Simulating 2025 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals for 2025 begin this weekend!  The schedule is slightly less compressed this year being played in five instead of four weekends, but still more compressed than past years where it was seven weekends.

This weekend has four events, 18 & Over 2.5W and 5.0 in Scottsdale, 3.5 in Surprise, and 4.0 in San Diego.

I've been doing simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

Because of the fairly compressed schedule, I likely won't have the time to do previews/simulations of all events, but will try to do a few.  Let me know which you'd like to see!

Like I did last year, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on played averages.  Contact me if you want to learn more.

On to the projections from the simulation, first up, the 18 & Over 4.0 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 11%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 1.0%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 92% / 4
Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.16 / 3.96
Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.11 / 4.03
Favorites: Eastern, Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Texas
Contenders: Florida, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Southern

Have a chance: Middle States, Midwest, SoCal

The simulation likes the top team a lot due to an easy schedule but still just 38% chance of 4-0.  But then there is a group of four teams with a 33% to 60% chance of making the semis, and five more with a better than 12% chance.  Overall five teams have a most likely record of 3-1 and then eight are at 2-2, so a competitive event it appears so court records and the tie-breakers will be important.

What do you think?

Will it rain on the first weekend of 2025 USTA League Nationals?

2025 USTA League Nationals is starting in a few days, and with that we need to do our weather checks.

Several events are in the greater Phoenix area (Surprise and Scottsdale), and the current forecast calls for showers and a heavy thunderstorm on both Friday and Saturday.  That sounds ominous, but I'd think the courts should dry quickly so hopefully they get all the matches in without having to alter the format.

The other site this weekend is San Diego, and there is a chance of a shower Saturday morning, otherwise sunny and pleasant, so I'd think everything will be fine there.

Stay away rain!

2025 USTA League Nationals begin in three days

USTA League Nationals season for 2025 is upon us with a full seven events will being played this coming weekend, October 10-12.  All of Nationals will occur over the next five weeks, which is one more than in 2024, but still two fewer than in 2023.

Scottsdale, Surprise, and San Diego will all be hosting events this weekend with Orlando joining the fun the last two weekends of Nationals.

I will try to get some of my previews/predictions done each weekend, but with this fairly compressed format and 6-7 events a weekend, I may not get to all of them.  Please leave a comment to vote for which events you'd like to see previews for.

Good luck to all the teams competing the next five weekends!

What does a USTA League Nationals Unflighted Round-Robin Schedule Look? - 18 & Over 4.0 Men

USTA League Nationals are just weeks away now and match schedules have been published, so I've started looking at schedules to see what they look like and what teams have stronger/weaker schedules.

Note, if you need a refresher on how Nationals works, read this.

The schedule is important because of the format used where all the teams are in one "flight" where everyone plays four random opponents.  As you can probably imagine, this opens the door for wildly uneven schedules.  My simulations factor in actual schedules, and one way to look at this visually is with a diagram that shows who plays who.

A popular event that many onlookers care about is the 18 & Over 4.0 men's event.  Here is what that schedule looks like.

You can see that there are some groups of teams that are closely connected, but others that are very sparsely connected.

For example, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Hawaii all play two to three of each other.  And similar for Missouri Valley, Middle States, SoCal, and Caribbean.

If you look at sections that are traditional powers, it appear Texas has a tough schedule having to play SoCal, Intermountain, Florida, and PNW.  Middle States has to play Florida, NorCal, SoCal, and Missouri Valley, so theirs is not easy either.  And Florida has Eastern, Middle States, Texas, and New England.

Southern perhaps has an easier schedule with Hawaii, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and PNW, but I'll be honest, this case of this schedules looks as balanced as you might hope.

What do you think?  Is this way of doing schedules fair?  Who got a hard or easy schedule?

And what other events/levels do you want to see the diagram for?

2025 USTA League Nationals match schedules are out!

For those of you that are going to Nationals or like to follow what happens there, today is a big day as we march towards the events actually starting.  The match schedules are available!

The last Sectionals for 18 & Over and 40 & Over wrapped up this past weekend, so all the teams are falling into place now and presumably what sections are sending teams to each event is now known, so match schedules can be created.

As a reminder, the event schedules were published awhile back that show when and where each event is.

The main Nationals page has links for each event, and from those pages are links to the match schedules.  But for your convenience, here are those links for each event.

18 & Over

2.5 Women - A full 17 teams

3.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

3.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.5 Men and Women - A full 1716 men's teams, Caribbean missing, and 16 women's teams, Northern missing

5.0 Men and Women - 16 men's teams, Caribbean missing, and just 12 women's teams

40 & Over

3.0 Men and Women - 16 men's teams, Northern missing, and a full 17 women's teams

3.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.0 Men and Women - A full 17 men's and women's teams

4.5 Men and Women - A full 17 men's teams, and 16 women's teams, Caribbean missing

One must always have the caveat that these are subject to change, either to correct errors, or if a section ends up not sending a team the schedule will have to be juggled.  But we have a starting point at least now and captains can begin scouting opponents and planning strategy.

If you are a captain or player headed to Nationals and are looking for information and assistance scouting and planning, contact me or browse this blog as I typically offer a bunch of information about Nationals leading up to the event based on my experience going a few times and helping many teams navigate Nationals every year.

Enjoy!

Update: Some schedules were updated and changes made above.

Yep, it happened again, yet another undefeated team sent home at Southern California Sectionals

I'm growing tired of having to write these blog posts, but until SoCal USTA fixes their format and it stops happening, I'll keep pointing it out.

What is "it" you ask?

Southern California chooses to use the unflighted round-robin format for their Sectionals, at least for some divisions and levels, but does so with too many teams and not enough matches, leading to the possibility that more than four teams go undefeated and one (or more) of them get left out of making the semi-finals.

It has happened before in SoCal, just two months ago at 40 & Over Sectionals, and last year as well.  And this weekend it happened for the 18 & Over 3.5 women with 18 teams in the flight and each team playing just three matches.  That is a recipe for disaster and sure enough, there are five 3-0 teams.

I feel bad for SD WD LLW 3.5 Mtn View/ Jackie Saenz as they won their three matches, but it wasn't enough.  Now, they won each one 3-2 and so had the least impressive individual court record and that is the first tie-breaker in this case, and hopefully they knew going in winning 3-2 three times might not be enough, but that is still tough to swallow.

SoCal players, why do you stand for this?  Are you giving your section leaders your thoughts?  Or are you ok with it as is?

Note: I took a look and it appears that there was a greater than 6% chance there would be six 3-0 teams, and over a 23% chance of five 3-0 teams.

Are some districts/states not sending teams to USTA League Southern Sectionals?

It is that time of year when Sectionals are being played across the country.  Sectionals is where teams from the various districts in a section all come together to play to see who will win and represent the section at Nationals.

Not all districts send teams to Sectionals at every gender and level as some areas/district just don't have critical mass for enough teams at every gender and level.  But the main levels are generally represented by each district.

In the Southern section there are 11 districts and these align with 11 states, those being Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.  Thus a full flight would be 11 teams representing each state.

In taking a look at some flights, it appears not all states are represented, and not just at the genders/levels on the fringes.

At the 18 & Over Southern Sectionals, ignoring the 2.5 and 5.0 levels where it is common for some states to be absent:

• 3.0 women - Only 6 teams listed, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina are missing
• 3.0 men - Only 8 teams listed, North Carolina is missing
• 3.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Georgia is missing
• 3.5 men - Only 6 teams listed, Alabama, Kentucky, and South Carolina are missing
• 4.0 women - All states listed
• 4.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee are missing
• 4.5 women - Only 8 teams listed, Alabama missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams listed, Mississippi missing

That is only one gender/level where all 9 states are there!  And three where three teams are missing!  So this isn't just a state missing here or there.  And some states are missing that are considered hot beds of tennis.

Note that the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are taking place this weekend so those teams are certainly set, while the 3.5 and 4.5 levels are next weekend, and I believe the deadline for entry has past so I doubt any teams are going to be added, but perhaps TennisLink is just not up to date and more teams will be there for 3.5 and 4.5.

The 40 & Over Southern Sectionals is also going on this weekend and next weekend:

• 3.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Mississippi, not sure why
• 3.0 men - Only 6 teams listed, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina missing
• 3.5 women - 10 teams are listed!  They are sending two from Alabama
• 3.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Alabama missing
• 4.0 women - 10 teams are listed!  Georgia gets two at this level
• 4.0 men - All states are listed
• 4.5 women - Only 6 teams are listed, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina missing
• 4.5 men - Only 8 teams are listed, Kentucky is missing

Interestingly, this is not quite as bad as 18 & Over with four flights having full representation, and for some reason the Section has elected to have wildcards and 10 teams for the 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0 women.

One would actually think there are more teams and players at 18 & Over compared to 40 & Over, so there would be less chance of states skipping out.

Note that at 40 & Over the 3.0 and 4.0 levels are next weekend while the 3.5 and 4.5 are this weekend.  So they are staggered from 18 & Over so if players were on teams going to both, they would be able to.

So why are some states not sending teams?  And why is 18 & Over less represented than 40 & Over?

I can think of a few reasons, so I'll throw them out here, but I'd love to hear from folks in Southern if they know what is going on.

Going to Sectionals is a sizable commitment from a time and money perspective and perhaps some aren't willing to take it on.  This can especially be the case in Southern where depending on where the event is held, there can be a bunch of travel.

This year 18 & Over is being held in Mobile, AL on the back to back weekends while 40 & Over is in Rome, GA.  There is no perfect location for all states, but these are reasonably central locations and have been used on a regular basis so aren't new.  And the states skipping some events are not far from these locations at all, so it can't be just this reason.

Players could be on teams qualified for both 18 & Over and 40 & Over and are just picking one to attend.  I haven't done analysis of this, but I don't think the schedule is significantly different from prior years so if this were the reason, we would expect to have seen it in the past.

Teams could feel they have no shot at winning, perhaps due to knowledge or history of super teams from some states, and so don't want to go knowing they are likely to lose.  While this is possible, history tells us that super teams have come from nearly all of the states in Southern including some of those skipping events this year.

Are there other reasons?  Those from Southern, what is the inside scoop on what is going on?

But even if any of the above reasons are true and the States winner from some states opts out, why wouldn't the state send the runner up from States so they are represented?  I imagine in some cases if the winner opts out late and the members of the runner up have already made other plans, the runner up may also opt out.  But it still seems odd for so many teams to be missing.

FWIW, last year there were some events with just 8 teams, but only one with less than that and that was the 18 & Over 4.5 women, compared to a full five with just six teams this year.  So this year definitely has more teams missing.

What do you think?  Why is this happening this year?