As has been the case since week 6, LSU and Alabama are the top-2 teams. The order has swapped a few times, but according to my computer they have been the clear top-2 teams most of the year. And unlike the polls, my computer didn't drop Alabama just to do so after the loss. Yes, they lost, but they were still the second best team in the country and so were rated/ranked appropriately.
For similar reasons, the 3 teams that lost this weekend remain in the 3 thru 5 spots. They all lost significant ratings points, but because of the lead they had over Stanford/Boise/Arkansas/Wisconsin, they are still ahead of them. Again, even with the loss the computer is saying these teams are better than those behind them.
Look for the final week 12 ratings and rankings on the web-site Sunday morning.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | LSU | 93.979 | 11-0 | 70.977 | +0, -2.284 |
| 2 | Alabama | 91.916 | 10-1 | 71.511 | +0, -1.124 |
| 3 | Oklahoma St | 86.720 | 10-1 | 72.967 | +0, -4.429 |
| 4 | Oregon | 86.003 | 9-2 | 71.474 | +0, -4.742 |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 85.354 | 8-2 | 73.542 | +0, -2.903 |
| 6 | Arkansas | 84.288 | 10-1 | 68.821 | +2, +0.604 |
| 7 | Boise St | 84.067 | 9-1 | 68.456 | +0, -0.440 |
| 8 | Stanford | 82.555 | 10-1 | 68.860 | -2, -2.309 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 82.177 | 9-2 | 65.576 | +0, -0.827 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 80.532 | 6-5 | 73.976 | +0, -0.303 |
| 11 | Michigan | 80.520 | 9-2 | 68.906 | +3, +1.029 |
| 12 | Southern Cal | 79.986 | 9-2 | 71.524 | +1, +0.271 |
| 13 | Georgia | 79.408 | 9-2 | 68.781 | -2, -1.268 |
| 14 | Kansas St | 78.747 | 9-2 | 73.173 | +1, -0.207 |
| 15 | Missouri | 78.364 | 6-5 | 73.663 | -3, -1.746 |
| 16 | Houston | 78.329 | 11-0 | 59.750 | +9, +1.252 |
| 17 | South Carolina | 78.154 | 9-2 | 70.438 | +0, -0.636 |
| 18 | TCU | 77.739 | 9-2 | 65.307 | +2, -0.550 |
| 19 | Michigan St | 77.503 | 9-2 | 66.623 | +2, -0.630 |
| 20 | Texas | 77.145 | 6-4 | 72.404 | -4, -1.704 |
| 21 | Notre Dame | 77.080 | 8-3 | 69.365 | -3, -1.570 |
| 22 | Baylor | 77.046 | 7-3 | 73.062 | +6, +1.430 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 76.229 | 8-3 | 70.588 | -4, -2.290 |
| 24 | Virginia Tech | 75.883 | 10-1 | 66.977 | +2, -1.029 |
| 25 | Penn State | 75.681 | 9-2 | 69.054 | +4, +0.133 |
How did 6-5 Texas A&M and 6-5 Missouri rank ahead of so many 9-2 and 8-3 teams? How can you have them ranked ahead of 10-1 VA Tech or 11-0 Houston?
ReplyDeleteYes, they have played brutal schedules, but they have lost many of them.
From looking at your full rankings you are really discounting teams like Univ. of Virginia, Arkansas St., and Clemson. (two of those 3 have beat Florida State and have better records to boot!).
The primary driving factor for my ratings is to position the teams such that predicting games against the spread is optimized. I believe that is the best measure of a system as if one can most accurately predict future games, then the teams must be rated in the right spot. It isn't tuned to pick winners/losers as much as the spread. Then the ranking is simply the result of ordering the teams based on their rating.
ReplyDeleteSo, a 6-5 Texas A&M or Missouri is ranked where they are because the computer says that on a neutral field they would beat, or have a very close/competitive game, with a Houston. If Texas A&M were to play Houston, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas make them the favored team.
And yes, they are rated there because of their brutal schedules. Both play in the Big-12 which went 27-3 out of conference while the ACC is only 30-14 and the Sun Belt is a very poor 11-23. OOC record doesn't tell everything, but with this much disparity it tells you something.
And beating FSU isn't that special this year, they've lost to a 2-loss OU, a 2-loss Clemson, a 5-loss Wake Forest, and a 3-loss Virginia. And FSU has only beat two teams with winning records, those being 6-5 Miami and 6-5 NC State.
If you want a system that simply rewards a good record, mine isn't the one. If you want a system that accurately predicts games and thus has teams rated where they should be based on their strength, you've found the place.