2010 Week 2 College Football Preview; Alabama/PSU, tOSU/Miami, Oregon/Tennessee, FSU/OU, Georgia/South Carolina

There are several interesting games tomorrow, and while the computer has little data to work on, it is still interesting to see what it predicts, so here goes.  The full list of picks here.

Alabama hosts Penn State favored by around 10 and the computer says that isn't enough pegging it 14+ point win for Alabama.  And this after Alabama lost ratings points in their first game.  But playing a quality opponent will go a long way to determining if Alabama stays ranked #1 by the computer.

Ohio State hosts Miami favored by 8 and similar to the above game, the computer likes them by more at nearly 10 points.  This is due in part to Ohio State gaining some ratings points while Miami lost some in their first games.  The computer does not have Ohio State #2 like the polls do (they are #5), but again playing a good Miami team will be a result that is a big factor in where they ultimately get ranked.

Oregon visits Tennessee favored by nearly 2 touchdowns and unlike the games above, the computer says that is way too much having it at just under 4 points.  Tennessee's changes in coaching staff is certainly not factored in, but 2 touchdowns still seems like an awful lot.

In what should be the most competitive game on paper perhaps, FSU visits OU with both teams in the top-20.  Vegas doesn't think it will be that close though favoring OU by 10, but the computer likes them by less than 3.

Also in a game of ranked teams, Georgia visits South Carolina, the home team favored by just 2.5.  For this one, the computer likes them by just under 4 so give the points.

Enjoy the games!

And the 2011 Super Bowl Winner Is?

I posted the projected records for the 2010/2011 NFL season earlier, so the next natural step is to use those selected playoff teams to pick the playoff games and determine the chances of each team winning the Super Bowl.  So I went about doing so using my computer's end of last season ratings.

As projected, the seeds in the AFC would be San Diego, Indy, the Jets, Baltimore, New England, and Houston.  In the NFC they would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay, and Carolina. These are picked based on each teams most likely record given their upcoming schedule.

Plugging those teams in to a playoff bracket, the chances of each team getting to and winning the Super Bowl are then:

Team	Conference	Superbowl
New Orleans	0.476	0.287
San Diego	0.348	0.153
Indianapolis	0.306	0.142
Minnesota	0.269	0.141
NY Jets	0.136	0.062
Dallas	0.112	0.059
Baltimore	0.090	0.039
New England	0.085	0.039
Green Bay	0.063	0.031
Carolina	0.038	0.018
Arizona	0.041	0.017
Houston	0.035	0.013

As one might expect, using last years ratings where the Saints won it all, they are predicted to do so again even having to navigate a tougher schedule.  What is perhaps a surprise is that San Diego is listed as having the better chance to be their opponent than Indianapolis.

As always this early in the season, the ratings will change, the teams will not perform the same as last year, so the above is almost assured of being incorrect.  But it is still interesting to see and I'll post updates regularly.

2010 Week 1 College Football Recap; Boise St and TCU projected to be undefeated

What a great way to finish the first week of college football season.  Boise St. let the game slip away then snatched it back at the last minute.  Entertaining stuff.

And with the win, Boise St. moves up to #3 in the computers rankings and they are right behind TCU and not that far behind Alabama.  As noted earlier, trying to have accurate ratings after a single game is difficult at best but Boise St. certainly didn't hurt their chances with the win.  They now need Virginia Tech to play well the rest of the season.

As far as picking games, the computer went 24-13-1 against the spread and 31-7 picking winners versus Vegas going 33-4.  Considering the computer simply used last years end of season ratings, that isn't all bad.

With one game done, we can no update the regular season projections and see that both TCU and Boise St. are projected to finish undefeated.  That shouldn't be a big surprise given their schedules, particularly Boise St's.  They do have a 34% and 36% chance of one loss though so it isn't a done deal by any stretch.  Two teams, Alabama and Ohio State are projected to have a single loss and each has a decent chance at going undefeated at 38% and 24% respectively.

Stay tuned for preview of this weekends games and perhaps the first newsletter if I get enough subscribers.

Preliminary 2010 College Football Week 1 Prediction Performance; 23-11-1 against the spread!

I often times don't really pay attention to it since it is a bit of a game of luck early in the season, but this year I did check the computer's predictions against the spread in week 1 and was pleasantly surprised to see that it went 23-11-1 through yesterday's games.

These picks are done using last years end of season ratings as while not perfect, it is a much better starting point than treating all the teams the same.  So going 23-11-1 simply means that those ratings aren't all bad as a starting point.

Full week by week results from last year can be seen here.  The computer was at 57% against the spread and a stellar 78% on locks last year.

Stay tuned to this blog and the web-site for upcoming picks, and consider signing up for the newsletter if you want more info including best picks and locks.

Preliminary 2010 College Football Week 1 Ratings; Alabama staying #1, TCU up to #2

There are still a few more games that will be included in the week 1 ratings so these are not final, but I hate waiting for the last couple games so will discuss what we've seen thus far.  Of course, with just a single game played the ratings, and thus rankings, are very volatile and you are going to see teams winning and dropping or losing and rising.  At this point, a teams rating is 50% from their single game and 50% from last years rating.

See the full list of ratings on the web-site, but the top-25 are below.

Alabama stays #1 but drops a bunch of ratings points due to playing a very weak opponent.  It is also due to them having such a dominating margin over #2 Florida at the end of last year and Florida also dropping.  These drops are not uncommon and before fans of those schools panic, these games will carry very little weight in each teams rating as soon as they play a meaningful game so don't worry.  However Florida really didn't play well and probably deserves the drop.

TCU takes advantage of Florida dropping to move to #2 and Va Tech and Boise St. are close behind and will decide a lot tomorrow night.  Texas drops for similar reasons to Alabama and Florida leaving room for Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon to move up.

The big movers for the week are Michigan getting into the top-40 at #39, Virginia also doing the same at #40, South Carolina getting to #12, and Fresno State jumping to #32.

On the other side, UConn drops all the way to #72, Ole Miss to #57, Cincinnati to #45, and Richmond to #94.

Stay tuned for more!

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	87.980	1-0	55.082	+0, -5.267
2	TCU	84.965	1-0	75.769	+1, -0.195
3	Virginia Tech	83.722	0-0	0.000	+2, +0.000
4	Boise St	83.207	0-0	0.000	+2, +0.000
5	Ohio State	82.505	1-0	60.031	+3, +1.701
6	Florida	82.331	1-0	56.284	-4, -6.188
7	LSU	80.923	1-0	75.315	+2, +0.392
8	Oregon	80.496	1-0	50.214	+2, +0.202
9	Texas	79.953	1-0	60.759	-5, -4.908
10	Georgia Tech	78.546	1-0	55.041	+4, -0.401
11	Texas Tech	78.405	0-0	0.000	+6, -0.000
12	South Carolina	77.496	1-0	59.615	+28, +3.830
13	Arkansas	77.439	1-0	47.983	-6, -3.408
14	Pittsburgh	77.245	0-1	79.682	+7, -0.563
15	Wisconsin	76.727	1-0	63.933	+18, +2.280
16	Utah	76.682	1-0	74.245	+11, +0.563
17	Penn State	76.638	1-0	51.530	-2, -2.046
18	Georgia	76.617	1-0	51.507	+11, +0.898
19	Southern Cal	76.388	1-0	64.499	+7, +0.266
20	Arizona	76.378	1-0	58.592	+12, +1.551
21	Brigham Young	76.354	1-0	69.162	+1, -1.192
22	Iowa	75.917	1-0	50.730	-2, -2.115
23	Clemson	75.818	1-0	52.352	-5, -2.423
24	Oregon St	75.769	0-1	84.965	+7, +0.195
25	Miami FL	75.694	1-0	46.542	-6, -2.525

2010 Week 1 College Football Thoughts; Big games for Utah, USC, LSU, TCU, Boise State, Virginia Tech

With a few games played but some interesting one still to be played, here are a few observations and thoughts.  While I mention rankings from my computer below, keep in mind that they are from last year and so how teams do will tell us a bit about how they compare to that ranking and where they should be this year.  Stay tuned for the updated rankings after Monday nights game.

See the weekly predictions for more info and subscribe to the newsletter for detailed pick information.

First, from Thursday, there were a few meaningful games.

The big one was Utah beating Pitt in overtime 27-24.  They were rated fairly close to end last season (Pitt #21 and Utah #27) so the computer had Utah winning by 1.3 being at home, so it got that right, but it was big for Utah's hopes of somehow sneaking into BCS consideration.  They have TCU, Notre Dame, and BYU on their schedule so should they win out they'd certainly be justified of being considered.

USC answered some questions about their offense, but their defense didn't look so good and they were unable to cover the 21 points winning by 13, but that is about what the computer predicted having them by 11.4.  So they'll likely stay about where they were which was #26.

Today so far, there haven't been any too terribly interesting games but Florida and Texas perhaps didn't win as convincingly as one would have thought.  The computer had Florida winning by 38 so their 22 point win will likely drop them a bit.  And the computer had Texas by 29 so 17 will likely drop them some too.

The late games today see LSU and UNC playing, the computer picking LSU by 4.8.  With LSU #9 coming in from last year, this could say a lot about their potential to contend this year.

Also playing tonight is Oregon State and TCU.  This is TCU's big non-conference game so there is pressure on them to perform as this could determine whether or not they vie for BCS consideration.  The computer likes TCU by about 10 so look for them to try to top that to impress voters.

And the big game of the week is Boise State traveling back east to take on Virginia Tech.  With both teams in the top-10 of the polls this year and #6 and #5 respectively from last years final computer ratings, this is a biggie.  The computer likes Virginia Tech by a smidge, but that is based on last years ratings of course and this will certainly determine the fate of both teams BCS hopes.

And the 2010 College Football Season Begins

The division I-A, ok FBS, season began last night with several games and gets into full swing this weekend.  My computer simply uses last years end of season ratings to start the year which isn't perfect, but it is better than treating all teams the same to start the year.  That means that Alabama starts the year a clear #1 over Florida.

Because I use last years ratings to start, I generally don't expect the computer to pick games very well the first few weeks and thus don't count those, but I've still posted predictions for this weekends games.

But what is perhaps more interesting is seeing what the computer projects for end of season records.  This is basically saying what record each team should end up with if they play to last years performance against this years schedule.  The full list can be found here, but two teams are projected to finish undefeated, TCU and Alabama, with Boise State, Texas, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Florida are projected to finish with 1 loss.  However, the winner of the Boise State / Va Tech game this weekend could be projected to be undefeated too.

For comparison, after 1 week last year, the projections for the regular season were:

• Boise State 13-0 (finished 13-0)
• Florida 12-0 (12-0)
• Penn State 11-1 (10-2)
• Alabama 11-1 (12-0)
• Cincinnati 11-1 (12-0)
• USC 11-1 (8-3)

Other than USC, nearly spot on.

In any case, stay tuned for more here and updates on the web-site.