +0.245
63	Georgia	66.815	21-11	62.975	+1, -0.318
64	Wichita St	66.794	23-8	58.827	+1, -0.163
65	Alabama-Birmingham	66.744	22-8	61.088	-9, -0.697
66	Duquesne	66.669	17-12	60.949	-11, -0.799
67	Cleveland St	66.569	24-8	61.212	+1, -0.141
68	Boston College	66.431	20-12	63.858	-9, -0.902
69	California	66.422	17-14	64.987	-6, -0.774
70	Minnesota	66.384	17-14	65.450	-4, -0.536
71	UTEP	66.292	24-9	59.888	+0, +0.059
72	Oklahoma St	66.034	19-13	63.776	+5, +0.417
73	Southern Miss	65.936	19-10	60.792	-1, -0.086
74	Colorado St	65.706	18-12	63.591	-1, -0.270
75	Rutgers	65.547	15-17	64.781	+5, +0.600
76	Marshall	65.497	20-11	61.239	-2, -0.384
77	Princeton	65.420	24-6	59.977	+5, +0.557
78	VA Commonwealth	65.348	23-11	61.391	-2, -0.306
79	Bucknell	65.078	25-8	58.571	+2, +0.135
80	Missouri St	65.049	25-8	59.669	-1, -0.170
81	Coll of Charleston	65.041	24-10	59.275	-6, -0.769
82	Mississippi	64.861	20-13	61.453	+3, +0.232
83	Boise St	64.753	19-12	60.471	+6, +0.389
84	Morehead St	64.457	22-9	58.052	+0, -0.235
85	Tulsa	64.433	19-13	61.474	+1, -0.156
86	Baylor	64.417	17-13	62.053	-8, -1.049
87	Memphis	64.253	25-9	60.887	+17, +1.136
88	Valparaiso	64.248	21-11	60.984	+0, -0.241
89	Wofford	64.179	21-12	59.176	+3, +0.326
90	LIU-Brooklyn	64.171	27-5	56.758	-3, -0.388
91	Long Beach St	64.120	20-11	61.379	-8, -0.610
92	Iowa St	63.874	16-16	62.116	-2, -0.144
93	Fairfield	63.732	24-7	57.681	+0, -0.064
94	Oregon	63.675	15-17	63.517	+12, +0.753
95	Virginia	63.626	16-15	62.458	-4, -0.374
96	James Madison	63.535	21-11	60.575	-2, -0.181
97	Indiana	63.400	12-20	64.085	+0, -0.263
98	Dayton	63.324	22-13	61.800	+11, +0.447
99	Kent St	63.266	22-11	59.552	+16, +0.534
100	Portland	63.246	20-11	60.900	+1, -0.059
101	Providence RI	63.186	15-17	63.540	-5, -0.492
102	Iowa	63.172	11-20	64.682	-3, -0.205
102	Stanford	63.172	15-16	62.431	-7, -0.511
104	Rider	63.076	23-10	58.852	-2, -0.203
105	North Carolina St	62.997	15-16	63.208	-7, -0.393
106	Air Force	62.961	14-14	62.786	-6, -0.382
107	Texas Tech	62.861	13-19	62.941	+5, +0.062
108	Drexel	62.775	21-10	60.580	-1, -0.124
109	Georgia Tech	62.750	13-18	62.834	-6, -0.514
109	St Peter's	62.750	20-13	60.341	+13, +0.275
111	Coastal Carolina	62.621	24-5	56.068	+0, -0.239
112	Arkansas	62.617	18-13	60.086	-2, -0.251
113	East Tennessee St	62.615	21-11	59.071	+0, -0.156
114	Montana	62.529	19-10	58.959	+13, +0.207
115	Creighton	62.427	19-14	59.152	+5, -0.116
116	Indiana St	62.424	19-13	61.059	+1, -0.233
117	Northern Colorado	62.414	19-10	58.559	-1, -0.258
118	Wright St	62.407	17-14	60.934	+0, -0.185
119	UW-Milwaukee	62.317	19-13	61.779	-14, -0.708
120	Oral Roberts	62.291	19-15	59.734	-1, -0.296
121	Akron	62.260	22-12	58.678	+16, +0.579
122	Hofstra	62.258	20-11	60.737	-1, -0.236
123	Mississippi St	62.240	17-14	60.937	+1, -0.159
124	UC-Santa Barbara	62.222	16-13	60.132	+31, +1.515
125	Northern Iowa	62.135	18-13	60.365	+1, -0.198
126	South Florida	62.121	10-23	65.863	+2, -0.121
127	Buffalo	62.036	17-13	58.317	-13, -0.702
128	Northern Arizona	62.032	17-12	58.240	+3, -0.119
129	Oklahoma	62.018	14-17	63.503	+15, +0.715
130	Central Florida	62.011	18-11	60.549	-22, -0.870
131	Murray St	61.975	21-8	56.776	-1, -0.197
132	Rhode Island	61.839	19-13	61.091	+0, -0.237
133	Detroit Mercy	61.800	16-16	61.112	+1, -0.183
134	South Dakota St	61.743	17-12	57.538	-11, -0.724
135	Arizona St	61.723	12-19	64.163	-6, -0.496
136	Idaho	61.713	17-13	59.923	-11, -0.671
137	Winston-Salem	61.480	16-8	59.378	-1, -0.322
138	New Mexico St	61.469	14-17	61.859	-5, -0.555
139	IUPUI	61.409	17-14	60.666	-4, -0.478
140	UNC-Asheville	61.347	16-13	58.460	+0, -0.234
141	Utah	61.339	12-18	64.729	+1, -0.196
142	East Carolina	61.312	15-15	61.666	+12, +0.522
143	Vermont	61.304	23-8	56.754	+0, -0.218
144	St Louis U.	61.257	11-19	61.743	-6, -0.411
145	Austin Peay	61.067	18-13	58.709	+0, -0.180
146	South Carolina	61.057	14-16	62.716	-7, -0.583
147	San Francisco	61.016	15-14	61.720	+2, -0.001
148	Furman	60.991	20-10	58.129	-2, -0.239
149	St Bonaventure	60.977	16-14	61.069	-8, -0.570
150	Ohio U.	60.794	18-15	58.296	-3, -0.395
151	Santa Clara	60.789	17-14	59.551	+0, -0.072
152	Nevada	60.746	12-19	61.477	+1, -0.046
153	Robert Morris PA	60.726	18-14	60.025	+3, +0.036
154	Central Connecticut St	60.631	19-12	57.019	-2, -0.205
155	SMU	60.511	14-14	58.190	+2, -0.092
156	Hawaii	60.509	17-12	58.780	-6, -0.374
157	Loyola-Chicago	60.330	16-15	59.036	+1, -0.173
158	Lipscomb	60.226	16-13	59.257	+3, -0.166
159	Rice	60.163	12-18	61.097	+4, -0.202
160	American U.	60.162	22-9	57.596	+1, -0.230
161	George Washington	60.007	17-14	59.878	-13, -1.053
162	Quinnipiac	59.998	22-9	55.914	+5, -0.190
163	UW-Green Bay	59.969	13-18	61.997	+3, -0.245
164	Western Michigan	59.856	19-12	57.842	+1, -0.392
165	Pacific CA	59.848	14-15	60.252	-6, -0.646
166	Davidson	59.835	16-14	58.835	+3, -0.243
167	Cal Poly SLO	59.752	15-14	59.367	-7, -0.684
168	Oregon St	59.727	11-20	62.366	+8, +0.064
169	La Salle	59.610	15-18	60.410	+3, -0.184
170	Boston U.	59.560	21-13	57.545	+4, -0.201
171	Fresno St	59.535	13-17	60.594	-3, -0.621
172	North Texas	59.515	20-11	56.336	+11, +0.316
173	TCU	59.473	11-22	62.445	+12, +0.342
174	Jacksonville FL	59.470	18-11	57.932	+3, -0.181
175	Miami OH	59.405	15-16	62.383	-2, -0.371
176	Sam Houston St	59.393	14-13	57.685	+2, -0.086
177	Ball St	59.380	18-12	57.643	-6, -0.419
178	San Jose St	59.350	16-15	60.288	+12, +0.638
179	Weber St	59.265	15-13	59.367	-15, -1.085
180	North Dakota St	59.228	12-15	58.082	-1, -0.219
181	Pennsylvania	59.142	13-15	60.215	-6, -0.612
182	Florida Atlantic	59.118	19-10	58.538	-2, -0.199
183	Massachusetts	59.105	14-15	60.940	-13, -0.889
184	Lehigh	59.097	16-15	58.077	-2, -0.150
185	Yale	59.072	14-13	59.554	-4, -0.229
186	Cornell NY	58.894	10-18	60.350	+0, -0.181
187	Canisius	58.892	15-15	58.599	+0, -0.170
188	St Joseph's PA	58.884	11-22	62.841	+19, +1.318
189	Loyola-Maryland	58.849	15-15	58.621	-1, -0.153
190	Arkansas St	58.702	15-15	58.081	+1, +0.053
191	Evansville	58.686	14-15	60.569	-2, -0.222
192	McNeese St	58.386	17-11	56.667	+5, +0.121
193	Middle Tennessee St	58.359	15-16	56.782	-9, -0.778
194	IPFW	58.342	17-12	57.125	-2, -0.292
195	Northeastern	58.248	11-20	61.371	-2, -0.209
196	Western Carolina	58.219	17-15	58.979	-2, -0.178
197	St Francis NY	58.078	15-15	57.249	-1, -0.208
198	Hampton	58.012	23-8	53.632	+13, +0.554
199	Bradley	57.914	11-20	59.921	+2, -0.176
200	Columbia NY	57.911	14-13	58.381	-1, -0.207
201	DePaul	57.846	7-24	64.477	-3, -0.354
202	Tulane	57.813	10-17	59.341	-7, -0.488
203	VMI	57.751	14-13	57.233	-1, -0.172
204	Tennessee Tech	57.624	17-12	56.670	-1, -0.200
205	Lafayette	57.601	12-19	59.171	-5, -0.499
206	Delaware	57.402	14-17	61.047	-1, -0.230
207	Mercer	57.364	14-18	58.565	+1, -0.194
208	Liberty	57.352	16-13	57.508	+1, -0.197
209	Maine	57.270	14-15	56.879	+1, -0.220
210	Charleston Southern	57.225	12-16	57.897	+2, -0.221
211	Loyola Marymount	57.200	9-21	60.007	+6, -0.089
212	North Florida	57.193	15-19	61.150	+1, -0.217
213	Appalachian St	57.180	14-15	58.769	+1, -0.192
214	Winthrop	57.172	11-17	58.673	+2, -0.161
215	William & Mary	57.158	9-22	60.977	+0, -0.212
216	Texas-San Antonio	57.148	16-13	56.671	+21, +0.796
217	CSU-Northridge	57.145	12-18	59.672	+1, -0.108
218	Siena	57.112	13-18	59.615	+1, -0.134
219	Arkansas-Little Rock	57.074	17-16	57.871	+17, +0.567
220	Drake	57.012	13-18	59.444	+0, -0.212
221	Charlotte	56.996	10-20	61.331	+1, -0.188
222	UNC-Wilmington	56.963	13-18	59.683	-2, -0.261
223	Holy Cross MA	56.875	8-21	58.759	+0, -0.229
224	Western Kentucky	56.859	16-16	57.754	-20, -0.783
225	Stephen F. Austin	56.854	14-11	54.989	-19, -0.760
226	UC-Irvine	56.825	12-19	58.832	-1, -0.168
227	Georgia St	56.756	12-19	59.032	-1, -0.210
228	Houston	56.723	10-18	59.988	-1, -0.168
229	Wagner	56.659	13-17	59.634	+0, -0.124
230	Pepperdine	56.618	11-21	60.796	+0, -0.124
231	Bowling Green	56.597	13-19	58.602	+0, -0.102
232	Auburn	56.564	10-20	59.664	-8, -0.434
233	Stony Brook	56.548	14-17	56.850	+2, +0.040
234	Denver	56.502	13-17	57.322	-1, -0.070
235	Louisiana-Lafayette	56.476	13-14	57.231	-3, -0.185
236	Wyoming	56.319	8-21	62.004	-8, -0.519
237	Southern Illinois	56.273	13-19	59.929	-3, -0.236
238	Brown	56.149	10-17	58.816	+0, -0.195
239	LSU	55.901	11-21	60.107	+2, -0.130
240	Louisiana Tech	55.889	11-20	60.002	+0, -0.199
241	UC-Davis	55.833	8-20	59.355	-2, -0.259
242	Albany NY	55.800	16-16	56.948	+1, -0.196
243	Tennessee St	55.759	12-16	58.077	-1, -0.264
244	Mt St Mary's MD	55.648	11-21	59.468	+3, -0.145
245	Eastern Kentucky	55.640	13-16	56.527	+0, -0.210
246	Elon	55.594	11-17	58.203	+0, -0.241
247	Morgan St	55.541	17-14	55.143	+16, +0.655
248	Lamar	55.475	9-17	56.833	+4, -0.085
249	Illinois St	55.442	12-19	58.036	+0, -0.190
250	Montana St	55.393	11-18	58.889	+0, -0.236
251	Nicholls St	55.312	10-14	57.699	+0, -0.311
252	Presbyterian	55.244	13-18	59.595	+2, -0.212
253	Texas St-San Marcos	55.219	14-15	55.993	+3, -0.094
254	SE Louisiana St	55.133	12-14	57.250	-1, -0.347
255	Utah Valley St	55.120	15-11	53.181	-11, -0.830
256	Coppin St	55.018	13-14	55.660	-8, -0.737
257	Southern Utah	54.939	10-18	57.821	+1, -0.223
258	Navy	54.887	10-20	58.021	-1, -0.284
259	Northwestern St	54.871	16-13	55.358	+3, -0.032
260	Illinois-Chicago	54.861	6-24	61.705	-1, -0.231
261	Chattanooga	54.760	14-16	58.706	+0, -0.195
262	Eastern Washington	54.718	8-20	59.374	-2, -0.246
263	Savannah St	54.714	8-18	60.307	+10, +0.488
264	Gardner-Webb	54.559	9-21	59.874	+0, -0.171
265	CSU-Fullerton	54.498	10-20	58.678	-10, -0.821
266	Texas-Arlington	54.472	9-16	57.205	+1, -0.030
267	Sacred Heart	54.462	11-18	57.300	-2, -0.199
268	UC-Riverside	54.372	10-19	59.930	+9, +0.302
269	Campbell	54.301	11-19	57.429	-1, -0.189
270	Portland St	54.255	13-16	57.033	+12, +0.467
271	St Francis PA	54.247	9-21	59.403	-2, -0.200
272	Youngstown St	54.214	7-21	60.949	-1, -0.187
273	UMKC	54.180	15-14	57.045	-3, -0.264
274	Wake Forest	53.875	8-24	62.165	+1, -0.249
275	Monmouth NJ	53.807	9-21	57.892	+3, -0.173
276	Central Michigan	53.787	9-21	58.587	-2, -0.396
277	Seattle U.	53.629	11-20	58.916	-11, -1.019
278	Army	53.595	10-19	57.857	+2, -0.227
279	Texas Southern	53.591	19-12	54.483	-7, -0.714
280	Troy	53.574	7-21	59.347	+1, -0.220
281	Hartford	53.385	11-20	57.064	+2, -0.394
282	The Citadel	53.346	8-22	58.855	+4, -0.165
283	Bethune-Cookman	53.254	17-12	54.577	-4, -0.578
284	Northern Illinois	53.226	8-21	58.538	-9, -0.898
285	Florida Gulf Coast	53.217	10-20	58.115	+2, -0.236
286	Alabama St	53.165	15-17	53.596	+24, +1.272
287	Towson	53.125	4-26	60.438	+1, -0.206
288	Florida Int'l	53.024	9-19	57.234	+0, -0.307
289	Jackson St	53.008	15-15	53.797	-4, -0.567
289	UNC-Greensboro	53.008	7-24	59.519	+1, -0.166
291	New Hampshire	52.786	11-18	57.125	+2, -0.204
292	Fordham	52.748	7-21	61.137	+2, -0.219
293	Eastern Michigan	52.713	6-22	58.236	-2, -0.353
294	South Dakota	52.678	14-15	53.021	+2, -0.135
295	Niagara NY	52.620	9-23	59.144	+0, -0.201
296	San Diego	52.612	4-24	61.615	+1, -0.179
297	Norfolk St	52.580	12-20	56.043	-5, -0.448
298	North Carolina A&T	52.492	12-17	57.007	-14, -1.116
299	SE Missouri St	52.446	9-22	57.481	-1, -0.202
300	South Alabama	52.391	10-16	56.899	+1, -0.167
301	Jacksonville St	52.368	4-25	57.789	-1, -0.214
302	Tennessee-Martin	52.229	10-21	57.724	+0, -0.188
303	Bryant	52.154	8-21	59.532	+1, -0.190
304	Idaho St	52.088	7-20	59.726	+1, -0.249
305	North Dakota	51.994	15-14	54.047	-6, -0.618
306	Stetson	51.987	8-22	58.485	+0, -0.127
307	Manhattan	51.773	6-25	59.761	+2, -0.180
308	High Point	51.765	10-19	58.172	+0, -0.214
309	Eastern Illinois	51.748	7-20	57.558	-2, -0.259
310	Colgate	51.623	7-23	58.682	+2, -0.206
311	North Carolina Central	51.246	11-15	55.655	-8, -1.120
312	Binghamton	51.164	8-23	57.596	+4, -0.194
313	New Jersey Tech	51.157	11-15	53.874	-2, -0.681
314	CSU-Bakersfield	51.147	9-19	58.371	+1, -0.237
315	Mississippi Valley St	51.123	13-19	56.213	-2, -0.573
316	Samford	51.020	10-19	57.545	+1, -0.168
317	Marist	50.790	6-27	60.056	+1, -0.180
318	Sacramento St	50.605	5-21	58.189	+1, -0.204
319	Delaware St	50.580	7-21	57.415	-5, -0.865
320	Kennesaw St	50.575	7-23	58.222	+1, -0.158
321	TAMU-Corpus Christi	50.510	7-21	59.237	+1, -0.069
322	Longwood	50.367	8-19	58.392	+1, -0.208
323	Dartmouth	50.103	5-23	59.851	+1, -0.201
324	Alabama A&M	49.777	10-15	52.847	-4, -0.972
325	Fairleigh Dickinson	49.753	5-24	57.882	+0, -0.164
326	SC-Upstate	49.733	5-25	60.164	+0, -0.179
327	Louisiana-Monroe	48.966	5-24	57.724	+1, -0.137
328	Florida A&M	48.670	8-20	55.271	-1, -0.651
329	Grambling St	48.232	12-21	53.945	+1, +0.119
330	South Carolina St	48.193	6-22	54.907	-1, -0.613
331	Radford	47.639	2-24	59.805	+1, -0.213
332	MD-Eastern Shore	47.477	7-22	56.229	-1, -0.596
333	Toledo	47.427	3-28	59.408	+0, -0.326
334	Georgia Southern	47.315	2-27	58.478	+1, -0.195
335	Prairie View A&M	47.191	7-22	55.101	-1, -0.551
336	Western Illinois	47.157	4-23	57.833	+0, -0.202
337	MD-Baltimore County	46.895	5-25	58.263	+0, -0.196
338	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	46.398	7-24	56.244	+0, -0.159
339	Texas-Pan American	45.743	3-25	55.834	+1, +0.121
340	Howard	45.559	6-24	55.426	-1, -0.883
341	Houston Baptist	45.385	5-24	54.267	+1, +0.529
342	Central Arkansas	45.322	2-24	57.273	-1, -0.093
343	SIU-Edwardsville	44.503	4-21	58.057	+0, -0.210
344	Alcorn St	43.737	4-24	56.179	+0, -0.220
345	Centenary LA	43.193	1-27	59.215	+0, -0.224
346	Chicago St	42.732	4-25	57.227	+0, +0.172
347	Southern U.	41.447	3-24	54.299	+0, -0.219

The computer goes to 5-1 against the spread in the playoffs; Today's Seahawks/Bears and Jets/Patriots picks

With Pittsburgh's and Green Bay's wins yesterday, the computer is now 5-1 picking games against the spread in the playoffs.  In fact, it is doing better against the spread than winners, 5-1 vs 4-2, although picking winners it is handily beating Vegas which is only 2-4.

Last week, the computer went 3-1 barely missing on only Kansas City +3 (computer had Baltimore by 2.8), but nailing Seattle +11.5 (complete analysis actually showed a good chance of a Seattle win), Green Bay +3 (computer did pick the upset in fact), and the Jets +3 (also picked the upset).

In today's games New England is a 10 point favorite but the computer likes them by only 7.4, and Chicago is up to a 10-11 point pick but the computer says that isn't enough having it at 11.6.

Could Seattle pull the upset again?  After all, they won in Chicago earlier in the year!

Their performance chart shows the 2nd Saints game continued their earlier trend of being good or bad, no individual game performance overlapping their current rating.  So, it is reasonable to think that they will again play very well or very bad.  The problem this week is that 6 of their 8 road games were bad, the good ones being at Chicago and Arizona.  Of their 8 good games, 6 were at home.  So it is less likely that the "good" Seattle shows up this week than the last two.

But if the good Seattle shows up, that team has an average rating of 86.9, they are playing a Chicago team with an 84.8 rating so perhaps they have a chance.  Especially since Chicago has played worse at home than on the road with 3 of their 4 losses at home and an average rating of 81.9 at home vs 87.4 on the road.







New England on the other hand has been far and away the best team the latter part of the year, only getting better each week the last 7 weeks.  The Jets have been good, but can clearly have a down game as happened last time they visited the Pats and the following week hosting Miami.

At home the Pats rating averages 90.6, right about their overall rating and the Jets on the road are 85.9, just below their overall rating.  So nothing other than a worse than normal Patriots and a great game by the Jets points to a Jets win.  But that is why they play the game.

Green Bay at Atlanta Preview

Green Bay plays at Atlanta on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Green Bay is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 88.161 against a schedule strength of 82.575.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down in stretches, their worst game being against Miami and best game being against the Giants.  They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



Atlanta is ranked #6 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 85.846 against a schedule strength of 80.025.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were much more consistent with just 2 poor showings in 2 of their 3 losses, their worst game being @Philadelphia and best game being @St Louis.  They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 13-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head are separated by 2 degrees through Philly and San Francisco as follows:

1 Green_Bay-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->San_Francisco-->Atlanta

Head to head Atlanta won by 3 at home, Green Bay beat Philly on the road twice while Atlanta lost on the road, and Atlanta best the 49ers by 2 at home while Green Bay beat them by 18.

The spread is Atlanta by 2 and the computer agrees but just by 0.7.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 .Green Bay             +2.0 over *x              Atlanta  0.7  1.3 0.526 0.550

This game is interesting because Green Bay has been so up and down.  Green Bay has 8 single game ratings in the 90s, 4 of those over 96, while Atlanta has only 4 in the 90s and none over 92.033.  So at their best, Green Bay is the better team.  But Green Bay can be bad too with 3 games in the 70s and 5 below 83, while Atlanta also has 3 in the 70s but no other below 83.

Enjoy!

Baltimore at Pittsburgh Preview

Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Baltimore is ranked #4 by the computer with a 13-4 record and a rating of 87.222 against a schedule strength of 81.723.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent and finished fairly strong, their worst game being @Cincinnati and best game being @Kansas City.  They are 8-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 12-4 picking winners in their games.



Pittsburgh is ranked #3 by the computer with a 12-4 record and a rating of 87.520 against a schedule strength of 82.001.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a little more up and down their downs standing out a bit more, their worst game being @New Orleans and best game being @Tampa Bay.  They are 10-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head twice are separated by 2 degrees as follows:

1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
1 Baltimore-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Atlanta-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Buffalo-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Carolina-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Cleveland-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Miami-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_England-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->New_Orleans-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->NY_Jets-->Pittsburgh
2 Baltimore-->Tampa_Bay-->Pittsburgh

The teams split their 2 games, the road team winning by a field goal each time.

The spread is Pittsburgh by 3 and the computer agrees nearly exactly picking them by 3.3.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*xPittsburgh            -3.0 over  .            Baltimore  3.3  0.3 0.629 0.512

Enjoy!

BCS National Championship Preview

This preview was sent to subscribers, posting it here now for all.

Oregon is ranked #1 by the computer with a 12-0 record and a rating of 92.291 against a schedule strength of 70.341.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent all year other than their high and low, their worst game being @California and best game being against Stanford.  They are 7-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-5 picking their games against the spread and 10-1 picking winners in their games.



Auburn is ranked #3 by the computer with a 13-0 record and a rating of 85.964 against a schedule strength of 70.564.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent too but finishing a bit stronger than Oregon did, their worst game being against Clemson and best game being against South Carolina.  They are 8-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-5 picking their games against the spread and 10-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are through 3 as follows:

3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Alabama-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Georgia-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Kentucky-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->LSU-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->Mississippi-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Auburn
3 Oregon-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Auburn

The spread opened Auburn by 3 but has shrunk to 1 to 1.5 and the computer disagrees in either case picking the upset having Oregon by an astounding 5.9.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 *Oregon                +3.0 over ..               Auburn  5.9  8.9 0.736 0.829

Why does the computer like Oregon so much more given they played near identical schedule strengths?  Simply put, Oregon played a similar schedule but handle them much more decisively than Auburn did, other than the Cal game of course.  And given the Cal game and how the teams finished though, even though the computer does give a little more weight to games at the end of the season, it is useful to look at just those games.

Using Oregon's last 5 games, their rating would be 90.5, the last 4 89.3, and the last 3 87.6.  This compared with the season long rating of 92.291.

Using Auburn's last 5 games, their rating would be 87.5, the last 4 88.7, and the last 3 91.4.  This compared with the season long rating of 85.961.

So Auburn was on the rise, and Cal on a bit of a downswing, to the point that Auburn could be argued to be playing better and have a higher rating if just the last 3 games are used.  However, these ratings are skewed by Oregon's worst game being in that set and Auburn's best game being so.  If you consider both of those completely valid and an indication of how the teams were playing, then the computer's pick perhaps isn't correct.

However, if you throw the best and worst out from each teams last 5 you get Oregon rated at 92.6 and Auburn at 86.3.  So you decide, were those highs/lows anomalies or an accurate indicator?

Enjoy!