NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 2/21/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 21st.

Projected 65 team college basketball tournament teams

The College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 14th.

And rather than just post the rankings here, instead, the list below are the current teams that would make the 65 team tourney using the highest ranked team from the 31 conferences and the next 34 highest rated teams to fill out the bracket.  Those teams with an asterisk are the highest rated from their conference and thus the projected automatic bid.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas*	95.931	24-1	80.158	+0, +0.590
2	Duke*	94.445	21-4	81.311	+1, +0.562
3	Syracuse*	92.932	24-2	79.593	-1, -2.061
4	Villanova	92.674	22-2	81.183	+2, +0.701
5	Kansas St	92.254	19-4	81.665	+0, +0.010
6	Purdue*	91.815	21-3	80.066	+3, +0.725
7	West Virginia	91.677	19-5	82.987	-3, -0.933
8	Kentucky*	91.220	24-1	78.458	+0, -0.243
9	Wisconsin	90.591	19-6	81.269	-2, -0.959
10	Ohio State	90.390	20-6	79.141	+6, +0.924
11	Baylor	90.292	18-5	79.880	-1, -0.435
12	Brigham Young*	90.136	22-3	77.564	+1, -0.185
13	Texas	90.093	20-5	79.684	-2, -0.298
14	Georgetown DC	89.982	18-6	82.220	-2, -0.355
15	Marquette	89.601	16-8	79.541	-1, -0.070
16	Missouri	89.425	18-7	78.441	-1, -0.068
17	Gonzaga*	89.282	20-4	79.566	+2, +0.722
18	California*	88.667	17-8	81.593	+2, +0.231
19	Maryland	88.446	15-7	79.684	-2, -0.710
20	Xavier OH*	88.325	17-7	81.190	+11, +0.855
21	Dayton	87.961	17-7	79.456	+6, +0.282
21	Michigan St	87.961	20-6	80.675	-3, -0.764
23	New Mexico	87.812	23-3	79.143	+10, +0.477
24	Butler*	87.806	23-4	79.669	+2, +0.126
25	Pittsburgh	87.774	19-6	80.522	+3, +0.134
26	Louisville	87.754	16-9	81.017	-5, -0.389
27	Vanderbilt	87.624	18-5	80.500	+5, +0.235
28	Utah St*	87.600	19-6	78.090	+1, +0.059
29	Texas A&M	87.568	17-6	80.880	+1, +0.033
30	Wake Forest	87.447	18-5	80.998	+4, +0.176
31	Temple	87.350	20-5	80.246	+7, +0.896
32	Clemson	87.071	18-7	79.815	+4, +0.112
33	Georgia Tech	87.007	16-8	80.771	-9, -0.847
34	Virginia Tech	86.958	20-4	77.091	+14, +1.036
35	Mississippi	86.657	17-7	79.596	+0, -0.507
36	St Mary's CA	86.617	20-5	78.039	-13, -1.344
37	Old Dominion*	86.471	20-7	78.742	+7, +0.418
38	UTEP*	86.437	19-5	75.866	+2, +0.232
39	Tennessee	86.409	18-6	80.105	-14, -1.305
40	UNLV	86.350	18-6	80.056	-18, -1.628
41	Mississippi St	86.096	18-7	77.793	+6, +0.142
42	Richmond	85.967	20-6	79.074	+19, +0.912
42	Washington	85.967	17-8	79.966	+7, +0.092
44	Oklahoma St	85.963	17-7	78.753	+9, +0.368
45	San Diego St	85.946	16-7	79.631	+9, +0.358
46	Northern Iowa*	85.753	22-3	77.804	-9, -0.783
47	Florida St	85.558	18-7	79.827	+4, -0.141
48	Arizona St	85.507	18-8	78.618	+4, -0.182
57	Siena*	84.890	22-5	76.733	-12, -1.114
59	Murray St*	84.709	22-3	72.453	+7, +0.529
68	Cornell NY*	83.645	19-4	76.179	-25, -2.451
84	Kent St*	82.514	17-8	78.003	-6, -0.464
90	Wofford*	81.664	18-8	76.071	+5, +0.117
91	Montana*	81.569	16-8	75.902	-3, -0.707
98	Sam Houston St*	81.228	14-5	75.901	+6, +0.235
117	IUPUI*	79.643	16-9	76.133	+4, +0.274
125	Coastal Carolina*	78.948	18-5	71.473	-11, -0.855
139	Belmont*	78.526	16-10	75.616	+3, +0.242
141	Morgan St*	78.506	19-7	73.824	-17, -0.747
147	Western Kentucky*	78.067	15-12	75.647	+10, +0.521
151	Long Beach St*	77.797	10-13	79.964	+5, +0.162
161	Stony Brook*	77.305	17-7	71.832	+21, +1.001
181	Quinnipiac*	76.071	18-7	69.348	-1, -0.317
199	Lehigh*	75.141	16-9	71.702	-13, -0.667
244	Texas Southern*	71.764	10-11	72.578	+5, +0.129

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 2/7/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 7th.

In the NBA, the top-3 are the same, but Utah swaps spots with the Lakers.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Cleveland	90.414	41-11	83.521	+0, +0.169
2	Utah	88.472	31-18	83.598	+1, +0.538
3	LA Lakers	88.296	39-13	83.346	-1, -0.313
4	Orlando	87.437	34-17	83.673	+1, +0.001
5	Denver	87.223	34-17	83.541	-1, -0.411
6	Oklahoma City	86.862	29-21	83.902	+1, +0.445
7	Atlanta	86.424	32-17	83.614	-1, -0.124
8	San Antonio	86.191	29-20	82.893	+1, +0.265
9	Phoenix	85.764	31-21	84.043	+6, +1.121
10	Boston	85.678	32-17	83.494	-2, -0.321
11	Portland	85.070	30-23	83.826	+0, -0.222
12	Charlotte	85.058	24-25	84.031	-2, -0.794
13	Dallas	84.357	31-19	84.135	-1, -0.760
14	Milwaukee	84.214	23-26	83.862	+6, +0.785
15	Houston	84.186	27-23	84.249	+4, +0.378
16	Toronto	84.101	28-23	83.732	+0, -0.538
17	Miami	83.884	24-27	84.242	-3, -0.789
18	Memphis	83.879	26-24	84.005	-5, -0.929
19	Chicago	83.768	24-25	84.121	-2, -0.702
20	New Orleans	83.437	27-24	83.575	-2, -0.663
21	Philadelphia	82.426	19-31	83.421	+1, +1.099
22	LA Clippers	81.633	21-29	84.048	-1, +0.200
23	New York	81.075	19-31	83.090	+0, +0.291
24	Indiana	80.533	18-33	83.444	+3, +0.846
25	Washington	79.885	17-32	83.505	+1, -0.174
26	Sacramento	79.786	16-34	84.316	-1, -0.312
27	Golden State	79.611	13-36	84.156	-3, -0.574
28	Minnesota	79.509	13-38	83.862	+1, +1.112
29	Detroit	78.427	17-32	83.605	-1, -0.410
30	New Jersey	74.842	4-46	84.197	+0, +0.181

The college top-25 is listed below and show the top-3 staying the same but WVU and Wisconsin making the big leaps up to #4 and #7 respectively.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas	95.341	22-1	79.714	+0, -0.919
2	Syracuse	94.993	23-1	79.554	+0, +0.697
3	Duke	93.883	19-4	81.081	+0, -0.061
4	West Virginia	92.610	19-3	82.086	+7, +1.486
5	Kansas St	92.244	18-4	81.926	+0, +0.274
6	Villanova	91.973	20-2	80.641	-2, -1.273
7	Wisconsin	91.550	18-5	81.539	+6, +1.320
8	Kentucky	91.463	22-1	78.560	-1, +0.213
9	Purdue	91.090	19-3	80.112	+1, -0.096
10	Baylor	90.727	16-5	79.236	-1, -0.463
11	Texas	90.391	19-4	79.524	+1, -0.510
12	Georgetown DC	90.337	17-5	81.900	-4, -0.871
13	Brigham Young	90.321	21-3	78.098	-7, -1.044
14	Marquette	89.671	15-8	79.708	+0, -0.538
15	Missouri	89.493	17-6	77.979	+2, -0.146
16	Ohio State	89.466	18-6	78.730	+0, -0.249
17	Maryland	89.156	15-6	78.909	+4, +0.863
18	Michigan St	88.725	19-5	80.402	-3, -1.084
19	Gonzaga	88.560	18-4	79.987	+16, +1.638
20	California	88.436	15-8	82.062	+3, +0.174
21	Louisville	88.143	15-8	80.153	+5, +0.460
22	UNLV	87.978	18-4	79.668	+18, +1.514
23	St Mary's CA	87.961	20-3	77.191	-2, -0.332
24	Georgia Tech	87.854	16-6	80.247	-6, -1.145
25	Tennessee	87.714	18-4	79.271	+4, +0.261

Congratulations New Orleans

And then there were the Saints.  The team that was #1 every week of the year since week 2 and the team that the computer picked to win the Super Bowl despite Vegas having the Colts by 6 won the Super Bowl to bring the first championship to New Orleans.

As can be seen in the final ratings/rankings, the win extends the Saints lead to over 2 ratings points over new #2 Minnesota.  Interestingly, the Colts fall all the way to #4 as the computer has to use the 31-17 final score even though that isn't indicative of how close the game was.  Had the game finished at 24-17 the Colts would have stayed #2 narrowly ahead of Minnesota.

For the post season, the computer did well going 6-4-1 against the spread and 8-3 picking winners.  Coupled with the 148-102-6 against the spread and 166-90 picking winners in the regular season, all in all a good year in the picking department.

Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Here is the full Super Bowl XLIV preview that was sent to newsletter subscribers awhile ago and is now on the web-site.  Previews for all of the 2010 NFL playoffs here.

The Saints and Colts will meet in the Super Bowl on February 7 in Miami.

The Saints are ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-3 record and a rating of 87.906 against a schedule strength of 80.664.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows that apart from the 3 game stretch where they were perhaps not playing to win they were pretty consistent and were the clear #1 all year.  However, the Arizona game rated up where they'd been all year but the game against Minnesota didn't as much.  They are 9-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 14-4 picking winners in their games.



The Colts are ranked #2 with a 16-2 record and a rating of 86.548 against a schedule strength of 80.619.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they too, except for the dip when they rested players, were consistently very good and ranked #2 much of the year.  They are 11-5-2 against the spread and the computer is 9-7-2 predicting them against the spread and 14-4 picking the winner in their games.



The teams did not play head to head but are separated by 2 degrees in 6 ways as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Arizona-->Indianapolis

2 New_Orleans-->Buffalo-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->Miami-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->New_England-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->NY_Jets-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->Indianapolis

Against Arizona, Indy won early in the year 31-10 on the road (when the Cardinals were playing better on the road than at home) and the Saints won 45-14 just last week at home.  The Saints beat Buffalo 27-7 on the road early and the Colts lost 30-7 on the road when mailing it in week 17.  Against Miami Indy won 27-23 early on the road and New Orleans won 46-34 also on the road mid-season.  The Colts eked out the 35-34 win at home over the Patriots while the Saints won 38-17 at home.  Indy played the Jets twice losing 29-15 when mailing it in but winning 30-17 when it mattered while the Saints won 24-10 early.  And the Colts beat the Rams 42-6 on the road mid-season and the Saints won narrowly 28-23 a few weeks later.

From the results alone, edge would seem to be the Saints just because they won every one of the common opponents games and the Colts lost 2.  But those 2 were when the Colts rested players and the Saints bad games just weren't against common opponents.  Apart from those 2 losses, the common opponents is pretty close with NO an edge with Miami and the Pats and Indy the edge with the Rams.

The early spread is all over the place, all picking the Colts, but ranging from 2.5 to 6 points.  With the computer picking the Saints by 1.4 the pick on the surface would be to get grab the +6 right away.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*New_Orleans           +6.0 over ..         Indianapolis  1.4  7.4 0.541 0.712

However, if we dig a bit, we can look at a few scenarios.  First, we clearly know that the Colts rested players the last 2 weeks.  What effect would winning those 2 games of had on their rating?  Let's make both games 20-17 wins for the Colts.  That would have put the Colts #1 and the pick by 1.7.  Had they won each game 27-17 instead, the pick would be Colts by 2.5 which reaches the lower end of the current spread range.

But, perhaps the Saints were resting too.  Let's assume the Dallas game was valid but then they rested the last 2 weeks and would have won 20-17 in each game.  Coupled with the larger Colts wins scenario above, this would shrink the pick to Colts by 0.5.

So, even with the scenarios, the strongest pick would continue to be Saints plus the 6, although some scenarios clearly have the Colts the pick to win rather than the Saints.  Use the information as you will, and let me know if you have any questions or other scenarios you'd like run.

Enjoy!

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/31/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 31st.

In the NBA, the top-3 remain the same with Cleveland, the Lakers, and Utah, and only Denver moving past Orlando is the only change in the top-7.  All these teams are close though so a loss or big win here and there can cause movement.

In College, Kansas remains #1 and Syracuse moves to #2.  Duke goes 1-1 during the week and drops to #3, Villanova stays at #4, and KState moves up 2 spots to #5 dropping BYU who had a loss to #6.