USTA League play is already suspended in some areas, what are the chances 2021 leagues are played to completion and Nationals is played?

 2020 has been a strange year in many ways, including its impact on USTA League play.  Leagues were suspended in the Spring leading to many not resuming and Nationals being canceled.

Some areas did resume play over the Summer, at least with alternate/secondary leagues, and some areas begin 2021 season play with Early Start Leagues as they've always done taking advantage of play resuming in their respective sections, but some sections have never resume league play and with the rise of COVID-19 numbers, league play is being suspended once again in other areas.

All of this begs the question, what might happen in 2021?  Might leagues be suspended/canceled again?  If so, at what point are 2021 Nationals in jeopardy of being canceled?

One way to look at it is to look at when leagues are normally played across all the sections, and correspondingly what impact any suspensions or delays in play will have.  Using the 2019 league year as the benchmark, here is when matches were played by month for the 18 & Over division.

We see the bulk of the matches are played in March and later, but a good number are played in the first two months of the year as well as September thru December of the prior year, and even some played back in May and June thanks to Early Start Leagues in Georgia.

And for the 40 & Over division.

A similar story here, but March is the busiest month by far, and January and February are as busy as the Spring and early Summer months.  There is also some Early Start League activity in the last few months of the prior year but not as much as for 18 & Over.

What does this all mean?

The short story is that while the bulk of league play occurs March or later and may not be impacted by any continued or new suspension of play as we move into 2021, there is a fair amount of play in January and February, and there may be play from ESLs that have not started or finished as we move into 2021, that has been or will be impacted if play is suspended at the start of the year.

I'm sure sections and districts have some flexibility with scheduling and can absorb a month, or perhaps two months, of delay and still find a way to get league play complete, but you can see that if any possible suspension of play continues into March on top of that, it becomes more difficult to get all the matches in.

Now, as we know, restrictions regarding playing tennis and league play have not been consistent through the country.  Based on local COVID-19 statistics and capacity of the healthcare system to take on the sick, and how conservative the respective state governments are regarding playing it safe and shutting more down or for longer, some areas may not have any restrictions while others. may be restricted and unable to play for an extended period of time.  This may lead to a situation where some sections complete play through playoffs and Sectionals and are ready for Nationals, while other sections do not.

In the past, even without a pandemic, not every section sends a team at every level, so I doubt that one or even two sections not having teams to send would cancel Nationals.  But what if three or four don't send teams?  At what point does National decide to cancel?  Or would they carry on if at least half the sections send teams, and perhaps even open up wildcards for runners up from Sectionals to advance to Nationals?

Let's all hope it doesn't come to that and the restrictions preventing play in some areas are lifted soon and everything can go on more or less as planned.