2012 NCAA Tournament Observations and Potential Upsets

I posted my computer's full ratings and as well as who my computer says should have made the 68-team field earlier today.  But now it is time to look at who actually made the field and see what observations can be made and what we can learn from them.  The full list of teams with my computer's ratings is below.

First, it is always fun to look at the seeding and see how things panned out.  At the top, my computer agrees with 3 of the #1 seeds and 3 of the #2 seeds.  It says Syracuse should have been a #2 and Ohio State the #1, and then Duke is too high as a #2 and Memphis should have replaced them.  So all in all, not that far off here.

So where was the seeding way off?

Belmont is the most underrated team being a #14 seed, but my computer ranks them #27 which says they should have been around a #7 seed.  They play a #3 seed in Georgetown that is seeded slightly high (ranked #17 should have been a #5 seed) so this game is a potential upset.

Memphis is a #8 seed but being ranked #8 by my computer says they should have been a #2 seed.

St. Louis and Long Beach State are also small conference teams getting no respect as my computer ranks them #19 and #33, worthy of #5 and #9 seeds, but they received #9 and #12 seeds.

On the other side of things, Montana got in with their conferences automatic bid, but ranked #88 should have been around a #15 seed but received a #13 seed ahead of some at-large teams my computer ranks well ahead of them.

Southern Miss, somehow gets a #9 seed but being ranked #67 shouldn't have even been a bubble team let alone make the tournament.  I may eat crow on this, but do not pick them as one of your #9 upsets #8 seed games.

Colorado State also shouldn't have made it as an #11 seed being ranked #71.  Don't look for them to pull the upset of Murray State either.

San Diego State gets a #6 seed but being ranked #44 should have had more like a #12 seed.  The committee set them up to fail having to play #49 NC State, good upset chance here.

Notre Dame and Temple are a bit high at #7 and #5 respectively, as they are ranked #40 and #32 more in line with a #10 and #8 seed.

What do you think?

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kentucky	87.688	32-2	73.497	+0, -1.560
2	Michigan St	86.530	27-7	75.276	+2, +0.691
3	Ohio State	86.306	27-7	74.682	+2, +0.614
4	North Carolina	85.856	29-5	73.825	-2, -1.013
5	Kansas	85.262	27-6	75.069	-2, -0.849
6	Missouri	85.045	30-4	72.937	+1, +1.224
7	Syracuse	84.534	31-2	73.480	-1, -0.672
8	Memphis	83.226	26-8	72.864	+3, +0.904
9	Wichita St	82.856	26-5	71.967	-1, -0.208
10	Indiana	82.468	25-8	73.863	-1, -0.476
11	Vanderbilt	82.145	24-10	74.450	+9, +1.286
12	Baylor	82.034	26-7	74.585	+2, +0.206
13	Duke	81.894	27-6	75.163	-3, -0.590
14	Wisconsin	81.863	24-9	74.377	-1, -0.104
15	Louisville	81.710	26-9	74.378	+9, +1.650
16	Marquette	81.507	25-7	74.091	-4, -0.676
17	Georgetown DC	81.154	22-8	74.322	+1, -0.023
18	New Mexico	81.052	26-6	70.889	+3, +0.656
19	St Louis U.	81.045	24-7	71.787	-4, -0.659
20	Florida	80.995	23-10	74.278	-1, +0.095
21	Kansas St	80.694	21-10	74.094	-4, -0.510
22	Michigan	80.591	23-9	75.411	-6, -0.790
23	Florida St	80.452	24-9	74.404	+9, +1.144
24	Gonzaga	79.856	25-6	70.251	-2, -0.473
25	Iowa St	79.674	22-10	73.698	-2, -0.572
26	Creighton	79.586	28-5	71.435	+0, -0.167
27	Belmont	79.528	26-7	69.833	+1, -0.041
28	Murray St	79.477	27-1	68.534	+1, -0.059
29	UNLV	79.171	24-8	71.982	-4, -0.654
30	Texas	79.159	20-13	74.756	+1, -0.324
31	Virginia	79.124	22-9	71.795	-1, -0.371
32	Temple	79.075	24-7	73.768	-5, -0.650
33	Long Beach St	79.049	23-8	70.979	+3, +0.152
34	Cincinnati	79.012	24-10	72.603	+4, +0.461
35	Purdue	78.998	21-12	74.341	-1, -0.265
36	Alabama	78.952	21-11	74.083	-3, -0.322
37	St Mary's CA	78.593	25-5	69.489	+2, +0.106
38	Connecticut	78.463	20-13	74.596	+4, +0.505
39	California	78.369	24-9	71.122	-4, -0.881
40	Notre Dame	78.366	22-11	73.470	-3, -0.482
42	West Virginia	78.091	19-13	74.264	-1, -0.272
43	VA Commonwealth	77.982	28-6	69.791	+0, +0.073
44	San Diego St	77.509	24-7	71.409	+0, -0.208
45	Harvard	77.441	25-4	69.556	+2, -0.028
46	New Mexico St	77.303	24-9	69.409	+13, +0.587
49	North Carolina St	77.225	22-12	72.929	+12, +0.617
51	South Florida	77.171	19-13	74.445	-2, +0.109
53	St Bonaventure	76.847	20-11	71.963	+19, +0.855
54	Brigham Young	76.784	23-8	69.788	-4, -0.242
56	Xavier OH	76.718	21-12	73.939	-1, -0.040
57	Iona	76.660	25-7	69.323	-3, -0.103
59	Ohio U.	76.618	26-7	69.479	-2, -0.101
62	South Dakota St	76.523	25-7	68.956	-4, -0.195
67	Southern Miss	75.968	23-8	72.836	-7, -0.699
70	Davidson	75.798	24-7	68.300	-2, -0.479
71	Colorado St	75.795	20-11	72.550	+2, -0.107
77	Lehigh	75.398	25-7	66.579	+5, +0.352
85	Colorado	74.650	21-11	72.002	+20, +1.047
88	Montana	74.543	23-6	66.465	+2, +0.125
98	Lamar	73.923	21-11	68.848	+16, +0.834
103	Detroit Mercy	73.668	20-13	70.010	+13, +0.635
122	UNC-Asheville	72.509	21-9	67.032	+4, -0.086
125	Loyola-Maryland	72.325	24-8	68.357	+7, +0.096
129	Vermont	72.089	23-11	66.344	+17, +0.635
147	LIU-Brooklyn	71.205	25-8	66.390	+13, +0.591
180	Norfolk St	68.984	24-8	66.027	+1, -0.034
186	Western Kentucky	68.661	15-18	70.000	+19, +0.792
227	Mississippi Valley St	66.609	21-12	66.358	-6, -0.477

Who should have made the 68 team 2012 NCAA Tournament - Miami, Drexel, Tennessee, Seton Hall, and Arizona

We now know the 68 tournament teams, but who should have made it?  Below is the answer according to my computer.

The bold teams are the teams that won their conference tournament or received the automatic bid.  I've then filled in the rest of the 68 team field based on the highest rating by my computer.  I've then highlighted in red those teams that did not make the field.

There are 5 that have an argument for being left out, the highest rated of those being Miami-FL.  Yes, they were just 19-12, but West Virginia was 19-13 and had only a slightly tougher schedule.

Drexel is 27-6 and my computer likes them enough, but the committee must have dinged them for their weak schedule.

My computer also likes Tennessee enough but 17-14 just wasn't good enough despite the strong schedule.

Seton Hall has a decent gripe with 20 wins and a strong enough schedule.

And Arizona would be my computer's last at-large team with 23 wins and a decent schedule.

Who made it in that shouldn't have?

Southern Miss is in as a #9 seed, so no where near the bubble, and they have a nice looking 23-8 record, but my computer ranks them only #67, well back of the #52 that Arizona, my last at-large is at.  A #9 seed is certainly too high.

Xavier made it in as a #10 seed, also not close to the bubble, and is closer to making it on my list at #56, but too should have been left out or certainly not a #10 seed.

Colorado State ranks only #71 on my computer but somehow got a #11 seed.

BYU eked in as a #14 seed and has to play a first round game and at #54, just two spots behind #52 Arizona, one can make the argument this was ok.

And Iona, BYU's opponent in that first round game also received a #14 seed and at #57 is also close enough to justify it.

Now, just because a team made it my computer said shouldn't doesn't mean they won't win a round or two.  Anything can happen in a given game, and in the case of Southern Miss, Xavier, and Colorado State, they actually get a high enough seed that they don't have to face as strong an opponent.  But it doesn't change the fact that particularly Miami and Drexel should have made it in.


Thoughts on these teams being omitted and eking in?

More to come.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kentucky	87.688	32-2	73.497	+0, -1.560
2	Michigan St	86.530	27-7	75.276	+2, +0.691
3	Ohio State	86.306	27-7	74.682	+2, +0.614
4	North Carolina	85.856	29-5	73.825	-2, -1.013
5	Kansas	85.262	27-6	75.069	-2, -0.849
6	Missouri	85.045	30-4	72.937	+1, +1.224
7	Syracuse	84.534	31-2	73.480	-1, -0.672
8	Memphis	83.226	26-8	72.864	+3, +0.904
9	Wichita St	82.856	26-5	71.967	-1, -0.208
10	Indiana	82.468	25-8	73.863	-1, -0.476
11	Vanderbilt	82.145	24-10	74.450	+9, +1.286
12	Baylor	82.034	26-7	74.585	+2, +0.206
13	Duke	81.894	27-6	75.163	-3, -0.590
14	Wisconsin	81.863	24-9	74.377	-1, -0.104
15	Louisville	81.710	26-9	74.378	+9, +1.650
16	Marquette	81.507	25-7	74.091	-4, -0.676
17	Georgetown DC	81.154	22-8	74.322	+1, -0.023
18	New Mexico	81.052	26-6	70.889	+3, +0.656
19	St Louis U.	81.045	24-7	71.787	-4, -0.659
20	Florida	80.995	23-10	74.278	-1, +0.095
21	Kansas St	80.694	21-10	74.094	-4, -0.510
22	Michigan	80.591	23-9	75.411	-6, -0.790
23	Florida St	80.452	24-9	74.404	+9, +1.144
24	Gonzaga	79.856	25-6	70.251	-2, -0.473
25	Iowa St	79.674	22-10	73.698	-2, -0.572
26	Creighton	79.586	28-5	71.435	+0, -0.167
27	Belmont	79.528	26-7	69.833	+1, -0.041
28	Murray St	79.477	27-1	68.534	+1, -0.059
29	UNLV	79.171	24-8	71.982	-4, -0.654
30	Texas	79.159	20-13	74.756	+1, -0.324
31	Virginia	79.124	22-9	71.795	-1, -0.371
32	Temple	79.075	24-7	73.768	-5, -0.650
33	Long Beach St	79.049	23-8	70.979	+3, +0.152
34	Cincinnati	79.012	24-10	72.603	+4, +0.461
35	Purdue	78.998	21-12	74.341	-1, -0.265
36	Alabama	78.952	21-11	74.083	-3, -0.322
37	St Mary's CA	78.593	25-5	69.489	+2, +0.106
38	Connecticut	78.463	20-13	74.596	+4, +0.505
39	California	78.369	24-9	71.122	-4, -0.881
40	Notre Dame	78.366	22-11	73.470	-3, -0.482
41	Miami FL	78.351	19-12	73.727	-1, -0.061
42	West Virginia	78.091	19-13	74.264	-1, -0.272
43	VA Commonwealth	77.982	28-6	69.791	+0, +0.073
44	San Diego St	77.509	24-7	71.409	+0, -0.208
45	Harvard	77.441	25-4	69.556	+2, -0.028
46	New Mexico St	77.303	24-9	69.409	+13, +0.587
47	Drexel	77.258	27-6	68.492	-1, -0.219
48	Tennessee	77.233	17-14	73.863	-3, -0.348
49	North Carolina St	77.225	22-12	72.929	+12, +0.617
50	Seton Hall	77.192	20-12	73.299	+6, +0.465
51	South Florida	77.171	19-13	74.445	-2, +0.109
52	Arizona	77.147	23-11	71.043	+0, +0.245
53	St Bonaventure	76.847	20-11	71.963	+19, +0.855
59	Ohio U.	76.618	26-7	69.479	-2, -0.101
62	South Dakota St	76.523	25-7	68.956	-4, -0.195
70	Davidson	75.798	24-7	68.300	-2, -0.479
77	Lehigh	75.398	25-7	66.579	+5, +0.352
85	Colorado	74.650	21-11	72.002	+20, +1.047
88	Montana	74.543	23-6	66.465	+2, +0.125
98	Lamar	73.923	21-11	68.848	+16, +0.834
103	Detroit Mercy	73.668	20-13	70.010	+13, +0.635
122	UNC-Asheville	72.509	21-9	67.032	+4, -0.086
125	Loyola-Maryland	72.325	24-8	68.357	+7, +0.096
129	Vermont	72.089	23-11	66.344	+17, +0.635
147	LIU-Brooklyn	71.205	25-8	66.390	+13, +0.591
180	Norfolk St	68.984	24-8	66.027	+1, -0.034
186	Western Kentucky	68.661	15-18	70.000	+19, +0.792
227	Mississippi Valley St	66.609	21-12	66.358	-6, -0.477

College Basketball Week 19 Ratings and Rankings - It is tourney time!

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Kentucky stays a pretty clear #1 but there are some other moves in the top-5, Michigan State and Ohio State jumping ahead of North Carolina and Kansas.

More to come on the tourney, but it is interesting that the computer agrees that Kentucky, Michigan State, and UNC are worthy #1 seeds, but it has Syracuse down at #7, with Ohio State being more worthy by the numbers.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kentucky	87.688	32-2	73.497	+0, -1.560
2	Michigan St	86.530	27-7	75.276	+2, +0.691
3	Ohio State	86.306	27-7	74.682	+2, +0.614
4	North Carolina	85.856	29-5	73.825	-2, -1.013
5	Kansas	85.262	27-6	75.069	-2, -0.849
6	Missouri	85.045	30-4	72.937	+1, +1.224
7	Syracuse	84.534	31-2	73.480	-1, -0.672
8	Memphis	83.226	26-8	72.864	+3, +0.904
9	Wichita St	82.856	26-5	71.967	-1, -0.208
10	Indiana	82.468	25-8	73.863	-1, -0.476
11	Vanderbilt	82.145	24-10	74.450	+9, +1.286
12	Baylor	82.034	26-7	74.585	+2, +0.206
13	Duke	81.894	27-6	75.163	-3, -0.590
14	Wisconsin	81.863	24-9	74.377	-1, -0.104
15	Louisville	81.710	26-9	74.378	+9, +1.650
16	Marquette	81.507	25-7	74.091	-4, -0.676
17	Georgetown DC	81.154	22-8	74.322	+1, -0.023
18	New Mexico	81.052	26-6	70.889	+3, +0.656
19	St Louis U.	81.045	24-7	71.787	-4, -0.659
20	Florida	80.995	23-10	74.278	-1, +0.095
21	Kansas St	80.694	21-10	74.094	-4, -0.510
22	Michigan	80.591	23-9	75.411	-6, -0.790
23	Florida St	80.452	24-9	74.404	+9, +1.144
24	Gonzaga	79.856	25-6	70.251	-2, -0.473
25	Iowa St	79.674	22-10	73.698	-2, -0.572

College Basketball Week 11 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse back to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Syracuse narrowly moves back to #1 this week, but the big moves is at #3 and #4 with two Big-12 teams jumping up.  Florida also makes a big move to #10.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse	87.758	19-0	70.994	+1, +0.620
2	Ohio State	87.573	16-3	71.260	-1, -0.864
3	Baylor	86.516	16-0	70.914	+5, +1.537
4	Missouri	85.618	16-1	68.921	+3, +0.269
5	Kansas	85.347	14-3	72.967	-1, -0.599
6	Michigan St	84.849	15-3	72.436	+0, -0.598
7	Kentucky	84.839	17-1	69.234	-4, -1.645
8	Duke	83.822	15-2	74.771	+2, -0.511
9	North Carolina	83.016	15-3	70.543	-4, -2.626
10	Florida	82.992	14-4	70.749	+9, +1.186
11	St Mary's CA	82.928	15-2	69.369	+3, +0.486
12	UNLV	82.776	14-3	71.908	+0, -0.510
13	Kansas St	82.553	12-4	72.842	-4, -1.966
14	Alabama	81.968	13-4	72.674	+1, -0.169
15	Seton Hall	81.935	15-3	72.016	+5, +0.277
16	Creighton	81.906	16-2	70.969	+7, +0.564
17	Indiana	81.561	15-3	71.643	-6, -2.713
18	Virginia	81.512	14-2	68.068	+9, +0.523
19	West Virginia	81.281	13-5	73.308	+6, +0.256
20	Wichita St	81.221	14-3	71.383	+6, +0.220
21	New Mexico	81.201	14-2	68.828	+9, +0.927
22	Wisconsin	81.188	14-5	71.551	+2, -0.084
23	Brigham Young	81.171	13-4	69.973	+5, +0.517
24	California	81.118	15-4	69.773	-2, -0.385
25	Murray St	81.080	15-0	68.723	-12, -1.760

College Basketball Week 10 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Due to the closeness at the top and a few big wins, there is a swap at the top.  Ohio State thrashed their two opponents and while Syracuse also won two games, they were closer and Ohio State moves to #1. The big mover in the top-10 is Kansas moving to #4 after beating two top-50 teams.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Ohio State	88.437	15-2	70.572	+1, +0.844
2	Syracuse	87.138	17-0	70.351	-1, -0.918
3	Kentucky	86.484	15-1	69.286	+0, -0.372
4	Kansas	85.946	12-3	73.562	+9, +2.330
5	North Carolina	85.642	14-2	69.699	+1, -0.552
6	Michigan St	85.447	14-2	71.777	+1, +0.107
7	Missouri	85.349	14-1	67.605	-3, -1.009
8	Baylor	84.979	14-0	69.745	-3, -1.338
9	Kansas St	84.519	12-2	71.956	+3, +0.850
10	Duke	84.333	13-2	74.441	-1, -0.409
11	Indiana	84.274	15-1	70.890	-3, -0.508
12	UNLV	83.286	14-2	71.621	+4, -0.036
13	Murray St	82.840	13-0	69.995	+2, -0.728
14	St Mary's CA	82.442	12-2	69.837	-3, -1.308
15	Alabama	82.137	12-3	72.252	+12, +1.552
16	Georgetown DC	82.095	12-2	71.516	-2, -1.495
17	Gonzaga	82.089	13-2	70.526	+5, +0.487
18	Michigan	82.061	12-3	70.740	+20, +2.711
19	Florida	81.806	12-4	70.609	-9, -2.130
20	Seton Hall	81.658	14-2	71.459	+6, +0.930
21	St Louis U.	81.587	12-3	68.998	-3, -0.938
22	California	81.503	13-4	70.855	-1, -0.101
23	Creighton	81.342	13-2	70.257	-4, -0.758
24	Wisconsin	81.272	12-5	71.074	-7, -1.868
25	West Virginia	81.025	12-4	72.959	+15, +1.855

Week 9 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Here is the updated projected 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

Differences from last week are that Arizona, Missouri State, Norfolk State, and Vanderbilt replace Denver, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, and Oregon State.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Arizona, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and Marshall.  The first 4 left out are Akron, Minnesota, Washington, and Illinois.

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse*	88.056	15-0	70.033	+3, +0.959
2	Ohio State*	87.593	13-2	70.389	+1, +0.405
3	Kentucky*	86.856	13-1	69.520	+4, +0.701
4	Missouri*	86.358	13-0	65.339	-3, -1.309
5	Baylor	86.317	12-0	70.342	-3, -1.109
6	North Carolina*	86.194	13-2	70.482	+0, -0.435
7	Michigan St	85.340	13-2	70.906	+6, +1.471
8	Indiana	84.782	13-1	69.694	+1, -0.284
9	Duke	84.742	12-1	73.205	+6, +1.012
10	Florida	83.936	11-3	70.480	-2, -1.673
11	St Mary's CA*	83.750	11-2	70.713	+13, +1.397
12	Kansas St	83.669	11-1	69.192	+0, -0.299
13	Kansas	83.616	10-3	72.209	+4, +0.198
14	Georgetown DC	83.590	11-1	69.688	+4, +0.280
15	Murray St*	83.568	11-0	70.409	-1, -0.261
16	UNLV*	83.322	13-2	71.966	-6, -1.508
17	Wisconsin	83.140	12-3	69.682	-12, -3.854
18	St Louis U.*	82.525	11-2	68.393	+3, -0.224
19	Creighton*	82.100	11-2	71.167	+1, -0.765
20	Louisville	82.033	12-2	70.656	-4, -1.393
21	California*	81.604	12-3	70.037	+1, -1.095
22	Gonzaga	81.602	11-2	71.469	+10, +1.398
23	Wichita St	81.393	9-3	71.270	+0, -1.245
24	New Mexico	81.050	11-2	70.465	+22, +1.968
25	Virginia	80.831	12-1	64.966	+0, -1.050
26	Seton Hall	80.728	12-2	70.935	+7, +0.593
27	Alabama	80.585	10-3	71.878	+2, -0.208
28	Brigham Young	80.573	10-4	70.307	-2, -1.232
29	Ohio U.*	80.464	11-1	69.664	-10, -2.737
30	Connecticut	80.410	12-1	69.524	-3, -1.246
31	Marquette	80.302	12-2	70.507	-20, -4.356
32	Oklahoma	80.089	10-2	68.305	+3, -0.004
33	Memphis*	79.947	8-5	74.354	+7, +0.281
34	Long Beach St*	79.676	5-6	79.231	-4, -0.559
35	Harvard*	79.627	11-1	70.630	-4, -0.597
36	Virginia Tech	79.549	11-3	69.965	+16, +0.623
37	Texas	79.385	10-3	68.292	+6, -0.054
38	Michigan	79.350	11-2	68.829	+3, -0.265
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.262	12-2	69.009	+0, -0.441
40	West Virginia	79.170	10-4	72.435	-2, -0.608
41	San Diego St	79.062	11-2	70.162	+7, +0.081
42	Mississippi St	78.984	13-2	68.184	+2, -0.242
43	Missouri St	78.964	8-5	74.177	+32, +3.079
44	St Joseph's PA	78.951	10-4	71.851	+9, +0.318
45	Purdue	78.834	12-3	68.871	+11, +0.538
46	Southern Miss	78.633	11-2	71.230	-9, -1.232
47	Belmont*	78.407	8-5	72.763	+3, -0.528
48	VA Commonwealth*	78.080	10-3	70.204	+11, +0.356
49	Stanford	77.959	12-2	67.456	+2, -0.968
50	Florida St	77.857	8-5	70.937	-14, -2.138
51	Temple	77.851	9-3	73.894	-4, -1.151
52	Marshall	77.838	8-4	72.195	-24, -3.597
53	Northwestern	77.718	11-3	71.159	-4, -1.253
54	Vanderbilt	77.634	9-4	70.838	+19, +1.735
55	Arizona	77.467	10-4	70.550	+11, +0.377
57	Wagner*	77.328	10-3	70.675	+8, +0.159
61	North Dakota St*	77.094	9-3	68.445	+6, +0.158
64	Iona*	76.908	10-3	71.899	-19, -2.239
72	Lehigh*	76.228	10-4	69.007	+4, +0.407
74	New Mexico St*	76.090	8-5	70.522	-20, -2.364
79	Lamar*	75.387	7-5	74.046	-11, -1.442
88	Cleveland St*	74.692	11-3	72.158	-1, -0.303
92	Davidson*	74.407	7-4	73.061	-3, -0.568
113	Weber St*	72.725	8-3	69.256	+9, +0.166
130	Charleston Southern*	71.734	6-4	69.836	-18, -1.401
135	Norfolk St*	71.504	9-4	70.373	-11, -0.939
193	Vermont*	68.462	6-8	69.194	-13, -0.763
250	Mississippi Valley St*	65.295	1-11	79.856	+14, +0.910

College Basketball Week 9 Ratings and Rankings - Syracuse to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

Due to the closeness at the top and a few key games, there are some changes at the top this week.  Syracuse moves to #1 over new #2 Ohio State and new #3 Kentucky.  Last week's #1 Missouri falls to #4 and last week's #2 falls to #5 Baylor.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Syracuse	88.056	15-0	70.033	+3, +0.959
2	Ohio State	87.593	13-2	70.389	+1, +0.405
3	Kentucky	86.856	13-1	69.520	+4, +0.701
4	Missouri	86.358	13-0	65.339	-3, -1.309
5	Baylor	86.317	12-0	70.342	-3, -1.109
6	North Carolina	86.194	13-2	70.482	+0, -0.435
7	Michigan St	85.340	13-2	70.906	+6, +1.471
8	Indiana	84.782	13-1	69.694	+1, -0.284
9	Duke	84.742	12-1	73.205	+6, +1.012
10	Florida	83.936	11-3	70.480	-2, -1.673
11	St Mary's CA	83.750	11-2	70.713	+13, +1.397
12	Kansas St	83.669	11-1	69.192	+0, -0.299
13	Kansas	83.616	10-3	72.209	+4, +0.198
14	Georgetown DC	83.590	11-1	69.688	+4, +0.280
15	Murray St	83.568	11-0	70.409	-1, -0.261
16	UNLV	83.322	13-2	71.966	-6, -1.508
17	Wisconsin	83.140	12-3	69.682	-12, -3.854
18	St Louis U.	82.525	11-2	68.393	+3, -0.224
19	Creighton	82.100	11-2	71.167	+1, -0.765
20	Louisville	82.033	12-2	70.656	-4, -1.393
21	California	81.604	12-3	70.037	+1, -1.095
22	Gonzaga	81.602	11-2	71.469	+10, +1.398
23	Wichita St	81.393	9-3	71.270	+0, -1.245
24	New Mexico	81.050	11-2	70.465	+22, +1.968
25	Virginia	80.831	12-1	64.966	+0, -1.050

Week 8 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Starting with this post, I will be projecting the 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.  Note that I'm doing this a bit late this week and so the ratings used are as of last Sunday so some teams will not have their latest games reflected.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Purdue, Oregon State, St. Joe's, and Virginia Tech.  The first 4 left out are Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Pitt.  The ratings are very close though and with most of the meaningful games left to be played, much could change.  But the key thing is that some teams you might think will make it comfortably like a 10-3 Purdue, 11-2 Illinois, or 11-2 Pitt, are currently right around the bubble due to weaker early schedules (#'s 263, 257, and 290 of 345).

What may also be a surprise is that some teams, like 7-5 Belmont or 7-4 New Mexico State are ranked high enough that they would be in even if they weren't the highest ranked team in their conference.  This is because they have played much tougher schedules early in the year (#'s 58 and 90).

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Missouri*	87.667	12-0	64.260	+0, -3.003
2	Baylor	87.426	11-0	69.896	+2, +0.765
3	Ohio State*	87.188	12-1	68.827	+2, +0.835
4	Syracuse*	87.097	13-0	69.565	-2, -0.672
5	Wisconsin	86.994	11-2	70.326	-2, -0.092
6	North Carolina*	86.629	11-2	72.725	+1, +1.034
7	Kentucky*	86.155	11-1	68.109	-1, +0.265
8	Florida	85.609	10-2	70.241	+6, +1.244
9	Indiana	85.066	12-0	66.027	+2, -0.061
10	UNLV*	84.830	11-2	73.853	+7, +1.515
11	Marquette	84.658	11-1	70.928	+1, -0.284
12	Kansas St	83.968	10-1	70.775	+16, +2.047
13	Michigan St	83.869	11-2	70.225	+0, -0.638
14	Murray St*	83.829	10-0	71.436	-5, -1.351
15	Duke	83.730	10-1	74.494	+0, -0.078
16	Louisville	83.426	12-0	69.137	-8, -1.828
17	Kansas	83.418	8-3	74.405	+4, +0.704
18	Georgetown DC	83.310	9-1	68.083	+4, +0.605
19	Ohio U.*	83.201	10-1	72.170	+10, +1.478
20	Creighton*	82.865	10-1	69.236	-4, -0.779
21	St Louis U.*	82.749	10-1	67.706	-1, +0.030
22	California*	82.699	10-3	70.550	-12, -2.437
23	Wichita St	82.638	8-2	70.955	+2, +0.234
24	St Mary's CA*	82.353	9-2	70.123	-6, -0.888
25	Virginia	81.881	10-1	67.614	-6, -1.139
26	Brigham Young	81.805	9-3	70.255	+8, +0.505
27	Connecticut	81.656	10-1	70.357	-4, -1.012
28	Marshall*	81.435	8-2	71.529	+3, -0.103
29	Alabama	80.793	9-3	72.990	+12, +0.645
30	Long Beach St*	80.235	5-6	79.785	+7, -0.535
31	Harvard*	80.224	9-1	71.502	+1, -1.206
32	Gonzaga	80.204	9-2	71.370	+8, -0.028
33	Seton Hall	80.135	11-1	68.757	+11, +0.310
34	Northern Iowa	80.114	9-2	73.021	-8, -2.202
35	Oklahoma	80.093	9-1	67.831	+0, -0.795
36	Florida St	79.995	8-4	71.742	-6, -1.610
37	Southern Miss	79.865	9-2	73.971	-10, -2.118
38	West Virginia	79.778	9-3	71.407	+4, -0.121
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.703	10-2	69.828	+11, +0.479
40	Memphis	79.666	6-5	75.447	-1, -0.697
41	Michigan	79.615	9-2	69.338	-5, -1.166
42	Denver	79.558	10-2	71.156	-9, -1.822
43	Texas	79.439	9-3	68.362	-5, -1.238
44	Mississippi St	79.226	12-1	66.939	+2, -0.312
45	Iona*	79.147	10-2	72.435	-2, -0.711
46	New Mexico	79.082	9-2	68.894	+5, -0.099
47	Temple	79.002	7-3	74.710	+11, +0.132
48	San Diego St	78.981	11-2	69.660	+0, -0.453
49	Northwestern	78.971	10-2	70.236	+0, -0.342
50	Belmont*	78.935	7-5	73.047	+5, -0.046
51	Stanford	78.927	10-2	67.164	-27, -3.636
52	Virginia Tech	78.926	10-3	69.102	+1, -0.176
53	St Joseph's PA	78.633	9-3	71.772	-8, -1.132
54	New Mexico St*	78.454	7-4	71.860	-2, -0.688
55	Oregon St	78.348	10-2	65.280	+1, -0.580
56	Purdue	78.296	10-3	68.606	+10, +0.825
59	VA Commonwealth*	77.724	9-3	69.554	+4, -0.198
65	Wagner*	77.169	8-3	70.464	+15, +1.023
67	North Dakota St*	76.936	7-3	70.443	+0, -0.520
68	Lamar*	76.829	7-4	73.732	-4, -0.776
76	Lehigh*	75.821	8-4	69.244	+7, -0.066
87	Cleveland St*	74.995	10-2	71.858	+7, -0.277
89	Davidson*	74.975	6-4	74.044	-13, -1.483
112	Charleston Southern*	73.135	5-4	71.328	+19, +0.919
121	Morgan St*	72.610	2-7	75.871	+35, +1.420
122	Weber St*	72.559	6-3	71.089	-6, -0.449
180	Vermont*	69.225	6-7	69.591	+21, +0.372
264	Mississippi Valley St*	64.385	1-10	80.496	+8, -0.193

College Basketball Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - Missouri #1

Now that College Football is in to the bowls and there are fewer games to process, I can spend some time getting the College Basketball ratings going.  This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

With 12 to 13 games played by many teams, there are enough games to get a good idea of where teams rate, and in what is probably a bit of a surprise, Missouri tops the ratings.  They are near the bottom of the top-10 in the polls and my computer's #2 Baylor is also a top-10 team, but the polls top-2 in Syracuse and Ohio State are just my #4 and #3 teams.  But barely more than 0.5 ratings points separates the top-4 so no one has clear separated themselves.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Missouri	87.667	12-0	64.260	+0, -3.003
2	Baylor	87.426	11-0	69.896	+2, +0.765
3	Ohio State	87.188	12-1	68.827	+2, +0.835
4	Syracuse	87.097	13-0	69.565	-2, -0.672
5	Wisconsin	86.994	11-2	70.326	-2, -0.092
6	North Carolina	86.629	11-2	72.725	+1, +1.034
7	Kentucky	86.155	11-1	68.109	-1, +0.265
8	Florida	85.609	10-2	70.241	+6, +1.244
9	Indiana	85.066	12-0	66.027	+2, -0.061
10	UNLV	84.830	11-2	73.853	+7, +1.515
11	Marquette	84.658	11-1	70.928	+1, -0.284
12	Kansas St	83.968	10-1	70.775	+16, +2.047
13	Michigan St	83.869	11-2	70.225	+0, -0.638
14	Murray St	83.829	10-0	71.436	-5, -1.351
15	Duke	83.730	10-1	74.494	+0, -0.078
16	Louisville	83.426	12-0	69.137	-8, -1.828
17	Kansas	83.418	8-3	74.405	+4, +0.704
18	Georgetown DC	83.310	9-1	68.083	+4, +0.605
19	Ohio U.	83.201	10-1	72.170	+10, +1.478
20	Creighton	82.865	10-1	69.236	-4, -0.779
21	St Louis U.	82.749	10-1	67.706	-1, +0.030
22	California	82.699	10-3	70.550	-12, -2.437
23	Wichita St	82.638	8-2	70.955	+2, +0.234
24	St Mary's CA	82.353	9-2	70.123	-6, -0.888
25	Virginia	81.881	10-1	67.614	-6, -1.139

March Madness Pre-Tournament Rankings

College basketball takes a lot more time to do rankings for so all of you have probably noticed the silence on this blog.  But with the NCAA Basketball Tournament starting shortly I had to make the time to get current rankings through the games played Sunday the 13th.

So here they are.  And it is interesting to make a few observations.

The 1 seeds are the top-4 in my rankings so things line up there but things aren't so clear with the 2's.  Only San Diego State should be a 2 with Notre Dame close at #9 but UNC and Florida are way down at #15 and #18.  Are they the 2's most likely to lose early?

Who was robbed?  Texas should be a 2 but is only a 4, Kentucky the same, and Purdue is close as a 3.

I'll be filling out a bracket using these rankings so lets see how they do compared to other polls and systems.  Stay tuned.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Ohio State	78.137	32-2	64.392	+0, -0.628
2	Kansas	76.971	32-2	64.229	+0, -0.146
3	Duke	76.699	30-4	64.348	+2, +1.032
4	Pittsburgh	75.354	27-5	64.387	-1, -0.491
5	Texas	75.077	27-7	64.243	+1, -0.233
6	San Diego St	74.793	30-2	64.132	+3, +0.885
7	Kentucky	74.308	25-8	64.312	+4, +1.008
8	Purdue	74.246	25-7	65.138	-4, -1.496
9	Notre Dame	73.599	26-6	65.037	+4, +0.518
10	Brigham Young	73.524	29-4	63.562	-3, -1.172
11	Wisconsin	73.326	23-8	65.185	-3, -0.631
12	Louisville	73.324	25-9	64.647	+3, +0.981
13	Syracuse	73.201	26-7	65.100	-1, -0.089
14	Connecticut	72.891	26-9	66.186	+9, +1.747
15	North Carolina	72.527	26-7	65.738	-5, -0.783
16	Washington	71.866	23-10	64.017	+3, +0.026
17	Cincinnati	71.729	25-8	63.064	-3, -0.775
18	Florida	71.693	26-7	63.971	+0, -0.156
19	West Virginia	71.635	20-11	67.199	-2, -0.495
20	Utah St	71.592	29-3	60.057	-4, -0.651
21	Georgetown DC	70.648	21-10	67.289	-1, -0.822
22	Illinois	70.603	19-13	65.930	+0, -0.553
23	Marquette	70.442	21-14	64.803	+3, -0.039
24	Kansas St	70.380	21-10	64.533	-3, -0.963
25	UNLV	70.204	24-8	63.504	+5, -0.011
26	Arizona	70.039	27-7	63.527	+3, -0.186
26	Clemson	70.039	21-11	62.884	+9, +0.387
28	Belmont	69.954	30-4	57.324	+3, -0.190
29	St John's NY	69.915	21-12	66.456	-4, -0.745
30	George Mason	69.831	26-6	60.307	+2, -0.214
30	Temple	69.831	25-7	61.952	+4, -0.133
32	Xavier OH	69.697	24-7	62.283	-5, -0.602
33	Missouri	69.647	22-10	63.031	-9, -1.284
34	Villanova	69.616	21-11	65.280	-6, -0.621
35	Richmond	69.172	27-7	60.997	+4, +0.538
36	Vanderbilt	69.157	23-10	63.424	-3, -0.832
37	Michigan	68.998	19-13	65.780	+3, +0.425
38	Texas A&M	68.926	23-8	62.729	+3, +0.439
39	Gonzaga	68.696	23-9	61.071	+5, +0.491
40	New Mexico	68.440	20-12	62.899	-3, -0.312
41	Virginia Tech	68.426	21-11	63.420	+1, +0.019
42	Penn St	68.381	19-14	66.637	+19, +1.077
43	Butler	68.364	22-9	62.221	+3, +0.360
44	Florida St	68.360	21-10	63.076	-6, -0.289
45	Southern Cal	68.322	19-14	64.565	+0, +0.158
46	Michigan St	68.237	18-14	67.010	+2, +0.413
47	Old Dominion	68.200	27-6	60.885	-4, -0.081
48	UCLA	67.983	22-10	63.630	-12, -1.363
49	Colorado	67.945	20-13	63.246	+8, +0.537
50	Oakland	67.643	24-9	60.636	+17, +0.769
51	Washington St	67.638	19-12	63.319	-1, -0.149
52	St Mary's CA	67.410	23-8	60.545	-5, -0.440
53	Harvard	67.332	21-6	60.200	-2, -0.286
54	Seton Hall	67.321	13-18	66.252	-5, -0.469
55	Nebraska	67.239	19-12	61.482	-3, -0.357
56	Tennessee	67.223	19-14	64.770	-2, -0.344
57	New Orleans	67.126	7-2	58.604	+1, -0.225
58	Northwestern	67.096	18-13	64.159	+12, +0.602
59	Alabama	67.077	21-11	61.008	+3, -0.194
60	Maryland	67.075	19-14	62.562	+0, -0.254
61	Iona	66.937	22-11	59.324	-8, -0.634
62	Miami FL	66.828	19-14	63.581	+7, +0.245
63	Georgia	66.815	21-11	62.975	+1, -0.318
64	Wichita St	66.794	23-8	58.827	+1, -0.163
65	Alabama-Birmingham	66.744	22-8	61.088	-9, -0.697
66	Duquesne	66.669	17-12	60.949	-11, -0.799
67	Cleveland St	66.569	24-8	61.212	+1, -0.141
68	Boston College	66.431	20-12	63.858	-9, -0.902
69	California	66.422	17-14	64.987	-6, -0.774
70	Minnesota	66.384	17-14	65.450	-4, -0.536
71	UTEP	66.292	24-9	59.888	+0, +0.059
72	Oklahoma St	66.034	19-13	63.776	+5, +0.417
73	Southern Miss	65.936	19-10	60.792	-1, -0.086
74	Colorado St	65.706	18-12	63.591	-1, -0.270
75	Rutgers	65.547	15-17	64.781	+5, +0.600
76	Marshall	65.497	20-11	61.239	-2, -0.384
77	Princeton	65.420	24-6	59.977	+5, +0.557
78	VA Commonwealth	65.348	23-11	61.391	-2, -0.306
79	Bucknell	65.078	25-8	58.571	+2, +0.135
80	Missouri St	65.049	25-8	59.669	-1, -0.170
81	Coll of Charleston	65.041	24-10	59.275	-6, -0.769
82	Mississippi	64.861	20-13	61.453	+3, +0.232
83	Boise St	64.753	19-12	60.471	+6, +0.389
84	Morehead St	64.457	22-9	58.052	+0, -0.235
85	Tulsa	64.433	19-13	61.474	+1, -0.156
86	Baylor	64.417	17-13	62.053	-8, -1.049
87	Memphis	64.253	25-9	60.887	+17, +1.136
88	Valparaiso	64.248	21-11	60.984	+0, -0.241
89	Wofford	64.179	21-12	59.176	+3, +0.326
90	LIU-Brooklyn	64.171	27-5	56.758	-3, -0.388
91	Long Beach St	64.120	20-11	61.379	-8, -0.610
92	Iowa St	63.874	16-16	62.116	-2, -0.144
93	Fairfield	63.732	24-7	57.681	+0, -0.064
94	Oregon	63.675	15-17	63.517	+12, +0.753
95	Virginia	63.626	16-15	62.458	-4, -0.374
96	James Madison	63.535	21-11	60.575	-2, -0.181
97	Indiana	63.400	12-20	64.085	+0, -0.263
98	Dayton	63.324	22-13	61.800	+11, +0.447
99	Kent St	63.266	22-11	59.552	+16, +0.534
100	Portland	63.246	20-11	60.900	+1, -0.059
101	Providence RI	63.186	15-17	63.540	-5, -0.492
102	Iowa	63.172	11-20	64.682	-3, -0.205
102	Stanford	63.172	15-16	62.431	-7, -0.511
104	Rider	63.076	23-10	58.852	-2, -0.203
105	North Carolina St	62.997	15-16	63.208	-7, -0.393
106	Air Force	62.961	14-14	62.786	-6, -0.382
107	Texas Tech	62.861	13-19	62.941	+5, +0.062
108	Drexel	62.775	21-10	60.580	-1, -0.124
109	Georgia Tech	62.750	13-18	62.834	-6, -0.514
109	St Peter's	62.750	20-13	60.341	+13, +0.275
111	Coastal Carolina	62.621	24-5	56.068	+0, -0.239
112	Arkansas	62.617	18-13	60.086	-2, -0.251
113	East Tennessee St	62.615	21-11	59.071	+0, -0.156
114	Montana	62.529	19-10	58.959	+13, +0.207
115	Creighton	62.427	19-14	59.152	+5, -0.116
116	Indiana St	62.424	19-13	61.059	+1, -0.233
117	Northern Colorado	62.414	19-10	58.559	-1, -0.258
118	Wright St	62.407	17-14	60.934	+0, -0.185
119	UW-Milwaukee	62.317	19-13	61.779	-14, -0.708
120	Oral Roberts	62.291	19-15	59.734	-1, -0.296
121	Akron	62.260	22-12	58.678	+16, +0.579
122	Hofstra	62.258	20-11	60.737	-1, -0.236
123	Mississippi St	62.240	17-14	60.937	+1, -0.159
124	UC-Santa Barbara	62.222	16-13	60.132	+31, +1.515
125	Northern Iowa	62.135	18-13	60.365	+1, -0.198
126	South Florida	62.121	10-23	65.863	+2, -0.121
127	Buffalo	62.036	17-13	58.317	-13, -0.702
128	Northern Arizona	62.032	17-12	58.240	+3, -0.119
129	Oklahoma	62.018	14-17	63.503	+15, +0.715
130	Central Florida	62.011	18-11	60.549	-22, -0.870
131	Murray St	61.975	21-8	56.776	-1, -0.197
132	Rhode Island	61.839	19-13	61.091	+0, -0.237
133	Detroit Mercy	61.800	16-16	61.112	+1, -0.183
134	South Dakota St	61.743	17-12	57.538	-11, -0.724
135	Arizona St	61.723	12-19	64.163	-6, -0.496
136	Idaho	61.713	17-13	59.923	-11, -0.671
137	Winston-Salem	61.480	16-8	59.378	-1, -0.322
138	New Mexico St	61.469	14-17	61.859	-5, -0.555
139	IUPUI	61.409	17-14	60.666	-4, -0.478
140	UNC-Asheville	61.347	16-13	58.460	+0, -0.234
141	Utah	61.339	12-18	64.729	+1, -0.196
142	East Carolina	61.312	15-15	61.666	+12, +0.522
143	Vermont	61.304	23-8	56.754	+0, -0.218
144	St Louis U.	61.257	11-19	61.743	-6, -0.411
145	Austin Peay	61.067	18-13	58.709	+0, -0.180
146	South Carolina	61.057	14-16	62.716	-7, -0.583
147	San Francisco	61.016	15-14	61.720	+2, -0.001
148	Furman	60.991	20-10	58.129	-2, -0.239
149	St Bonaventure	60.977	16-14	61.069	-8, -0.570
150	Ohio U.	60.794	18-15	58.296	-3, -0.395
151	Santa Clara	60.789	17-14	59.551	+0, -0.072
152	Nevada	60.746	12-19	61.477	+1, -0.046
153	Robert Morris PA	60.726	18-14	60.025	+3, +0.036
154	Central Connecticut St	60.631	19-12	57.019	-2, -0.205
155	SMU	60.511	14-14	58.190	+2, -0.092
156	Hawaii	60.509	17-12	58.780	-6, -0.374
157	Loyola-Chicago	60.330	16-15	59.036	+1, -0.173
158	Lipscomb	60.226	16-13	59.257	+3, -0.166
159	Rice	60.163	12-18	61.097	+4, -0.202
160	American U.	60.162	22-9	57.596	+1, -0.230
161	George Washington	60.007	17-14	59.878	-13, -1.053
162	Quinnipiac	59.998	22-9	55.914	+5, -0.190
163	UW-Green Bay	59.969	13-18	61.997	+3, -0.245
164	Western Michigan	59.856	19-12	57.842	+1, -0.392
165	Pacific CA	59.848	14-15	60.252	-6, -0.646
166	Davidson	59.835	16-14	58.835	+3, -0.243
167	Cal Poly SLO	59.752	15-14	59.367	-7, -0.684
168	Oregon St	59.727	11-20	62.366	+8, +0.064
169	La Salle	59.610	15-18	60.410	+3, -0.184
170	Boston U.	59.560	21-13	57.545	+4, -0.201
171	Fresno St	59.535	13-17	60.594	-3, -0.621
172	North Texas	59.515	20-11	56.336	+11, +0.316
173	TCU	59.473	11-22	62.445	+12, +0.342
174	Jacksonville FL	59.470	18-11	57.932	+3, -0.181
175	Miami OH	59.405	15-16	62.383	-2, -0.371
176	Sam Houston St	59.393	14-13	57.685	+2, -0.086
177	Ball St	59.380	18-12	57.643	-6, -0.419
178	San Jose St	59.350	16-15	60.288	+12, +0.638
179	Weber St	59.265	15-13	59.367	-15, -1.085
180	North Dakota St	59.228	12-15	58.082	-1, -0.219
181	Pennsylvania	59.142	13-15	60.215	-6, -0.612
182	Florida Atlantic	59.118	19-10	58.538	-2, -0.199
183	Massachusetts	59.105	14-15	60.940	-13, -0.889
184	Lehigh	59.097	16-15	58.077	-2, -0.150
185	Yale	59.072	14-13	59.554	-4, -0.229
186	Cornell NY	58.894	10-18	60.350	+0, -0.181
187	Canisius	58.892	15-15	58.599	+0, -0.170
188	St Joseph's PA	58.884	11-22	62.841	+19, +1.318
189	Loyola-Maryland	58.849	15-15	58.621	-1, -0.153
190	Arkansas St	58.702	15-15	58.081	+1, +0.053
191	Evansville	58.686	14-15	60.569	-2, -0.222
192	McNeese St	58.386	17-11	56.667	+5, +0.121
193	Middle Tennessee St	58.359	15-16	56.782	-9, -0.778
194	IPFW	58.342	17-12	57.125	-2, -0.292
195	Northeastern	58.248	11-20	61.371	-2, -0.209
196	Western Carolina	58.219	17-15	58.979	-2, -0.178
197	St Francis NY	58.078	15-15	57.249	-1, -0.208
198	Hampton	58.012	23-8	53.632	+13, +0.554
199	Bradley	57.914	11-20	59.921	+2, -0.176
200	Columbia NY	57.911	14-13	58.381	-1, -0.207
201	DePaul	57.846	7-24	64.477	-3, -0.354
202	Tulane	57.813	10-17	59.341	-7, -0.488
203	VMI	57.751	14-13	57.233	-1, -0.172
204	Tennessee Tech	57.624	17-12	56.670	-1, -0.200
205	Lafayette	57.601	12-19	59.171	-5, -0.499
206	Delaware	57.402	14-17	61.047	-1, -0.230
207	Mercer	57.364	14-18	58.565	+1, -0.194
208	Liberty	57.352	16-13	57.508	+1, -0.197
209	Maine	57.270	14-15	56.879	+1, -0.220
210	Charleston Southern	57.225	12-16	57.897	+2, -0.221
211	Loyola Marymount	57.200	9-21	60.007	+6, -0.089
212	North Florida	57.193	15-19	61.150	+1, -0.217
213	Appalachian St	57.180	14-15	58.769	+1, -0.192
214	Winthrop	57.172	11-17	58.673	+2, -0.161
215	William & Mary	57.158	9-22	60.977	+0, -0.212
216	Texas-San Antonio	57.148	16-13	56.671	+21, +0.796
217	CSU-Northridge	57.145	12-18	59.672	+1, -0.108
218	Siena	57.112	13-18	59.615	+1, -0.134
219	Arkansas-Little Rock	57.074	17-16	57.871	+17, +0.567
220	Drake	57.012	13-18	59.444	+0, -0.212
221	Charlotte	56.996	10-20	61.331	+1, -0.188
222	UNC-Wilmington	56.963	13-18	59.683	-2, -0.261
223	Holy Cross MA	56.875	8-21	58.759	+0, -0.229
224	Western Kentucky	56.859	16-16	57.754	-20, -0.783
225	Stephen F. Austin	56.854	14-11	54.989	-19, -0.760
226	UC-Irvine	56.825	12-19	58.832	-1, -0.168
227	Georgia St	56.756	12-19	59.032	-1, -0.210
228	Houston	56.723	10-18	59.988	-1, -0.168
229	Wagner	56.659	13-17	59.634	+0, -0.124
230	Pepperdine	56.618	11-21	60.796	+0, -0.124
231	Bowling Green	56.597	13-19	58.602	+0, -0.102
232	Auburn	56.564	10-20	59.664	-8, -0.434
233	Stony Brook	56.548	14-17	56.850	+2, +0.040
234	Denver	56.502	13-17	57.322	-1, -0.070
235	Louisiana-Lafayette	56.476	13-14	57.231	-3, -0.185
236	Wyoming	56.319	8-21	62.004	-8, -0.519
237	Southern Illinois	56.273	13-19	59.929	-3, -0.236
238	Brown	56.149	10-17	58.816	+0, -0.195
239	LSU	55.901	11-21	60.107	+2, -0.130
240	Louisiana Tech	55.889	11-20	60.002	+0, -0.199
241	UC-Davis	55.833	8-20	59.355	-2, -0.259
242	Albany NY	55.800	16-16	56.948	+1, -0.196
243	Tennessee St	55.759	12-16	58.077	-1, -0.264
244	Mt St Mary's MD	55.648	11-21	59.468	+3, -0.145
245	Eastern Kentucky	55.640	13-16	56.527	+0, -0.210
246	Elon	55.594	11-17	58.203	+0, -0.241
247	Morgan St	55.541	17-14	55.143	+16, +0.655
248	Lamar	55.475	9-17	56.833	+4, -0.085
249	Illinois St	55.442	12-19	58.036	+0, -0.190
250	Montana St	55.393	11-18	58.889	+0, -0.236
251	Nicholls St	55.312	10-14	57.699	+0, -0.311
252	Presbyterian	55.244	13-18	59.595	+2, -0.212
253	Texas St-San Marcos	55.219	14-15	55.993	+3, -0.094
254	SE Louisiana St	55.133	12-14	57.250	-1, -0.347
255	Utah Valley St	55.120	15-11	53.181	-11, -0.830
256	Coppin St	55.018	13-14	55.660	-8, -0.737
257	Southern Utah	54.939	10-18	57.821	+1, -0.223
258	Navy	54.887	10-20	58.021	-1, -0.284
259	Northwestern St	54.871	16-13	55.358	+3, -0.032
260	Illinois-Chicago	54.861	6-24	61.705	-1, -0.231
261	Chattanooga	54.760	14-16	58.706	+0, -0.195
262	Eastern Washington	54.718	8-20	59.374	-2, -0.246
263	Savannah St	54.714	8-18	60.307	+10, +0.488
264	Gardner-Webb	54.559	9-21	59.874	+0, -0.171
265	CSU-Fullerton	54.498	10-20	58.678	-10, -0.821
266	Texas-Arlington	54.472	9-16	57.205	+1, -0.030
267	Sacred Heart	54.462	11-18	57.300	-2, -0.199
268	UC-Riverside	54.372	10-19	59.930	+9, +0.302
269	Campbell	54.301	11-19	57.429	-1, -0.189
270	Portland St	54.255	13-16	57.033	+12, +0.467
271	St Francis PA	54.247	9-21	59.403	-2, -0.200
272	Youngstown St	54.214	7-21	60.949	-1, -0.187
273	UMKC	54.180	15-14	57.045	-3, -0.264
274	Wake Forest	53.875	8-24	62.165	+1, -0.249
275	Monmouth NJ	53.807	9-21	57.892	+3, -0.173
276	Central Michigan	53.787	9-21	58.587	-2, -0.396
277	Seattle U.	53.629	11-20	58.916	-11, -1.019
278	Army	53.595	10-19	57.857	+2, -0.227
279	Texas Southern	53.591	19-12	54.483	-7, -0.714
280	Troy	53.574	7-21	59.347	+1, -0.220
281	Hartford	53.385	11-20	57.064	+2, -0.394
282	The Citadel	53.346	8-22	58.855	+4, -0.165
283	Bethune-Cookman	53.254	17-12	54.577	-4, -0.578
284	Northern Illinois	53.226	8-21	58.538	-9, -0.898
285	Florida Gulf Coast	53.217	10-20	58.115	+2, -0.236
286	Alabama St	53.165	15-17	53.596	+24, +1.272
287	Towson	53.125	4-26	60.438	+1, -0.206
288	Florida Int'l	53.024	9-19	57.234	+0, -0.307
289	Jackson St	53.008	15-15	53.797	-4, -0.567
289	UNC-Greensboro	53.008	7-24	59.519	+1, -0.166
291	New Hampshire	52.786	11-18	57.125	+2, -0.204
292	Fordham	52.748	7-21	61.137	+2, -0.219
293	Eastern Michigan	52.713	6-22	58.236	-2, -0.353
294	South Dakota	52.678	14-15	53.021	+2, -0.135
295	Niagara NY	52.620	9-23	59.144	+0, -0.201
296	San Diego	52.612	4-24	61.615	+1, -0.179
297	Norfolk St	52.580	12-20	56.043	-5, -0.448
298	North Carolina A&T	52.492	12-17	57.007	-14, -1.116
299	SE Missouri St	52.446	9-22	57.481	-1, -0.202
300	South Alabama	52.391	10-16	56.899	+1, -0.167
301	Jacksonville St	52.368	4-25	57.789	-1, -0.214
302	Tennessee-Martin	52.229	10-21	57.724	+0, -0.188
303	Bryant	52.154	8-21	59.532	+1, -0.190
304	Idaho St	52.088	7-20	59.726	+1, -0.249
305	North Dakota	51.994	15-14	54.047	-6, -0.618
306	Stetson	51.987	8-22	58.485	+0, -0.127
307	Manhattan	51.773	6-25	59.761	+2, -0.180
308	High Point	51.765	10-19	58.172	+0, -0.214
309	Eastern Illinois	51.748	7-20	57.558	-2, -0.259
310	Colgate	51.623	7-23	58.682	+2, -0.206
311	North Carolina Central	51.246	11-15	55.655	-8, -1.120
312	Binghamton	51.164	8-23	57.596	+4, -0.194
313	New Jersey Tech	51.157	11-15	53.874	-2, -0.681
314	CSU-Bakersfield	51.147	9-19	58.371	+1, -0.237
315	Mississippi Valley St	51.123	13-19	56.213	-2, -0.573
316	Samford	51.020	10-19	57.545	+1, -0.168
317	Marist	50.790	6-27	60.056	+1, -0.180
318	Sacramento St	50.605	5-21	58.189	+1, -0.204
319	Delaware St	50.580	7-21	57.415	-5, -0.865
320	Kennesaw St	50.575	7-23	58.222	+1, -0.158
321	TAMU-Corpus Christi	50.510	7-21	59.237	+1, -0.069
322	Longwood	50.367	8-19	58.392	+1, -0.208
323	Dartmouth	50.103	5-23	59.851	+1, -0.201
324	Alabama A&M	49.777	10-15	52.847	-4, -0.972
325	Fairleigh Dickinson	49.753	5-24	57.882	+0, -0.164
326	SC-Upstate	49.733	5-25	60.164	+0, -0.179
327	Louisiana-Monroe	48.966	5-24	57.724	+1, -0.137
328	Florida A&M	48.670	8-20	55.271	-1, -0.651
329	Grambling St	48.232	12-21	53.945	+1, +0.119
330	South Carolina St	48.193	6-22	54.907	-1, -0.613
331	Radford	47.639	2-24	59.805	+1, -0.213
332	MD-Eastern Shore	47.477	7-22	56.229	-1, -0.596
333	Toledo	47.427	3-28	59.408	+0, -0.326
334	Georgia Southern	47.315	2-27	58.478	+1, -0.195
335	Prairie View A&M	47.191	7-22	55.101	-1, -0.551
336	Western Illinois	47.157	4-23	57.833	+0, -0.202
337	MD-Baltimore County	46.895	5-25	58.263	+0, -0.196
338	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	46.398	7-24	56.244	+0, -0.159
339	Texas-Pan American	45.743	3-25	55.834	+1, +0.121
340	Howard	45.559	6-24	55.426	-1, -0.883
341	Houston Baptist	45.385	5-24	54.267	+1, +0.529
342	Central Arkansas	45.322	2-24	57.273	-1, -0.093
343	SIU-Edwardsville	44.503	4-21	58.057	+0, -0.210
344	Alcorn St	43.737	4-24	56.179	+0, -0.220
345	Centenary LA	43.193	1-27	59.215	+0, -0.224
346	Chicago St	42.732	4-25	57.227	+0, +0.172
347	Southern U.	41.447	3-24	54.299	+0, -0.219