2010 Week 3 College Football Rankings and Review; Alabama #1, Oregon #2, Stanford #3

With most teams now having played three games, we are beginning to get a clearer picture of where the teams stand.  The pre-season (end of last year) rating is now less than 25% of the rating and goes to almost zero after 4 games, so we now see what a teams performance from this year results in.

The full rankings are on the web-site, but the top-30 is below for quick reference.

Alabama stays #1 and again recovers some of the points they lost from playing a weak opponent week 1 and has a sizable lead over new #2 Oregon and #3 Stanford.  Stanford and #4 Nebraska made big moves  after their dominating wins against BCS non-conference foes.

Arizona also makes a strong move after their statement win over Iowa, but the big move of the week is Nevada leaping to #15 after easily taking care of California.  Oklahoma State also makes a big move to #21.

Air Force, the surprise mover up of last week played better than Vegas thought, but still lost, and drops 9 spots.  Texas A&M drops 12 spots as does Oregon State after winning by less than expected at home against a not so great opponents.  But Cal is the big loser dropping 24 spots all the way to #37 after their loss to Nevada.

The BCS buster watch has TCU falling to #6 and Boise State to #9 after good wins, but they were just passed by teams having more dominating wins over stronger opponents.  Boise State is definitely helped by Nevada's win as that likely gives them another quality opponent late in the year and it will be on the road.  But Oregon State may not be as strong as they hoped.  Interestingly, Oregon State will be a common opponent for Boise State, TCU, Stanford, and Oregon, all teams presently in the top-9!

Picking games, the computer went 30-24 against the spread and 44-10 picking winners while Vegas went 42-12 picking winners.  Not bad considering the computer is just getting going.  Full prediction performance here.

Look for predictions and preview of the upcoming week here and on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	93.185	3-0	66.898	+0, +0.990
2	Oregon	88.600	3-0	57.658	+1, +2.542
3	Stanford	87.354	3-0	65.772	+7, +6.117
4	Nebraska	86.459	3-0	61.628	+10, +6.951
5	Florida	85.814	3-0	65.709	-3, -2.377
6	TCU	84.522	3-0	63.381	-2, +0.313
7	LSU	83.920	3-0	71.123	+2, +2.423
8	Texas	82.989	3-0	64.904	+4, +2.790
9	Boise St	82.930	2-0	71.606	-1, +1.240
10	Ohio State	82.838	3-0	62.960	-4, -0.391
11	Arizona	82.618	3-0	64.799	+5, +3.409
12	Oklahoma	81.364	3-0	69.804	-1, +1.062
13	Iowa	80.523	2-1	61.643	-6, -2.358
14	Air Force	80.506	2-1	60.086	-9, -3.564
15	Nevada	80.443	3-0	57.886	+27, +7.972
16	Arkansas	80.375	3-0	60.565	+2, +2.021
17	South Carolina	79.998	3-0	64.737	-2, +0.547
18	Virginia Tech	78.408	1-2	73.945	+4, +1.236
19	Penn State	78.028	2-1	69.879	+5, +1.203
20	Auburn	76.358	3-0	67.095	+1, -0.835
21	Oklahoma St	76.325	3-0	60.131	+22, +4.449
22	Pittsburgh	76.243	1-1	66.564	-5, -2.319
23	Utah	76.075	3-0	60.834	-3, -1.559
24	Fresno St	75.415	2-0	66.319	+8, +1.518
25	North Carolina St	75.225	3-0	61.236	+11, +1.846
26	Miami FL	75.127	1-1	65.108	+1, -0.092
27	Southern Cal	75.028	3-0	65.982	+1, -0.138
28	Clemson	74.775	2-1	54.693	+11, +1.891
29	Florida St	74.132	2-1	64.260	+27, +4.404
30	Texas Tech	74.120	2-1	67.484	-7, -2.817

2010 NFL Week 1 Projected Records; Saints, Packers, Cardinals, Giants and Ravens, Patriots, Texans, Chiefs win divisions

With one weeks worth of games in the books, my computer can make updated projections for the regular season records and who will make the playoffs.

With only one game played I can't say these will be the most accurate, but after week 1 last year the computer had 4 of the 6 AFC teams picked and 4 of the 6 NFC teams, so it may not be that far off.

See the full list for week 1, but here is some commentary.

In the NFC, it is no surprise to see New Orleans and Green Bay projected to win their conferences at 12-4 and 11-5, but Minnesota is close behind the Packers at 10-6.  After that, the NFC is not impressive with division winners Arizona and the Giants at 9-7 and Seattle slipping in as the last team also at 9-7.  Arizona gets the nod over Seattle by having a slightly greater chance of finishing at 9-7 as well as 10-6.

Teams you might expect to vie for an NFC playoff spot like Dallas, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Atlanta, are all projected to be 8-8 right now so certainly have a shot at getting in if they play a bit better than they did in week 1.

In the AFC, it is a bit tighter with 4 teams all at 11-5 or 10-6 with Baltimore, New England, and Houston winning divisions and Pittsburgh picking up a wildcard.  Kansas City gets the division winner nod over San Diego based on a better chance at 9-7 as well as 10-6 and Miami gets the last wildcard over San Diego, the Jets, and Tennessee, all also at 9-7.  Jacksonville and Indianapolis are at 8-8 so close to getting into the 9-7 mix.

Stay tuned for more updates.

2010 NFL Week 1 Ratings and Rankings; New Orleans #1, New England #2, Green Bay #3

Week 1 of the NFL season brought a few surprises and with them some interesting changes in my computer's rankings.  The rankings are below but see the site for more details.

The Saints stay #1 which is no surprise, but there is quite a bit of shakeup behind them.  The Patriots, Packers, and Ravens all made strong moves to get ahead of Minnesota, even though Minnesota's rating didn't drop much at all.  Houston also made a strong move up as did the Giants.

Indianapolis and Dallas were big losers as was San Diego.  They certainly hope week 1 is not what we can expect to see the rest of the year.

Given how much teams change from last year and how varied performances can be early in the year, the predictions were not very good going 7-9 against the spread and 8-8 picking winners vs Vegas going 11-5.

See another post in a few minutes on projected records after week 1.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	88.752	1-0	82.929	+0, +0.088
2	New England	87.115	1-0	76.647	+3, +1.568
3	Green Bay	87.105	1-0	84.836	+5, +2.367
4	Baltimore	86.113	1-0	86.962	+5, +1.425
5	Minnesota	85.929	0-1	91.752	-3, -0.088
6	Houston	85.314	1-0	80.074	+7, +2.683
7	NY Jets	83.962	0-1	83.113	-1, -1.425
8	NY Giants	83.732	1-0	77.611	+13, +3.443
9	Pittsburgh	83.556	1-0	79.481	+5, +1.464
10	Indianapolis	83.074	0-1	88.314	-6, -2.683
11	Miami	82.864	1-0	81.392	+7, +1.966
12	Tennessee	82.849	1-0	69.168	+7, +2.361
13	Dallas	82.721	0-1	83.307	-10, -3.209
14	Atlanta	82.481	0-1	86.556	-2, -1.464
15	Philadelphia	81.836	0-1	84.105	-5, -2.367
16	San Diego	81.292	0-1	82.095	-9, -3.601
17	Jacksonville	81.068	1-0	73.259	+8, +3.798
18	Arizona	80.827	1-0	74.227	-3, -1.001
19	Carolina	80.611	0-1	86.732	-8, -3.443
20	Washington	80.307	1-0	79.721	+6, +3.209
21	Seattle	79.968	1-0	72.693	+9, +5.567
22	Cincinnati	79.647	0-1	90.115	-5, -1.568
23	Kansas City	79.095	1-0	78.292	+5, +3.601
24	Buffalo	78.392	0-1	79.864	-4, -1.966
25	Tampa Bay	77.597	1-0	73.288	-1, -0.154
26	Chicago	76.970	1-0	68.026	-3, -1.473
27	Cleveland	76.288	0-1	80.597	+0, +0.154
28	Denver	76.259	0-1	84.068	-6, -3.798
29	San Francisco	75.693	0-1	82.968	-13, -5.567
30	Oakland	72.168	0-1	85.849	-1, -2.361
31	St Louis	71.227	0-1	77.827	+0, +1.001
32	Detroit	71.026	0-1	79.970	+0, +1.473

2010 Week 1 NFL Thoughts and Analysis

Most of the games have been played in week 1, so it is time for some thoughts about how the week shaped up.  The computer isn't expected to be predicting that well at this point, after all teams have changed, but comparing how the games went to the predicted can tell us which teams are better or worse than last year.

Minnesota and New Orleans played to right about what the computer expected (5.6 points vs 5) so in this game at least, the teams played pretty much to last seasons performance.  One might have expected the Saints to do a bit better considering the turmoil and missing players for Minnesota.

Miami winning at Buffalo was not expected by the computer so there is likely some combination of Miami improving and Buffalo declining.  Perhaps TO did help the Bills last year.

The computer picked Tennessee to cover and they sure did over Oakland.  The Titans certainly benefited from having Vince Young to start this season where he didn't start last season, but it is probably also taking a little time for the new pieces to gel in Oakland.

It also appears Cincinnati may take a little time for the new pieces to come together, losing by more than expected to New England.  They did play better in the second half so perhaps that is already happening, but the Patriots could just be better too.

The computer liked Carolina but the Giants came out strong.  The Panthers are likely weaker at QB than last year and perhaps there was some extra oomph in the Giants game in the new stadium opener.

The computer liked Pittsburgh and they came through in OT.  Perhaps things won't be as bad as thought the first few weeks.

This game went about as expected (Bucs by 4.6, won by 3), but does anyone outside the respective cities care?

Denver does not appear primed to repeat their fast start of last year after an unexpected drubbing by Jacksonville.  Did the Jags improve or are there larger issues in Denver?

Houston appears for real after pulling the upset and winning by more than Vegas picked them by.  They could give the Colts a run.

Chicago pulled out the win but by less than the computer expected.  Is Detroit on the rise or is a Cutler led team still a bit volatile?

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle started with a bang and the touted 49ers played well below expectations.  First game adrenaline for the Seahawks or does this continue all season?

The computer liked Philly but without McNabb and subsequently Kolb, they didn't perform up to last years rating while Green Bay got the win.

Arizona won, but by less than expected over the Rams.  That could be an indication the Cardinals aren't as good without Wariner and that Bradford has promise.

Dallas didn't look good, losing by 6 when picked to win by 5.8.  They'll need to recover quickly, and are the Redskins for real?

Tonight, the Jets are a 3.7 point pick and The Chargers 6.4.  Lets see what those games tell us about what we might expect from them this year.

2010 Week 2 College Football Projections; Alabama now and Boise St still undefeated

With two games played, there is a little more data to base regular season projected records on, but it is still very early.  However, that doesn't stop me from seeing what my computer projects and here it is.

Last week, Boise State and TCU were projected to be undefeated, but that has changed to just Alabama and Boise State and Alabama at an astounding 60% chance.  BSU was at 59% and has now dropped to 44% after Virginia Tech's bad loss making that win less impressive.

TCU still has a good shot at going undefeated at 30% but with Air Force's impressive start, there is now a decent chance they lose a game to them or someone else.  Other teams projected to have 1 loss and thus a good chance at going undefeated are Oregon (24%), Ohio State (22%), Air Force (16% undefeated), Iowa (14%), and Florida (14%).  All of those teams have a better chance of having 2 losses than zero though.

For those interested in more details, here is what the computer says Alabama's chances are of 8 thru 12 wins:

• 8 -  0.02%
• 9 -  0.55%
• 10 -  6.35%
• 11 - 32.93%
• 12 - 60.15%

By comparison here is Florida:

• 7 -  0.01%
• 8 -  0.30%
• 9 -  3.53%
• 10 - 22.26%
• 11 - 60.08%
• 12 - 13.81%

And Ohio State:

• 7 -  0.01%
• 8 -  0.38%
• 9 -  4.68%
• 10 - 24.62%
• 11 - 48.66%
• 12 - 21.65%

Stay tuned for updates.

Updated to fix clerical error causing slightly incorrect ratings

2010 Week 2 College Football Rankings and Recap; Alabama #1, Florida #2, Oregon #3, Boise State drops to #11

It is still very early, and some bizarre changes can (and did) occur in the ratings and rankings, but here is where things stand after week 2 of the college football season.

The full rankings are on the web-site, but the top-30 is below for quick reference.

Alabama stays #1 and recovers some of the points they lost from playing a weak opponent last week and has a sizable lead over new #2 Florida and #3 Oregon.  Oregon's pounding of Tennessee on the road gave them a healthy boost and Florida got a boost too leap frogging TCU, Boise State, and Ohio State.

But bizarre surprise of the week is Air Force jumping to #5.  But they soundly beat a good BYU team who had beat a Washington team that soundly beat a Syracuse team.  Air Force gets their chance to justify a high ranking when they visit #11 Oklahoma this weekend.  Iowa, Stanford, and Cal also make big jumps up into the top-13 after convincing wins.

Virginia Tech, and by extension Boise State, was the big loser of the week after an embarrassing loss to James Madison.  They drop 18 spots and are saved from justifiably dropping farther by the computer still using last years end of season rating a bit.  As a result Boise State drops to #8 and their strong non-conference opponent just dropped the ball for them.  Georgia Tech and Florida State actually fell further after their poor losses, but Virginia Tech's loss has more meaning overall.

Picking games, the computer went 25-19 against the spread and 37-7 picking winners while Vegas went 38-6 picking winners.  Not bad considering the computer is just getting going.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.195	2-0	65.550	+0, +4.215
2	Florida	88.192	2-0	58.745	+4, +5.862
3	Oregon	86.058	2-0	62.024	+5, +5.562
4	TCU	84.209	2-0	62.669	-2, -0.756
5	Air Force	84.070	2-0	53.487	+49,+13.550
6	Ohio State	83.229	2-0	66.802	-1, +0.724
7	Iowa	82.881	2-0	52.466	+15, +6.964
8	Boise St	81.690	1-0	77.172	-5, -2.689
9	LSU	81.497	2-0	70.851	-2, +0.574
10	Stanford	81.237	2-0	61.156	+21, +5.865
11	Oklahoma	80.302	2-0	65.661	+19, +4.875
12	Texas	80.199	2-0	59.411	-3, +0.246
13	California	79.567	2-0	51.849	+22, +5.727
14	Nebraska	79.508	2-0	54.740	+13, +3.869
15	South Carolina	79.451	2-0	66.662	-4, +1.954
16	Arizona	79.209	2-0	57.198	+3, +2.831
17	Pittsburgh	78.562	1-1	71.192	-4, +1.317
18	Arkansas	78.354	2-0	54.320	-6, +0.915
19	Texas A&M	78.146	2-0	59.449	+22, +4.924
20	Utah	77.634	2-0	66.018	-5, +0.952
21	Auburn	77.193	2-0	63.761	+5, +1.510
22	Virginia Tech	77.172	0-2	77.622	-18, -5.378
23	Southern Cal	77.092	2-0	66.527	-5, +0.704
24	Texas Tech	76.937	2-0	62.562	-3, +0.814
25	Penn State	76.825	1-1	73.665	-9, +0.187
26	North Carolina	75.602	0-1	81.497	+7, +0.287
27	Oregon St	75.392	0-1	84.209	-3, -0.377
28	Miami FL	75.219	1-1	64.268	-3, -0.475
29	Brigham Young	74.570	1-1	78.790	-9, -1.783
30	Georgia	74.557	1-1	67.743	-13, -2.060

Updated 9/12 to correct ratings error

2010 Week 1 NFL Football Preview; Panthers/Giants, Eagles/Packers, Pats/Bengals, Jets/Ravens, Colts/Texans

The computer is using last years end of season ratings so this is really just for entertainment purposes, but here is a preview of some key games in week 1.  Although, the computer did pick the Saints by 5.6 and they won by 5, so maybe these aren't such a bad starting point!

Full picks are here and a newsletter is available to subscribers giving much more details and specific picks against the spread.

Carolina visits the Giants in the regular season opener for the new stadium.  The Giants are favored by 8 but the computer (from last year remember) actually picks the upset and Carolina by 0.8.  If both teams are anything like last years teams, Carolina seems the pretty good pick.

The Kevin Kolb era begins as Philly hosts Green Bay with the visitor favored by 3.  Being at home though, the computer likes Philly by 2.5.  The result of this game will tell us a lot about Kolb being a drop in replacement for McNabb or not.

New England hosts Cincinnati picked by 4 but the computer likes them by 7.3.  How big a difference does Cincy having both Ocho and T.O.?

The Jets get their chance to open the new stadium hosting Baltimore and are favored by 1.5 and the computer says that isn't enough, picking them by 3.7.  Will the Jets live up to all the pre-season hype?

And in a game that could go a long way to determining the division champ, Indy visits Houston favored by 3 and while the computer picks them to win, it is very narrowly by only 0.1.  Look for a close competitive game.

Enjoy the games!