Monday, December 5, 2022

Analyzing 2022 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Who appeals and in what direction?

Next up in our analysis of 2022 USTA NTRP year-end ratings, we take a look at appeals.

We aren't even a week post ratings release, and not everyone that is going to try to appeal has done so so these stats could change, but many that want to appeal will do it right away so I think it is still worthwhile to take a look now.

First, my analysis shows that 2,633 player have successfully appealed, 1,476 of them down and 1,157 up.  For comparison, for 2021, 4,107 appealed down and 2,335 appealed up.

Where it gets more interesting is when splitting it out by gender.  Of the 1,476 appeals down, 632 of them were women and 844 were men.  That is a similar ratio to 2021, perhaps a bit more heavy towards men.  But for appeals up, it switches and women do it more with 953 women and just 204 men.  Again, this is a similar ratio to 2021.

So more women appeal up than down, and a lot more men appeal down than up.

But part of this may have to do with the levels players are at.  It is generally the case that lower rated players are more likely to appeal up and higher rated ones are more likely to appeal down.

Here are the appeals down and up for women using the appealed from level.

  • 2.5 - 0 / 670
  • 3.0 - 191 / 753
  • 3.5 - 449 / 390
  • 4.0 - 622 / 52
  • 4.5 - 411 / 2
  • 5.0 - 165 / 0
  • 5.5 - 18 / 0
And the men.
  • 2.5 - 0 / 71
  • 3.0 - 46 / 188
  • 3.5 - 473 / 148
  • 4.0 - 835 / 54
  • 4.5 - 626 / 7
  • 5.0 - 254 / 0
  • 5.5 - 17 / 0

We see that a lot of 2.5 and 3.0 women appeal up, and interestingly more 3.5s appeal down to 3.0 than up to 4.0.  At 4.0 and above there are very few appeals up and the majority are down.

The men also have more appeals up at 2.5 and 3.0 and that swaps at 3.5 and by a much larger ratio than the women with 3x appealing down vs the women vs just 15% more for the women.

What do you think?

4 comments:

  1. I wonder if it could be more of a thing where women want to be a higher rating more perhaps for "status" purposes? Whereas men for whatever reason seem to be more of the mindset to want to go down to win.
    SWIM has had some experience recruiting players, men and some women for mixed, and it does tend to seem a bit tougher to find women willing to start at a more humbling rating relative to how they perceive themselves compared to men.

    But not the biggest sample size either. Only a handful of years, but an observation nonetheless.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Guessing Southwest/Intermountain? Could be way off base though.

      Delete
    2. Only thing I could think of, too. But 2 different sections. Sounded like an area of a city or a specific team. Every section can recruit players, so I'm confused what he means.

      Delete