NFL Week 12 Projected Records - The picture gets muddier

The projected records after week 12 are now posted and listed below as well.

What was a pretty clear playoff picture has become a little cloudier.

The division leaders are still very solid.  With Green Bay's loss, Chicago is now projected as the winner in the NFC North and with Dallas' loss, the Giants control the NFC East.  And Pittsburgh's loss gives control of the AFC North to Baltimore.  But the wildcards are a different story.

In the NFC where the two teams were expected to be the Green Bay/Chicago non-division winner and Seattle comfortably, it is now Green Bay still comfortably but Seattle with just a 1 game cushion over 4 teams at 8-8.  This could get interesting.

And in the AFC, where it was fairly clear it would be the Baltimore/Pittsburgh non-division winner and a surprising Indianapolis, those two teams now find themselves in a dead heat with Cincinnati all at 9-7.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	39.3	15.9	31.6
Atlanta	14-2	33.7	13.3	33.2
Denver	12-4	47.5	31.7	18.2
Baltimore	12-4	34.3	21.0	27.5
San Francisco	11-4	36.4	27.8	21.7
New England	11-5	33.6	33.2	16.4
Chicago	11-5	34.7	26.6	22.4
Green Bay	10-6	35.9	32.5	17.3
NY Giants	10-6	37.0	23.2	26.1
Seattle	9-7	37.6	26.4	23.1
Indianapolis	9-7	38.8	25.0	23.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	37.0	20.1	28.6
Cincinnati	9-7	33.3	17.9	29.9
Tampa Bay	8-8	36.1	35.7	12.4
Washington	8-8	34.8	22.9	25.8
Dallas	8-8	37.1	21.7	27.3
Minnesota	8-8	34.9	18.4	31.2
Miami	7-9	37.7	27.7	21.0
New Orleans	7-9	36.9	24.3	24.9
NY Jets	7-9	34.2	21.2	27.2
San Diego	7-9	35.0	18.1	30.4
Buffalo	7-9	32.7	16.1	31.5
St Louis	6-9	35.7	23.7	25.4
Detroit	6-10	36.5	25.5	23.7
Tennessee	6-10	36.7	22.2	27.2
Carolina	6-10	34.6	16.8	31.7
Arizona	5-11	34.8	34.3	12.6
Cleveland	5-11	42.3	27.5	22.1
Oakland	5-11	36.4	15.2	35.1
Philadelphia	4-12	42.4	22.3	29.4
Jacksonville	3-13	34.5	32.7	14.1
Kansas City	2-14	41.9	25.9	24.7

NFL Week 12 Ratings and Rankings - Houston and New England remain 1 and 2

The ratings after week 12 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston stays #1 but New England has narrowed the gap, and the 49ers edge ahead of the Broncos.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	88.823	10-1	80.056	+0, -0.515
2	New England	88.519	8-3	80.706	+0, +0.525
3	San Francisco	87.631	8-2-1	81.243	+1, +0.128
4	Denver	87.339	8-3	80.995	-1, -0.481
5	Chicago	85.542	8-3	80.752	+3, +0.583
6	Atlanta	85.357	10-1	79.101	+0, +0.073
7	Green Bay	85.076	7-4	82.259	-2, -2.072
8	NY Giants	84.852	7-4	80.781	+2, +1.943
9	Baltimore	84.368	9-2	79.585	+0, +0.379
10	Seattle	84.031	6-5	82.051	-3, -1.030
11	Tampa Bay	82.719	6-5	79.350	+0, -0.181
12	Washington	81.388	5-6	81.261	+5, +1.200
13	Cincinnati	81.312	6-5	78.913	+5, +1.176
14	Pittsburgh	81.209	6-5	79.372	-2, -0.734
15	Dallas	80.839	5-6	82.426	-1, -0.647
16	Minnesota	80.685	6-5	80.416	-3, -0.965
17	New Orleans	80.465	5-6	80.275	-2, -0.651
18	St Louis	80.203	4-6-1	82.196	+4, +1.041
19	Detroit	79.877	4-7	81.759	+0, -0.205
20	NY Jets	79.862	4-7	82.903	-4, -0.757
21	Miami	79.528	5-6	80.071	+2, +0.374
22	San Diego	79.488	4-7	79.892	-2, -0.323
23	Carolina	79.487	3-8	82.363	+1, +0.605
24	Indianapolis	78.716	7-4	79.599	+2, +0.445
25	Buffalo	78.226	4-7	82.079	+0, -0.607
26	Arizona	77.852	4-7	81.836	-5, -1.670
27	Cleveland	77.352	3-8	80.494	+1, +1.357
28	Tennessee	76.081	4-7	81.588	-1, -0.728
29	Jacksonville	73.858	2-9	81.224	+2, +0.724
30	Philadelphia	73.739	3-8	80.913	-1, -0.452
31	Oakland	72.809	3-8	80.876	-1, -0.700
32	Kansas City	70.990	1-10	80.889	+0, +0.400

USTA 2012 year end ratings are out - How did my Estimated Dynamic NTRP do?

It turns out that despite the lack of a notice on TennisLink, year-end ratings are in fact being published today and they have even done so well in advance of the traditional 5pm.  With that, TennisLink is now enduring its peak load for the year as we all check to see if we or our prospective teammates have been bumped up/down so we can know how to assemble our teams for 2013.

I've been generating Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports for anyone interested in a preview of what their year-end rating may be and the details behind it and with a number of reports done, it is now time to compare what I estimated with what year-end ratings ended up being.

Of all the reports I did, 79% estimated the player to be at the right level.  But I consider being within 0.05 to be an acceptable margin for error considering it is just an estimate and an additional 9% or 88% total fell within this range.  Of the remaining 12%, I had 3% estimated too high and 9% estimated too low.

All those I estimated too high were self-rates that went to playoffs, so since I don't attempt to estimate the benchmark part of the calculation, I don't feel too bad about missing here.  And I did correctly estimate a self-rate being bumped down so I don't think I have a general problem with overrating self-rated players.

Of those I estimated too low, one went to playoffs (benchmark calculation likely kicked in) and one was just 0.07 from being estimated to be bumped up and also went to playoffs (benchmark calculation kicked in), so I don't feel too bad about these.

So I'll take 88% accuracy where most of the misses have explanations that I actually commented on being possible in the report I generated.

Even though ratings are out, if you want to know why your rating is where it is, I am still generating reports so contact me if you are interested.

Update 12/20: More reports have been generated and the accuracy is now at 92%.

When will USTA NTRP Year End Ratings be out? Get a report while you wait

[this post was for 2012 year-end ratings, click here to see information for 2013]

Many people are expecting that the USTA will publish year-end ratings tomorrow at 5pm, but TennisLink doesn't seem to be announcing that like prior years.  The speculation is based on it being the Monday after Thanksgiving which is when the ratings typically come out, but this year, Thanksgiving is the earliest it can be making the Monday after only November 26th.  So, it could be that they won't be ready until the following Monday December 3rd.

If that is the case, we'll all have to wait an extra week, but that also gives everyone another 7 days to get a preview and details of what goes into their rating from an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report.

An example of a report is below.  It shows the current NTRP level of the player, what their Estimated Dynamic NTRP is (what I calculate), some match/set/game statistics, the best and worst match results and dates of the match, and the highest and lowest Estimated Dynamic NTRP and corresponding dates.

But the cool part is the chart that shows each match rating and what the Estimated Dynamic NTRP is as a result of the match.  This allows you to see specifics about matches and trends throughout the year.


Jane Doe
Current NTRP: 3.0
Estimated DNTRP: 2.76
Match Record: 4-8
Sets Won-Lost: 13-16
Games Won-Lost: 112-117
Best Match Result: 3.04 on 2012-03-18
Worst Match Result: 2.53 on 2012-03-11
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 2.86 on 2012-01-29
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 2.73 on 2012-03-11

I've done reports for players in the Pacific Northwest, Southern Cal, Northern Cal, Inter-Mountain, Texas, Midwest, Southern, Florida Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast sections but should be able to do for most any section.

Contact me to learn more or if you have any questions.

The voters who dropped Oregon after 24 point win on road against #16 - East Coast or anti-Oregon bias?

In analyzing the AP poll, I discovered that Oregon lost 4 points while Florida gained 91 and moved ahead of them.  This after both won on the road against similar opponents (Oregon State was and still is #16, Florida State was #10 and is now #13), Oregon winning far more convincingly (by 24 vs 11 and Oregon game wasn't in doubt late, FSU had a chance in the 4th quarter).

To understand how this happened, I looked for the voters that flipped the two teams and here they are:

• Axe - Moved Florida from 7 to 5 and dropped Oregon from 6 to 7.
• Bohls - Moved Florida from 7 to 6 and dropped Oregon from 3 to 7!
• Cripe - Moved Florida from 6 to 3 and dropped Oregon from 4 to 7.
• Emerson - Swapped the teams at 5 and 6.
• Fowler - Moved Florida from 6 to 4 and dropped Oregon from 5 to 7.
• Giglio - Moved Florida 5 to 2 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Gimino - Moved Florida 6 to 4 and kept Oregon at 5.
• Hlas - Moved Florida 7 to 2 and kept Oregon at 4.
• Hurt - Moved Florida 7 to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Lesmerises - Moved Florida 5 to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 6.
• Marcello - Swapped the teams at 5 and 6.
• Murray - Moved Florida 6 to 3 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.
• Staples - Moved Florida 12(!) to 4 and dropped Oregon 4 to 5.

Some of these moves are to put it bluntly, baffling.  Bohls thought Oregon was still #3 last week, and they go out and beat Oregon State by 24 on the road and drop them 4 spots?  And he actually moves Oregon state up from #19 to #18 with the loss?

Staples thought FSU was a top-5 team (had them #5 last week) despite all the evidence to the contrary, and when proved wrong with Florida beat them, moves Florida, who he had #12 all the way to #4, higher than the overrated FSU team.

It was pointed out to me that Oregon's game was televised only regionally while Florida's was nationally televised, and I can understand the general public being swayed by that, but I thought the AP voters could be held to a higher standard.

Analyzing the 11/25/12 AP Poll - Bias against Oregon?

Here is week 13 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 13 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

The top-4 remain the same this week with very little change for each.  Alabama gained 1 point, Georgia 15, and Ohio State 2.  Where it gets interesting is behind them.

Last week Oregon was #5 with a 75 point lead over #6 Florida.  This week, Florida turned that around to a 20 point lead over Oregon.  Oregon beat a then and still #16 Oregon State on the road by 24 and actually lost 4 points.  That isn't to say that Florida didn't do well, they did win by 11 on the road against a then #10 and now #13 FSU.  But both win on road against similar competition, and the team that wins by more loses points while the one that wins by less gains 91?  There seems to be some serious bias against Oregon with these voters.  Oregon even got a 2nd place vote this week, they didn't last, and lost points.

Ohio State still has the largest spread of the top teams garnering 2nd to 12th place votes.  You have to drop all the way to Stanford to get to the next team getting a 12th place vote.  And like last week, Texas A&M is getting a 2nd place vote ahead of a bunch of 1-loss (and Ohio State with no losses) teams.

College Football Week 13 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Oregon stays #1 this week, in fact increasing their lead over Alabama who also improved slightly.  Florida improves the most of any team in the top-10 and moves ahead of Texas A&M to #3.

Oregon's improvement is largely from their win over a good Oregon State team while Alabama played a weak Auburn team but benefited from the SEC winning in general over some non-SEC opponents (Florida over FSU, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson).  And while Florida improved their rating the most, Georgia made the biggest move up to #7, up 4 spots.

What about Notre Dame?  Their rating did improve after their win over USC and they are up to #5, but my computer still says they aren't the best team in the country.

The BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings do have Notre Dame on top and they are followed by Florida and Ohio State, with Oregon up to #4 ahead of Alabama at #5.  A computer that can't take margin of victory into account has to ding Alabama for a weak Auburn opponent while Oregon benefits from a strong Oregon State team.  We'll see what the actual BCS computers do later today.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	93.983	11-1	73.073	+0, +1.273
2	Alabama	91.672	11-1	71.655	+0, +0.408
3	Florida	89.288	11-1	75.872	+1, +2.240
4	Texas A&M	88.393	10-2	74.031	-1, +1.033
5	Notre Dame	87.977	12-0	73.981	+1, +1.527
6	Kansas St	87.369	10-1	73.988	-1, +0.341
7	Georgia	87.079	11-1	71.780	+4, +1.798
8	Stanford	86.419	10-2	77.222	+1, +0.892
9	South Carolina	86.368	10-2	73.698	+3, +2.063
10	LSU	85.709	10-2	74.194	-2, +0.075
11	Oklahoma	85.225	9-2	73.541	-1, -0.186
12	Oregon St	84.398	8-3	78.310	-5, -1.845
13	Oklahoma St	83.737	7-4	72.357	+2, -0.014
14	Ohio State	83.354	12-0	69.689	+0, -0.444
15	Southern Cal	82.831	7-5	76.039	-2, -1.393
16	Utah St	81.936	10-2	66.110	+2, -0.504
17	Florida St	81.475	10-2	64.626	-1, -1.868
18	Texas	81.228	8-3	74.529	-1, -1.503
19	Nebraska	81.047	10-2	70.493	+2, -0.494
20	Clemson	80.228	10-2	67.731	+0, -2.070
21	Arizona St	80.176	7-5	74.041	+4, +0.890
22	Arizona	80.138	7-5	75.060	-3, -2.163
23	Baylor	80.088	6-5	76.182	+0, +0.663
24	Michigan	79.775	8-4	72.775	+0, +0.429
25	UCLA	79.677	9-3	73.924	-3, -1.745