Will USTA League participation grow in 2022?

The USTA recently sent an e-mail out with the headline "Tennis is Surging!" and I couldn't help but take a look and comment on it.

The full story cites a few statistics to back up the headline, one being the Physical Activity Council's (PAC) participation report resulting from surveys performed that monitor more than 120 sports and activities, and according to this report, 22.6 million people took to the courts in 2021, up 4.5% from 2020.

The other statistic is one from the Tennis Industry Association (TIA) that shows racquet sales (units) were up 22.7% in 2021.  It is interesting that the 3.4 million units sold is not an all time high as it is noted that this is the most since 2010, which means it was higher then and we are just getting back to that level.

I don't know the methodology of the survey and how they arrive at the 22.6 million number, but don't doubt that more people have started playing tennis the past few years as tennis, an outdoor activity for many, became a reasonably safe sport as an alternative to other indoor activities during the pandemic.  I find it interesting though that the unit sales growth is five times the participation growth.  Why might this be?

First, I think it shows that surveys are not perfect and are just estimates or best guesses made from a sampling of a particular audience.  It is certainly possible that the survey underestimates the participation growth, and it is really greater than 4.5% and the unit sales is more indicative of the growth.  On the other hand, it is possible, and I'd say more likely, that the unit sales was spurred by existing players have more disposable income due to the curtailing of other activities and the government stimulus checks, and chose to upgrade their racquets earlier and/or more often than normal.  This type of behavior is good for tennis, but perhaps not indicative of participation growth.

The counter to this growth is the participation in USTA League the past few years.  The pandemic obviously wreaked havoc with league play, with Nationals and many local league canceled in 2020, and perhaps a slow recovery in early 2021.  Here is the chart I made for that post at the end of 2021.

We see the slow but steady decline over the years (and it is primarily with younger players if you look at the details), and dramatic drop in 2020 due to canceled leagues, and a recovery in 2021 but not nearly back to 2019 levels.

The question at hand is, will this general participation growth the PAC and TIA stats show result in the continued recovery and perhaps even growth of USTA League participation?

I certainly expect participation to increase over 2021 levels as more players return to the game.  But it is also possible that the forced time off resulted in some players finding other activities or avenues to playing tennis and may not come back to league play.  What will be interesting is if this growth in general tennis participation offsets that effect and the overall steady decline and we see growth over 2019 levels.  I'm hopeful it happens, and will start to do more analysis as we get farther in to 2022 and can look at the statistics.

What do you think of the growth numbers from the PAC and TIA?  What do you think will happen to league play in 2022?