College Football Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The rankings in the top-10 moved around a bit but generally were fairly stable.

Alabama stays #1 improving their rating and LSU improves theirs two and stays #2 although the teams are in a virtual tie right now and well ahead of new #3 Boise State.  BSU's schedule is generally weak the rest of the year with only 1 team (TCU) with a rating about BSU's current schedule strength so their rating could begin to leak a bit.

LSU and BSU moved ahead of Wisconsin even though the Badgers were idle.  This is largely because Wisconsin's only meaningful game this year was against Nebraska, and Nebraska proved to be a little weaker than expected against Ohio State, and Nebraska prior opponent Wyoming got drubbed 63-19 by Utah State, so both Nebraska (down 4 spots) and Wisconsin were hurt.  Wisconsin will have plenty of opportunity to improve this as they play Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan State still, but 2 of those aren't until the end of the season so their impact may depend on how those teams do the rest of the season too.

Oklahoma's impressive win over Texas boosts their rating over 2 points and their ranking up to #5.  They too will have an opportunity to state their case at the end of the year as they face K-State, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Oklahoma State in consecutive games to end the regular season.

Thirteen teams remain undefeated, but 5 will be lost due to head to head matchups.  Look for the projections shortly to see who is projected to finish the regular season undefeated.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	97.721	6-0	70.058	+0, +2.096
2	LSU	97.422	6-0	71.687	+1, +3.333
3	Boise St	91.358	5-0	72.747	+1, +2.312
4	Wisconsin	90.614	5-0	63.332	-2, -4.299
5	Oklahoma	89.220	5-0	70.891	+2, +2.444
6	Oregon	88.269	4-1	69.277	-1, +1.031
7	Oklahoma St	86.554	5-0	68.920	+1, +1.067
8	Stanford	85.854	5-0	63.870	-2, -1.178
9	Arkansas	84.524	5-1	66.446	+8, +6.116
10	Michigan	84.511	6-0	64.883	-1, -0.134
11	Texas A&M	83.422	3-2	74.263	+1, +2.642
12	Notre Dame	81.012	4-2	73.055	-1, -0.065
13	Clemson	80.969	6-0	65.449	-3, -1.066
14	Arizona St	80.916	5-1	66.654	+6, +3.265
15	West Virginia	80.887	5-1	66.965	+6, +3.544
16	Georgia	80.107	4-2	73.056	+6, +3.124
17	Florida	79.665	4-2	71.621	-4, -0.988
18	Nebraska	78.073	5-1	69.509	-4, -2.338
19	Penn State	78.067	5-1	69.178	+12, +3.707
20	Rutgers	78.064	4-1	63.399	+20, +5.110
21	Baylor	77.956	4-1	64.429	+20, +5.011
22	Texas	77.488	4-1	70.669	-7, -1.632
23	TCU	77.450	4-2	67.082	+9, +3.254
24	South Carolina	76.648	5-1	66.110	+1, +0.551
25	Georgia Tech	76.603	6-0	61.149	-6, -1.320

NFL projected records after week 4

With a quarter of the season complete, the projected playoff picture is starting to become more consistent week to week.  See the full list of projections here.

Green Bay remains the top overall team, projected at 15-1 with New Orleans close behind at 14-2.  The Saints actually have a very good chance (36.4%) at 15-1 as well.  Surprises Detroit and San Francisco would be in the playoffs at 12-4 with Washington winning the NFC East at 11-5 and Dallas getting in the playoffs at 10-6.  Presently only Chicago would be close on Dallas' heels for the last spot.  These are the same teams as projected last week, just Dallas and Washington swapping positions.

New England is projected to lead the AFC at 14-2 with Houston and Baltimore vying for the #2 seed at 12-4.  It may take an 11-5 record to get into the AFC playoffs with surprise Oakland, Tennessee, and Buffalo all at that record.  Another surprise, Cincinnati would be a game back.  These are also the same teams as last week.

What about some of the early season favorites?

The Jets are 2-2 and with the Patriots twice, Buffalo twice, plus 3 more from the NFC East, 9-7 is their projected record.

The Giants are 3-1 but play Buffalo, New England, and the Jets, plus Dallas twice and Washington another time, plus the 49ers, Packers, and Saints.  Most likely record for them is just 8-8.

Pittsburgh is 2-2 and has Tennessee, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati twice, and the 49ers as tough games on the schedule leading to an 8-8 record being most likely.

San Diego is 3-1 but has the Jets, Packers, Oakland twice, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit as tough games leading to 6-10 being most likely.

And likely the biggest disappointment, the Eagles are 1-3 and have Washington and Dallas twice, the Giants, Jets, Bears, Bills, and Patriots as tough games leading to 4-12 being most likely.

Team's performance can certainly change and improve or go downhill so the above projections can and most likely will change.  But the first quarter of the season has certainly set us up for some surprises.

Week 4 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 4 are now posted here.

Green Bay remains a confortable #1 stretching their lead over still #2 New England.  In fact, the top-5 remain the same from last week.

Changes start at #6 with Baltimore and Tennessee moving up at the expense of Houston and Oakland.

At the bottom of the list is St. Louis just behind Indianapolis.

The computer went a decent 9-7 against the spread and in the first week of best picks and locks went 3-0 and 1-0 respectively.  It also beat Vegas straight up going 12-4 vs 11-5.  See prediction performance here.

Week 5 College Football Conference Comparison

Pat Forde wrote a column on the strength of the SEC West vs SEC East which begged for some analysis from the computer and by and large it backs Pat up.

First, let's look at just the average ratings for the conferences.

Rank	Conference	Average	High	Low
1	SEC	76.599	95.634	59.832
2	Big-12	75.663	86.786	62.696
3	Pac-12	72.187	87.244	58.034
4	Big-Ten	72.122	94.927	55.073
5	Big-East	71.128	77.951	59.647
6	Independent	69.643	81.087	61.194
7	ACC	69.092	82.045	57.166
8	Mountain-West	66.828	89.054	49.049
9	WAC	63.508	72.076	57.740
10	MAC	62.567	73.427	48.076
11	C-USA	60.834	73.440	49.538
12	Sun-Belt	58.464	65.380	48.724

The SEC has a slim lead over the Big-12 with the Pac-12, Big-East, and Big-Ten in a group behind.  If we look at this same average for the SEC East and West we get:

Rank	Conference	Average	High	Low
1	SEC West	79.641	95.634	64.702
2	SEC East	73.556	80.662	59.832

A pretty big gap, but even the SEC East would be slightly above the Pac-12/Big-Ten/Big-East.

Another way of looking at conference strengths is to look at performance in non-conference games.  But one can't just look at records as some schools/conferences play a lot of FCS/I-AA teams or even weak FBS/I-A teams.  A better way is to group the games played by a conference and run them through the computer's algorithm.  Doing this yields:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Big-12	75.180	27-3	62.745
2	SEC	74.867	28-4	62.270
3	Big-East	70.684	23-11	63.453
4	Big-Ten	70.034	34-13	62.124
5	ACC	69.229	27-11	61.296
6	Independent	69.150	10-9	67.152
7	Pac-12	68.987	19-11	63.899
8	MAC	64.328	20-28	66.527
9	Mountain-West	64.303	18-13	63.141
10	WAC	63.991	9-21	66.711
11	C-USA	63.389	18-22	66.326
12	Sun-Belt	60.325	10-20	67.472
13	FCS/I-AA	55.135	6-83	70.896

Interestingly, the Big-12 comes out on top here narrowly over the SEC.  They have similar records and schedule strengths so it is very close.  They haven't gotten to these records playing the toughest schedules though as only the Big-Ten and ACC have weaker out of conference schedules.

College Football Week 5 Season Projections - 3 Undefeated Teams

And then there were 3 teams projected to finish undefeated.

Boise State and Alabama did nothing to diminish their chances and remain as projected undefeateds, but Wisconsin joins the group while South Florida and Oklahoma State fall out.  South Florida lost, and Oklahoma State had future opponent Texas improve dramatically this week resulting in 1 loss being projected for them.

While there are just 3 projected perfect seasons, and we know which 2 would get into the BCS Championship Game, 7 other teams have a decent shot at joining/replacing them.  LSU's one loss would be to Alabama so if they turn that around they would swap places.  Similarly Georgia Tech plays Clemson.  Stanford would not be an underdog in any game remaining, but does have Oregon to play.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State both have each other to play plus Texas and Michigan misses Wisconsin but does still have to get through Michigan State, Nebraska, and Illinois.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Boise St	12-0	97.4	0.0	2.6
Wisconsin	12-0	94.9	0.0	5.0
Alabama	12-0	77.4	0.0	22.5
LSU	11-1	74.7	21.1	4.1
Clemson	11-1	46.6	35.2	16.7
Stanford	11-1	43.5	32.9	19.1
Oklahoma St	11-1	41.7	22.8	27.1
Michigan	11-1	41.1	39.0	16.5
Oklahoma	11-1	37.3	14.8	31.7
Georgia Tech	11-1	34.3	12.4	33.7

College Football Week 5 Ratings and Rankings - New #1 Alabama

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  With several important games between top teams, there are some changes and favorites to make it to the BCS bowls are starting to show themselves.

With the computer's #1, #2, #3, #5, #7, #8, and #9 teams all winning in easy fashion, you might not think there would be a lot of changes, but indeed there are.  This is mostly due to who those wins were over and some impressive wins by teams outside the computer's top-10.

Alabama is the new #1 in large part due to their 38-10 drubbing of Florida, but also due to prior opponent Arkansas pulling the upset over Texas A&M, and other of their and Florida's prior opponents playing well.  This was enough to move them ahead of LSU who not only had a weak opponent but had  prior opponent Mississippi State lose by more than expected keeping them at about the same rating.  But the huge move in the top-10 is Wisconsin also jumping ahead of LSU with an enormous +10.5 ratings points jump after they manhandled Nebraska.

Boise State moves up a spot at Oregon's expense, but they and the rest of the top-10 are well back of the top-3 which are very close.  Stanford got dinged a bit by playing a weak UCLA squad and Oklahoma did their best to impress against Ball State, but playing a weak opponent is not the way to make a big move in the computer's eyes.

Another big mover joining the top-10 is Clemson.  With wins in consecutive weeks over the now #23, #27, and #36 teams, they are easily the highest ranked ACC team.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	95.634	5-0	68.352	+1, +3.925
2	Wisconsin	94.927	5-0	62.192	+6,+10.543
3	LSU	94.097	5-0	69.599	-2, +0.980
4	Boise St	89.054	4-0	72.031	+1, +2.233
5	Oregon	87.244	3-1	70.966	-1, +0.381
6	Stanford	87.040	4-0	65.589	-3, -0.976
7	Oklahoma	86.786	4-0	70.010	+0, +1.987
8	Oklahoma St	85.494	4-0	71.114	-2, -1.281
9	Michigan	84.659	5-0	64.447	+0, +2.237
10	Clemson	82.045	5-0	68.549	+14, +6.010
11	Notre Dame	81.087	3-2	75.345	+4, +1.572
12	Texas A&M	80.788	2-2	71.627	-1, -1.328
13	Florida	80.662	4-1	66.937	-1, +0.157
14	Nebraska	80.425	4-1	70.998	-1, +0.366
15	Texas	79.134	4-0	64.566	+18, +5.593
16	Tennessee	78.640	3-1	65.764	+7, +2.276
17	Arkansas	78.417	4-1	66.461	+15, +4.857
18	Pittsburgh	77.951	3-2	69.684	+23, +6.754
19	Georgia Tech	77.928	5-0	61.482	-1, -0.461
20	Arizona St	77.665	4-1	64.622	-6, -2.355
21	West Virginia	77.358	4-1	65.808	+5, +2.552
22	Georgia	76.993	3-2	70.772	+7, +2.425
23	Florida St	76.930	2-2	63.062	+7, +2.832
24	South Florida	76.417	4-1	64.906	-14, -6.001
25	South Carolina	76.106	4-1	68.593	-8, -2.702

College Football Week 5 Preview

Here are what the computer thinks of a few of the key games today.  And there are a bunch of good ones.

Last week, the featured games went 5-0 against the spread including picking the Oklahoma State upset.

Poll #14 Texas A&M and #18 Arkansas meet in Arlington in a preview of a future SEC game, and the computer likes its #11 A&M by 8.6 over its #32 Arkansas, a lot more than the 2.5 point line.  This is one of the stronger picks by the computer this week.

The ACC has a big game with poll #13 Clemson visiting #11 Virginia Tech.  The computer doesn't have them ranked as high, #24 and #19 respectively, but it should be a good game with Virginia Tech winning by around 5.  This is less than the 7.5 line so take Clemson plus the points.

In a rematch from a big upset last year, poll #17 Texas visits 3-0 Iowa State.  Iowa State won in Austin 28-21 last year, so Texas will be out to return the upset.  The computer has them #33 and #44 respectively and being at home for them likes Iowa State to pull the upset again, but in a virtual tie.  Take them plus the 9 points.

While Texas A&M and Arkansas is a preview of a future conference matchup, poll #8 Nebraska visiting #7 Wisconsin is the first game of a new conference matchup and could very well determine the BIG10 champion.  Vegas has Wisconsin by 10 which the computer thinks is too much, having its #8 Wisconsin winning by just 7.3 over its #13 Nebraska.  Take the road team plus the points.

And in the game that could be a significant factor in determining BCS bowls the SEC is in and perhaps the national champion, poll #3 Alabama visits #12 Florida.  The computer has about the same ranking at #2 and #12, but likes Alabama by a lot more than the 4 point line, picking them by 8.2.  If Florida does pull off the win, they'll definitely move up in the ratings.

Enjoy the games!