Wednesday, October 25, 2017

The 2017 USTA League 18 & over 4.5 Women's National Champion is Florida (EDNR Edition)

The 2017 USTA League Nationals held in Mobile this past weekend did not get completed due to weather and four co-champions were declared for the 18 & over 2.5 women and two each for the 40 & over 4.5+ men and women.

Co-champions just leaves a sour taste in one's mouth though, so in an effort to declare one champion for each of these events, I came up with an approach to identify an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings (EDNR) National Champion.  I will be doing this each time something happens at an event the the final is not contested on the court.

I took a look at the 40 & over 4.5+ men and 18 & over 2.5 women, now the 40 & over 4.5+ women.

In this case, I have not learned the actual line-ups, so I am using the line-ups each team used in their semi-final wins.  Using these and my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings through the semis, that yields this result.

CourtFlorida 4.5+ WExpected ResultSouthern 4.5+F
1SElizabeth Baldwin0.03 →Spencer Moorman
2SJoan Simmons← 0.44Vanessa Dixon
1DGail Gibson / Allegra Campos0.12 →Jan Deener / Allison Scanlan
2DAvery Zercoe / Gueisy Herrmann← 0.12Stacy Trinkle / Mary King
3D Dagmar Rocker / Katarina Rutherford← 0.11Marnie Ochoa / Claudia Wesbrooks

This shows a tight one, with Florida winning 3-2 with the four close matches being split and Florida winning an easy one.

Congratulations Florida on winning the 40 & over 4.5+ women's EDNR National Championship?

p.s. for those interested, yes, I can simulate any match and can include such simulations with scouting reports I do if requested

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