Early 2010 NFL Season Projections

The NFL schedule came out yesterday which means I can now plug it in to my computer to see what it projects for the regular season ending records.  The full projections are below, but first a little explanation and commentary.

First, these projections are based on the final ratings from the 2009/10 season.  So they assume the teams performance will on average be unchanged, but clearly some teams will improve, others won't, and injuries will be a factor as well.  But these projections are still useful as last years rating is a good starting point and the projections do take into account the specific schedule of each team.

Second, how do these projections work?  For each game, the computer predicts the chance of a team winning that game based on last years rating, the opponent, and where the game is played, and then looks at every permutation of how a team could achieve every record from 0-16 to 16-0 and the chance of that occurring, then it identifies the record that has the highest probability of occurring.  This is what appears in the Record column along with the chance of that record in the % chance column.  Since it does compute the probability of every record, I also include the probability of a team winning and losing one more game but have the full range of probabilities if anyone is interested.

With that out of the way, what does it project?  It says that New Orleans and San Diego will lead the league at 11-5 with 6 teams close behind at 10-6.  Even more (7) teams will be just behind at 9-7 making it 15 teams vying for 12 playoff spots.  At the bottom, St. Louis and Detroit will still be the cellar dwellers, but again, this doesn't take into account them presumably improving with their top picks in the draft.

You might ask, why is New Orleans only projected to go 11-5 after going 13-3 last year?  And why a 4 game drop-off for Indy after they went 14-2 last year?  Part of it is tougher schedules as these teams get the (in theory) toughest being the Super Bowl teams from last year, and part of it, particularly in Indy's case, is that they eked out a bunch of their wins last year and thus overachieved a bit and so they could easily have been a few games worse last year.  Look for another blog entry on schedule strengths soon.

But also, by looking at the table below, there is quite a good chance that New Orleans will go 12-4 (20.8%) and even a 13 win season has a 14% chance so still very well within the realm of possibility.  An undefeated season you ask?  That comes in at only 0.23%.

Will the records below happen as is?  Highly unlikely, but it is still fun to look at them as a baseline.  If you think your team will improve more than the rest of the league (or their schedule), then add a game or two.  If not, perhaps subtract a game or two.

And while the records are interesting, in the end what matters is who makes the playoffs.  So I've put the AFC teams in red and NFC teams in blue with the division winners also in bold.  Where the record is the same, I break the tie by giving it to the team with the higher chance of finishing one game better.

If things play out this way, the week 17 games that could be especially meaningful are:

• Carolina at Atlanta - Both projected at 9-7 but only one likely to make the playoffs
• Dallas at Philly - Dallas projected at 10-6 against Philly's 9-7, and Philly might not get in at 9-7 so could be a swing game
• Arizona at San Francisco - Both projected at 9-7 and one likely the division winner, but that team also possibly so only one to get in the playoffs

What do you think?  Will your team do better?  Worse?  Leave a comment!

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New Orleans	11-5	22.1	20.8	17.4
San Diego	11-5	21.1	16.4	20.2
Minnesota	10-6	21.6	19.9	17.6
Indianapolis	10-6	20.7	19.9	16.6
Dallas	10-6	21.5	18.9	18.5
NY Jets	10-6	20.7	18.1	18.2
Green Bay	10-6	21.3	17.5	19.6
New England	10-6	20.3	16.5	19.2
Baltimore	9-7	20.4	20.1	15.9
Carolina	9-7	20.0	20.0	15.6
Philadelphia	9-7	20.0	19.5	15.9
Atlanta	9-7	20.5	18.8	17.2
Arizona	9-7	21.1	17.8	18.9
San Francisco	9-7	20.9	16.9	19.7
Houston	9-7	20.1	16.1	19.4
Pittsburgh	8-8	20.5	19.3	16.8
Denver	8-8	20.5	18.5	17.5
Miami	8-8	21.3	17.5	19.6
Tennessee	8-8	20.1	16.6	18.9
Buffalo	8-8	20.6	16.5	19.7
NY Giants	8-8	20.4	16.3	19.6
Cincinnati	7-9	20.4	19.5	16.4
Chicago	7-9	21.3	17.2	19.9
Tampa Bay	7-9	21.4	16.8	20.5
Jacksonville	6-10	20.5	19.9	16.1
Kansas City	6-10	20.5	19.5	16.6
Washington	6-10	20.6	19.4	16.8
Seattle	6-10	21.1	17.6	19.2
Oakland	6-10	21.1	16.6	20.3
Cleveland	5-11	21.8	18.6	19.1
St Louis	4-12	22.7	20.5	18.2
Detroit	3-13	26.4	17.8	25.7

NCAA Tournament Final System and Poll Comparison

And Duke wins it all.  And with no poll or system picking them, there aren't any big scores for any system/poll, but I am pleased to see that my computer eked out the best score beating Sagarin by 2 points.

System/Poll	Points
Schmidt Computer	89
Sagarin	87
Coaches	73
RPI	69
AP	68
Seeds	62
Vegas	61

The difference between my computer and Sagarin ultimately was my computer having Butler getting to the sweet 16 and Sagarin having them losing in the second round.  The big difference against the rest was the my computer and Sagarin both had Baylor getting to the Elite Eight (AP, Coaches, Seeds, Vegas had Villanova) and Sagarin and my computer had Duke getting to the final.

I'd like to think this proves my computer did a better job ranking and ratings teams than the polls or Vegas, but it is just one year.  But I'll do this again next year and share it all again.

College Basketball Rankings through 3/28/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/28 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Three of the final four are in the computer's top 9, but Michigan State is the outlier, not Butler, at #22.  And it appears Vegas sees it the same way with Butler being the pick.  Last week I said the computer liked Duke better than Kentucky as the pick to win it all, and it was proven right, at least thus far with Duke making it and Kentucky losing to WVU.

After the hot start in the first two rounds (29-19 against the spread), the computer stayed cool in the third round going 2-5-1 against the spread, but rebounded in the Elite Eight going 3-1.  For the tournament, it is now 35-25-1.  A summary of picks and previews are available here and here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
2	Duke	94.950	33-5	82.336	+0, +0.703
7	West Virginia	92.149	31-6	83.548	+1, +0.809
9	Butler	90.327	32-4	80.382	+5, +1.152
22	Michigan St	88.085	28-8	81.488	+6, +0.415

College Basketball Rankings through 3/21/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/21 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Only Kansas and Texas A&M are top-10 teams that are missing from the sweet 16 and Cornell at #34 is the lowest ranked team still in.  So a pretty quality field even with some of the upsets and missing teams.  The computer has Duke being the highest rated team still in but Kentucky now seems to be the pick of all the prognosticators.

The computer had a fantastic first round predicting, going 25-7 picking winners and 22-10 against the spread while Vegas went only 19-13 picking winners.  Round 2 didn't go as well at 7-9 against the spread and 11-5 on winners with Vegas 10-6 on winners.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
2	Duke	94.247	31-5	81.833	+0, +0.195
3	Syracuse	93.106	30-4	80.966	+0, +0.021
4	Kentucky	92.582	34-2	80.312	+1, +0.839
5	Kansas St	92.522	27-7	83.312	-1, +0.547
6	Baylor	91.680	26-7	81.687	+0, +0.174
7	Ohio State	91.396	29-7	80.280	+1, +0.036
8	West Virginia	91.340	29-6	83.243	-1, -0.141
10	Purdue	89.467	29-5	81.219	+4, -0.001
14	Butler	89.175	30-4	79.540	+6, +0.780
16	Xavier OH	88.948	26-8	81.083	+3, +0.508
19	St Mary's CA	88.346	27-5	78.002	+8, +0.573
22	Washington	88.062	26-9	80.495	+7, +0.465
25	Northern Iowa	87.808	30-4	78.886	+5, +0.430
26	Tennessee	87.698	27-8	81.222	+7, +0.649
28	Michigan St	87.670	26-8	81.108	-3, -0.274
34	Cornell NY	86.699	27-4	76.238	+29, +2.633

NCAA Tournament Round 2 System and Poll Comparison

With round 2 of the NCAA Tournament complete, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	49	-64
Schmidt Computer	45	-60
AP	44	-64
Sagarin	43	-60
RPI	41	-64
Seeds	38	-64
Vegas	37	-64

And again, the coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer is a clear #2 and could be tied in a way as the coaches poll has already lost Villanova getting to the elite eight while my computer has Baylor getting there.

The AP and Sagarin are close behind but like the coaches, the AP is already losing points for Villanova. After a quick start the RPI has fallen behind and the tournament committee and Vegas are bringing up the rear.

More to come later.

The computer cleans up NCAA first round against the spread

I've been focused on comparing my computer's bracket with other polls and systems but I've also been tracking how its predictions are doing against the spread and in the first round, it cleaned up.

Of the 32 first round games, the computer went a very nice 25-7 picking winners but a perhaps more astounding 22-10 against the spread.  It has slowed down a bit so far in the second round going 7-2 picking winners but only 4-5 against the spread.

Stay tuned for more and get the picks in advance by subscribing to the newsletter.

NCAA Tournament Round 1.5 System and Poll Comparison

After the first day of round 2 of the NCAA Tournament, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	37	-66
Schmidt Computer	33	-60
RPI	33	-64
AP	32	-66
Sagarin	31	-60
Seeds	28	-64
Vegas	27	-64

The coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer has moved into the #2 slot tied with the RPI but having lost fewer future points.  The AP takes a step up over Sagarin while the Seeds and Vegas are still trailing.

Given that everyone had Kansas winning it all, there are a bunch of future lost points there (60) but my computer and Sagarin have only those lost points.  The Coaches poll on the other hand has already lost Temple today and Villanova in the next round.