College Football Week 2 Projections - LSU and Ohio U. now undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 2 are now available.

There are still two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated, but they are now Ohio U. and LSU, Ohio U. at a healthy 70% chance.  LSU is just above 50% with a 1-loss season a 41% chance.

The teams with the best chance to join/replace those two include Alabama (35% chance), Georgia (15%), and Louisville (22%).  The projected result of the Alabama/LSU game is what changed to move LSU up and Alabama down, and was because while Alabama remained #1, LSU closed the gap and their game is at LSU giving them the edge.

What about a Pac-12 or B1G team?  Oregon has won easily, but has given up a fair number of points which the computer factors in and is projected to have 2 losses with a 28% chance of 1 loss and an 8% chance of no losses.  USC has not impressed the computer thus far and is projected to have 3 losses, but a 22% chance of just 2, a 9% chance of 1, and a 2% chance of none.

Michigan State is projected to have 2 losses, but a health 30% chance at 1 and 11% chance of none.  Ohio State is also projected to have 2 losses, but not as good a shot at better with a 14% chance of 1 and 2% chance of none.

With 2 games played by most teams, there is more data, but this is still awfully early and things can change, and with games this upcoming week such as USC at Stanford, Notre Dame at Michigan State, Alabama at Arkansas, and others, we could know quite a bit more in a week.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Ohio U.	12-0	69.9	0.0	26.2
LSU	12-0	51.3	0.0	41.3
Alabama	11-1	59.9	34.7	5.3
Boise St	11-1	44.3	0.0	39.8
Georgia	11-1	38.5	15.4	31.2
Louisville	11-1	38.3	22.0	27.1
Northern Illinois	10-2	36.4	17.3	30.2
Oregon	10-2	35.7	28.1	20.8
Cincinnati	10-2	34.3	24.1	24.0
Michigan St	10-2	32.7	30.0	18.7
Clemson	10-2	31.9	20.1	26.2
Arizona St	10-2	31.6	19.9	26.4
Ohio State	10-2	31.4	14.2	31.0
Kansas St	10-2	31.2	18.6	27.3
Baylor	10-2	30.5	19.3	26.4

College Football Week 2 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama remains #1, LSU moves to #2

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Alabama remains #1 after easily handling Western Kentucky, but LSU moves to #2 less than a point behind them after thumping Washington.  There is a huge (>9 points) gap back to K-State at #3 and Baylor at #4, then another SEC team at #5 and Oregon makes its mark at #6.  Boise State while idle gets passed by a few teams and falls to #7.  The SEC shows up again at #8 with South Carolina and the Pac-12 has a second team in the top-9 with #9 ASU, and the SEC has an astonishing 5th team in the top-10 with Mississippi State.

So, the top-10 has 5 SEC teams, 2 Pac-12 and Big-12, and Boise State.  Is that indicative of the real strength of the conferences this year?  Many teams have played 2 games now so there is a little more validity to the ratings but things can certainly still change significantly as the more meaningful games are played.

But let's take a look at some of the moves.

Alabama lost some ratings points, that was due to playing a weak opponent, but more importantly their first week opponent Michigan, winning by only 6 at home over Air Force and their rating dropping.

Another SEC team was upset, Arkansas, and fell dramatically all the way down to #34.  It will be interesting to see how they fare in the SEC and how this loss in turn affects the rest of the conference.

A team not doing that great in my ratings but #2 in most of the polls is USC.  They won in New Jersey against Syracuse but not that impressively and so have not made a move up.  But they go to #14 Stanford next week so have a chance to make a statement.

Oklahoma State was rated high last week based on last year and their meaningless drubbing of Savannah State not giving any reason to drop them, but their loss to Arizona by 21 does tell us something and they drop all the way to #52.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	93.779	2-0	68.117	+0, -3.140
2	LSU	92.994	2-0	60.493	+1, +5.105
3	Kansas St	83.906	2-0	60.891	+18, +7.093
4	Baylor	83.670	1-0	65.221	+1, +1.332
5	Georgia	82.407	2-0	64.409	+12, +4.837
6	Oregon	81.878	2-0	60.826	-2, -2.862
7	Boise St	81.367	0-1	82.651	-1, -0.291
8	South Carolina	81.294	2-0	68.757	+2, +0.491
9	Arizona St	80.568	2-0	60.029	+23, +6.849
10	Mississippi St	80.345	2-0	50.939	+24, +6.970
11	Southern Cal	79.947	2-0	61.782	-2, -1.040
12	Michigan St	79.651	2-0	68.155	+0, -0.595
13	Oklahoma	78.870	2-0	53.820	-6, -2.742
14	Stanford	78.773	2-0	64.202	+10, +2.741
15	Tennessee	78.481	2-0	49.780	+8, +2.004
16	West Virginia	78.139	1-0	58.749	+2, +0.583
17	Texas	77.629	2-0	55.611	+3, +0.316
18	Florida	76.418	2-0	68.439	+13, +2.691
19	Nebraska	76.392	1-1	70.789	-11, -4.912
20	Ohio State	76.360	2-0	59.886	+5, +0.903
21	Texas Tech	76.236	2-0	52.945	+34, +7.079
22	Louisville	76.024	2-0	59.444	+15, +3.000
23	Cincinnati	75.934	1-0	58.285	+12, +2.617
24	Ohio U.	75.932	2-0	65.594	+12, +2.655
25	Clemson	75.814	2-0	64.159	+1, +0.450

NFL Week 1 Preview - Cowboys at Giants

The NFL season begins today, on a Wednesday rather than what had been a Thursday the past several years, with a key NFC East matchup as the Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants.

Since my computer does not attempt to adjust ratings based on off-season moves, the computer's pick is simply based on last years end of season ratings, but we can still take a look at last year to see if there is any indication of how things might start this year.

The Giants started slow last year, falling to #24 after their week 1 loss and were only ranked #19 with a 7-7 record after week 15.  But they closed with 2 good wins to get to #12 and then ran the table finishing #5 after their Superbowl win.  Here is their performance chart for the year.

Dallas started stronger, getting into the top-10, but then finished mid-pack in the low to mid-teens and losing 4 of their last 5.  Here is their chart.

Last year, the teams played twice and the Giants won by 3 in Dallas and by 17 at home.  But in 2010, they split, the Giants winning in Dallas by 6 and the Cowboys by 13 in New York.

What does this all mean?  If the teams play like they did last year, with more emphasis on the later games, the Giants are the better team and my computer likes them by just over 7 since they are at home.  With the line at 3.5 that makes the Giants a decent pick against the spread too.

Let the season begin!

Analyzing the 9/4/2012 AP Poll - Very little consensus yet

Thanks to the Associated Press choosing to be transparent in their voting, we can see who votes for who each week and analyze the results and week to week changes.  I've done this the past few years towards the end of the season, but plan to take a look at it each week this year.

I did not analyze the pre-season poll, everyone was just guessing at where to rank teams in that one, but with most teams having played one game, there are at least some real results for the voters to base their voting on, so let's take a look.

As always, we have our summary chart below.  It shows us each team receiving votes across the X-axis, voting positions on the Y-axis, and then this weeks rank as well as the high and low vote in the body.

As you might imagine, there isn't a whole lot of consensus at this point, except near the top, and even there, it isn't clear cut.  Three teams are receiving 1st place votes (Alabama, USC, LSU), but one of those teams in LSU is receiving a vote as low as #9 and two #7 votes!  Even USC, last weeks poll #1 and an impressive winner over Hawaii this weekend is receiving a #5 vote.  Oregon is not that far behind the top-3 and is receiving votes between 2 and 6, but then things get crazy.

Oklahoma is receiving votes in a broad range from 3 to 17, but FSU right behind them is in the range of 3 to 23!  Other teams with large ranges include Arkansas (3 to 21), West Virginia (5 to 24), and Wisconsin (6 to 24).  It will be interesting to watch and see how things settle down and converge over the next few weeks.

Here is the chart:

Given how early it is, one can't really say that any of these voters is right or wrong, but as the season goes along, I'll work to identify oddities or biases in the voting.  Stay tuned.

And if there are any suggestions on analysis you'd like to see, let me know.

College Football Week 2 Predictions - LSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas State, Georgia, Texas A&M

I don't recommend using my ratings for predictions early in the year, there simply isn't enough data from one week to have much confidence in the predictions, but the predictions for week 2 are now on the site.  And while the confidence in the picks may not be high, the computer did go 24-16 against the spread and 31-9 picking winners in week 1.

There are no games between top-25 teams, so let's look at a few interesting inter-conference games.

Computer #50 Washington visits #3 LSU and the computer doesn't expect anything close (LSU by 20), but it will be interesting to see if LSU tries to make a statement as well as if the Huskies defense has improved after giving up 67 to Baylor last year.

The Pac-12 gets to host a big-name opponent as #19 Wisconsin visits #77 Oregon State.  This shouldn't be terribly close (Wisconsin by 10) but after Wisconsin's narrow win vs Northern Iowa, it should tell us something about Wisconsin's hopes in their conference.

And I'm not being a Pac-12 homer, they just have some of the interesting games this weekend, but the Pac-12 hosts another big-name opponent as #8 Nebraska visits #44 UCLA.  UCLA looked good in beating Rice and moved up in the ratings, but Nebraska looked great too.  This game could tell us which team really has improved from last year and which was just a good showing against a weak opponent.  The computer likes Nebraska by 7.

The hopes of some early season undefeated buzz for #38 Miami-FL and #21 K-State will be determined as the Hurricanes go on the road.  The computer likes K-State by 7.

Also, in some early intra-conference action, #29 Missouri hosts #17 Georgia in their inaugural SEC game.  The computer has this as a virtual pick'em game (Georgia by 0.2) and it could be one of the weekends most competitive games.

And in the other inaugural SEC game, #31 Florida visits #14 Texas A&M.  Florida handled Bowling Green, but not impressively, while the Aggies have yet to play.  Can they make a statement in their first game in the SEC?  The computer likes them by more than 8.

Enjoy the games.

College Football Week 1 Projections - Two Undefeated Teams, Alabama and Oklahoma State

The projected records for the regular season are now available.

There are two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated now, Alabama and Oklahoma State.  Alabama impressed and with LSU not being as impressive and being their toughest test, they are now projected to be undefeated and at 74% an odds on favorite to do so.  Oklahoma State has a great shot as well at 48%

Three teams, Ohio U, Oregon, and LSU, are projected to have just one loss, Ohio U having the best chance at going undefeated at 39%.

It is still very early, with just1 game played, projections are anything but precise but it is still fun to follow.

The teams with 2 or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Alabama	12-0	74.1	0.0	24.4
Oklahoma St	12-0	48.1	0.0	37.9
Ohio U.	11-1	40.9	39.1	16.4
Oregon	11-1	45.2	30.2	20.2
LSU	11-1	39.8	7.9	36.7
Boise St	10-2	41.3	41.3	14.7
Nebraska	10-2	33.5	25.8	22.4
Michigan St	10-2	34.8	24.0	24.5
Nevada	10-2	33.4	23.5	24.1
Florida St	10-2	32.1	21.0	25.9

College Football Week 1 Ratings and Rankings - Alabama clear #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Alabama remains #1 after their convincing win, and Oklahoma State makes a big move up after their 84-0 win but is still over 2 ratings points behind.  LSU falls after their closer than expected win but is still well ahead of Oregon.  Baylor makes a big move up to #5 and Boise State, even though they lost and lose ratings points, stays at #6.  They are able to do this as Arkansas fell over 5 ratings points to #11 and no team other than Baylor was able to move ahead.

It is still very early, with just one game played we really know very little about the teams yet, but it is interesting to see some of the initial moves and indications.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	96.919	1-0	78.019	+0, +0.773
2	Oklahoma St	94.672	1-0	17.827	+1, +7.203
3	LSU	87.889	1-0	59.455	-1, -6.107
4	Oregon	84.740	1-0	63.875	+0, -0.815
5	Baylor	82.338	1-0	62.327	+9, +3.331
6	Boise St	81.658	0-1	83.246	+0, -2.425
7	Oklahoma	81.612	1-0	65.720	+0, -1.788
8	Nebraska	81.304	1-0	66.001	+17, +6.424
9	Southern Cal	80.987	1-0	57.949	+2, +1.377
10	South Carolina	80.803	1-0	76.914	+0, +0.112
11	Arkansas	80.323	1-0	53.950	-6, -5.117
12	Michigan St	80.246	1-0	78.658	+7, +2.425
13	Notre Dame	79.783	1-0	62.628	+10, +4.195
14	Texas A&M	79.137	0-0	0.000	-1, +0.000
15	Michigan	78.019	0-1	96.919	+0, -0.773
16	TCU	77.951	0-0	0.000	+2, -0.000
17	Georgia	77.570	1-0	56.027	-5, -1.891
18	West Virginia	77.556	1-0	57.477	+9, +3.275
19	Wisconsin	77.463	1-0	67.946	-10, -4.543
20	Texas	77.313	1-0	59.652	+1, +0.972
21	Kansas St	76.813	1-0	51.405	-1, -0.100
22	Florida St	76.596	1-0	47.946	+0, +0.493
23	Tennessee	76.477	1-0	66.262	+12, +3.806
24	Stanford	76.032	1-0	66.556	-16, -6.515
25	Ohio State	75.457	1-0	55.232	+18, +4.443