I don't recommend using my ratings for predictions early in the year, there simply isn't enough data from one week to have much confidence in the predictions, but the predictions for week 2 are now on the site. And while the confidence in the picks may not be high, the computer did go 24-16 against the spread and 31-9 picking winners in week 1.
There are no games between top-25 teams, so let's look at a few interesting inter-conference games.
Computer #50 Washington visits #3 LSU and the computer doesn't expect anything close (LSU by 20), but it will be interesting to see if LSU tries to make a statement as well as if the Huskies defense has improved after giving up 67 to Baylor last year.
The Pac-12 gets to host a big-name opponent as #19 Wisconsin visits #77 Oregon State. This shouldn't be terribly close (Wisconsin by 10) but after Wisconsin's narrow win vs Northern Iowa, it should tell us something about Wisconsin's hopes in their conference.
And I'm not being a Pac-12 homer, they just have some of the interesting games this weekend, but the Pac-12 hosts another big-name opponent as #8 Nebraska visits #44 UCLA. UCLA looked good in beating Rice and moved up in the ratings, but Nebraska looked great too. This game could tell us which team really has improved from last year and which was just a good showing against a weak opponent. The computer likes Nebraska by 7.
The hopes of some early season undefeated buzz for #38 Miami-FL and #21 K-State will be determined as the Hurricanes go on the road. The computer likes K-State by 7.
Also, in some early intra-conference action, #29 Missouri hosts #17 Georgia in their inaugural SEC game. The computer has this as a virtual pick'em game (Georgia by 0.2) and it could be one of the weekends most competitive games.
And in the other inaugural SEC game, #31 Florida visits #14 Texas A&M. Florida handled Bowling Green, but not impressively, while the Aggies have yet to play. Can they make a statement in their first game in the SEC? The computer likes them by more than 8.
Enjoy the games.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Monday, September 3, 2012
College Football Week 1 Projections - Two Undefeated Teams, Alabama and Oklahoma State
The projected records for the regular season are now available.
There are two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated now, Alabama and Oklahoma State. Alabama impressed and with LSU not being as impressive and being their toughest test, they are now projected to be undefeated and at 74% an odds on favorite to do so. Oklahoma State has a great shot as well at 48%
Three teams, Ohio U, Oregon, and LSU, are projected to have just one loss, Ohio U having the best chance at going undefeated at 39%.
It is still very early, with just1 game played, projections are anything but precise but it is still fun to follow.
The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.
There are two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated now, Alabama and Oklahoma State. Alabama impressed and with LSU not being as impressive and being their toughest test, they are now projected to be undefeated and at 74% an odds on favorite to do so. Oklahoma State has a great shot as well at 48%
Three teams, Ohio U, Oregon, and LSU, are projected to have just one loss, Ohio U having the best chance at going undefeated at 39%.
It is still very early, with just1 game played, projections are anything but precise but it is still fun to follow.
The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Alabama | 12-0 | 74.1 | 0.0 | 24.4 |
| Oklahoma St | 12-0 | 48.1 | 0.0 | 37.9 |
| Ohio U. | 11-1 | 40.9 | 39.1 | 16.4 |
| Oregon | 11-1 | 45.2 | 30.2 | 20.2 |
| LSU | 11-1 | 39.8 | 7.9 | 36.7 |
| Boise St | 10-2 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 14.7 |
| Nebraska | 10-2 | 33.5 | 25.8 | 22.4 |
| Michigan St | 10-2 | 34.8 | 24.0 | 24.5 |
| Nevada | 10-2 | 33.4 | 23.5 | 24.1 |
| Florida St | 10-2 | 32.1 | 21.0 | 25.9 |
College Football Week 1 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama clear #1
This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.
Alabama remains #1 after their convincing win, and Oklahoma State makes a big move up after their 84-0 win but is still over 2 ratings points behind. LSU falls after their closer than expected win but is still well ahead of Oregon. Baylor makes a big move up to #5 and Boise State, even though they lost and lose ratings points, stays at #6. They are able to do this as Arkansas fell over 5 ratings points to #11 and no team other than Baylor was able to move ahead.
It is still very early, with just one game played we really know very little about the teams yet, but it is interesting to see some of the initial moves and indications.
The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.
Alabama remains #1 after their convincing win, and Oklahoma State makes a big move up after their 84-0 win but is still over 2 ratings points behind. LSU falls after their closer than expected win but is still well ahead of Oregon. Baylor makes a big move up to #5 and Boise State, even though they lost and lose ratings points, stays at #6. They are able to do this as Arkansas fell over 5 ratings points to #11 and no team other than Baylor was able to move ahead.
It is still very early, with just one game played we really know very little about the teams yet, but it is interesting to see some of the initial moves and indications.
The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 96.919 | 1-0 | 78.019 | +0, +0.773 |
| 2 | Oklahoma St | 94.672 | 1-0 | 17.827 | +1, +7.203 |
| 3 | LSU | 87.889 | 1-0 | 59.455 | -1, -6.107 |
| 4 | Oregon | 84.740 | 1-0 | 63.875 | +0, -0.815 |
| 5 | Baylor | 82.338 | 1-0 | 62.327 | +9, +3.331 |
| 6 | Boise St | 81.658 | 0-1 | 83.246 | +0, -2.425 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 81.612 | 1-0 | 65.720 | +0, -1.788 |
| 8 | Nebraska | 81.304 | 1-0 | 66.001 | +17, +6.424 |
| 9 | Southern Cal | 80.987 | 1-0 | 57.949 | +2, +1.377 |
| 10 | South Carolina | 80.803 | 1-0 | 76.914 | +0, +0.112 |
| 11 | Arkansas | 80.323 | 1-0 | 53.950 | -6, -5.117 |
| 12 | Michigan St | 80.246 | 1-0 | 78.658 | +7, +2.425 |
| 13 | Notre Dame | 79.783 | 1-0 | 62.628 | +10, +4.195 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 79.137 | 0-0 | 0.000 | -1, +0.000 |
| 15 | Michigan | 78.019 | 0-1 | 96.919 | +0, -0.773 |
| 16 | TCU | 77.951 | 0-0 | 0.000 | +2, -0.000 |
| 17 | Georgia | 77.570 | 1-0 | 56.027 | -5, -1.891 |
| 18 | West Virginia | 77.556 | 1-0 | 57.477 | +9, +3.275 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 77.463 | 1-0 | 67.946 | -10, -4.543 |
| 20 | Texas | 77.313 | 1-0 | 59.652 | +1, +0.972 |
| 21 | Kansas St | 76.813 | 1-0 | 51.405 | -1, -0.100 |
| 22 | Florida St | 76.596 | 1-0 | 47.946 | +0, +0.493 |
| 23 | Tennessee | 76.477 | 1-0 | 66.262 | +12, +3.806 |
| 24 | Stanford | 76.032 | 1-0 | 66.556 | -16, -6.515 |
| 25 | Ohio State | 75.457 | 1-0 | 55.232 | +18, +4.443 |
Ways to follow the Schmidt Computer
It is the beginning of the football season, so for any new readers of this blog, here is a summary of all the ways to follow the Schmidt Computer.
Obviously, you can read this blog. It is the primary place that regular postings and various commentary on the ratings, predictions, projections, and the BCS will appear. So point your RSS reader here. And if you want to join the dialog, feel free to leave comments and I'll respond to as much as I can.
The ratings themselves are posted on the web-site. You can jump directly to College or the NFL and see both the current and past ratings, projections, and predictions there.
You can also follow @computerratings on Twitter. It is a good way to be notified about new postings on the blog, but you'll also see other commentary and discussions, and it is the easiest way to ask questions or join the dialog.
If you prefer Google+, check out the Schmidt Computer Ratings page there.
Obviously, you can read this blog. It is the primary place that regular postings and various commentary on the ratings, predictions, projections, and the BCS will appear. So point your RSS reader here. And if you want to join the dialog, feel free to leave comments and I'll respond to as much as I can.
The ratings themselves are posted on the web-site. You can jump directly to College or the NFL and see both the current and past ratings, projections, and predictions there.
You can also follow @computerratings on Twitter. It is a good way to be notified about new postings on the blog, but you'll also see other commentary and discussions, and it is the easiest way to ask questions or join the dialog.
If you prefer Google+, check out the Schmidt Computer Ratings page there.
Early look at potential BCS busters - Ohio U., Boise State, Nevada top the list
A four team playoff is on the horizon for College Football, but we still have the BCS as we know it this year and with it, we have a way for the "little guys" to make it to a big game. Chris Dufresne wrote a story a month ago suggesting it would be a down year for the BCS busters, so let's take a look at how some of the candidates look after one week.
As a preface, clearly one can only tell so much after just one game, but since in most cases these candidate teams need an undefeated season, or at worst an early close loss to a very good team, we can probably tell more than you think.
Current projections by my computer (will be posted tonight after the last game of week 1) have several teams forecast to have good records. Let's take a look at the notable ones.
Ohio University leads the way with a 48% chance of an 11-1 record and they actually have a good shot at an undefeated season at 39%. Now, this is based on their win over Penn State, and we don't know how strong Penn State really is, but more importantly, a very weak schedule. Their highest ranked remaining opponent is #76 Kent State. So, Ohio could very well finish with an undefeated or one loss record, but given their schedule only an undefeated record would even get them in the conversation, and then they'd need a lot of help.
Boise State is next with a 41% chance of a 10-2 record but also a 41% chance of an 11-1 record. In their case, their loss is on the road to a good Michigan State team, and if Michigan State turns out to be very good, this loss won't look so bad. While their schedule after MSU isn't the greatest, it isn't too bad with BYU, Nevada, and Southern Miss (#27, #34, #57 right now) and Fresno State is a good team in many years (#71 right now). But they certainly can't afford another loss and need MSU to be strong and perhaps some help from other teams.
Nevada just started their year with an upset of Cal on the road and is projected with a 33% chance of a 10-2 record and a 24% chance of an 11-1 record. Undefeated? Just 6%. And they'd probably need undefeated to be considered given their schedule. Now, the good news for them is they do play Boise State (current #5) and get them at home, and also get South Florida (#42) at home. If both of those teams play well, that will beef up their schedule strength and wins over them would be quality wins. Again, they probably still need no losses.
Beyond that, there aren't many candidates. Northern Illinois is project at 9-3 with a 31% chance of 10-2, but that won't get it done. Last year's darlings, Houston and Southern Miss have already lost and are projected at 8-4 and 6-6 respectively.
Now, my computer is not used by the BCS (their loss :)) but it is interesting to see where these teams rate and how they project out. More importantly, 2/3 of the BCS are the polls and these teams will likely get very little support there. So yes, as Chris Dufresne wrote, it is very unlikely that we'll have a BCS buster this year.
What do you think? Leave a comment!
As a preface, clearly one can only tell so much after just one game, but since in most cases these candidate teams need an undefeated season, or at worst an early close loss to a very good team, we can probably tell more than you think.
Current projections by my computer (will be posted tonight after the last game of week 1) have several teams forecast to have good records. Let's take a look at the notable ones.
Ohio University leads the way with a 48% chance of an 11-1 record and they actually have a good shot at an undefeated season at 39%. Now, this is based on their win over Penn State, and we don't know how strong Penn State really is, but more importantly, a very weak schedule. Their highest ranked remaining opponent is #76 Kent State. So, Ohio could very well finish with an undefeated or one loss record, but given their schedule only an undefeated record would even get them in the conversation, and then they'd need a lot of help.
Boise State is next with a 41% chance of a 10-2 record but also a 41% chance of an 11-1 record. In their case, their loss is on the road to a good Michigan State team, and if Michigan State turns out to be very good, this loss won't look so bad. While their schedule after MSU isn't the greatest, it isn't too bad with BYU, Nevada, and Southern Miss (#27, #34, #57 right now) and Fresno State is a good team in many years (#71 right now). But they certainly can't afford another loss and need MSU to be strong and perhaps some help from other teams.
Nevada just started their year with an upset of Cal on the road and is projected with a 33% chance of a 10-2 record and a 24% chance of an 11-1 record. Undefeated? Just 6%. And they'd probably need undefeated to be considered given their schedule. Now, the good news for them is they do play Boise State (current #5) and get them at home, and also get South Florida (#42) at home. If both of those teams play well, that will beef up their schedule strength and wins over them would be quality wins. Again, they probably still need no losses.
Beyond that, there aren't many candidates. Northern Illinois is project at 9-3 with a 31% chance of 10-2, but that won't get it done. Last year's darlings, Houston and Southern Miss have already lost and are projected at 8-4 and 6-6 respectively.
Now, my computer is not used by the BCS (their loss :)) but it is interesting to see where these teams rate and how they project out. More importantly, 2/3 of the BCS are the polls and these teams will likely get very little support there. So yes, as Chris Dufresne wrote, it is very unlikely that we'll have a BCS buster this year.
What do you think? Leave a comment!
Sunday, September 2, 2012
The 2012/13 NFL Season is Upon Us
The NFL season starts in just a few days with the Cowboys visiting the Giants on Wednesday. As such, the web-site has been updated with pre-season ratings and season projections. Look for picks for week 1 to show up soon. And see the earlier discussion of the season projections.
Now, since my rating system is based solely on results, the pre-season ratings are simply the end of season ratings from last year. Thus, they can't reflect personnel or other changes that will likely affect a teams performance. Never the less, it can be interesting to look at.
Stay tuned for more.
Now, since my rating system is based solely on results, the pre-season ratings are simply the end of season ratings from last year. Thus, they can't reflect personnel or other changes that will likely affect a teams performance. Never the less, it can be interesting to look at.
Stay tuned for more.
Preliminary Week 1 College Football Ratings
I will be computing the week 1 ratings after the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game tomorrow, but here is the preliminary top-50 based on games played through yesterday. Standard caveats apply, these ratings are heavily influenced by last years rating and a single game this year can only tell so much, but it is still interesting to look at where teams fall and what has changed.
Alabama remains #1 after their comfortable win over Michigan. The surprise is Oklahoma State isn't that far behind at their 84-0 win. This result will carry very little weight after they play more meaningful games, so they'll need to back that result up to stay there.
LSU is #3 but quite a ways back, dropping quite a few points after beating North Texas 41-14. Oregon is #4 and Boise State, even though they lost, is up to #5. How can Boise State lose and move up? Well, their rating actually went down nearly 2.5 points, but they benefited from Arkansas playing an FCS team and dropping 5 ratings points.
A big mover this week was Nebraska, up 18 spots and over 6 ratings points to #7 after easily handling a Southern Miss that was very good last year. Now, Southern Miss may not be as good as last year, but until they play other games that show that, Nebraska is getting credit for a very good win.
Michigan State moved up 8 spots to #11 after a quality win over Boise State. However, if Boise State proves to be a notch below what they've been in the past, a close win at home, while still a good win, won't be quite as impressive.
Notre Dame is up 11 spots to #12 after a 50-10 drubbing of a decent Navy team. This may be an indication that things are looking up for the Irish.
Several other bigger name teams made moves into the top-30 after down years last year including Tennessee, Ohio State, Clemson, and BYU.
Look for the full ratings Monday night, and more updates as the games are played.
Alabama remains #1 after their comfortable win over Michigan. The surprise is Oklahoma State isn't that far behind at their 84-0 win. This result will carry very little weight after they play more meaningful games, so they'll need to back that result up to stay there.
LSU is #3 but quite a ways back, dropping quite a few points after beating North Texas 41-14. Oregon is #4 and Boise State, even though they lost, is up to #5. How can Boise State lose and move up? Well, their rating actually went down nearly 2.5 points, but they benefited from Arkansas playing an FCS team and dropping 5 ratings points.
A big mover this week was Nebraska, up 18 spots and over 6 ratings points to #7 after easily handling a Southern Miss that was very good last year. Now, Southern Miss may not be as good as last year, but until they play other games that show that, Nebraska is getting credit for a very good win.
Michigan State moved up 8 spots to #11 after a quality win over Boise State. However, if Boise State proves to be a notch below what they've been in the past, a close win at home, while still a good win, won't be quite as impressive.
Notre Dame is up 11 spots to #12 after a 50-10 drubbing of a decent Navy team. This may be an indication that things are looking up for the Irish.
Several other bigger name teams made moves into the top-30 after down years last year including Tennessee, Ohio State, Clemson, and BYU.
Look for the full ratings Monday night, and more updates as the games are played.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 96.919 | 1-0 | 78.019 | +0, +0.773 |
| 2 | Oklahoma St | 94.672 | 1-0 | 17.827 | +1, +7.203 |
| 3 | LSU | 87.889 | 1-0 | 59.455 | -1, -6.107 |
| 4 | Oregon | 84.740 | 1-0 | 63.875 | +0, -0.815 |
| 5 | Boise St | 81.658 | 0-1 | 83.246 | +1, -2.425 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 81.612 | 1-0 | 65.720 | +1, -1.788 |
| 7 | Nebraska | 81.304 | 1-0 | 66.001 | +18, +6.424 |
| 8 | Southern Cal | 80.987 | 1-0 | 57.949 | +3, +1.377 |
| 9 | South Carolina | 80.803 | 1-0 | 76.914 | +1, +0.112 |
| 10 | Arkansas | 80.323 | 1-0 | 53.950 | -5, -5.117 |
| 11 | Michigan St | 80.246 | 1-0 | 78.658 | +8, +2.425 |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 79.783 | 1-0 | 62.628 | +11, +4.195 |
| 13 | Texas A&M | 79.137 | 0-0 | 0.000 | +0, +0.000 |
| 14 | Baylor | 79.007 | 0-0 | 0.000 | +0, +0.000 |
| 15 | Michigan | 78.019 | 0-1 | 96.919 | +0, -0.773 |
| 16 | TCU | 77.951 | 0-0 | 0.000 | +2, -0.000 |
| 17 | Georgia | 77.570 | 1-0 | 56.027 | -5, -1.891 |
| 18 | West Virginia | 77.556 | 1-0 | 57.477 | +9, +3.275 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 77.463 | 1-0 | 67.946 | -10, -4.543 |
| 20 | Texas | 77.313 | 1-0 | 59.652 | +1, +0.972 |
| 21 | Kansas St | 76.813 | 1-0 | 51.405 | -1, -0.100 |
| 22 | Florida St | 76.596 | 1-0 | 47.946 | +0, +0.493 |
| 23 | Tennessee | 76.477 | 1-0 | 66.262 | +12, +3.806 |
| 24 | Stanford | 76.032 | 1-0 | 66.556 | -16, -6.515 |
| 25 | Ohio State | 75.457 | 1-0 | 55.232 | +18, +4.443 |
| 26 | Clemson | 75.364 | 1-0 | 71.145 | +11, +2.797 |
| 27 | Brigham Young | 74.631 | 1-0 | 57.237 | +13, +2.863 |
| 28 | Iowa St | 74.457 | 1-0 | 64.628 | +26, +5.200 |
| 29 | Missouri | 74.326 | 1-0 | 42.009 | -12, -3.674 |
| 30 | Vanderbilt | 73.914 | 0-1 | 77.803 | -1, -0.112 |
| 31 | Florida | 73.727 | 1-0 | 60.181 | -3, -0.550 |
| 32 | Arizona St | 73.719 | 1-0 | 48.885 | +10, +2.073 |
| 33 | Virginia Tech | 73.548 | 0-0 | 0.000 | -2, -0.000 |
| 34 | Nevada | 73.538 | 1-0 | 70.703 | +18, +4.189 |
| 35 | Mississippi St | 73.375 | 1-0 | 46.009 | -9, -0.910 |
| 36 | Cincinnati | 73.317 | 0-0 | 0.000 | -4, +0.000 |
| 37 | Ohio U. | 73.277 | 1-0 | 69.506 | +25, +6.267 |
| 38 | Miami FL | 72.554 | 1-0 | 65.444 | +9, +1.902 |
| 39 | Louisiana Tech | 71.942 | 0-0 | 0.000 | -1, +0.000 |
| 40 | Illinois | 71.751 | 1-0 | 59.507 | +23, +4.784 |
| 41 | North Carolina | 71.387 | 1-0 | 45.442 | +10, +1.805 |
| 42 | South Florida | 71.245 | 1-0 | 54.753 | +15, +2.552 |
| 43 | UCLA | 71.233 | 1-0 | 59.356 | +23, +4.531 |
| 44 | Iowa | 71.179 | 1-0 | 70.481 | +0, +0.305 |
| 45 | Auburn | 71.145 | 0-1 | 75.364 | -15, -2.797 |
| 46 | Utah St | 70.841 | 1-0 | 53.026 | +22, +4.587 |
| 47 | Northern Illinois | 70.481 | 0-1 | 71.179 | -2, -0.305 |
| 48 | Washington | 70.469 | 1-0 | 62.696 | +7, +1.235 |
| 49 | Georgia Tech | 69.587 | 0-0 | 0.000 | +1, -0.000 |
| 50 | San Jose St | 69.556 | 0-1 | 79.032 | +34, +6.515 |
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