Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men, and 3.0 Men and Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.5+ Men:

Location	Average
TEXAS / AUSTIN	4.60
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - MA	4.59
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.58
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	4.57
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	4.57
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - SA	4.57
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	4.57
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	4.56
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	4.55
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	4.54
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	4.53
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	4.52
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	4.52
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	4.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	4.51
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.51
TEXAS / AUSTIN	4.51
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.50

Being a plus league, you would expect the top teams to have averages over 4.5 and this is the case here with nearly the entire top-20 being at 4.51 or higher.

Three different areas in Texas find themselves in the top-4 and five more Texas teams are in the top-20.  Sectionals could be brutal.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men, and 3.0 Men, now the 3.0 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Women:

Location	Average
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.10
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - EB	3.09
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - SOUTHERN CRESCENT - 2016	3.08
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LOUISVILLE	3.07
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LOUISVILLE	3.06
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.06
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY	3.06
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.05
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / VENTURA COUNTY	3.05
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.05
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / COLUMBUS	3.05
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.04
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	3.04
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - SA	3.04
TEXAS / AUSTIN	3.03
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - SHOALS - 2016	3.03
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	3.03
TEXAS / AUSTIN	3.02
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.0 - LP	3.02
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.02

It is not uncommon to see more players rated above the top of their level in the lower NTRP levels, but what we see here is that and more with every team in the top-20 having a top-8 average over 3.0!

It looks like just getting to Southern Sectionals will be a challenge with 4 teams from Georgia in the top-12.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women and Men, now the 3.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

Location	Average
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 2016	3.10
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON	3.09
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / CHARLESTON	3.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2016	3.01
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2016	3.00
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LEXINGTON	2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - EB	2.98
TEXAS / DALLAS	2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - DN	2.96
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON	2.96
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SF	2.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY	2.96
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2016	2.95
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2016	2.95
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 2016	2.95
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	2.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY	2.95
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON	2.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SB	2.95
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON	2.95

It is not uncommon to see more players rated above the top of their level in the lower NTRP levels, and the result here is 4 teams with top-8 averages over 3.0.

Southern is represented well but PNW and both NorCal and SoCal show up several times too.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women, now the 4.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

Location	Average
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2016	4.04
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.01
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2016	4.00
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SF	4.00
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	4.00
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.99
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.99
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / SOUTH MIAMI/DADE	3.98
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - MOBILE 2016	3.98
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	3.98
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / VENTURA COUNTY	3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 2	3.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 2	3.97
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 1	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 2	3.97
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan	3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	3.96

Just two teams have top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, but this group is deep with #20 coming in at 3.96.  It appears there are a lot of strong 4.0 teams this year.

And Northern has two of the top three teams, specifically Mineapolis/St. Paul.  But this may be essentially the same team in different seasons.  After that, it is a mix of teams from a cross section of areas.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, now the 4.0 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Women:

Location	Average
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - LP - 1	4.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	4.01
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / BEACH CITIES	3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - MP - 2	3.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA	3.96
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / LOS ANGELES	3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan	3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - SB - 2	3.94
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - NEW ORLEANS	3.94
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.93
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.93
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.93
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.92
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA	3.92
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.92
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY	3.92
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.92

As we've seen at the 3.5 level, there are once again a few teams with top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, although the NorCal and Georgia teams are just barely over.  And the #20 team is very strong still with a 3.92 top-8 average.

But Southern Cal dominates this list with a full 30% of the top-20.  NorCal has 3 teams and Southern as 4 with 3 of those from Georgia and specifically Atlanta.  The road to Southern Sectionals could be tough.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.5 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men, now the 3.5 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 3.5 Women:

Location	Average
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.53
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	3.52
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON	3.51
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.50
FLORIDA / REGION_7 / COLLIER	3.50
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.49
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2016	3.49
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN ARIZONA	3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - SB - 1	3.49
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / COACHELLA VALLEY	3.49
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA	3.48
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA	3.48
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - MA - 2	3.48
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	3.47
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 3.5 - MA - 2	3.47
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.47
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.47
FLORIDA / REGION_7 / COLLIER	3.47
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2016	3.47
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	3.46

The women also have several teams with top-8 averages over 3.5.  Not quite as much over, and the #20 team is at 3.46 vs the men's 3.48, but still a bunch of strong teams.

Southern teams similarly show up here, and Florida and Texas have 4 of the top 6, but the Pacific Northwest and New England are representing too.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  We'll start with the 3.5 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 3.5 Men:

Location	Average
TEXAS / AUSTIN	3.57
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.53
TEXAS / DALLAS	3.53
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2016	3.51
TEXAS / FORT WORTH	3.51
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	3.51
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP	3.50
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 2016	3.50
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.50
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	3.50
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 2016	3.50
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.50
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - MA - 1	3.49
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY	3.49
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 2016	3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - EB	3.49
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP	3.48
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / INLAND EMPIRE	3.48

Yes, there are 3.5 teams with top-8 averages over 3.5.  This happens where a team of strong 3.5s plays well and improves their ratings as a result of their play.  This sometimes happens due to players really being 4.0s and having tanked matches to get to 3.5, but it happens naturally where players simply are improving too so does not mean these teams have sandbagging or cheating players on their rosters.

Southern states are well represented here as leagues have started there earlier than other areas, but some cold weather states that play indoors show up too.

Texas holding the top three spots and Dallas with two teams at 3.53 leads the way and it will be a dog-fight to just win the local area.  But the rest of the teams nationally are close, #20 only being back at 3.48.

Naturally these ratings can change throughout the season, and self-rated players that get ratings can influence things or players that are DQ'd and not eligible could inflate ratings too.  I try to exclude ineligible players from the stats but that is sometimes difficult to determine.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!